Australia Claremont Serial Killer, 1996 - 1997, Perth, Western Australia - #4

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* Please note if you read my last post, I have deleted it due to my inaccurate information.
Apologies to billywhizz.
Thankyou. *
 
If the other POI's are actually cleared as stated in press, and they do have a dna link from kattakarra and Ciara Glennon crime scenes then it follows - wouldn't they have tested Martial Arts guy?
I am not sure about dna evidence, if dna evidence means that a unique profile can be found, or if degraded dna means it is possible to have enough to match a number of suspects but not one specifically. I know of one case, the west mesa murders where they had a hair sample that could be matched to a suspect but it could also belong to other people, i.e. a percentage of 2% of the population.
Does anyone know about dna samples and how specific they can be?
I guess it comes down to what they have in terms of dna and how specific this profile is.
We'd have to assume MAP has had his DNA taken. Was one of Macro's main POIs in 2008 and police are legally allowed to take the DNA from anyone suspected of a major crime.

So there's 3 options;

1. They don't have DNA and he nor the others have been ruled out
2. They have enough DNA to rule him out with the rest of the main POIs
3. They have partial DNA. Enough to rule out LW, PW, SR etc but not enough to either rule out or match MAP.

Keep in mind;

A. He's never been named publicly so the media can't rule out someone who isn't a suspect. Interesting to note is the media have never made reference to the unidentified MAP, neither to rule him out or talk about him in any way shape or form. Its not as if the media don't read this thread from time to time.

B. If police only have a partial then how did they match to Karra?

If they've barrowed it down enough to either determine a link or high probability then you'd think that is enough to rule MAP in or out.
 
Could it be a military man?
This has been floated before but i thought worth discussing again.
Points for it -
* Army barracks nearby
* Ability to (maybe) lower the girls' guards by merit of being a man in uniform or if off duty by stating "i'm in the army, i'm stationed in the barracks nearby, I can give you a lift home." Common perception of army's duty to honour and protect it's country's citizen's. (Also could be bonus points for charm and looks & status.
* obviously a man with military training would have ability to disarm quickly once the girls' got in the car.
* Abductions happened on weekends - soldiers would most likely be off duty or finishing duties.
* Could mean he's also a regular/local at these nightspots and they might have recognised him and maybe even chatted to him on prior occasions or his friends.
* Possibly through training would have good local knowledge of outer areas, bush etc. Ability to navigate terrain at night. Also strength and ability to carry girls.
* Attention to detail, Military's focus on fastidious attention to detail. i.e. order and presentation. Maybe means he would have the chops for successfully completing a meticulously planned abduction and timing whilst leaving without visible traces.
* Ability to blend in, with that many other officers maybe he didn't stand out and this just wasn't considered a possibility.
* Army being a closed circle, unlikely to want to divulge information freely.
* The murders seem to have just stopped - He could have been stationed elsewhere or even overseas for some time. Or elected to go overseas/elsewhere.
 
'Irwin Barracks Irwin Barracks is an Australian Army base located in Karrakatta, a suburb of Perth, Western Australia. It occupies a 62 hectare site on the western side of the Fremantle railway line.

It was previously known as Karrakatta Camp and Irwin Training Centre.'

- from wikipedia
Link
https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Irwin_Barracks


*The Karrakatta rape that has (purportedly through media) been linked via dna to Ciara Glennon's murder occurred in the Karrakatta cemetery which is in close proximity to the Irwin Army base. *

If the reports are true that police and the fbi profiler sent over from the US believed this attack was the CSK's first abduction then it could fit with a well known theory on serial rapists and killers - that their first attack is close to home, somewhere where they feel comfortable and then as they gain confidence (if not apprehended) they span outwards. The Karrakatta attack could have been close to his 'home' i.e. the irwin base.

'Karrakatta is composed of two distinct areas, due to the Fremantle railway line passing through the suburb. On the south side is Karrakatta Cemetery,[1][2] which began service in 1899,[3] with a small industrial area occupied by monument builders, associated companies and the depot for City of Nedlands.
The other area north of the railway line and Karrakatta railway station is occupied by the Australian Defence Force's Irwin Army Barracks.' from wikipedia
 
The Western Australian University Regiment is an Army Reserve unit of the Australian Army.

The Western Australian University Regiment (WAUR) is the dedicated Regional Army Reserve Training Unit for 13th Brigade.
WAUR is located at Leeuwin Barracks, East Fremantle, on Perth's Swan River, as well as Irwin Barracks, Karrakatta.
WAUR forms part of Forces Command with a mission of delivering directed individual and collective training IOT support, sustain and reinforce the operational capability of the ADF.
WAUR consists of a diverse range of experienced instructors dedicated to the conduct of Reserve Officer Cadet training, driver courses, infantry initial employment training courses, Reserve Response Force courses, and other instructor qualification courses.
WAUR has a proud history of training quality junior officers for service in the Army Reserve, but more recently the main effort has switched to Army Reserve soldier training in the western region.
WAUR staff consists of personnel with operational experience in Vietnam, Rwanda, Iraq, Afghanistan, Timor-Leste (East Timor) and the Solomon Islands.

from their website http://www.army.gov.au/Our-people/U...rigade/Western-Australian-University-Regiment
 
'Campbell Barracks is an Australian Army base located in Swanbourne, a coastal suburb of Perth, Western Australia....

The Special Air Service Regiment (SASR) has been based at Campbell Barracks since the Regiment was first established as an independent company in 1957. Although Campbell Barracks is the home of the SASR, most of the training and selection for the regiment takes place in Bindoon, Western Australia.'

Link from wikipedia

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Campbell_Barracks_(Western_Australia)
 
Regarding the phone call that Don Spiers received that he believes was genuine -

'It was at 2am on a Sunday morning shortly after Sarah went missing. The caller asked him, "Are you Sarah's father?"
Don won't give details of what the man said but he still believes it wasn't a hoax.
The caller gave him a location - 5600ha of dense land and bush. Don went there but the size of the location and the dense vegetation meant looking was "hopeless".'
Does anyone know what area this was?
I seem to recall reading that it was the pine barrens but I can't find the link. I also seem to recall that the army had a training area in the pine barrens or nearby.
Anyone recall anything on this?


link to quote from article - June 1st, 2015

https://au.news.yahoo.com/sunday-night/a/28295405/father-will-never-give-up-search-for-sarah-spiers/
 
Regarding the phone call that Don Spiers received that he believes was genuine -

'It was at 2am on a Sunday morning shortly after Sarah went missing. The caller asked him, "Are you Sarah's father?"
Don won't give details of what the man said but he still believes it wasn't a hoax.
The caller gave him a location - 5600ha of dense land and bush. Don went there but the size of the location and the dense vegetation meant looking was "hopeless".'
Does anyone know what area this was?
I seem to recall reading that it was the pine barrens but I can't find the link. I also seem to recall that the army had a training area in the pine barrens or nearby.
Anyone recall anything on this?


link to quote from article - June 1st, 2015

https://au.news.yahoo.com/sunday-night/a/28295405/father-will-never-give-up-search-for-sarah-spiers/

That's a huge area.
5 times the size roughly of John Forrest National Park.



Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Regarding the location the 2am caller gave to Sarah's father; has anyone ever figured out where this area might be?. Was this area ever searched by police?. I see that Nilgen Nature Reserve covers an area of around 5,600 hectares.

"Nilgen Nature Reserve covers an area of around 5,600 hectares and is located in the west of Australia."
http://www.bonzle.com/c/a?a=p&p=59411&cmd=sp

Google: From Claremont to Nilgen Nature Reserve, Lancelin WA 6044
via State Route 60 - 140 km - 1 h 45 min

Parkie or someone in BF thread said Karnup.

I think this is the best answer (Enzeder's).

There was further discussion, but can't remember the result. Greendevil was going to organise some people to search somewhere - so a final location must have been settled on.

Paul Ferguson in latest Sunday night doco seems to be wandering around an area saying he thinks that she is there, wherever he is.
 
Thankyou billywhizz!
I found the thread page instantly with the link you gave me, very interesting in terms of location and travel time.
I wonder if greendevil and the group did the search and how it went?
I have been looking into geographical profiling which apparently is standard practice now with these kinds of investigations. I think for certain they must have narrowed down the area where he resided at the time of the murders.
I will post a link to an article on it.
 
Thankyou aimtosolve! I seem to recall hearing this before as well. Thanks for your input.
 
Quote from wikipedia article -

'Geographic profiling is an investigative tool that can be seen as a strategic information management system to assist police with the large volume of information throughout an investigation. It concentrates its focus on the geographic aspects of the crime and was developed in response to the demands of solving serial crimes. In response, Rossmo developed a computerized geographic profiling algorithm called criminal geographic targeting (CGT) which assess the spatial characteristics of crimes. It analyzes the geographic coordinates of the offender’s crimes and produces a color map which assigns probabilities to different points for the most likely area of the offender’s home base. CGT has been patented and integrated into a specialized crime analysis software product called Rigel. The Rigel product is developed by the software company Environmental Criminology Research Inc. (ECRI), which Rossmo co-founded.

Geographic Profilers often employ tools such as Rigel, CrimeStat or Gemini to perform geographic analysis. System inputs are crime location addresses or coordinates, often entered through a geographic information system (GIS). Output is a jeopardy surface (three-dimensional probability surface) or color geoprofile, which depicts the most likely areas of offender residence or search base. These programs assist crime analysts and investigators to focus their resources more effectively by highlighting the crucial geographic areas.


Crime Pattern Theory

Developed by Canadian environmental criminologists Paul and Patricia Brantingham, the theory exerts the strongest influence in geographic profiling. It suggests that crime sites and opportunities are not random. There is an emphasis in the interaction between the offender’s mental map of spatial surroundings and the allotment of victims (target backcloth).

Furthermore, serial crimes are the easiest to develop geographic profiles, since each crime contains new spatial information and provides additional data including the fact that crime area tends to enlarge with an increase of comfort and confidence. The initial hunt and criminal acts are most likely to occur relatively close to the location of the offender’s home or workplace. As the success rate increases, there will be a burgeoning sense of confidence to seek his prey further from home and to travel a greater distance. Crimes that are suitable for analysis are those that are predatory in nature and exercises some spatial decision-making process such as the area for hunting targets, travel routes, mode of transportation and even body dump sites.[6]

Another leading researcher in this area is David Canter whose approach to geographic profiling detailed around the circle theory of environmental range. In 1993, Canter and Larkin developed two models of offender behaviour: marauder and commuter models. The distinction is that marauders operate in an area that is in close proximity of the offender’s home base while commuters commit crimes far outside of the habitual zone. It hopes to differentiate the two types of serial offenders by studying the relationship of the criminal spatial behaviour to the offender’s place of residence.'


link - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Geographic_profiling
 
ok according to the map i found:

If he abducted Sarah spiers to Karnup - 61.8km south from claremont.
Or if it was lexia pine plantation in Gnangara - 57km north from claremont.
Jane Rimmer to wellard - 44km
Ciara Glennon to pidpidinny road - 60.4km north from claremont.
 
Interesting read Indigo, I remember watching a documentary a while ago which was designing similar software based off of honey bees. yup you read that right, Bees! Scientists studied the behavior of bees, how far they travel from the hive to collect pollen over a certain period of time and the location choices for pollen collection and from this were able to develop an algorithm that can link serial killers to specific crimes and help identify possible dump sites with a fair degree of accuracy.



Murders committed by serial killers may not be considered rational, but there is growing evidence that the locations in which they commit their crimes and dump their victims may be guided by an implicit, if limited rationality. The hypothesized connection between honey bee and killer located a number of disposal site choices of serial killers and led to predictions that (a) their criminal domains would be around their home base and relate to familiar travel distances, (b) they would have a size that was characteristic of each offender, (c) the distribution would be biased towards other non-criminal activities, and (d) the size of the domains would increase over time. Examination of the geographical distribution of the sites at which 126 US and 29 UK serial killers disposed of their victims' bodies supported this hypotheses. It was found that rational choice and routine activity models of honey bees could explain the spatial choices of serial murderers. It was concluded that the locations at which serial killers dispose of their victims' bodies reflect the inherent logic of the choices that underlie their predatory activities.


The area mentioned as a possible SS dump site certainly looks like it could fit the CSK pattern, very similar in distance from Claremont.
 
We'd have to assume MAP has had his DNA taken. Was one of Macro's main POIs in 2008 and police are legally allowed to take the DNA from anyone suspected of a major crime.

So there's 3 options;

1. They don't have DNA and he nor the others have been ruled out
2. They have enough DNA to rule him out with the rest of the main POIs
3. They have partial DNA. Enough to rule out LW, PW, SR etc but not enough to either rule out or match MAP.

Keep in mind;

A. He's never been named publicly so the media can't rule out someone who isn't a suspect. Interesting to note is the media have never made reference to the unidentified MAP, neither to rule him out or talk about him in any way shape or form. Its not as if the media don't read this thread from time to time.

B. If police only have a partial then how did they match to Karra?

If they've barrowed it down enough to either determine a link or high probability then you'd think that is enough to rule MAP in or out.

Unless they need something in addition to DNA to convict him.

Really good point about the media. <modsnip>
 
The match to the rape victim could be linked by many other things other than DNA, fibres, the supposed paint particles, cords used for binding e.t.c

However they obviously have enough of a DNA sample to rule some suspects out but not all so it is def not a complete DNA sample unless like 88mph stated, they have a match but now require more evidence because a DNA match on it's own is not enough for a conviction.

I too also find it strange that other than the CIA doc and 1 or 2 articles inspired by that doc that there hasn't been much attention at all from media about any other suspects, PW and his taxi driver friend and LW were so extensively covered you would think now they are cleared that media would put attention on other suspects.

Now! how likely that all or most of these other assaults were committed by the CSK?

1994, October: A woman (31) entered a taxi near Club Bayview. A man hiding in the back of the taxi grabbed her. She jumped out and broke her leg.
1994, New Year's Day: A man dragged a woman from her car after she left Club Bayview. He attempted to sexually assault her but she fought him off.


1995, February: A girl (17) left Club Bayview - she was tied with electrical cord and left for dead in Karrakatta Cemetery. She had been abducted walking home from the club.


1996 (Jan 27): Sarah Ellen Spiers (18) - never found - first to go missing. She left Club Bayview - last seen in telephone booth, Stirling Highway, Claremont. Police believe a golden sunflower key ring may help find Sarah.


1996 (May 3): Woman (21) indecently assaulted in laneway behind Club Bayview. 2am assailant ripped her skirt off and her head was bashed against a wall six times before she fled.


1996 (Jun 8): Jane Louise Rimmer (23) found murdered in bushland at Wellard, 35km south of Perth, last seen Continental Hotel.


1997 (Mar 14): Ciara Eilish Glennon (27) disappeared from Stirling Highway, Claremont. Had been at the Continental Hotel that night. Body found at Eglinton, 45km north of Perth, on April 3. Missing from the body: a silver Claddagh brooch.


so the first assault in the back of the taxi, I doubt that is linked because it's the only one with 2 known accomplices. but the rest certainly look like the progressing from attempted sexual assault > committing sexual assault > murder...

the area being considered affluent one wouldn't expect to see so many sexual assaults (or attempts) in 1 location would they? was that known to be a rough area on weekends?
 
The match to the rape victim could be linked by many other things other than DNA, fibres, the supposed paint particles, cords used for binding e.t.c
The only person claiming there is a link and has a source is Bret Christian. He clearly said the link is DNA.

However they obviously have enough of a DNA sample to rule some suspects out but not all so it is def not a complete DNA sample unless like 88mph stated
DNA has not been confirmed. They may have it, they may not. Until we know for sure we need to keep an open mind


How likely that all or most of these other assaults were committed by the CSK?
He'd have to have done some of them, probably most of them you'd think.

the area being considered affluent one wouldn't expect to see so many sexual assaults (or attempts) in 1 location would they? was that known to be a rough area on weekends?
It wasn't rough at all. Despite some people (who never frequented Conti or Club) trying to claim lots of people from outside the area fequented these 2 bars on Fri and Sat nights, or that army guys frequented these places, I can tell you that is simply not true.

There was nothing rough about Claremont. Some flats down Davies road were a bit povo and apppatently there was some houso in Mt Claremont, but violence and crime were not common. Just a lot of sex crime at the time. I'm thinking maybe 2 guys were working the same patch at that time.
 
How can they link 'dna found on CG' to karra but be unable to 'rule out' all suspects? I attempt to explain:

Here is a very overly simplified dna profile comparison looking at 12 alleles at 6 STR loci, where ** indicates suspect sample left on CG.

Loci. A. B. C. D. E. F
Poi1 (1,2) (2,5) (3,4) (4,7) (5,6) (6,7)
Poi2 (3,4) (4,5) (5,9) (6,8) (8,9) (9,9)
CG** (3,4) (4,5) (5,6) (6,7) (?,?) (?,?)
Karra (3,4) (4,5) (5,6) (6,7) (8,4) (9,3)

Poi1 can be excluded as only 1 allele matches.

Poi2 can not be excluded as 6/8 alleles match the partial profile from CG**

Karra profile is consistent with the CG** profile at the known loci (8/8 match)- can not be excluded- possible forensic link depending on population allele frequencies - determine probability of two unrelated people sharing the same profile- is it 'significant'?

Poi2 is a partial match to Karra (8/12) - can not be excluded- may be due to a familial link- determine probability

P.s we assume all males in example

In the USA, A full dna profile consists of 13 loci (STRs) or 26 alleles, with 15 or more alleles being cause for familial DNA testing.
 
in my opinion i think the ds have a solid DNA sample after the karrakatta rape, after all she did run straight to the hospital ,not only that but they also have a crime scene
the [australian]reported perth police asked the bobbys in london for DNA records of mark dixie why if there is no DNA ?
did the CSK do this
the family of missing bannockburn mother lorrin whitehead fear her bizarre disappearance may be linked to the claremont serial killings the family revealed she attended IONA CATHOLIC COLLEGE and only recently reverted back to her maiden name, she vanished on feb 8th 2013 ,and what of robin santen another to just vanish ,i think this bloke is still at it
 
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