I presume this is what you discuss?
DNA
Warrants for DNA in Australia
Regarding the official rules for obtaining a warrant for DNA in Australia... It seems that the police in Australia can compel you to provide DNA if they "believe" you have committed a serious crime. Wow... This surprises me as an American. This means that the WAPOL warrant for DNA from Weygers is rather insignificant in terms of discerning whether WAPOL actually had DNA from the CSK.
http://www.legalaid.wa.gov.au/Inform...formation.aspx
DNA and LW
WAPOL pursued LW for many years. This is a reasonable challenge to the idea that WAPOL has DNA evidence. I think the most likely explanation is that WAPOL may only have DNA from Karrakatta and the forensic link to Karrakatta wasn’t made until 2008. It has been reported and suggested that LW was cleared around this time… Maybe the partial or major reason WAPOL took so long to discover the Karrakatta link is because the DNA from that scene didn’t match LW and they were convinced that he was the CSK.
Importance of the possible partial DNA match
What are the probabilities associated with each level of DNA sample completeness?
Per J35: In the USA, A full dna profile consists of 13 loci (STRs) or 26 alleles, with 15 or more alleles being cause for familial DNA testing.
1. Is there a chart that shows the probability of any random individual matching a certain number of alleles to a given DNA sample?
2. How many alleles are available in most partial DNA samples and what is the normal range and variance of this number in available historic cases? Is it common for a 'partial DNA sample' to include 6 alleles? Would a 2-allele sample even be called a partial or would that just be thrown out?
If we assume the police have an average-sized partial DNA match then maybe we can develop a rough understanding of how significant that kind of DNA evidence would be as a tool for the investigation. If a common partial DNA sample is 6 alleles and this is really only useful for eliminating 40% of the male population, that would be much less significant than the normal layman's conception of the influence of DNA evidence on an investigation.
Connected Crimes
These are ordered by probability of connection, but it may be just as well to think about the chronology. I think Papertrail had a good post about this located at this link:
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sho...ralia-2/page57
1. Karrakatta Cemetary
Date: 1994, February 12, Saturday
Abduction location: Gugeri St, Rowe Park
Rape location: Karrakatta Cemetary
Tools: Van, bindings, blindfold
Distance from nearest other victim: ?
Probability of connection: 90%. Bret Christian reported a 'forensic link' had convinced police of the connection. The timing, locations, victim profile and major details of the MO fit well with this being either earlier in the series or a precursor crime while the CSK was still in a less-developed stage of his criminality.
Notes: Had been to Club Bayview
Biggest clues/takeaways from incident: Probable DNA, description of car (van), suspect is probably familiar with cemetery, uses ligatures, suspect “left her for dead” but in a place where the body would be found so he must not have planned to revisit it. Must have been left out of expediency, carelessness, or some other reason.
Questions: How did he hurt her? What kind of weapon/strike was used?
2. 'Bashing' behind Club Bayview
Date: 1996, March 3, Sunday
Attack location: Church Lane, behind Club Bayview
Tools: None that were reported
Distance from nearest other victim: 1 mile
Witness description: Unknown to me
Probability of connection: 75%.
Notes: Had been to Club Bayview. Head bashed 6 times into wall, skirt ripped off.
Biggest clues/takeaways: suspect isn’t an expert at violence, suspect is reckless, improvises.
3. Drunk teenage girl who recently came forward (published in The Post)
Date: 1991 ("5 years before first known CSK victim")
Abduction location: Carpark opposite the Cottesloe Hotel
Attempted rape location: Abandoned Lakeway drive-in theater in Swanbourne
Tools: Station wagon
Distance from nearest other victim: ?
Witness description: hard whiskers, felt older than the men that she had been with, "must have been sat least 30"
Probability of connection: 50%. This would be higher except the girl was so vulnerable that I feel she could have attracted any opportunistic sexually-driven man who happened to see her. It was also so many years before the canonical 3 victims and the chances of a connection decrease with each year of separation. I say that she was vulnerable because she was in her late teens, wearing a tight top and tight short skirt and was left in a parking lot by her friends in a clubbing area since she was too drunk to function. She did say "he must have been watching me" and this was in a drinking scene in Claremont which fits the CSK profile.
Notes: She says at one point in the attempted rape "he attempted to pull down my skirt" which does not necessarily match what we know about LW's sexual proclivities. She escapes his grasp twice which does not fit my conception of a martial artist attacker. There is no mention of violence other than the implication that he was controlling her movement, so it seems that at least in this stage of the attack he was not eager to cause non-sexual physical harm. It surprises me that the attacker didn’t simply hit her in the face or knock her out to coerce compliance.
Biggest clues/takeaways: Victim gave good witness description details that he had hard whiskers (seemed older i.e. 30+) and that he groped her *advertiser censored* while she was passed out
Questions: Is the Cottesloe Hotel anything like the Claremont club scene?
4. Canonical Victim #1 Sarah Spiers
Date: 1996, January 27, Saturday
Abduction site:
Dump site:
Distance from nearest other victim: 1 mile
Notes: Had been to Club Bayview
5. Canonical Victim #2 Jane Rimmer
Date: 1996, June 9, Sunday
Abduction site:
Dump site: Bush land, Woolcoot Rd, Wellard
Distance from nearest other victim: 1 mile
Notes: Supposedly had been to Club Bayview but not certain to me.
6. Canonical Victim #3 Ciara Glennon
Date: 1997, March 14/15, Friday/Saturday
Abduction site:
Dump site: Track in the scrub, Pipidinny Rd, Eglington
Distance from nearest other victim: 1 mile
Notes: Bart asked, "did she walk by Club Bayview?"
There is a gap in these dates: 1992-1993. I think the killer was active during this period and I want to focus on possible connected crimes from that time. I also think 1994-1995 contains more of his crimes as he was obviously accelerating at that point.
Mechanics of the Crimes
Method of abduction: blitz attack, consensual pickup, taxi or combination
I posted my original case theory before the media announced that WAPOL has supposedly come to the conclusion that the method of abduction was via blitz attacks. After this announcement and the connection to Karrakatta I now think that the blitz attack was the most likely method. It matches the MO from Karrakatta and the police seem to have other reasons to believe in this theory as well.
How did the CSK setup for the blitz attack
How long did he wait outside his car?
Where was he parked in each case?
Did he drive there before that night and prep the spot?
What weapon or physical strike did he use?
How did he minimize the sound?
Dump Sites
How were they chosen?
Were they deliberate?
Why weren't they buried?
Do you think the killer visited the sites afterwards? Why or why not?
Co-Location of Jane Rimmer (JR) and Sarah Spiers (SS) bodies
Geographic profiling and the Rossmo formula, which is a mathematical approach to deriving a serial killer's home from the sites and correlations of his activities, seem to have real scientific integrity. I would like to understand how frequently a serial killer who dumps victims will dump multiple bodies at the same site and what drives this behavior. I noticed that Papertrail's article in thread #4, post #762 says the following about Jane Rimmer's dump site: "the bush was so thick that officers could not examine the crime scene properly"... Sarah Spiers (SS) was the first body and was never found, so could the killer have taken Jane Rimmer (JR), the second body, to the same area out of a sense of habit, familiarity and confidence?
Could local users please describe the likelihood of a body going unfound for all of these years if it was buried or dumped near the Jane Rimmer dump site?
Does anyone have any knowledge of the frequency by which killers dump multiple bodies at the same dump site? Obviously we have to adjust the frequency calculation to take into account the idea that a killer would not dump another body at a previous dumpsite once that dumpsite has been discovered.
POI Notes
Note: I think we probably would be better off focusing on the evidence, theories, etc instead of POIs.
Judo Man (JM) and the officially named suspect who practiced martial arts
There is a real possibility that Judo Man (JM) could know who was being referred to in the CIA documentary. According to posts here from users who have seen his Facebook:
- JM was in tournaments as early as 22, and likely was involved in martial arts in the ten years leading up to the murders
- The suspect named in the CIA documentary was 34 years old when JM was 34-36 (depending on interpretation)
- They were both in Perth, at least during the murders. Population in 1996 was 1.3 million.
- The 34-year-old suspect was involved in martial arts to such an extent that he was partially identified by this description
- JM is heavily involved in martial arts as well according to users here who have seen his Facebook
- JM and the suspect are both English
- JM and the suspect were both presumed or confirmed to be near Claremont
I'm not saying JM is the suspect and I'm not saying he knew who was suspected before it was announced, but there is at least a reasonable chance that he may have been able to figure out who was being referred to after the fact.
I wonder if there is available data from tournaments or other rosters related to martial arts from 1994-1997 that would have had 34-year-old martial artists on them.
Martial Arts Practitioner
I don't see how someone who practiced martial arts or Judo in particular could have been responsible for the 1991 abduction. Or Karrakatta. Or the failed bashing. Would have to be a terrible 'martial artist'...
From my original post:
Droc (Noel Coward) & TT (Taxi Tony)
- Exhibits all the signs of an unworthy, unreliable attention-seeker
- Matched claims to existing, known details and connected dots with incredible claims that the killers alternately confessed to him, groomed and recruited him, led him to a secret factory lair, etc.
- Offered no unreleased details that were later confirmed by police
- Story makes no sense. Snuff films do not exist. A junkie ring would have been caught.
In favor of Droc:
TT does not seem to dispute the claim that he picked up a fare from Club Bayview on the night of the crimes.
Droc was able to impel two seemingly respectable friends with established backgrounds to advocate for him.
Questions
1. Which other serial killers committed abductions in such close proximity to each other and what did this tell us about the crimes and/or the offender?
2. Which other unsolved (or solved) case do you think is most likely to be connected to the CSK?
3. Why Club Bayview? Is this particularly easy to stalk/access/view?
4. Could someone please clarify which days of the week each victim went out and was abducted? I.e. Did they go out Saturday but technically get abducted on Sunday because it was past midnight?
5. What day was the ' bashing' incident? Does anyone have more information on this crime?
6. Do clubs in Claremont, especially Bayview, usually operate on weekends only, or is there a Thursday night or other night that they are open?
7. How many victims were wearing skirts?
8. What are your biggest takeaways from each crime and each possible connected crime?
http://www.websleuths.com/forums/sh...er-1996-1997-Perth-Western-Australia-4/page56
Incorrect. The dump site has been clearly marked out earlier on in this thread (possibly incarnation #4).
This is a prerequisite of everything you have posted after this so I will duly disregard. Thanks for spending your time though. Much appreciated.