I thought that the first real attempt to abduct Isabel came on the night the dogs got loose,the week before the actual abduction. I think the abductor lost his nerve,and took off. He left the gate open as he took off. In this scenario, the abductor is fairly young,and has likely never done this before. He would live close by,probably on the block. MOO
I think he prowls the neighborhood,and probably spent a lot of time planning how to take Isabel, and getting up the nerve to take her. MOO
This story about Isabel sleeping in her brothers' room intrigues me. I wonder if she was scared at night.Perhaps she had heard someone outside her window at one time. Or maybe she just sensed some type of danger...MOO
Also, the abductor is someone who has no need to get up very early on Saturday. He could be up very late on Friday nights... MOO
Your statement about the fear makes sense to me. When I was a child I had exceptional hearing (still do). I could hear a lightbulb before it blew. I was so afraid of what I heard during the night that I crawled in with my older brother every night when my sister was not home.
So, if you are right, I wonder when Isa started sleeping in her brothers room?
I know we don't have the answers to most questions raised but I am hopeful that the Celis family reads here at Websleuths and our questions could jog their memory and help find Isa.
Praying for Isa to come home safely.