Pat Brown compares Lisa case to other cases.

[Sabot]

BBMG
So how does having one former police commander indorsing Pat Brown mean that "LE in the US holds ms brown in great esteem"? The fact that they both were on the same show would suggest to me that they are two talking heads that will promote each other when necessary. JMO.

Did Pat Brown actually say anything of any importance re Profiling during that Programme? If so, I must have missed it. Nancy Grace cut her off before she hardly opened her mouth. Very sensible, if you ask me.

 

[Whisperer]

Aritcle written on Oct 8, 2011.

It was 278 babies; I thought it was 238 (going from memory). Report was done by Ernie Allen, president of missing and exploited children. He was quoted in the link below.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700186327/Family-of-missing-baby-setting-up-reward.html?pg=all

...also in this article, you will take note that DB and JI didn't even go the the police dept on the 8th of Oct, 2011, they talked by telephone. This was news to me...as I was led to believe that the parents were at the station. This reduces the actual number of times LE has seen the parents face-to-face.

This article and its stats gives credence to Pat Brown and her theory regarding the abduction of Lisa Irwin. If Lisa was taken by strangers, she would have been located by now. As most BABIES who are abducted are located. Most are killed by the parent/s and seldom is a stranger and the baby not located. In fact only one out of 278 in the U.S has NOT been located.

The stats give credence to Pat Brown and her theory.

 

[redheadedgal]

Did Pat Brown actually say anything of any importance re Profiling during that Programme? If so, I must have missed it.

if you read the transcript thoroughly you'd know what she said about pedophiles' preferences (either girls or boys) and "dumping grounds" and what she theorized that meant about the perp

 

[4Jacy]

...also in this article, you will take note that DB and JI didn't even go the the police dept on the 8th of Oct, 2011, they talked by telephone. This was news to me...as I was led to believe that the parents were at the station. This reduces the actual number of times LE has seen the parents face-to-face.

This article and its stats gives credence to Pat Brown and her theory regarding the abduction of Lisa Irwin. If Lisa was taken by strangers, she would have been located by now. As most BABIES who are abducted are located. Most are killed by the parent/s and seldom is a stranger and the baby not located. In fact only one out of 278 in the U.S has NOT been located.

The stats give credence to Pat Brown and her theory.

BBM

Oh my God! I didn't know that either, thanks Whisp!

 

[RANCH]

Aritcle written on Oct 8, 2011.

It was 278 babies; I thought it was 238 (going from memory). Report was done by Ernie Allen, president of missing and exploited children. He was quoted in the link below.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700186327/Family-of-missing-baby-setting-up-reward.html?pg=all

In the link that you provided there are these statements dated Oct 8th 2011.

Allen said his organization has handled 278 infant abduction cases during his nearly three decades with the group. Only 13 cases involved a stranger coming into a home and taking a baby, and all but one of those children were recovered unharmed.

I went to the NCMEC website and found more current information that shows the 13 cases involving a stranger coming into a home and talking a baby is way off. This information shows that between 1983 and 2012, 116 out of 287 infant abductions by non-family members were taken from homes.

HOMES: 116 (40%) Located = 112
Missing = 4

That's 40% of the total of all non-family infant abductions. I don't know how the AP reporter who wrote the article came up with only 13 but it's not even close. The number could even be a bit higher for infants up to Lisa's age because the stats listed are only for infants between birth and 6 months of age.

Now it does show that out of the 116 abducted infants 112 were located which is great. I wonder how many of these 112 took over a year to be located? Hopefully Lisa will be on the located list soon.

So we see that this article has some misinformation in it. I think that next we need to see if the statement of Capt. Steve Young about the phone interview is accurate or not.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700186327/Family-of-missing-baby-setting-up-reward.html?pg=all

http://www.ncmec.org/en_US/documents/InfantAbductionStats.pdf

 

[RANCH]

...also in this article, you will take note that DB and JI didn't even go the the police dept on the 8th of Oct, 2011, they talked by telephone. This was news to me...as I was led to believe that the parents were at the station. This reduces the actual number of times LE has seen the parents face-to-face.

This article and its stats gives credence to Pat Brown and her theory regarding the abduction of Lisa Irwin. If Lisa was taken by strangers, she would have been located by now. As most BABIES who are abducted are located. Most are killed by the parent/s and seldom is a stranger and the baby not located. In fact only one out of 278 in the U.S has NOT been located.

The stats give credence to Pat Brown and her theory.

BBM
I found an updated version of the same AP article that says this.

Police say the parents of a missing 10-month-old Kansas City girl are meeting with detectives, two days after investigators said the couple had stopped cooperating.

Police spokesman Capt. Steve Young says the parents of Lisa Irwin sat down with investigators Saturday afternoon.

THIS IS A BREAKING NEWS UPDATE. Check back soon for further information. AP's earlier story is below.

It appears that the AP reporter may have misunderstood something or was just having a bad day. JMO.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2011...o-baby-meeting-with-police/?ap&page=1#article

 

[redheadedgal]

the AP reporter DID NOT get it wrong. he quoted stats from ernie allen, the president of NCMEC, who gave stats for cases HIS organization (NCMEC) worked on (see the quote you inserted into your own post). the other study incorportates info from other organizations. also, ernie allen's stats include only those cases where a bona-fide stranger took the baby which is not necessarily the case for the second study linked. "non-family" there means not a parent or guardian... which does not mean "stranger". if i missed the descriptor of "stranger" somewhere, please correct me...

to me this second study/comparison reads like trying to compare an apple to well, anything else but an apple...

 

[RANCH]

the AP reporter DID NOT get it wrong. he quoted stats from ernie allen, the president of NCMEC, who gave stats for cases HIS organization (NCMEC) worked on (see the quote you inserted into your own post). the other study incorportates info from other organizations. also, ernie allen's stats include only those cases where a bona-fide stranger took the baby which is not necessarily the case for the second study linked. "non-family" there means not a parent or guardian... which does not mean "stranger". if i missed the descriptor of "stranger" somewhere, please correct me...

to me this second study/comparison reads like trying to compare an apple to well, anything else but an apple...

I disagree. The stats I got came from NCMEC. If you can come up with a different link to support your post, I'll gladly look at it.

 

[Whisperer]

In the link that you provided there are these statements dated Oct 8th 2011.


I went to the NCMEC website and found more current information that shows the 13 cases involving a stranger coming into a home and talking a baby is way off. This information shows that between 1983 and 2012, 116 out of 287 infant abductions by non-family members were taken from homes.


That's 40% of the total of all non-family infant abductions. I don't know how the AP reporter who wrote the article came up with only 13 but it's not even close. The number could even be a bit higher for infants up to Lisa's age because the stats listed are only for infants between birth and 6 months of age.

Now it does show that out of the 116 abducted infants 112 were located which is great. I wonder how many of these 112 took over a year to be located? Hopefully Lisa will be on the located list soon.

So we see that this article has some misinformation in it. I think that next we need to see if the statement of Capt. Steve Young about the phone interview is accurate or not.

http://www.deseretnews.com/article/700186327/Family-of-missing-baby-setting-up-reward.html?pg=all

http://www.ncmec.org/en_US/documents/InfantAbductionStats.pdf

There is no error. Ernie Allen is quoted directly on stats of babies Under one year that are abducted or claimed to be abducted.

in Most infants are recovered immediately. There are no signs of a stranger abduction the Irwin Case.

The reporter quoted Ernie Allen, president of missing and exploited children. I doubt Mr. Allen got his facts wrong. He made the statement a few days after the report of lisa missing. He stated clearly that out of 278 babies (under the age of one) reported abducted, 13 were by strangers, 12 were recovered.

He also said 1500 children die each year at the hands of their parents.

....I also reviewed that link you posted (ncmec) and that stat concerns babies who are abducted from the hospitals/facilties and are newborns. That link and those stats do not pertain to this case.

 

[Sabot]

Isn't it a fact that if only one child has been proven to be abducted by a stranger then it remains a possibility?
And we do know that more than one child has been abducted by a stranger.

 

[RANCH]

There is no error. Ernie Allen is quoted directly on stats of babies Under one year that are abducted or claimed to be abducted.

in Most infants are recovered immediately. There are no signs of a stranger abduction the Irwin Case.

The reporter quoted Ernie Allen, president of missing and exploited children. I doubt Mr. Allen got his facts wrong. He made the statement a few days after the report of lisa missing. He stated clearly that out of 278 babies (under the age of one) reported abducted, 13 were by strangers, 12 were recovered.

He also said 1500 children die each year at the hands of their parents.

....I also reviewed that link you posted (ncmec) and that stat concerns babies who are abducted from the hospitals/facilties and are newborns. That link and those stats do not pertain to this case.

Repeating what the AP reporter wrote doesn't change what the actual statistics are. I doubt that Mr Allen got the got his facts wrong but the reporter could have made a mistake like he did in the same article when he said that Lisa's parents talked to LE by phone and had not met with them in person.

I think that you need to look at the data that I posted over again. It clearly lists three categories.

Abductions by Non-Family Members from healthcare facilities, homes, and "other places" of Newborns/Infants (birth to 6 months).

Category #2 is abductions from homes between 1983 to 2012. They number 116 which is 40% of the total number of 287.

If you can show actual data disproving the statistics that I got from the NCMEC website please provide a link.

http://www.utsandiego.com/news/2011/oct/08/parents-of-missing-mo-baby-meeting-with-police/?ap

http://www.ncmec.org/en_US/documents/InfantAbductionStats.pdf

 

[RANCH]

Isn't it a fact that if only one child has been proven to be abducted by a stranger then it remains a possibility?
And we do know that more than one child has been abducted by a stranger.

Of course it's possible. No matter how lopsided the statistics are they don't prove anything. JMO.

 

[Whisperer]

Of course it's possible. No matter how lopsided the statistics are they don't prove anything. JMO.

To say that statistics don't prove anything is erroneous. They prove what happens in over 98% of cases of this type.

In thirty years, 278 babies under one year were claimed abducted and of those 13 were by strangers; 12 were returned unharmed and one was not. t is clear. Link has been given as requested. That is all that can be done. It a person chooses not to believe the expert, that is their choice and there is nothing that can change the mind. I honored their request...and that is all I can do.

 

[Whisperer]

Of course it's possible. No matter how lopsided the statistics are they don't prove anything. JMO.

....Statistics are kept for a very good reason. They show trends, how much insurance we pay, etc. Stats do show what will likely happen or has happened. They help us in many ways. Stats tell us about health aspects etc. Drs. don't ignore them.

Are we being asked to assume the reporter, in this case linked, got the facts wrong from the expert? At some point logic and reason has to be entertained. To keep questioning over and over again and attempting to rearrange the facts of the expert is futile. Saying stats don't matter is wrong. Stats do matter. Of course, if one doesn't like what they are, they can choose to ignore them. That is always an option.

In this case, I see no reason why the president of missing children would like to mislead the public. I also see why Pat Brown sees the case the way she does.

 

[Mrs G Norris]

Did Pat Brown actually say anything of any importance re Profiling during that Programme? If so, I must have missed it. Nancy Grace cut her off before she hardly opened her mouth. Very sensible, if you ask me.

What cases has Pat Brown actually worked on?

 

[Whisperer]

If we go a different route than it is necessary to set a premise of what one believed happened to baby Lisa. This list includes some aspects of reasons for children missing.

1. suicide/runaway
2. murder/homicide
3. accidental death/manslaughter/negligent homicide
4. family or person known to family...abduction for custody/revenge
5. stranger abduction for wanting a child of their own
6. stranger abduction for selling a child
7. stranger abduction for rape
8. stranger abduction for revenge

 

[Whisperer]

I get the impression Pat Brown has a working kge of criminal behavior. I think she is retired and is now an author. I think people who actually work with criminals and have a kge of their behavior should have some credit in their assessment. Personally I prefer Mark Fuhrman but Pat Brown offers some credence. I take bits and pieces from her but usually swallow the entire scenario MF put out there. He was a detective and being from LA has much more experience with crime and criminals. He also has a good "gut" instinct.

 

[Whisperer]

I don't think for one moment that KCPD believe the story the irwins and bradleys have put out there. They have to follow through with what is given them and therein lies the problem. Everything rests on the shoulders of LE and nothing on the parents.

 

[RANCH]

[/B]
....Statistics are kept for a very good reason. They show trends, how much insurance we pay, etc. Stats do show what will likely happen or has happened. They help us in many ways. Stats tell us about health aspects etc. Drs. don't ignore them.

Are we being asked to assume the reporter, in this case linked, got the facts wrong from the expert? At some point logic and reason has to be entertained. To keep questioning over and over again and attempting to rearrange the facts of the expert is futile. Saying stats don't matter is wrong. Stats do matter. Of course, if one doesn't like what they are, they can choose to ignore them. That is always an option.

In this case, I see no reason why the president of missing children would like to mislead the public. I also see why Pat Brown sees the case the way she does.

I think that statistics can be useful in many of things that you mention so I do feel that they matter. Can statistics prove that DB is guilty of harming Lisa? I don't think so. If things were that easy, we wouldn't need jury trials, you just look at the statistics and declare people guilty. If the statistics show that its unlikely that your guilty, you walk. I'd rather stick with actual evidence. And guilty beyond a reasonable doubt.

All I can say at this point about the NCMEC statistics is do you feel that they have it wrong on their website, or perhaps the reporter made a mistake? I vote that the reporter got it wrong.
JMO.

 

[Whisperer]

When I read the link that was posted by your link, it stated the stats were for babies under 6 mos. I stand by what Ernie Allen was quoted regarding babies under one year, unless he himself comes out and states it was wrong.

It is very rare for strangers to abduct babies under the age of one. Chances are very good that it is the parent or someone known to the parent who is responsible for the child missing.

Of course, anyone can choose to believe what they want but stats say it is more likely than not, the parent. The stats become more relevant when you consider the behavior of the evidence and clues to how LE is handling the case.