WA WA - D.B. Cooper hijacking mystery, 24 Nov 1971 - #2

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Jerry,

:)Pay close attention, I'm giving a test when this is over! :)


At sometime prior to 7:41 - last comm. with Ground Control.

At 7:37 - may have been wheels off – First comm. with Seattle Center.

At 7:40:06 - 305 verified altitude as 6500 feet and climbing, Cooper was trying to get the steps down. (Com with Seattle Center)

At 7:40:37 - 305 slows to 160 KIAS. (Com with Seattle Center)

At 7:42 – 305 reported 14 NM DME on V-23 with an aft stair light (Com with MSP Flt Ops).

At 7:44:22 - 305 holding at 7000 feet, back steps down, can’t climb in that configuration. (Com with Seattle Center)

At 7:45 - 305 reported 19 NM DME on V-23 (Com with MSP Flt Ops).

At 7:48 - the statement I quoted was made (Com with MSP Flt Ops).

At 7:48 - 305 reports beginning climb to 10,000 feet. (Com with MSP Flt Ops).

At 7:51:31 305 at 9000 ft. heading to 10,000 ft. (Com with Seattle Center)

At 8:12 - 305 reported oscillations in cabin (Com with MSP Flt Ops).

Sluggo

Yep, you're correct. I found it 2 mins after posting and wished I hadnt.
Its just difficult pouring through the transcripts on a moment's notice.
Jerry
 
Thanks snowmman, flattery will get you everywhere!

You know, all the dialog that goes on here is beneficial to the community as a whole. Putting that short piece together was VERY time consuming, but it makes it so much easier to understand what happened, and when it happened (what order it was in). Just using the com transcript document, I had to pull it from three separate logs.

So, I’ll ask the community a question. Do you believe it would be worthwhile for me to take all the (reliable) sources and construct a timeline?

If the community at large thinks it would be (worthwhile)… then I’ll invest the time required to do it. The end result would be too large for a post, but I’ll be glad to put it on my web site and that way the whole NORJAK community will have the benefit of a research tool that organizes all the NORJAK actions in a logical manner (instead of three (or more) disparate sources).

Please let me know how you feel, if it’s deemed worthwhile, I’ll get started right away and publish incrementally.

Thanks to all,

Sluggo

Absolutely. I started one several times but strayed. It would be valuable
to have a timetable if only for for the chain of significant events. Do use all the (reliable) material you have as transcripts alone will have gaps of course.
 
Absolutely. I started one several times but strayed. It would be valuable to have a timetable if only for for the chain of significant events. Do use all the (reliable) material you have as transcripts alone will have gaps of course.

Jerry,

Well, ask and ye shall be given.

I have produced a time table on my web page. It is not intended to replace the transcripts and other source documents, but as a tool to aid in understanding them.

Give it a look and tell me what you think.

[Click Here] to go to the Time-Table.

Sluggo
 

Descriptions of Cooper:
Mucklow
"W/M, mid 40's, 5-10" 6', 180 to 190, med to dark complexion, medium build, dark straight hair with narrow sideburns to mid ear parted and combed back, dark plastic wrap-around sunglasses, dark top coat, dark brown suit possibly with a thin black stripe, brown socks, brown ankle length pebble grain shoes, not the tie type, he had a low voice with no accent, she did not see scars, marks or tattoos, the man did not have on any jewelry she could see."

Schaffner
W/M, mid 40's, 6', 170-175, average build, brown eyes, straight black hair medium length and parted on the left side, olive skin, black business suit, white shirt, thin black tie, black overcoat, black shoes, black briefcase, dark framed sunglasses with brown lenses, no scars marks or tattoos, he had a normal calm voice and appeared to be of Latin descent."

Sluggo


I've bolded the discrepanies in each of the descriptions of each person. Wondering how Schaffner can tell he had brown eyes IF he had dark sunglasses on... ?? and one has a black business, while the other has dark brown with black stripes. I guess you can't really rely on eye witness accounts...

Also Snowman mentioned:
We know they have butts. I don't know why we know they are butts from Cooper? I'm assuming they saw him smoke, not just "oh we found butts in his seat's ashtray" I believe it's the latter - they found the butts in his seat's ashtray from what I recall!

There was a mention of comm. transcript - Sluggo - would you have a direct link to these transcripts?? TIA!
 
Carr has confirmed in the last couple days that Cooper was seen smoking. In fact Tina lit one for him, and evidently Tina shared a smoke with him while seated next to him. Per Carr 5/27/08
[FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]
"Cooper only had matches and when he ran out Tina used the ones she had. I would imagine in 1971 they carried matches on the drink cart and lit cigarettes for passengers many times a flight.

Cooper gave Tina one of his a cigarettes which she smoked. Sitting next to Cooper."

[/FONT]
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica] We had an involved match discussion because Carr had also mentioned Tina lit a smoke for Cooper.
[/FONT]
[/FONT][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica][FONT=Verdana,Arial,Helvetica]
[/FONT]
[/FONT]
 
Sluggo, the presentation of data you've done is truly great, and will really help focus discussion. It's like a Magruder frame-by-frame analysis!

I'm focused on the exchanges at 20:20
Do you think it's possible that all this activity is in response to some notification of "probably jumped" Or could it be in response to passing over Portland? What's interesting is both the comms, and the fact that 305 didn't respond? Maybe they were busy with flying details, like getting thru Portland? Or were they past Portland.

It's odd to me that there are no Portland tower comms. I would think 305 would have to check in with PDX? They were flying thru PDX controlled space, correct? or no? Are we just missing any PDX comms or do we know there were none?

from your page, the 20:20 stuff:
20:20 PST
Flt Ops MSP request Go to 131.8 MHz.
Flt-Ops MSP
Attempted Comm. with Flt 305
20:20 PST
Flt-Ops SEA advises Flt 305 is already on that frequency
Flt-Ops SEA
Comm. between Flt-Ops MSP and Flt-Ops SEA
20:20 PST
Flt Ops MSP Advises we are on the phone and will be talking with him shortly.
Flt-Ops SEA
Comm. between Flt-Ops MSP and Flt-Ops SEA
 
I'm focused on the exchanges at 20:20
Do you think it's possible that all this activity is in response to some notification of "probably jumped" Or could it be in response to passing over Portland? What's interesting is both the comms, and the fact that 305 didn't respond? Maybe they were busy with flying details, like getting thru Portland? Or were they past Portland.

It's odd to me that there are no Portland tower comms. I would think 305 would have to check in with PDX? They were flying thru PDX controlled space, correct? or no? Are we just missing any PDX comms or do we know there were none?

snowmman,

I’m not sure I’m following you.

There was a phone-patch with MSP so they could have been discussing the possible jump.

There would be no Portland Tower Comms. Portland was not a Class C Airspace (there were no Class C airspaces then). They would have been at 10,000 which would put them above any concern for Portland Tower Controlled Area (TCA). SEA CNTR was handling the flight. In fact, every one of those frequency changes was probably a handoff to another radar position at SEA CNTR.

They were most assuredly past (or over) Portland at 20:20. Remember the “Brown and Steaming” Calc. I did on the other board? That’s why I included the Portland Altimeter setting, and not the others. They got the altimeter for Portland at 20:15 they would have probably been over Vancouver then. ATC always gives the altimeter as you are flying INTO the affected area.

Sluggo
 
Okay
I'm thinking "what-if" if Cooper was kind of in the plane trying to spot Portland lights for deciding when to jump. He wouldn't hang out on the stairs? too risky? So he's seeing Portland as they pass it. Then he would be affected by wind and canopy drift. My NOAA map 11/24/71 says winds from the South with one feather barb, which means a 10 knot wind? This is substantially less than the big numbers Agent H. was quoting in the news articles..I guess that was up in the Ariel area.

So I'm wondering if Cooper jumped when he saw Portland, if he'd be blown back into the Columbia, since it would be a late spot from the rear of the plane.

Also: how do you estimate plane ground speed with wind? all we have is indicated air speed right? Doesn't that make the flight path estimate time over the Columbia difficult?

Edit: Obviously I'm trying to make Cooper land in the Columbia where V23 crosses it...
 
OkayAlso: how do you estimate plane ground speed with wind? all we have is indicated air speed right? Doesn't that make the flight path estimate time over the Columbia difficult?

Quote From Larry Carr:
From all of this and the location where the money was found, we need to extend the calulation to 8:13, 8:14 and 8:15. I am guessing this would put the jump location near Orchard WA.

The winds for that location are as follows:
225 degrees - 20 knots @ 7,000 ft
230 degrees - 25 knots @ 5,000 ft
235 degrees - 20 knots @ 2,000 ft
235 degrees - 15 knots @ surface

Since they were at 10,000 MSL we will use the WS and WD from 7,000.

Use 225 deg and 20 knots

Using my asa CX-1 Pathfinder (because I have gotten very lazy in my old age) I get:

Enter WD = 225
Enter WS = 20 knots
Enter Course = 175 deg (the magnetic Deviation is not readily available)
Ground Speed = 156.5 knots
Heading to steer = 180 deg

That’s a quick and dirty.

If someone has some specifics they want to look at, let me know and I’ll do a better calculation. But the level of reliability of the data just doesn’t merit it.

Sluggo
 
thanks..

on predicting 8:13 thru 8:15

the jan 72 map has flight speed and wind info embedded in it's prediction, right?

the AB line is 8:11? and there are two other canopy drift paths.

so if you measure the distance (in google earth) along the flight path between the 3 drift paths, and then create more drift paths further south at the same spacing, then you should get reasonable new jump zones right?

now the wind is probably less as you go south, and the plane's air speed seemed to be changed.

But this would be a current best guess approach right?

You've got all the points in GE already.
hmm I'll have to get a copy of that kmz from you
 
I was musing about Scott's supposed recollection of being "west" of 5

Looking at Google Earth, and assuming a jump time of 8:15 or so, maybe Scott mistakenly id'ed interstate 205 as interstate 5...he would be west of 205 on V23 at 8:15 given the times and speed implied by the Jan 72 map.

5 and 205 diverge right around there, it might be easy to confuse them with cloud cover. They both head generally south.

I'm thinking about the Barberton/Walnut Grove area (nowadays)

(assuming Jan 72 map is accurate for position but not jump time..but as you're saying, that might not be true)
 
snowmman,

Slow down here. Let’s don’t over-science this thing. Go back to the basics.

Yes, the Jan 72 map included all factors, pull high, pull low, no pull, etc. (BTW: The no-pull calculation was 2600 ft along the path of the aircraft, assuming he was in the tucked-in position.) As much as they scienced-it-out they just used a single wind speed for the entire drift path.

The West of I-5 stuff is (as far as I can tell) a myth. In fact, when I first heard that (the visit from Scott or Rataczak at his retirement party) it was he was East of the original location. This does not square with the radar info. So, until someone has something definitive, I’m ignoring it.

I don’t know why you feel the winds would be calmer further south, but for the level of accuracy we have with the data, just use the values from the 1972 map. Same azimuth, same distance.

I’m not sure, but I don’t think 205 existed in 1971.

Sluggo
 
Jerry,

Well, ask and ye shall be given.

I have produced a time table on my web page. It is not intended to replace the transcripts and other source documents, but as a tool to aid in understanding them.

Give it a look and tell me what you think.

[Click Here] to go to the Time-Table.

Sluggo


OUTSTANDING!
 
Okay
I'm thinking "what-if" if Cooper was kind of in the plane trying to spot Portland lights for deciding when to jump. He wouldn't hang out on the stairs? too risky? So he's seeing Portland as they pass it. Then he would be affected by wind and canopy drift. My NOAA map 11/24/71 says winds from the South with one feather barb, which means a 10 knot wind? This is substantially less than the big numbers Agent H. was quoting in the news articles..I guess that was up in the Ariel area.

So I'm wondering if Cooper jumped when he saw Portland, if he'd be blown back into the Columbia, since it would be a late spot from the rear of the plane.

Also: how do you estimate plane ground speed with wind? all we have is indicated air speed right? Doesn't that make the flight path estimate time over the Columbia difficult?

Edit: Obviously I'm trying to make Cooper land in the Columbia where V23 crosses it...


If we can somehow get from Clark Co (Sluggo's last DZ I think) to approaching Portland, then we arrrive back where you have always
liked (I believe) which is - augering into the Columbia. This would tie everything together. Placard atToutle. Witness reports from Ariel area
clear down to Heisson. Money found at Tena Bar. The FBI claims the money could not have been on the bank prior to the dredging along
Tena Bar (1974?). So maybe it was the dredging itself that threw the
money up on the bank high with the bulk of dredging sedimets under
the money which a hydrologist later interprets as 'could not have been
here prior to the dredging (1974?)'. A wild idea -
Jerry
 
yes we all bow down before the sluggo monster for his epic work.

I was referencing the NOAA weather map 11/24/71 for portland wind speed 10 knots.
That's surface wind, so I guess it's not a lot different than the surface wind speed you quoted from up north. (Carr's numbers of 15 knots surface near Orchard).

I wonder where Carr got those numbers. Is it a max for the day? Some kind of reading at 8:15 near orchard. I think maybe we really don't know anything about exact wind speeds at 8:11 thru 8:15....I can't imagine hourly records are available today. Maybe they were back then. We should ask Carr if he's referring to some file info for those numbers he quoted.

For amusement, and to show how myths were created by the FBI....

I want to quote some nonsense Agent Himmelsbach said about wind and landing speeds...he was very loose with using gust numbers to imply sustained wind speeds and craziness. But even allowing that, he's just way off the mark. Very bad myth creating. This was UPI wire story 5 years after the jump.

The Times Herald Record, 11/18/76
Agent H. is trying to justify why he thinks Cooper died with bad data or his imagined data.

'Himmelsbach said Cooper could not have known where he was when he jumped, and furthermore, he was not dressed properly. "It was a stormy night, with freezing rain at his altitude and winds gusting from 25 to 45 knots at Portland International Airport. maybe stronger along the Lewis River in southwest Washington where he bailed out.
...
"With that 28-foot canopy he would have descended 26 miles an hour vertically. Add a 30 to 55 m.p.h. wind and he would have hit at a speed of 50 to 70 miles an hour. The experts say it is inconceivable that he could have escaped serious injury or instant death - even assuming his parachute opened"'

I am not making this up. This is exactly the quote from H.
And he was paid with taxpayer money. If he was a doctor he'd be sued for malpractice. If you thought Agent H. was capable of it, you'd assume he was lying to cover someone. The data is just wrong. as we all know now.

I mean he's saying 55 mph peak winds at landing. Referring to the Beufort scale:
http://www.marinewaypoints.com/marine/wind.shtml

47-54 mph winds (41-47 knots) is called "strong gale" and causes this:
Slight damage occurs to buildings, shingles are blown off of roofs

shifting to knots first like we're seeing in the numbers above:

11-16 knot winds (13-18mph) are considered "moderate breeze" and cause this
Small branches move, raises dust, leaves and paper.

17-21 knot winds (19-24mph) are considered "fresh breeze" and cause this
Small trees sway.

 
JWarner:

I've since learned more about the dredging and the use of auger (bladed) dredging there, with some first hand reports from locals on dredging in later years and dumping of spoils at Fazio Bros. Sand Company. Apparently it's done yearly there, which leads to the large sand pile you can see in Google Earth. They sell it off every year.

But you're right. Too much stuff is quickly explained by coincidence. You find the money on the beach near or at where dredging spoils were dumped, but you latch onto some weak science and say there's no connection. I'm not sure why Geologists in universities are experts on the results of dredging, when there is no requirement for documenting layers etc when you dredge. There may be a clay layer there. How do we know it's due to the '74 dredging? How do we know the spoils were put on the beach as opposed to deeper on the Fazios land? Implying that dredging creates a single identifiable layer doesn't seem to make sense either.

Or, rather than spoils, the dredger could have just kicked something up/loose, not thru the machine, like you say.

I left it saying "the money got there somehow. it could have drifted multiple times over 9 years. So dredging theories don't necessarily prove anything"

What's really important I think is statements about decomposition and bundle integrity. I've posted some on this at DZ.com. I think we need more science giving us a MINIMUM time requirement for the bundles at Tena Bar. Not a maximum (which I think is bad science...their "1 year" because of the rubber bands is wrong, I think....)

I will grant that the Tena Bar location seems to be at the end of Caterpillar Island such that eddy currents and low velocity water flow should cause garbage to collect there.

Sluggo and I had a discussion about how, if Tena Bar was a good garbage collection point, that the FBI should have unearthed a variety of paper, plastic or aluminum trash in the sand layers during their excavation.
We don't know if they did. They should have, theoretically? if it's a good collection point for money/garbage floating or pushed by the river.

I mean if the money is floating/moving trash, and there's usually other floating/moving trash in a big river, then lots of stuff should collect there.

For comedic interest, although slightly relevant, I'll include a link and quotes from an expert who claims that right feet and left feet from human bodies in the ocean tend to collect on the same but different beaches. I know I'm not an expert on how things float and collect in rivers. This should reinforce that few people are without some study/experiments/data.

A fourth foot has been discovered off Canada's Pacific coast
Published: May 23, 2008
http://www.iht.com/articles/ap/2008/05/23/america/NA-GEN-Canada-Mystery-Feet.php

VANCOUVER, British Columbia: For the fourth time in less than a year, a right human foot has been found off one of four different islands in the Strait of Georgia in British Columbia.
...
Ebbesmeyer said it may not be a coincidence they were found in the same area. He said left foot wear and right foot wear often tend to wash up at different times at different places because they float differently.
He added that there are beaches that collect mostly rights and other beaches that collect mostly lefts because the winds of currents sort out left and right foot wear.
 
snip...
And did they ask everyone selling stuff at the airport about anyone buying Raleighs? I have another whole post I could do about the whole smoking thing and questions I have around that.

;) waiting...

Sluggo said:
...
If Himmelsbach was under ungodly pressure, that was his choice, he was a Portland, OR agent not a Seattle, WA agent. NORJAK is a Seattle case. He didn't have to be as involved as he was.

and he proably had NO idea this would go unsolved!!
 
snip...
I'm wondering if Cooper actually rigged up while the plane was on the ground. It's a detail that's probably in the Tina testimony that we should be able to squeeze out of Carr. The rig-up timeline might serve as a "tell" on experience. And when did he open the chest and cut ropes and tie knots? I'm guessing that happened on the ground too. That would be even more of a hassle to do in a plane that's climbing? Especially if you're stressed/rushed thinking you've got to jump soon.

excellent thought!! Ted Mayfield should have had no problem with it!

And YES!! Sluggo - re timeline!!

Don't you all think we should start another thread here - this one is getting WAY too big to load... just saying!! I can ask to start a new one! :)
 
Thanks Sluggo for the link to the transcripts! I'll definitely go there this weekend and catch up!
 
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