Australia Australia - William Tyrrell, 3, Kendall, Nsw, 12 Sept 2014 - #56

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Another member here posted this on another thread.
Kell1 is verified law enforcement and kindly gave permission for me copy two posts from that thread.
A lot to think about, I’m quite stuck on the average age of sexual offenders, is there any poi in Williams case say 25 to 35?

Just some general factors common in most child abduction homicides to consider


If you were to apply most states' general guidelines to classify "sexually violent predators", the majority of these individuals would fit the profile outlined in such hence their existence.


-The Offender is usually in the area of the abduction for legitimate reasons, they usually live or work nearby or this may be a normal route for them to travel in their daily activities



-The mean age of the offender in most of these cases, is 27 years old, but that works upon a slide rule (22-32) depending on factors such as incarceration time and time in treatment, or the military etc..


-Approximately 70% are white males



-Almost always these crimes are perpetrated for sexual reasons.



-The offender usually has a criminal history most often with a focus on crimes against children, (not always, adult victims are not uncommon) but these will almost always of a sexual nature, these may however have gone unprosecuted, for several reasons



-Often labelled as "Social Marginals" they are usually considered "oddballs" or "weird" and aren't usually above suspicion in such cases, with a tendency toward sociopathic behavior, In many cases, they are suspected almost immediately.


-Weak social bonds, may have what they consider "friends" in a mitigated context


-Most have an identified disorder, usually sexual, but also behavioral , slightly fewer abuse intoxicants.


-Often frequent residence changes (moves) in their past , prior to the incident, usually at least 1 within a year prior to the incident.



-Offender usually acts alone



-Offender is unknown (stranger) to the victim in most cases, but only slightly less are acquaintances



-Slightly less than half are unemployed or underemployed at time of incident



-Occupation is usually blue collar considered "unskilled" or "semi skilled" . with construction being the most prominent industry



-Usually live with parents or a family member



-Unmarried or in any type of intimate relationship at time of incident


-Offender, is usually not in any kind of legal custody status at the time (Probation/Parole etc..)



-Victim is selected usually as a target of opportunity, physical characteristics other than gender and size usually bear little weight in victim selection.



-Physical force is the most common method used to secure the victim, followed by con/ruse



-Offender used a vehicle in approx 98% of abductions, where the victim was found deceased (Note to parents: Teach children to avoid vehicles at all costs, and to either get out of it or disable the vehicle , or draw attention to it if they find themselves in that situation)



-Stressing events prior to , play much less a role in child abduction murders as opposed to abduction murders of adults, than we once thought, these individuals tend to be more like "killers in waiting" , then angry retaliatory types.


-In only about 10% of cases, (not related to serial cases) has the offender committed a prior murder of a child, and only about 6.5 % had previously kidnapped a child. .



-The Victim is often abducted less than .4 Mi from their home, they are usually transported greater than 5 Mi from the abduction site



-Victim is usually alone at the time of abduction, to a lesser extent with friends


-Overwhelmingly the victims are usually white, female, mean age of approx 11 years old. (the younger the victim the more theres a propensity for the offender to ba an aquaintence or family member)



-The Murder site is often less then 200 feet from the body recovery site



-The victim is usually deceased within the 1st 1-5 hours following the abduction, about 76% were killed within 3 hours of the abduction, and almost 100% within 24 hours , this is important to note because most children aren't reported missing until 2-4 hours following the actual abduction, which means in the majority of cases, the victim is deceased before they are even reported missing (the 1st 48 does not pertain to child abduction cases, the time frame is much smaller)



-The offenders name usually comes up within the 1st 48 hours, is usually known to investigators within the 1st week of the investigation, though not necessarily as a suspect.



-As we are now learning with the emergence of all these cases, being solved by DNA, the offender often commits further crimes of a sexual nature, though often short of murder, in many cases. (Investigative consideration should be considered in ALL crimes of a sexual nature to collect and submit DNA and do a THOROUGH background investigation on individuals suspected of such crimes, as well as anyone interviewed and perhaps not considered a suspect this is extremely important as many of these individuals have committed prior crimes, but were not prosecuted or caught )
 
Continued

No I haven't, but in general the profiles of the types of individuals that commit abduction murders of children for sexual purposes, doesn't change much at all.

Sure there are exceptions, like time spent in prison , but in general, its usually someone in their late 20's early 30's that lives or works nearby. It might also be someone who travels through that area regularly. (IE they usually operate in area they are somewhat comfortable with)

The victim is targeted just because there are no adults, the presence of other kids usually wont deter them once they have committed to the action.

The motive is so often sexual i'm almost tempted to say "always" but science has taught me not to.

A vehicle is used in the overwhelming majority of abduction cases (teach your kids to never approach a vehicle with lone adult ESPECIALLY if that adult is a male, whether they know them or not, and to fight like hell to get out of one if they are put in it)

The offender almost always acts alone.

The Victim is most often deceased within 1-3 hours of the abduction, which is alarming, because MOST cases where the abduction wasn't witnessed an initial report is made approx 2-2.5 hours after the child was actually taken. Which means in MOST cases, the victim is already dead before they have been reported missing .

The victim is usually transported over a mile

The body recovery site (I hate to use the word "dump" it takes away from the dignity of the victim) is often well known to the offender, that's where he stands the greatest chance of being seen

The body recovery site and the murder site are often the same area, if you think about it its much easier and less riskier to move a live victim, even after they have been assaulted. If the police find them alive with the abductor, its not a murder charge. If they're found with a dead body, its a murder charge.

For this reason, many victims are assaulted and killed in a vehicle, or taken somewhere they wont be seen, for the same fate, which explains why strangulation is the most profound method of killing a victim. Because of evidence transfer methods such as stabbing/cutting, bludgeoning or shooting a victim are usually done outside a vehicle, though it has happened.

The victim is usually hidden to avoid detection as long as possible

The offender in many cases, returns to visit the body site, usually within 48 hours of being left there. Sometimes "re-live" the event, sometimes to simply to see if the body is still hidden well enough to be undetected.

There will be an array of post offensive behaviors that to the trained eye will stand out, theres usually a sudden and intense interest in the case, they'll often change their appearance, they'll gain or lose weight, they may increase the use of intoxicants, they may "shed" or inexplicably get rid of certain items with little to no explanation, they may offer clues, such as being in that area that day but deny any involvement, as a type of pre-preemptive defense "Wow I was there that day, I didnt see anything" or offer outright false information , they may actually confide in someone, they may offer to help the investigation, And as often is the case, they may all the sudden move out of the area.

This model is so consistent many agencies begin with this and build off it in these types of cases.
 
I apologize I didnt read through the 30 pages so far , but Just so I have the facts in this case, correct,

Per Wikipedia


"On 11 September 2014, three-year-old William Tyrrell, his foster parents, and his five-year-old sister travelled four hours from Sydney to visit his foster mother's mother in Kendall. His foster grandmother's house on Benaroon Drive is directly across the bushland road from the Kendall State Forest, about 35 kilometres (22 mi) south of Port Macquarie.[8] Between 10:00 and 10:25 am on 12 September, Tyrrell and his sister were playing hide-and-seek in the front and back yard, while his foster mother and foster grandmother were sitting outside watching them. His foster mother went inside to make a cup of tea; she became worried after she had not heard him for five minutes and began searching the yard and house. Shortly after, Tyrrell's foster father returned after going to Lakewood on business and began searching the street and door-knocking neighbours.

At 10:56, his foster mother phoned 000 emergency services to report him missing and the police arrived at 11:06.[9] His foster mother's last memory was that Tyrrell was imitating a tiger's roar ("raaaarrrr") while running towards the side of the home, and then there was silence and he had disappeared. His mum looked for him but to no success.[10]

Tyrrell was in foster care at the time of his disappearance "

Is this correct ?
 
purpleandgreen said:
I'm afraid he's going to be forgotten, War. :(:(:(
Click to expand...

I doubt we’ll allow that to happen P&G.. there’s so much power in the collective. And there’s a ‘collective’ here for William that spans the seas.
We need to stay vigilant & vocal. Somewhere out there at least one person knows what happened to this little child . .. at 3 years of age, a precious little man just starting to emerge in his personality. He deserves so much better than to be ‘forgotten’.
( just to make known - I have no association with William or any of his family members )
Having said that, I can’t even begin to imagine what they must be dealing with.

Bless you All in this New but still health challenged Year, please stay safe.
 
Kell1 said:
I apologize I didnt read through the 30 pages so far , but Just so I have the facts in this case, correct,

Per Wikipedia


"On 11 September 2014, three-year-old William Tyrrell, his foster parents, and his five-year-old sister travelled four hours from Sydney to visit his foster mother's mother in Kendall. His foster grandmother's house on Benaroon Drive is directly across the bushland road from the Kendall State Forest, about 35 kilometres (22 mi) south of Port Macquarie.[8] Between 10:00 and 10:25 am on 12 September, Tyrrell and his sister were playing hide-and-seek in the front and back yard, while his foster mother and foster grandmother were sitting outside watching them. His foster mother went inside to make a cup of tea; she became worried after she had not heard him for five minutes and began searching the yard and house. Shortly after, Tyrrell's foster father returned after going to Lakewood on business and began searching the street and door-knocking neighbours.

At 10:56, his foster mother phoned 000 emergency services to report him missing and the police arrived at 11:06.[9] His foster mother's last memory was that Tyrrell was imitating a tiger's roar ("raaaarrrr") while running towards the side of the home, and then there was silence and he had disappeared. His mum looked for him but to no success.[10]

Tyrrell was in foster care at the time of his disappearance "

Is this correct ?
Click to expand...
It seems to be pretty much correct, other than the boy's sister was only about a year older than him, and she was 4 at the time.
 
StarrChance said:
Another member here posted this on another thread.

Kell1 is verified law enforcement and kindly gave permission for me copy two posts from that thread.
A lot to think about, I’m quite stuck on the average age of sexual offenders, is there any poi in Williams case say 25 to 35?

Just some general factors common in most child abduction homicides to consider


If you were to apply most states' general guidelines to classify "sexually violent predators", the majority of these individuals would fit the profile outlined in such hence their existence.


-The Offender is usually in the area of the abduction for legitimate reasons, they usually live or work nearby or this may be a normal route for them to travel in their daily activities



-The mean age of the offender in most of these cases, is 27 years old, but that works upon a slide rule (22-32) depending on factors such as incarceration time and time in treatment, or the military etc..


-Approximately 70% are white males



-Almost always these crimes are perpetrated for sexual reasons.



-The offender usually has a criminal history most often with a focus on crimes against children, (not always, adult victims are not uncommon) but these will almost always of a sexual nature, these may however have gone unprosecuted, for several reasons



-Often labelled as "Social Marginals" they are usually considered "oddballs" or "weird" and aren't usually above suspicion in such cases, with a tendency toward sociopathic behavior, In many cases, they are suspected almost immediately.


-Weak social bonds, may have what they consider "friends" in a mitigated context


-Most have an identified disorder, usually sexual, but also behavioral , slightly fewer abuse intoxicants.


-Often frequent residence changes (moves) in their past , prior to the incident, usually at least 1 within a year prior to the incident.



-Offender usually acts alone



-Offender is unknown (stranger) to the victim in most cases, but only slightly less are acquaintances



-Slightly less than half are unemployed or underemployed at time of incident



-Occupation is usually blue collar considered "unskilled" or "semi skilled" . with construction being the most prominent industry



-Usually live with parents or a family member



-Unmarried or in any type of intimate relationship at time of incident


-Offender, is usually not in any kind of legal custody status at the time (Probation/Parole etc..)



-Victim is selected usually as a target of opportunity, physical characteristics other than gender and size usually bear little weight in victim selection.



-Physical force is the most common method used to secure the victim, followed by con/ruse



-Offender used a vehicle in approx 98% of abductions, where the victim was found deceased (Note to parents: Teach children to avoid vehicles at all costs, and to either get out of it or disable the vehicle , or draw attention to it if they find themselves in that situation)



-Stressing events prior to , play much less a role in child abduction murders as opposed to abduction murders of adults, than we once thought, these individuals tend to be more like "killers in waiting" , then angry retaliatory types.


-In only about 10% of cases, (not related to serial cases) has the offender committed a prior murder of a child, and only about 6.5 % had previously kidnapped a child. .



-The Victim is often abducted less than .4 Mi from their home, they are usually transported greater than 5 Mi from the abduction site



-Victim is usually alone at the time of abduction, to a lesser extent with friends


-Overwhelmingly the victims are usually white, female, mean age of approx 11 years old. (the younger the victim the more theres a propensity for the offender to ba an aquaintence or family member)



-The Murder site is often less then 200 feet from the body recovery site



-The victim is usually deceased within the 1st 1-5 hours following the abduction, about 76% were killed within 3 hours of the abduction, and almost 100% within 24 hours , this is important to note because most children aren't reported missing until 2-4 hours following the actual abduction, which means in the majority of cases, the victim is deceased before they are even reported missing (the 1st 48 does not pertain to child abduction cases, the time frame is much smaller)



-The offenders name usually comes up within the 1st 48 hours, is usually known to investigators within the 1st week of the investigation, though not necessarily as a suspect.



-As we are now learning with the emergence of all these cases, being solved by DNA, the offender often commits further crimes of a sexual nature, though often short of murder, in many cases. (Investigative consideration should be considered in ALL crimes of a sexual nature to collect and submit DNA and do a THOROUGH background investigation on individuals suspected of such crimes, as well as anyone interviewed and perhaps not considered a suspect this is extremely important as many of these individuals have committed prior crimes, but were not prosecuted or caught )
Click to expand...

Before you can apply the rules of these types of crimes, (any crime really) to a case, you must first be sure that this is indeed what you are looking at .

I dont usually review international cases, because im unfamiliar with the laws of the country in question, or the investigative procedures etc....

In speaking on crime I can only compare and apply to these cases, what I know from here in the United States.

So please take it with a grain of salt

Crimes, need to be correctly categorized, before a label can be slapped on them , I've said this repeatedly about those quick to label murders "serial murders" , simply because they seem out of the ordinary

Before we can classify Williams disappearance as an "abduction" it needs to be examined as a "missing persons" case

Though the profile I explained on the other thread remains constant, in most cases, it only applies to instances, where we know for a fact this was indeed an abduction.

If not , Its like applying the knowledge of cats to dogs if you will.

Anyway

"In Australia, an estimated 20,000 children are reported missing every year.
Australian Federal Police, National Coordination Centre."

This case, is interesting, you have a child that has gone missing from around an adopted relatives residence, in broad daylight, with no witnesses and very few if any leads, almost no evidence, he appears to have just vanished.

Biological parents forfeited their rights, for undisclosed reasons, Bio father is now dealing with a dependency issue .

Both the foster parents, and biological parents have been cleared .

So in reality what we are dealing with is a missing persons case, the fact is has been allowed to be deemed an "abduction" at this point I feel lends to the issues in solving this child disappearance.

Whenever we have a missing person, child/adult etc, you need to go back and do whats called an victimology assessment, essentially a background investigation, the victim, In which we dig deep (basically profile) the victims life/lifestyle.

We do this to see if there any clues to why they had become a victim.

With a 3 yo child in foster care that's tough, to do , theres not much "life" to look back through , but things that should be looked at are school records, medical records, speak with friends about anything he might have talked to them about . Writings, drawings, any medications , likes, dislikes, fears, changes in medications, any psychological counseling notes if there are any.

Why profile the victim?

For example, investigating the disappearance of a 12 you girl, on it face appeared to be simply a case, of a runaway, she was having problems at home, taking drugs, run ins with the law, it wasn't uncommon for her to be missing a day or 2 , both parents had an alibi for the time she went missing, looking back into her personal items, writings she made indicate your typical angry teen. She simply seemed to vanish

However looking into her medical records, investigators found she was recently prescribed anti depressants, when they talked to her physician, they disclosed, that she had been being molested by her live in uncle (who left soon after she disappeared) for years

Now the investigation takes a whole new direction.

Once we understand the victim, we can move onto why they were victimized, and often clues to their fate can be found in their history.

The first people you interview are those who were the last to see him, they need to be questioned separately, their alibis need to be checked multiple times, their backgrounds need to be investigates just as the victims is , once that has been exhausted you do it over again.

From there you move outward

First you need to understand abductions by strangers are exceedingly rare , the represent about 0.1% of abduction cases ,here in the US, however close to 90% of reported abduction cases, are familial abductions.

If this is an abduction (stranger) William represents probably the lowest risk and rarest victim profile of those abducted by strangers. He falls however in to the 44% range of missing kids abducted by family (or caregiver)

Children under the age of 5 (who are subsequently murdered) only represent approximately 10% of abductions by strangers to begin with.

53% of the time in familial abductions, the responsible party is the Father or male caregiver. Males represent 66% of of offenders in all familial abductions

As a matter of fact, the highest number of victims abducted and murdered in Williams age bracket are by Friends/Acquaintances, of the family, however those are usually female.

Young males (0-10) are abducted by strangers very infrequently

Murders in this age bracket were almost always by family members (or caregivers)

Foster care isnt always "better " it flies under the banner of nobility, and that the notion that removing a child from one home will place them safely in another, but that sadly is not always the case, as a system it goes largely unchecked.

One startling fact, is there is a 42% higher mortality rate for all children in foster care compared to those in traditional family settings, with 2.1 % dying from abuse or neglect as opposed to 1.6 % of the general population. Abuse by fosters is much more likely to unreported, under reported , and often overlooked by the courts

In cases, of abuse (not saying this was the case, but to be considered) males were most likely to be killed

In comparison,

Overwhelmingly the child victims of stranger abduction (who are murdered) are females around 11 yo, (around 74%) that doesn't mean males aren't abducted, they absolutely are, but the most common age bracket for males abducted by strangers is around 12-14 . William represents a fractional margin of overall abducted victim demographic of those taken by strangers.

The area of the abduction in stranger abduction cases, is often within .5 miles from the home, but rarely at the home itself .

These factors flip heavily however in cases of Familial abduction, in which 36% take place at the home, 37% in another home or residence.

A good rule of thumb is the younger the victim, the closer you look.

In this case, you have a EXTREMELY low risk child go missing after an unplanned trip to the foster parents mothers house, the child was reported missing pretty quickly, quickly, id like to hear that phone call to the police.

This would be extremely high risk for a stranger.

If I read correctly , 2 hours later the foster father returns from making a "phone call" (always pay attention to those who are conspicuously absent and why) and he begins to help by going door to door.

I will admit seeing some of the interviews the foster father had with the police, and he did demonstrate some body language indicative of being untruthful about certain things .

If they're untruthful about some, they're usually being untruthful about quite a bit more .

<modsnip: Not victim friendly>

I didnt write this to debate with anyone, just to bring up some factors to consider

Thanks
 
Kell1 said:
His foster grandmother's house on Benaroon Drive is directly across the bushland road from the Kendall State Forest,
Click to expand...
That's not literally correct, but it is close to bushland adjoining the forest.

Kell1 said:
Tyrrell and his sister were playing hide-and-seek in the front and back yard,
Click to expand...
Unclear whether they were playing hide-and-seek at all that morning as opposed to a chasey-type game, and unclear whether they were playing together or where the sister was when William ran around the corner and disappeared.

Thank you for coming along, Kell1.
 
JLZ said:
That's not literally correct, but it is close to bushland adjoining the forest.


Unclear whether they were playing hide-and-seek at all that morning as opposed to a chasey-type game, and unclear whether they were playing together or where the sister was when William ran around the corner and disappeared.

Thank you for coming along, Kell1.
Click to expand...


Welcome thats copied directly from WIKIPEDIA
 
Kell1 said:
If I read correctly , 2 hours later the foster father returns from making a "phone call" (always pay attention to those who are conspicuously absent and why) and he begins to help by going door to door.
Click to expand...
Foster father went out to get better reception for an internet conference around 9am or a little before, and returned at 10:35, so a few minutes or up to half an hour after William's disappearance. There are receipts showing where he was at 10:19 and 10:30. We haven't heard how long his conference lasted.
 
JLZ said:
Foster father went out to get better reception for an internet conference around 9am or a little before, and returned at 10:35, so a few minutes or up to half an hour after William's disappearance. There are receipts showing where he was at 10:19 and 10:30. We haven't heard how long his conference lasted.
Click to expand...


What kind of receipts?
 
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