atthelake
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It sounds to me like you're conflating compound dependent events with combinations?
If you have a compound dependent event - that is, Events A, B, and C, and event B is reliant on Event A, and C is reliant on Event B - you multiply the probabilities together. The order of the events is important, so you don't just combine them as you would when trying to determine a probability like in your scenario.
The original poster's math appears to be correct.
http://www.tpub.com/math2/88.htm
http://www.glencoe.com/sec/math/prealg/prealg05/study_guide/pdfs/prealg_pssg_G106.pdf
http://www.mathgoodies.com/lessons/vol6/dependent_events.html
:waitasec: I'll leave to y'all for follow up in the next 5 days as I'm headed out in the next 30 minutes to New Orleans Jazz Festival - and will be meeting up with another :websleuther:! :seeya: