Lots of good and well-thought-out theories here.
I especially agree with AA contacting NC and telling her he has to run -- I can't think of any other reason she would have taken off like she did. When and where she did. That's just insane.
What surprises me a little is that there were no arrests stemming from the raid. On the Pullman PD page, they say the Sheriff's Department, State Police, and FBI were all involved in the raid. Yet, nothing. Crickets.
That makes me consider AA might have planned this on his own to keep his family safe, but they may have suspected it, which is why they immediately jumped to his defense. All the info they had about Samara had to have come from AA, so did he regularly trash Samara to his parents?
And, no Amber Alert.
I also question whether Samara thought this might happen. In the interview, her mother says Samara called her from the PD screaming. That might be an exaggeration, but if she really was screaming, why was she screaming? At that point, there was no real evidence AA had absconded with Seraya. Just that he was late and (according to the note from the Aungs) he might have been delayed. That makes me wonder if AA and Samara had some sort of conversation or argument recently. JMOO
I just don't think most parents would scream at that point. They might get angry, swear, or make plans to go back to court and get more custody.
It just makes me wonder if something was brewing between them.