4 Univ of Idaho Students Murdered, Bryan Kohberger Arrested, Moscow, Nov 2022 #88

DNA Solves
DNA Solves
DNA Solves
Status
Not open for further replies.
You have tried laboriously to explain this to lay folks. This explanation is quite detailed and helpful even though it's probably monotonous to you. So I thank you for your time simplifying it to that level.

Thank you! I feel it's important. WS has a lot of very smart people - but the DNA thing might be new to a lot of us. I started studying this stuff in 1972. Got hooked.

I think it's VERY important to explain what is basically a fairly simple system to everyone - and I hope that both sides use appropriate experts. I think the Defense has a long row to hoe, with this one (the buccal swab matching the sheath swab...oh my). Defense is right to question whether there is other DNA in the crime scene of import (the two stranger profiles) but in the end, the knife sheath DNA and the Othram match are what they are. Same as leaving a fingerprint. Or getting caught by a camera.

IMO.
 
The hearings were hard to hear with the background noise. I just re-listened to the linked hearing. Taylor is asking for "the Unexpected Corrective Actions/Unexpected Results" log books for the Idaho State Police Forensics Lab. The lab provided some logs before and after and AT tells the court it's not enough they want the full year - 6 months before November 1st and 6 months after.

Okay. MOO, this is just one more fact piled on the scale of the guessing game of they don't have anything in their arsenal to defend this defendant. They are hoping to find a defense in 1) the 3 unknown male dna, 2) the officers' training records; 3) the IGG; 4) the GJ; and now, 5) in the Idaho Lab procedures. With every motion like this she tells me she's got nothing to work with here.

All jmo
 
Initially, I was convinced this was a completely and totally different kind of case. Then after BK's arrest, I was, at first, perplexed and then decided like many here that BK was the right suspect, however, the more I delve into this case, the more it looks like this is something completely different than an incel case. So I am now back to my original case theory. You know if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

I think LE thought that after they arrested BK, they would issue lots of search warrants (which they did) and find many things that linked BK to the roommates, the weapon and other items related to this crime, but apparently their search warrants did not come to fruition according to what his attorney, Anne Taylor has written. I'm still keeping an open mind that the prosecutor surely MUST have something more than the little we know of. But the prosecution and the defense are supposed to have shared everything with each other and AT wrote that there was "precious little" evidence against BK. The information in the PCA is weak and far too easy to tear apart.

I come from a family full of members of LE, military and attorneys, so it is not like I am anti LE or anti-prosecution at all, in fact I'm the total opposite of that. Those are MY people and they are HEROES. But I also know they are human beings and can make mistakes. From what I've seen so far, this case really has me very concerned. And I'm even more concerned about what it means if they have not arrested the right person(s) because that is terrifying.

However, I remain open minded to hearing the prosecutions case. Perhaps once I hear it, I will be reassured that they have the correct defendant.
Then you do think he should have been arrested?
 
Initially, I was convinced this was a completely and totally different kind of case. Then after BK's arrest, I was, at first, perplexed and then decided like many here that BK was the right suspect, however, the more I delve into this case, the more it looks like this is something completely different than an incel case. So I am now back to my original case theory. You know if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

I think LE thought that after they arrested BK, they would issue lots of search warrants (which they did) and find many things that linked BK to the roommates, the weapon and other items related to this crime, but apparently their search warrants did not come to fruition according to what his attorney, Anne Taylor has written. I'm still keeping an open mind that the prosecutor surely MUST have something more than the little we know of. But the prosecution and the defense are supposed to have shared everything with each other and AT wrote that there was "precious little" evidence against BK. The information in the PCA is weak and far too easy to tear apart.

I come from a family full of members of LE, military and attorneys, so it is not like I am anti LE or anti-prosecution at all, in fact I'm the total opposite of that. Those are MY people and they are HEROES. But I also know they are human beings and can make mistakes. From what I've seen so far, this case really has me very concerned. And I'm even more concerned about what it means if they have not arrested the right person(s) because that is terrifying.

However, I remain open minded to hearing the prosecutions case. Perhaps once I hear it, I will be reassured that they have the correct defendant.

I thought so too, I thought there was going to be completely different person arrested. It surprised me when time went by, then when BK was arrested, it suprised me.

What I don't understand is why LE from the beginning said they did not believe there was further threat to the general public? For me, that leaned towards the theory I had... then not so.

I hope they have got solid forensic evidence against him, otherwise I'm starting to feel more circumspect over time, whereas usually I feel more confident and totally persuaded. The courts usually get it totally right so I have faith in the process.
 
This. IMO. I've noticed that. If he didn't feel threatened he'd keep his cool.
Huh — I’ve not seen the State lose its cool.

OTOH, certain members of the DT seem to regularly lose their cool & include nonsensical references to Bentham in their quasi-bombastic Motions.

I guess losing one’s cool is a rather subjective standard, eh?

FWIW, I’ve watched BT in court many many times & have never once seen him appear “threatened.” MOO, of course!
 
When I first heard of this awful case, I immediately thought, that's been done by some real weirdo with issues against young attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. Then lo and behold, very soon DNA leads us to a real weirdo with probable issues against young and attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. It really is a perfect quacking duck case, IMO. And that's even without all the extra frills of Elantra cars, cell phones, known attitudes and behaviour, and education history. And even that's without knowing everything LE may have found when searching his car and apartment, eg those mysterious ID cards. IMO a very, very loud duck is quacking.
 
I thought so too, I thought there was going to be completely different person arrested. It surprised me when time went by, then when BK was arrested, it suprised me.

What I don't understand is why LE from the beginning said they did not believe there was further threat to the general public? For me, that leaned towards the theory I had... then not so.

I hope they have got solid forensic evidence against him, otherwise I'm starting to feel more circumspect over time, whereas usually I feel more confident and totally persuaded. The courts usually get it totally right so I have faith in the process.

[BBM] Imoo (which isn't worth very much) this was one of their biggest mistakes. Very bad. I can't imagine the defense not using this in their theory of the case which sounds to me (guess only) to be shaping up as a "The evidence didn't lead them to BK, they found BK and they made the evidence fit" type of argument. Just a guess. (I don't think that's going to work for a number of reasons)

jmo
 
Initially, I was convinced this was a completely and totally different kind of case. Then after BK's arrest, I was, at first, perplexed and then decided like many here that BK was the right suspect, however, the more I delve into this case, the more it looks like this is something completely different than an incel case. So I am now back to my original case theory. You know if it walks like a duck, and quacks like a duck...

I think LE thought that after they arrested BK, they would issue lots of search warrants (which they did) and find many things that linked BK to the roommates, the weapon and other items related to this crime, but apparently their search warrants did not come to fruition according to what his attorney, Anne Taylor has written. I'm still keeping an open mind that the prosecutor surely MUST have something more than the little we know of. But the prosecution and the defense are supposed to have shared everything with each other and AT wrote that there was "precious little" evidence against BK. The information in the PCA is weak and far too easy to tear apart.

I come from a family full of members of LE, military and attorneys, so it is not like I am anti LE or anti-prosecution at all, in fact I'm the total opposite of that. Those are MY people and they are HEROES. But I also know they are human beings and can make mistakes. From what I've seen so far, this case really has me very concerned. And I'm even more concerned about what it means if they have not arrested the right person(s) because that is terrifying.

However, I remain open minded to hearing the prosecutions case. Perhaps once I hear it, I will be reassured that they have the correct defendant.

Yet, you are unable (to my way of thinking) to narrow down your concerns to anything specific. Why did you think it was an incel case? It is likely not - and maybe more of another kind of ideology case. IMO. Yes, if it walks like duck is a good motto - and it fits in this case, but I cannot conclude (at all) that Kohberger is not the duck. He fits everything about the duck that I know of in the criminology literature - but can't be convicted on that, obviously.

Why do you think the warrants produced nothing? They are all under seal. Even past warrants and their results have information removed and even some MSM have taken articles down or altered them. IMO. To protect BK's rights.

You seem not to understand that there's no way that human thinking can be shared in discovery (which the law acknowleges) OR that machine thinking is even more opaque. When LE run license plates and the DMV spits out an owner's name - it is what it is. The owner has been discovered and if for some reason, they have neglected to change ownership (or whatever) it's now ON THEM to prove compliance.

BK doesn't have to "prove" anything, but when the DNA from the sheath was run, it matched with a relative of his, and then with his dad, and then with HIM. Four steps. Good investigation. Much like using a phone book.

Just to change the topic, what are your thoughts on this defendant waiving his right to a speedy trial? To me, this speaks volumes, as anyone who is wrongfully arrested does *not* (these days) take that path. His Defense is struggling - hard! - to say that one tiny bit of the process was undocumented (but has not ONCE challenged the DNA itself - found on the sheath and found in Kohberger's mouth).

What do you make of that? I mean, it's obvious that's going to be the case-in-main, so if his buccal swab matches the sheath - will you think they at least had cause for arrest? It's also true that there is phone data, a return to the scene of the crime, a return to the circuit of the crime (the southern route), and the car videos.

Are you really saying that if I leave my DNA on a component of a murder weapon, admit to being out and about during the hours where the murder was committed (and without witnesses), I turn my phone off before arriving near the murder scene, turning it back on some time after the killings, and **return to the scene of the crime** - I should not be on a Judge's radar?

What is needed then? Actual video of every crime that's committed? For me, since I know this ripples through the whole Justice system, I have to think that nearly every thief, armed robber and carjacker would go free if we could not use a confluence of events to arrest. The arrestee then gets every chance to provide a defense (in this case, so far technical issues and not matters of fact - Defense admits no one knew where Kohberger was that night and that he was out "driving around.")

When a property crime occurs, DNA labs are so over run that we cannot (where I live) expect that sort of investigation - not even fingerprints. So, we're down to using these techniques for only the murders or other crimes with mayhem. Not all murders get this kind of investigation - the FBI crime lab was on site to run victim DNA and separate the results from Other DNA right away.

Yet despite these incredible advances and (IMO) an impeccable investigation, we have people who think the confluence of events is not enough even for an arrest! My ex was ARRESTED for jay-walking! (At a college football game! I could go on!)

An arrestee gets many chances to have their case heard (that's what we're witnessing). And the Judge keeps ruling and still the arrest stands. The Defense wants to throw out the GJ, but still IT STANDS because a Judge (impartial oversee of trial) says it does.

This is not convincing to you? It's not as if (at the end of this week) we don't have more corroboration that the Judge thinks Kohberger should remain under arrest until a trier of fact (a jury) can hear the whole case.

Obviously, AT and her group do not want the entire case to ever be heard (wait till they attack the autopsy results) because it's gruesome, tragic, horrifying, a tremendous burden to even THINK about). Why am I here? Because i decided long ago that if victims and their families have to bear the burden of a legal process after their family members are brutally murdered (or raped or beaten sensesless), then so do I, as a citizen. Do I think Kohberger should be free of arrest? No, not at all. I want to hear his defense.

But he and his team have decided to delay that defense indefinitely. Why? What do they wish we would not hear? Because I know for a fact that just the autopsies are going to bring a grim reality to this case that most of us cannot even imagine.

IMO.
 
When I first heard of this awful case, I immediately thought, that's been done by some real weirdo with issues against young attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. Then lo and behold, very soon DNA leads us to a real weirdo with probable issues against young and attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. It really is a perfect quacking duck case, IMO. And that's even without all the extra frills of Elantra cars, cell phones, known attitudes and behaviour, and education history. And even that's without knowing everything LE may have found when searching his car and apartment, eg those mysterious ID cards. IMO a very, very loud duck is quacking.
Quack Quack Quack
 
When I first heard of this awful case, I immediately thought, that's been done by some real weirdo with issues against young attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. Then lo and behold, very soon DNA leads us to a real weirdo with probable issues against young and attractive women, but also very intelligent and careful. It really is a perfect quacking duck case, IMO. And that's even without all the extra frills of Elantra cars, cell phones, known attitudes and behaviour, and education history. And even that's without knowing everything LE may have found when searching his car and apartment, eg those mysterious ID cards. IMO a very, very loud duck is quacking.

You and me both.

I thought it was a real weirdo embedded (hopelessly) within the sanctuary of Higher Ed. It fit.

Very intelligent compared to the usual crowd and very careful.

But lacking in...je ne sais quoi. Something. Not just a conscience, but also a certain lack of self-mirroring and awareness (which goes along with the diagnosis of VSS). It also goes with other diagnoses, so not ruling that out.

Not that it matters - Idaho doesn't consider mental health in the trial phase.

What better object for a woman-hating, homicidal young man - than the intelligent, college-educated women he thought he deserved?

I always go by prior cases, and mass murders (as this one is) fall into particular categories - a major one being "ideological" (in the mind of the killer). As opposed to serial killer Jesperson who saw everything in terms of opportunities and cared very little about other aspects of his victims. They were hitchhiking? Doomed. They were sex workers? Doomed. He didn't care if they were smart or beautiful (via his standards) or very young. He just cared that they were "stupid" enough to hitch a ride with him. He's sitting there in the driver's seat, smirking - apparently, when each girl gets into his truck and his only mental effort is in deciding whether he feels like raping and killing them that night. Most of the time, he does feel that way - but sometimes, he has an "off night" and lets them go.

That revealed a lot to me about the architecture of serial killing - but I think some of it applies to this rare mass murder case (where it isn't plainly ideological OR familial).
 
What I don't understand is why LE from the beginning said they did not believe there was further threat to the general public?

They walked that statement back within about 48 hrs. IIRC it was because they initially thought the attack was targeted. Either way, they clarified very quickly with “we cannot say there is no threat to the public.”
 
[BBM]
They walked that statement back within about 48 hrs. IIRC it was because they initially thought the attack was targeted. Either way, they clarified very quickly with “we cannot say there is no threat to the public.”
That's my recollection as well. Whatever their initial theory of the crime was, and thankfully they didn't share it publicly, it must have changed pretty quickly.
 
That's my recollection as well. Whatever their initial theory of the crime was, and thankfully they didn't share it publicly, it must have changed pretty quickly.
In the beginning of investigation most crimes, very little is known and statements are made that are later found to be untrue or unfounded. I certainly don't hold that against law enforcement.
 
It won't settle anything. So re-running the labwork is not the issue any longer.

No one is disputing the actual DNA labwork. The Prosecution did not run the DNA themselves, it was done at the Idaho State Police Lab. No one is claiming THEY did it wrong (especially as now there is a buccal swab and it matches Kohberger precisely, as it should).

The dispute is over a game of match. The letters from the sheath DNA results (all those ATCG's) gave a close relationship hit from a data base of millions of people who are contributing, voluntarily, their DNA to forensic work. To catch criminals. I'm about to upload mine to Othram, as well. Othram has its own forum here on WS and has been instrumental in solving many crimes.

What the Defense wants is something that was done by a non-thinking, non-notetaking computer. A giant spreadsheet, if you will. In which only a computer did the work and spat out the results. They want the "work product" of a computer.

Think of it like typing your name into a word document, then passing the document to someone else. Each person types in their name.

Then you use the search function to look for your own name. Should the FBI have taken a screen shot of this? Why? It always works the same way. No one takes screen shots of things like that. Instead, once the match was made, FBI had the percentage number of the match. A number that looks something like this:

23% identical to [Joe Kohberger]. (We know there was a match to a Kohberger, I made up the first name). For comparison, I have a 1% match with over 3000 people. I'm still related to them - but that wouldn't help much in a task like this one. What proof can I show that 1% is too low to be an effective match? None. Indeed, it could be a big lead in other circumstances. If my DNA was used, there would be one person (my daughter) who matches me 50% and two women (my half-sisters) who match me 23% and 25.2$ respectively (they also match my daughter at about 12-13%). Then there are about 1000 people who are my cousins (first, second, third and fourth - often 1-3x removed). If Kohberger were my cousin - he'd be in that smaller group. The fact that both names are Kohberger is helpful but it could have been a different last name.

IOW, all this stuff I just wrote - is it evidence? Is it work product? Or is it just common sense? I say it's just common sense. It's like asking some to "show their work" when 1+1 = 2

How does one show the work product for 1 + 1 ??? Would love to hear some answers - but I have never gotten any ones I can understand. People want to grab two items and show me and count - that's not "work product." That's common sense object lessons.

FBI did not build the database. FBI does not own the propietary decision-making 0's and 1's that run the database.

FBI did not find a Kohberger and tell them to submit DNA to Othram (or whatever service).

This was done voluntarily by whatever Kohberger submitted their DNA results. As far as we know, Othram never ran any results in a wet lab (they DO have the ability to do it - but their website says that's in really unusual circumstances; their main goal is IGG).

FBI did not tell the Othram-Kohberger to give their DNA to Othram, this was done voluntarily (and Othram is an entirely forensic - service, they make it VERY clear that the voluntary submission of one's results from a DNA test WILL be used to capture criminals - that's the whole point of this particular dBase, which I believe they used).

My problem with all of this is that apparently, the Defense wants the DNA results from the actual person (Joe Kohberger). Those are medical records. They were given to Othram for one purpose - not for sharing with the public. It's sad, but this tactic by the Defense will likely cause fewer people to upload their existing DNA results to IGG sites. I suppose that's the point. I'll continue my own campaign to get as many people as possible to get their results (somewhere) and then upload them to reputable IGG companies.

FBI put their stranger DNA ACTG report into a database that analyses ACTG's across millions of submissions and computes matches mathematically.

It's all just math. And very very simple math at that (not even college algebra needed). It's the sheer number of those letters (600,000 analyzed per submission x 1-2 million submissions) that means a computer must do it. A human would keep losing track and it would take years for them to get the results. Computer does it in a couple of seconds.

IMO.

EXCELLENT post!

Love your logic and the way you simplified everything down to the raw essence of the argument.

Well done and thanks!
 
Thank you 10, so agree.

I said it the day I read her CV that I sure as heck wouldn't want to be making those kind of allegations against LE/FBI. Does not surprise me one bit they went to talk to her. I bet she is regretting it now.

MOO
And it is unfair and misleading the way AT tried to spin it in court---claiming the FBI was harassing a witness for nefarious purposes. Then people ran with it, even on here, implying Thompson put the FBI up to it to intimidate a witness.

Those are the kinds of things that bother me about the way this defense team is working. A lot of smoke and mirrors and attempts at deflection and distortion, IMO.

The FBI had valid reasons to speak to that DNA expert after she claimed in court that other employees were acting illegally during LE investigations and she had knowledge about the circumstances. The FBI would be shirking their duties by not interviewing her. JMO
 
I thought so too, I thought there was going to be completely different person arrested. It surprised me when time went by, then when BK was arrested, it suprised me.

What I don't understand is why LE from the beginning said they did not believe there was further threat to the general public? For me, that leaned towards the theory I had... then not so.

I hope they have got solid forensic evidence against him, otherwise I'm starting to feel more circumspect over time, whereas usually I feel more confident and totally persuaded. The courts usually get it totally right so I have faith in the process.
I think in the very beginning, they had the girls phones. And they knew about the late night texts to an ex boyfriend, who lived across the road. And they probably assumed it was a targeted hit from an ex, who snapped that night.

Thus it was more of a domestic violence thing, and so not a threat to the general public. Then all the ex's were ruled out...
 
It won't settle anything. So re-running the labwork is not the issue any longer.

No one is disputing the actual DNA labwork. The Prosecution did not run the DNA themselves, it was done at the Idaho State Police Lab. No one is claiming THEY did it wrong (especially as now there is a buccal swab and it matches Kohberger precisely, as it should).

The dispute is over a game of match. The letters from the sheath DNA results (all those ATCG's) gave a close relationship hit from a data base of millions of people who are contributing, voluntarily, their DNA to forensic work. To catch criminals. I'm about to upload mine to Othram, as well. Othram has its own forum here on WS and has been instrumental in solving many crimes.

What the Defense wants is something that was done by a non-thinking, non-notetaking computer. A giant spreadsheet, if you will. In which only a computer did the work and spat out the results. They want the "work product" of a computer.

Think of it like typing your name into a word document, then passing the document to someone else. Each person types in their name.

Then you use the search function to look for your own name. Should the FBI have taken a screen shot of this? Why? It always works the same way. No one takes screen shots of things like that. Instead, once the match was made, FBI had the percentage number of the match. A number that looks something like this:

23% identical to [Joe Kohberger]. (We know there was a match to a Kohberger, I made up the first name). For comparison, I have a 1% match with over 3000 people. I'm still related to them - but that wouldn't help much in a task like this one. What proof can I show that 1% is too low to be an effective match? None. Indeed, it could be a big lead in other circumstances. If my DNA was used, there would be one person (my daughter) who matches me 50% and two women (my half-sisters) who match me 23% and 25.2$ respectively (they also match my daughter at about 12-13%). Then there are about 1000 people who are my cousins (first, second, third and fourth - often 1-3x removed). If Kohberger were my cousin - he'd be in that smaller group. The fact that both names are Kohberger is helpful but it could have been a different last name.

IOW, all this stuff I just wrote - is it evidence? Is it work product? Or is it just common sense? I say it's just common sense. It's like asking some to "show their work" when 1+1 = 2

How does one show the work product for 1 + 1 ??? Would love to hear some answers - but I have never gotten any ones I can understand. People want to grab two items and show me and count - that's not "work product." That's common sense object lessons.

FBI did not build the database. FBI does not own the propietary decision-making 0's and 1's that run the database.

FBI did not find a Kohberger and tell them to submit DNA to Othram (or whatever service).

This was done voluntarily by whatever Kohberger submitted their DNA results. As far as we know, Othram never ran any results in a wet lab (they DO have the ability to do it - but their website says that's in really unusual circumstances; their main goal is IGG).

FBI did not tell the Othram-Kohberger to give their DNA to Othram, this was done voluntarily (and Othram is an entirely forensic - service, they make it VERY clear that the voluntary submission of one's results from a DNA test WILL be used to capture criminals - that's the whole point of this particular dBase, which I believe they used).

My problem with all of this is that apparently, the Defense wants the DNA results from the actual person (Joe Kohberger). Those are medical records. They were given to Othram for one purpose - not for sharing with the public. It's sad, but this tactic by the Defense will likely cause fewer people to upload their existing DNA results to IGG sites. I suppose that's the point. I'll continue my own campaign to get as many people as possible to get their results (somewhere) and then upload them to reputable IGG companies.

FBI put their stranger DNA ACTG report into a database that analyses ACTG's across millions of submissions and computes matches mathematically.

It's all just math. And very very simple math at that (not even college algebra needed). It's the sheer number of those letters (600,000 analyzed per submission x 1-2 million submissions) that means a computer must do it. A human would keep losing track and it would take years for them to get the results. Computer does it in a couple of seconds.

IMO.
Also, by policy the GG search is anonymous, and LE does not have access, they only get the output to their query.

For what AT is alleging, Orthram labs would need to be using a non-opted in data base contrary to DOJ policy.
 
Status
Not open for further replies.

Staff online

Members online

Online statistics

Members online
165
Guests online
552
Total visitors
717

Forum statistics

Threads
608,322
Messages
18,237,684
Members
234,342
Latest member
wendysuzette
Back
Top