SquiffyRae
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- Joined
- Mar 19, 2020
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So with the info that has come out at the inquest + what we've already found in this thread what are the likely scenarios we're still looking at?
1) All 4 are still alive and living elsewhere under assumed names
2) Some alive/some dead
3) All 4 are dead
1 is a possibility but unlikely. Imo if they either went to the airport or traveled elsewhere in WA/Australia someone would have recognised them even with assumed names/false IDs. If they moved anywhere in Australia someone in some tiny town must have seen the 4 of them travel through on their way there, even if it was only to go to say Adelaide and leave via Adelaide Airport.
2 seems a distinct possibility but the question is who is dead/who is alive? Gary/Simon seems the most obvious candidate to still be alive. He held the spell over everyone so I can see him being able to convince the others to do a suicide pact while he either faked joining in or claimed he needed to be last as cult leader. He also seems to have experience in changing identities so I wouldn't put it past him to change identities again. The only other person who could logically still be alive is Popic, although it doesn't seem as likely.
With 3 I think if all 4 are dead it's unlikely to be a suicide pact. The most logical place to go through with that would've been at the family home which would mean their bodies would've been found within days. Since we haven't discovered any of their bodies it seems logical to me to suggest any of the 4 who are dead are well concealed, either buried deliberately or deep within one of the forests in the SW. If all 4 are dead from suicide or murder/suicide there would be some evidence of where they went to do it. To get to a spot in the forest where a body would be undiscovered after 12 1/2 years you'd need a car. And unless you had a 5th person agree to be chauffeur to just abandon you in the forest a car would've been found on a dirt road somewhere and the area extensively searched. Imo 4-person suicide pact is out. The other explanation for 3 would be if someone else did them in. In which case we need to look at means, motive and opportunity for possible POI.
For me the key things we need to find out to solve this are:
1) Establish who these accounts that keep popping up and promoting the cult's ideas are. Are they Gary/Simon still alive somewhere or are they just new crackpots copying an old cult?
2) Establish who the ticket purchasers are. If they are either of Gary/Simon or Popic who went where and what did they do after that? Since neither of them used cars they must have had some plan to get to wherever they were going. Do we know if police asked if anyone had picked up hitchhikers from Northcliffe or towns along the Prospector's route? The only other alternative is these two people are the person or persons responsible for doing them in and are trying to cover their tracks. Both Transwa coaches and the Prospector depart from East Perth Terminal so imo there is the possibility this could be the FIFO worker and his accomplice meeting up. FIFO guy goes to Kal as normal, other guy goes to Northcliffe to not look suspicious and has another friend pick him up and take him home to Nannup.
What's the consensus among posters here? What seems most likely or worthy of further investigation?
1) All 4 are still alive and living elsewhere under assumed names
2) Some alive/some dead
3) All 4 are dead
1 is a possibility but unlikely. Imo if they either went to the airport or traveled elsewhere in WA/Australia someone would have recognised them even with assumed names/false IDs. If they moved anywhere in Australia someone in some tiny town must have seen the 4 of them travel through on their way there, even if it was only to go to say Adelaide and leave via Adelaide Airport.
2 seems a distinct possibility but the question is who is dead/who is alive? Gary/Simon seems the most obvious candidate to still be alive. He held the spell over everyone so I can see him being able to convince the others to do a suicide pact while he either faked joining in or claimed he needed to be last as cult leader. He also seems to have experience in changing identities so I wouldn't put it past him to change identities again. The only other person who could logically still be alive is Popic, although it doesn't seem as likely.
With 3 I think if all 4 are dead it's unlikely to be a suicide pact. The most logical place to go through with that would've been at the family home which would mean their bodies would've been found within days. Since we haven't discovered any of their bodies it seems logical to me to suggest any of the 4 who are dead are well concealed, either buried deliberately or deep within one of the forests in the SW. If all 4 are dead from suicide or murder/suicide there would be some evidence of where they went to do it. To get to a spot in the forest where a body would be undiscovered after 12 1/2 years you'd need a car. And unless you had a 5th person agree to be chauffeur to just abandon you in the forest a car would've been found on a dirt road somewhere and the area extensively searched. Imo 4-person suicide pact is out. The other explanation for 3 would be if someone else did them in. In which case we need to look at means, motive and opportunity for possible POI.
For me the key things we need to find out to solve this are:
1) Establish who these accounts that keep popping up and promoting the cult's ideas are. Are they Gary/Simon still alive somewhere or are they just new crackpots copying an old cult?
2) Establish who the ticket purchasers are. If they are either of Gary/Simon or Popic who went where and what did they do after that? Since neither of them used cars they must have had some plan to get to wherever they were going. Do we know if police asked if anyone had picked up hitchhikers from Northcliffe or towns along the Prospector's route? The only other alternative is these two people are the person or persons responsible for doing them in and are trying to cover their tracks. Both Transwa coaches and the Prospector depart from East Perth Terminal so imo there is the possibility this could be the FIFO worker and his accomplice meeting up. FIFO guy goes to Kal as normal, other guy goes to Northcliffe to not look suspicious and has another friend pick him up and take him home to Nannup.
What's the consensus among posters here? What seems most likely or worthy of further investigation?