A couple of answers, and a part of the puzzle that has been nagging at me that I don't believe has received much discussion.
1) Per DD earlier this thread. Why Herring? What is the risk reward ratio?
When you think about it, the risk reward ratio is very favorable. There are two characteristics of this road that makes it very interesting. A) It is within walking distance of practically everything. B) Despite this, that specific patch of road is dark, secluded, and crowded by forestation.
It is the best of both worlds, really. it gives the killer a perfect place to discreetly park the vehicle and leave. From what all the locals seem to say, it is not a commonly used road, so low probability of a witness happening by. Even if a witness is driving away, at night, they'll be using their lights, and will be easily spotted from far away--at the first sign of a witness, the killer can keep driving and double back, or circle round without much worry of being noticed. And when the killer does make the drop, in seconds he can disappear into the trees. This means there is a very small window during which the killer would be identifiable on the spot, with a very low probability of that occurring.
And when the drop is made? He's still only a few minutes from wherever he needs to go. If he pulled the girls over somehow and had to leave his vehicle behind, he can walk to his car. If he somehow took control of the victims on foot, he's probably no more than a twenty minute walk from home and that's probably the longest estimate.
He melts into the woods and is where he needs to be within minutes without being detected. I think there are one or two other roads like that in Ozark, from what I saw on the Google Earth pic, but Herring is perfect for this purpose.
2) Did the girls stop at fast food? I find this unlikely because if that were the case, I think we would know by now. From the looks of it, this case received a lot of exposure. Even if the person attending the girls through a drive through at the time wouldn't recognize them, after all the exposure, It's reasonable to expect that they would remember and come forward with something. Especially if a reward was offered. Granted, fast food, like many service industries, result in lots of customers that your average worker wouldn't remember. But that's during the day. This is the middle of the night in a sleepy small town where I'm sure everyone knows everybody. Middle of the night customers are probably rare and stand out more.
Which brings to mind another thing to think about that makes this less likely. Businesses only stay open if it is profitable to do so. I am skeptical that there are many businesses that could justify staying open past 1130 in a place like Ozark, but I could be wrong. Fast food places are the least likely. 7 Elevens and gas stations more likely (but the GS they did stop off at wasn't even open, so... yeah), and those places all have security cameras, and the girls would be required to go inside resulting in a higher probability of being recognized and reported to the police once the investigation began.
I'm thinking that the Big Little really was the last place they stopped before they met their killer. If they did stop for snacks or drinks, it was either at the BP where they called their friends from earlier that evening, or some time after that, before they entered Ozark. In any case, the fact that no night duty fry cook has come to the police with this information alone makes me doubt it is a possibility.
My question:
What do we think of that shell casing. Right now, I'm trying to in my mind, reconstruct the events that occurred that night. I don't think we have enough information to solve this outright--there seems to be too much evidence that the police have kept under wraps, and besides, i think this is case where the perp was not known to the girls before hand. But reconstructing what happened I think can be done.
The big wrinkle I have is the shell casing that was "balanced precariously" on one of the girl's legs.
We know that the killer shot the girls in the trunk. Two bullets. If we are to believe the late comer witness's account, one of those casings was left on the ground at the murder scene. The other, in the trunk with the girls.
But why is it balancing on the leg? We are talking about a round object on a round object. Let's say this is where the bullet landed after the gun was fired. There is a low probability it would stay even at that moment as casings are ejected at velocity and would therefore bounce or roll off the leg immediately, not balance precariously. Even if, by some miracle, it did stay on the leg, now the killer closes the trunk providing mechanical agitation (which might jostle the casing off), then drives in a muddy area (more mechanical agitation), and then down little traveled back roads which are probably poorly maintained (EVEN MORE mechanical agitation). At this point, we are talking about the stickiest bullet casing EVER!
But if one casing fell out of the trunk, and the girls were effectively shot from the same rage and similar positions, shouldn't both casings fall in roughly the same direction at similar distances? Granted, the odds on this are much more generous, but let's say for the sake of argument, both fall out of the car, and the killer is now policing his brass, after all, casings can sometimes have prints on them, right? Why not both casings, though? Well, maybe he couldn't find the other one, it was dark, etc. So he picks up the one case he can find and... throws it in the trunk where it will be found anyway? And even if this was the case, the casing would still have to survive the ride back to the drop off site over muddy patches and rough back roads.
it's not impossible for the casing to have made it the whole way and stayed put, mind you. But it just doesn't seem like basic physics would support it.
So what's the alternative? The killer placed it there on purpose? But then why only one palm print (he would have had to open and close the trunk twice to place the case on purpose)? Reports have said that the killer apparently left a lot of evidence in the car, but no talk of finger prints. If LE allowed a palm print on the trunk to be reported in papers, I would think they would do the same for fingerprints inside the car. This leads me to believe they didn't FIND prints in the car, which suggests he wiped down after driving the car. if he opened the trunk and closed it twice. There was one time when he wasn't thinking about prints (probably directly right after the killing when his adrenaline is up and he is thinking of getting away from the scene of the crime ASAP), and a time when he IS thinking about prints (after stopping at Herring street where it is dark, quiet, under cover with no witnesses, and he has the luxury of thinking about covering his tracks).
Whatever the scenario, the bullet casing poses a big puzzle. Was it an accident or on purpose? The former seems far less likely because of physics. But if it is the latter, what does that say about our killer and his mindset at the time?