AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #11

[ExpectingUnicorns]

Because LE are not persons of interest in Isa's disappearance and her parents are.


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From my perspective I believe both LE and the parents are working towards the same goal. It follows, then, that the parents would honor and respect the boundaries that LE set. They wouldn't want to compromise the investigation anymore than LE.

I just don't see the fact that they"re following LE's requests as being suspicious. I dunno.

 

[Lava]

When I came on line tonight I read a post and now I cant even remember the poster that brought it up but since I read it I cant stop thinking about what they said.

But it was about the Celis family being away from their home that night until late.

That would be plenty of time to take a screen off and come in the window and throw treats to the dogs in order to case the place out and hide in the home undetected.

Someone that knew the Celis family would be at the ballpark that night perhaps?

imo

When the parents talked about the childrens rooms needing to be cleaned up professionally after investigators searched I thought that perhaps someone was hiding in their house while they were at the ball game. LE would obviously search the entire house regardless, but it just really gave me the creeps that someone might have been exploring the house. I think I read somewhere that they got home around 9, possibly later. If someone knew they were going to the ball game, they knew they'd have time in the house alone. They probably also knew the family wouldn't be back until late which means 1. They could leave the window screen on the ground because its late and who would see it (do we know if it was inside or outside?) and 2. Everyone would probably be tired so perhaps it is less likely to be discovered. Creepy to think about.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

But why not hide the screen? They wouldn't know if the first thing the dad did, for example, was to go in the yard with the dogs, and then he would see the screen, not to mention see anything wrong with the dogs, and either call the police or search the house with a loaded gun, for all the perp knew...JMO

Maybe they were thinking about going back out the window but went out one of the exit doors instead. The window/screen was at the back and I saw no lighting back there even in the alleyway but I may have missed that part. The screen off wouldnt even be noticed by the Celis' when they came home late from the ballpark because they park in front of the garage or in it.

I really dont know. Creeps like this seem to do very bold things and no one is the wiser until it is too late.

But it does nag at me that they were away from their home for hours that very night.

IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

When the parents talked about the childrens rooms needing to be cleaned up professionally after investigators searched I thought that perhaps someone was hiding in their house while they were at the ball game. LE would obviously search the entire house regardless, but it just really gave me the creeps that someone might have been exploring the house. I think I read somewhere that they got home around 9, possibly later. If someone knew they were going to the ball game, they knew they'd have time in the house alone. They probably also knew the family wouldn't be back until late which means 1. They could leave the window screen on the ground because its late and who would see it (do we know if it was inside or outside?) and 2. Everyone would probably be tired so perhaps it is less likely to be discovered. Creepy to think about.

Oh so you were the poster, thanks Lava, because it sure got me to thinking.

I think they got home much later than that. Sergio is the coach and I think they had a late game. The coach always clean up the ballpark before leaving. I think they probably got home around 10-10:30 ish.

Exactly and if Sergio saw it when he went into her room that morning the perp wouldnt care because he would be long gone with Isa by then.

IMO

 

[SmoothOperator]

Ya know in the reality of the actual investigation into Isa's disappearance what it boils down to is this..
Even if the family are actually and absolutely innocent of involvement and even if LE have nothing at all indicating their involvement and realize that it's quite likely they are completely innocent.. Yet just as LE stated the perp thus far as "adequately" covered their tracks so to speak this giving LE no, new viable avenue to follow, investigate or attempt to rule out or rule in.. That leaves LE with but only one avenue to continue investigating, the immediate family, and family as it branches out..

Until LE can either get a break via tip with viable and true information.. Or in their continuing to revisit the family, what little evidence collected and in that find a grain of detail pointing in another, different direction..
BUT UNTIL ANY OF THOSE THINGS HAPPEN LE MUST CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THE LITTLE THAT THEY HAVE GOT..

And IMO the very little is made up LARGELY OF INVESTIGATING EVERY TINY NOOK AND CRANNY OF THE FAMILY MEMBERS FROM IMMEDIATE ON OUT..

When the answer is still unknown to exactly how and exactly who took Isa LE can only continue to investigate, unable to rule any situation or any one person out FOR ABSOLUTE CERTAIN..

I sadly believe this may be what's at play here... Then again I could be completely way off and LE very much has a número UNO, prime suspect that they are building a case on.. We just don't know and I certainly pray that it's the latter of the above two.. Anyhow these are jmo, tho!


____________________...
Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy:

 

[Indy Anna]

When the parents talked about the childrens rooms needing to be cleaned up professionally after investigators searched I thought that perhaps someone was hiding in their house while they were at the ball game. LE would obviously search the entire house regardless, but it just really gave me the creeps that someone might have been exploring the house. I think I read somewhere that they got home around 9, possibly later. If someone knew they were going to the ball game, they knew they'd have time in the house alone. They probably also knew the family wouldn't be back until late which means 1. They could leave the window screen on the ground because its late and who would see it (do we know if it was inside or outside?) and 2. Everyone would probably be tired so perhaps it is less likely to be discovered. Creepy to think about.

What if the perp was still inside the house when the family got home? I know that possibility has been mentioned before, but perhaps he didn't expect the family home so soon. Maybe he was still in Isa's room when they returned. We don't know if anyone went in her room to tuck her in, or if there's any place in the room where an adult can hide. She could have seen him and he muffled her cry, then took her with him as a hostage in case any of the family woke up and tried to intervene.

As for the dogs, IIRC they were outside, correct? The perp could have slipped something into their water/food to make them drowsy. There are calming tablets you can buy for dogs.

 

[Isabelle]

Nothing on Isa yet. This is horrible!

 

[LisaB]

(snip)
Yes, we know that somehow the news media says he's the uncle. I don't see it anywhere stated by JM on tape, though.(snip)

We never hear him call himself uncle on the tape, or family spokesperson. Both interviews above were on Saturday.

(snip)

He says it on his social media, in photo captions, etc.

 

[mck16]

Ya know in the reality of the actual investigation into Isa's disappearance what it boils down to is this..
Even if the family are actually and absolutely innocent of involvement and even if LE have nothing at all indicating their involvement and realize that it's quite likely they are completely innocent.. Yet just as LE stated the perp thus far as "adequately" covered their tracks so to speak this giving LE no, new viable avenue to follow, investigate or attempt to rule out or rule in.. That leaves LE with but only one avenue to continue investigating, the immediate family, and family as it branches out..

Until LE can either get a break via tip with viable and true information.. Or in their continuing to revisit the family, what little evidence collected and in that find a grain of detail pointing in another, different direction..
BUT UNTIL ANY OF THOSE THINGS HAPPEN LE MUST CONTINUE TO WORK WITH THE LITTLE THAT THEY HAVE GOT..

And IMO the very little is made up LARGELY OF INVESTIGATING EVERY TINY NOOK AND CRANNY OF THE FAMILY MEMBERS FROM IMMEDIATE ON OUT..

When the answer is still unknown to exactly how and exactly who took Isa LE can only continue to investigate, unable to rule any situation or any one person out FOR ABSOLUTE CERTAIN..

I sadly believe this may be what's at play here... Then again I could be completely way off and LE very much has a número UNO, prime suspect that they are building a case on.. We just don't know and I certainly pray that it's the latter of the above two.. Anyhow these are jmo, tho!


____________________...
Posting via mobile as well as via tablet so plz forgive all typos.. Btwn the sucky touch keyboard and the obsessive auto-correct it's a big ol' mess :crazy:

We don't even know if the forensics are back do we? Or if there is any forensic evidence. jmo

 

[LisaB]

On that ABC vdeo-they showed a little bit of footage of Isabel's brothers and the older one says about about 'she was just being a little girl having fun at a party' or something like that. I am pretty sure that is what he said-going to review it again.


What party did he mean??

What he said was PARK. He was the brother of a child she was playing with at the park where the baseball game was held Friday night, IIRC. It was not Isabel's brother. There was no party.

 

[Indy Anna]

Oh so you were the poster, thanks Lava, because it sure got me to thinking.

I think they got home much later than that. Sergio is the coach and I think they had a late game. The coach always clean up the ballpark before leaving. I think they probably got home around 10-10:30 ish.

Exactly and if Sergio saw it when he went into her room that morning the perp wouldnt care because he would be long gone with Isa by then.

IMO

Continuing with the thought in my previous post: if the perp was still in the house when the family returned from the ballgame because he didn't expect them home so soon (suppose he was about to rob them), maybe the perp assumed the family was away for the weekend since no one was home at that late hour. If Isa caught him in her room and he took her as his assurance of escaping, he knew she could still ID him.

 

[SmoothOperator]

That is Smooth's style here at WS. She isn't yelling at anyone. :moo: Been here and posting with her for years.

What scenarios? IF (oops caps there and not yelling 'cuz I'm on my iPad or I would bold, but I can't) I may ask?

yes and thanks Ransom:hug:..and it is almost impossible to bold via tablet.. hence my CAPS is substituted for bolding most times.. lol.. I know that we're all here for the same cause of wanting to see the missing found and brought home and justice served on their behalf.. I think we just have different opinions on how that is to be achieved and that too is OK

 

[cluciano63]

I thought LE said something about forensics once, but I could be mixing up my cases. In any event, I am sure they sent things to the lab for testing. Whether or not anything useful was determined, or if they have results yet, is anyone's guess.

 

[GutFeeling!]

There is one scenario that might make sense, in Segio's defense. I remember when my son used to have late hockey games, when we came home at 10 pm, he was usually starving. So we would have scrambled eggs or something before he went to bed. My DD used to fall asleep already in the car though.
But it is possible that the boys were in the kitchen with dad, eating, because growing boys are always hungry. And she may have walked in and said goodnight.

Where I come from and in my family supper referred to a snack before bed. A piece of fruit, eggs, toast ... something to stop rumbling tummies. Given they were out until 11 and dinner probably happened hours ago dad may have been asking to make sure there was no "I'm hungry/thirsty" visits later.

BUT seriously? Surely a parent admitting (on National TV no less) to asking their child if they want food at any hour is not something that the worst of the worst people do. Especially since they were watching a child play ball, probably handed Isa a hotdog and can of coke for dinner and are now thinking "That was hours ago" Are we that desperate to see our names here that we will drag anything out and dissect it as a sign of guilt or innocence? :banghead:

Not aimed at anyone in particular, just some things mentioned have me questioning my own parenting skills lol

BRB It is 10:18, my 2 year old grandson has just come home from a day out and guess what? I am going to get him something to eat before he goes to bed LOL (seriously lol)

 

[mck16]

I thought LE said something about forensics once, but I could be mixing up my cases. In any event, I am sure they sent things to the lab for testing. Whether or not anything useful was determined, or if they have results yet, is anyone's guess.

It is hard to remember it has only been a little over two weeks. It seems like forever to me. jmo

 

[GutFeeling!]

I like to think I am a pretty good judge of character, but I am in no way perfect and have no problem admitting when wrong. That being said, I am not saying in any way that I think Sergio did something directly to Isa, but I do believe he knows a whole lot more than what he is admitting to.

I do not in any way whatsoever believe that Becky knows anything more than what she has said all along or what she has told detectives. I would almost bet money that she passed the LDT with flying colors, No way would I bet money that Sergio passed 100%.

I totally agree except I will add that while I believe that SC does know something, i also believe it is that kind of feeling that is sometimes left unsaid because he has no proof of it, just his gut churning. I also believe he has made the police well aware of these feelings. Maybe he can't share this with his wife because the relative in question is from her side.

If the police have said to him "we think the same as what you are thinking but we need to get evidence to support that so here is what we want you to do ....." Then he is going to do that.

 

[Zuckerschnecke]

yes and thanks Ransom:hug:..and it is almost impossible to bold via tablet.. hence my CAPS is substituted for bolding most times.. lol.. I know that we're all here for the same cause of wanting to see the missing found and brought home and justice served on their behalf.. I think we just have different opinions on how that is to be achieved and that too is OK

Ransom- double click the shift key fast too keep it on bold! Sometimes we just need to yell!

 

[katydid23]

It is hard to remember it has only been a little over two weeks. It seems like forever to me. jmo

It seems forever to me too. Maybe because I was so closely following the Sierra LaMar case, and was hoping she was going to be found any day....and then I got frustrated with the lack of information, and then this case happened...and now that same feeling is creeping in again....*crickets*:waiting::waiting:

 

[dsntslp]

OT: But since it is kinda' slow...

Good reading for Investigators and sleuthers too.
Especially, when it is time to think outside the box and re-evaluate, IMO.

Criminal Investigative Failures
Avoiding the Pitfalls
By D. Kim Rossmo, Ph.D.
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/fbi/cognitive_bias.pdf


Criminal Investigative Failures
Part Two
http://www.au.af.mil/au/awc/awcgate/fbi/investigation_pitfalls.pdf

 

[gitana1]

:seeya:

JMO but it is the ONLY thing that makes sense !

And LE knows this ... as well as LE already knows this was NO "stranger abduction" ... the evidence, etc. is leading right back to the Celis' home ...

One of the "biggest clues" that the focus IS on the family -- and NOT a "stranger" IMO -- is the fbi Behavioral Analysis Unit was in the home ... they were there for a reason ...

IF LE knew it was a "stranger abduction," IMO, seriously doubt the Behavioral Analysis Unit would be wasting time there ...

lease: I hope there is a break in the case SOON and Isabel is found ...

:moo:

I disagree. The FBI behavioral analysis unit analyzes tons of cases to determine the type of perp they are looking at. They need to see the crime scene or scene of the abduction and part of their analysis is a profile of the victim.

sorry, that's not what i meant...not to talk to reporters about the above laundry list of questions. louis said "i can't talk about such-and-such" and SC/BC have said the same. so my question really is, did the TPD ask the family not to talk about anything specific to reporters...all the while asking them to talk to reporters?

oh i'm starting not to make sense. lol. apologies.

You are making sense.

It does not seem like LE wants the help of TES though, or anyone as far as searches go.

Has anyone asked them if they would like the help of TES?

Maybe POI's to you, but I don't think there has been any persons of interest named. So, you don't believe that the parents have been told not to discuss facts of the case? There has not been one statement by LE saying they want the parents to talk to the press and answer questions about the case. They indicated the reporters would have to ask the family about how they were doing because reporters kept asking LE that question. It was never about critical questions about their case. And as long as LE knows the answers to critical questions why does anyone else need to know? jmo

Actually (and I still believe the parents are innocent), I did hear LE state repeatedly, at pressers, that they had never asked the parents to refrain from speaking to reporters. Then they stated they gave the parents a list of media to speak with if they so chose. Then they stated they felt it may be a good idea and at one point they stated that the family could answer some questions out there.

I don't know if that's a game or what. I actually think LE want to hear them talk and analyze their answers and demeanor. I think they have not ruled them out yet.