Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, NSW, 12 Sept 2014 - #24

[bearbear]

these statistics are from an american website but the survival timeline is probably universal...

The first hour is the most critical. If a child is truly abducted and not a runaway, if they are NOT found within that hour the chances of them being found, or found alive diminishes with each passing hour. After 72-hours most law enforcement personnel hope for the best, but expect the worst.

https://www.quora.com/Kidnapping-an...ge-with-each-incremental-day-that-theyre-gone

 

[wewillgetyou]

these statistics are from an american website but the survival timeline is probably universal...

The first hour is the most critical. If a child is truly abducted and not a runaway, if they are NOT found within that hour the chances of them being found, or found alive diminishes with each passing hour. After 72-hours most law enforcement personnel hope for the best, but expect the worst.

https://www.quora.com/Kidnapping-an...ge-with-each-incremental-day-that-theyre-gone

Those statistics would be influenced by who kidnapped the child I would think

 

[sosocurious]

Thanks for posting these are the key points

SUSPECTS in the abduction of William Tyrrell are being secretly watched away from the public glare of the country’s most baffling missing persons case.

The man leading the hunt for little William, Detective Chief Inspector Gary Jubelin, said there had been a lot of activity play out in public — but there was much more happening behind the scenes.

“We’re doing a lot of things that don’t hit the public’s attention and go just as hard on people. As I sit here, we’re doing covert investigative strategies on a number of people,” DEt Insp Jubelin told Tracy Grimshaw on A Current Affair.

There are almost 700 people in the sights of investigators. Some are of more interest than others, partly due to the way they had come to police attention.

http://www.news.com.au/national/nsw...d/news-story/4239f71c950a75f1305457c9e62ca43a

I'm very concerned we are dealing with a massive child *advertiser censored*/paedophile ring or something like it. I can't think of other motives that would involve this many individuals and require covert operations. I hope and pray my concerns are unfounded.

I am with you.
Rosann and Rosann 2 is makes me think Tuno and Tuno 2

Tuno one built up the picture of the Sydney Criminal network and Tuno 2 the extention to what was the biggest murder investigation.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/how-a-murderous-empire-was-brought-down-20111217-1ozpa.html

Rosann child abduction builds the picture.
Rosann 2 undertakes the investigation into what could be the biggest ???
imo

 

[Deleted member 102539]

so who was in williams grandmothers garden that day? was it a neighbour, or bs delivering a machine part ?
someone with a reason to be there?
his footprints didnt leave the front of the property

bbm
The car with the U-turn when returning to the property (left street side) between point A and point B (koios #52) - one driver (maybe elderly, man/woman) - one younger agile helper who snapped WT .....??

PS: I never heard if FF's car had similarity to one of the POI's cars? Did they use a similar car to deceive little WT?

 

[SouthAussie]

I am with you.
Rosann and Rosann 2 is makes me think Tuno and Tuno 2

Tuno one built up the picture of the Sydney Criminal network and Tuno 2 the extention to what was the biggest murder investigation.
http://www.smh.com.au/national/how-a-murderous-empire-was-brought-down-20111217-1ozpa.html

Rosann child abduction builds the picture.
Rosann 2 undertakes the investigation into what could be the biggest ???
imo

Certainly seems that could be the case.

Primary investigation into the abduction
Primary suspect a 'known' pedophile (historic accusations/charges and perhaps other unknown-to-us allegations)
Leading to the uncovering of a network of rock spiders - via loose associations or similar memberships - that cannot be ignored
So a secondary investigative team is established.

This would enable the primary team to continue in a focused manner on their main objective.


The angst seen on others faces could be the result of the secondary investigation, and not directly related to William's disappearance (the primary investigation).

 

[SouthAussie]

Just to add to this ^^^^

If there is indeed a secondary investigation running to nab those that have been uncovered during the investigation into William's disappearance, that would also account for the news about a 'substantial' news conference last Monday.
Not only a substantial reward, but also a substantial investigation into many other perpetrators - hinted at by the announcement of a secondary team, and by the emphasis on overt and covert operations currently taking place.
Could be we'll have a headline one day that hundreds have been caught in a pedo ring distributing and sharing images, and maybe worse.

Good pickup, gregjrichards and soso.

 

[kiwi50]

One possible scenario that has been suggested is that WT might have gone to somewhere near the roadside to look out for his father returning.
Would a child of 3 doing this be more probable to go to A, or B, or C ?
Image source http://maps.six.nsw.gov.au/
(You can get higher resolution at that site, white is lot boundary, I added yellow lines originating at area WT was last seen).

I think he would go to where he knew dad would park the car when he returned. Entirely possible he heard a car coming and raced out thinking it was his dad.

 

[Karinna]

Just to add to this ^^^^

If there is indeed a secondary investigation running to nab those that have been uncovered during the investigation into William's disappearance, that would also account for the news about a 'substantial' news conference last Monday.
Not only a substantial reward, but also a substantial investigation into many other perpetrators - hinted at by the announcement of a secondary team, and by the emphasis on overt and covert operations currently taking place.
Could be we'll have a headline one day that hundreds have been caught in a pedo ring distributing and sharing images, and maybe worse.

Good pickup, gregjrichards and soso.

I'm trying to understand the "secondary" investigation to nab those uncovered into WT's disappearance? What were the police doing before WT's disappearance to nab those involved in crimes against children? I'm sure those types of perpetrators were around long before William Tyrell's disappearance, and there is nothing we are aware of as far as i know that a paedophile group/ring snatched WT for their nefarious purposes.
The million dollar reward to me means they really don't know what happened to WT and are hoping for some new leads, otherwise they wouldn't need to do that if they know who has WT, if that's even the case?

 

[Karinna]

these statistics are from an american website but the survival timeline is probably universal...

The first hour is the most critical. If a child is truly abducted and not a runaway, if they are NOT found within that hour the chances of them being found, or found alive diminishes with each passing hour. After 72-hours most law enforcement personnel hope for the best, but expect the worst.

https://www.quora.com/Kidnapping-an...ge-with-each-incremental-day-that-theyre-gone

If WT's abduction was a stranger abduction i think there is very little hope he is still alive as per your linked article. A stranger abduction of a child is usually done for really bad reasons, and they are usually sexually abused and then murdered, and sometimes just sexually abused.
To keep a child after a stranger abduction is not what usually happens, and i certainly don't think if that is the case with WT in such a high profile case someone is taking good care of him. Sadly.

 

[Eloise]

Stranger abductions almost never mean a child kept alive, especially for years.
Possible? Yes, it's happened before.
But it is rarer than rare. It's nearly fantasy.

The only genuine hope that WT is alive is that he is with family.

Even the 'hope' that he was taken for a pedophile to use long term is little hope indeed. They usually 'use' children already well known to them, and the long term mental health consequences of that situation really mean I can't 'hope' for that outcome either.

 

[Karinna]

Stranger abductions almost never mean a child kept alive, especially for years.
Possible? Yes, it's happened before.
But it is rarer than rare. It's nearly fantasy.

The only genuine hope that WT is alive is that he is with family.

Even the 'hope' that he was taken for a pedophile to use long term is little hope indeed. They usually 'use' children already well known to them, and the long term mental health consequences of that situation really mean I can't 'hope' for that outcome either.

Exactly. As you say the only hope is family has him, but then i don't see how they would keep him hidden for so long without some kind of detection.
And didn't police say family have been ruled out? I'm sure by now some 2 years later they have had plenty of time to look at any extended family as well? And knowing you are possibly under LE surveillance and scrutiny would be a very nerve wracking way to live knowing you are harboring a missing child in a high profile case and knowing the consequences of that if you are caught, way too risky IMO. I just personally don't see it as that is what happened to William.

 

[Eloise]

I guess it's a matter of defining family? Given the complexity of WT's background, you could maybe build some flexibility into that definition in this case.

The sad thing is if I let go of the possibility that that's who has him, I have to come around to accepting the poor kid has probably been dead for two years and I'm not okay with that

 

[crabstick]

Prisoners have said he wont survive prison. He has already had boiling water poured over him.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/20...ller-brett-cowan-wont-survive-jail-exprisoner

http://www.news.com.au/national/que...s/news-story/e14807bf931f019cfe92501ed5a4596c

It's horrific what this monster has done I hope and pray he never walks free again he is very dangerous and is absolutely a predator who will attack again.

 

[crabstick]

Could someone pull it off in New Zealand? Stuffed without a birth certificate?

Exactly. As you say the only hope is family has him, but then i don't see how they would keep him hidden for so long without some kind of detection.
And didn't police say family have been ruled out? I'm sure by now some 2 years later they have had plenty of time to look at any extended family as well? And knowing you are possibly under LE surveillance and scrutiny would be a very nerve wracking way to live knowing you are harboring a missing child in a high profile case and knowing the consequences of that if you are caught, way too risky IMO. I just personally don't see it as that is what happened to William.

 

[SouthAussie]

I'm trying to understand the "secondary" investigation to nab those uncovered into WT's disappearance? What were the police doing before WT's disappearance to nab those involved in crimes against children? I'm sure those types of perpetrators were around long before William Tyrell's disappearance, and there is nothing we are aware of as far as i know that a paedophile group/ring snatched WT for their nefarious purposes.
The million dollar reward to me means they really don't know what happened to WT and are hoping for some new leads, otherwise they wouldn't need to do that if they know who has WT, if that's even the case?

I think we have enough police resources to take care of immediate crimes that are apparent.

I don’t believe that we have enough police resources to seek out and track down every creep, on a regular day-to-day basis.

When an incident occurs where more creeps are potentially discovered (2nd pawn shop in a teeny tiny town/computers taken/mattress taken/GAPA), and if those creeps are discovered to network with other creeps - that cannot be ignored. Nor can it be handled by the squad that is focusing on William.

That’s all I mean.

 

[sosocurious]

NSW Police Force's child abuse squad is responsible for investigating almost 5000 alleged cases of sexual and physical abuse against children each year.

The squad was recently renamed after being previously called the Joint Investigation Response Team.

Part of the rebranding has led to an increase in arrests and a better public awareness about child abuse.

"We need to ensure that people who know something, do something," he said.

Many of Newbery's officers work in the same space as the Department of Family and Community Services and NSW Health.

The state is split up into four zones and each is headed by an inspector who oversees the investigations in that region.

http://www.smh.com.au/nsw/child-protection-the-hardest-job-in-nsw-police-force-20141029-11dn5z.html

All the talk of the JIRT and they were renamed in 2014.
Well I did not know that.

 

[sosocurious]

I'm trying to understand the "secondary" investigation to nab those uncovered into WT's disappearance? What were the police doing before WT's disappearance to nab those involved in crimes against children? I'm sure those types of perpetrators were around long before William Tyrell's disappearance, and there is nothing we are aware of as far as i know that a paedophile group/ring snatched WT for their nefarious purposes.
The million dollar reward to me means they really don't know what happened to WT and are hoping for some new leads, otherwise they wouldn't need to do that if they know who has WT, if that's even the case?

"Over the last five years we've had an increase of about 60 staff," Mr Newbery said.
However, that is coupled with an increased caseload.
"We get roughly between 4,500 and 5,000 matters referred to us for investigation each year. It's a significant workload," he said.
Earlier this year, one New South Wales detective conceded it took him two months to search the home of former dance teacher Grant Davies, who later pleaded guilty to 47 child sex offences.
The officer blamed the number of cases on his desk at the time.
NSW Deputy Ombudsman Steve Kinmond told the group that the state's Child Abuse Squad (CAS) has had positive results in recent times, significantly increasing the number of interviews and arrests it makes.
"The number of interviews conducted by CAS in 2014 was more than 50 per cent higher than those conducted in 2012," Mr Kinmond said.
"By the 3rd of December 2014, the Child Abuse Squad had made 733 arrests during the calendar year, compared to 455 in 2012. An increase of more than 60 per cent."

http://www.abc.net.au/news/2016-06-15/child-abuse-squads-and-experts-roundtable/7514216

 

[PainExpress]

Prisoners have said he wont survive prison. He has already had boiling water poured over him.

http://www.9news.com.au/national/20...ller-brett-cowan-wont-survive-jail-exprisoner

http://www.news.com.au/national/que...s/news-story/e14807bf931f019cfe92501ed5a4596c

Awesome isn't it. We've got great criminals in Queensland. Some with a conscience and a will provide punishment not just justice.

Sent from my SM-G930F using Tapatalk

 

[Violet77]

If the family & "extended" family had been ruled out from early stages, why was NC named as a POI in that article about the possible Queensland sighting?


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Karinna]

I guess it's a matter of defining family? Given the complexity of WT's background, you could maybe build some flexibility into that definition in this case.

The sad thing is if I let go of the possibility that that's who has him, I have to come around to accepting the poor kid has probably been dead for two years and I'm not okay with that

BBM, I have no idea about anything much of WT's background and the family dynamics into what happened as to why WT was removed from his biological family. None of us are privy to that information that i'm aware of? We also don't know who WT has been in contact with away from his family since when? When he was an infant? How long ago was he removed from his bio parent/s? IMO i would say WT has lived the better part of his life with FP's?
And i don't think anyone is ok. with a deceased 3 yr. old child, but it sure is a possibility in an abducted still missing child 2 years later, and if a stranger abduction as we have been led to believe then its not looking good.