AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #13

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Arizona has some interesting ways of invoking Restraining Orders which actually they Don't have a such thing as a "restraining order" they have No Contact Orders, Peace Orders and Protection Orders. Arizona doe's however put "restraining order" type verbage on court documents whenever there is Domestic Violence. Also, in Arizona the State itself can assume DV is at play without a petitioner. ie: BC isn't required to say he did anything all they need is an open case and AssUme a threat. A LEO can simply VERBALLY issue a lawful order to a person to maintain separation until a Judge or Magistrate can have a clerk issue a written order.
 
If something was found/learned in the course of the investigation...I am leaning toward something from an interview, or something on a computer...JMO
 
If I were a betting person I'd put money on LE basically discarding the kidnapper scenario altogether by now. I think they are trying to crack the case by getting physical evidence plus someone inside the family to talk. Someone knows something and that's the 'break' I believe LE needs.

Staged kidnappings do happen. It wastes a tremendous amount of resources for LE to chase after these kinds of cases when it's an "incident gone wrong" within a family and the child's body has been removed and disposed. Police have pretty decent b.s. sensors and usually within a couple weeks of a case they know if they're dealing with an inside job or a real kidnapping/abduction.

The signs they are giving is this is an inside situation and not an abduction.
 
Stash, yes, it was posted and noted, but in this new light of Sergio having no contact with boys, IMO it takes on more signifcance.

No contact means (in addition to not being physically in the same place) no phone calls, no email, no twitter, no letters/notes/written correspondence of any kind, no message sent by another person, absolutely nothing - as if you do not even know your children and they do not know you.

Something very, very serious has to have been found/happened to have no contact at all between a parent and their children.
 
I am thinking out loud. After watching 48 hours about another case. I wonder if the Celis had any kind of insurance on the kids or kidnapping insurance.

I have always felt that this might have had a financial enrichment aspect attached to it. That's IF she's alive. Although it was scoffed at, the idea that a large reward could be claimed made me wonder if someone would try to set this up to do just that, call in a tip and "claim" the reward. I think back all the way to Sergio's original comment at the first media appearance, i.e., "What are your demands?" I mean, who says that?? Then again, who says, "Look at her, she's beautiful" in response to a question about what he would say to her abductors.

Also, regarding the two male voices that the neighor heard at 6:30 a.m., I wonder if one of them could have been the 14-year-old son? Perhaps that is what LE believes and they are trying to get him to open up and feel Sergio has threatened him and thus the no contact order.

Other comments that may support an enrichment scenario: LE's comment that "things aren't always what they seem" coupled with their complete lack of searches; and news reports that schoolmates of the sons were being questioned to see what they may have been discussing in the week before their sister went missing.

But I think it's equally possible, and maybe even probable, that she is deceased because of the dog hit and landfill and waters searches early on. If so, the son could have been involved in any way along the line and the rationale for a no contact directive would be the same.

Last thought: The FBI's Behavorial Analysis Unit is still on the case. IMO, they're the force behind LE's calculated moves and public announcements about the family that are meant to smoke out the truth. The no contact order feels in part like more of the same.
 
Carole .... No Contact orders like this in Arizona do NOT need to be over anything serious at all. All LE needs is to say there is reason to beleave a person is somehow either involved in the crime, obstructing invesigation efforts or in someway a risk to the investigation or the alledged victim. Arizona is one of few states if not the only state in which LE steps up and issues these orders durring an active investigation without a petitioner. Arizona is also considered a police state by most, they are not a state to tango with on ANY type of legal issue. Your assumed guilty until you can prove your innocent.
 
Stash, yes, it was posted and noted, but in this new light of Sergio having no contact with boys, IMO it takes on more signifcance.

Thank you, Prof. I skipped a few pages while skimming to catch up. Before the new contact order info came to light, I would have dismissed the significance of that last quote.
 
Does LE call CPS is an RO is taken out? I guess they would...but aren't RO's public records? Seems media would have dug that out...I don't know.

I don't know about AZ (thankfully), but in NY I had 6 separate ROs against my ex over the course of 4 years. CPS was never contacted, although 3 of the 6 included my minor children in the order.
 
Carole .... No Contact orders like this in Arizona do NOT need to be over anything serious at all. All LE needs is to say there is reason to beleave a person is somehow either involved in the crime, obstructing invesigation efforts or in someway a risk to the investigation or the alledged victim. Arizona is one of few states if not the only state in which LE steps up and issues these orders durring an active investigation without a petitioner. Arizona is also considered a police state by most, they are not a state to tango with on ANY type of legal issue. Your assumed guilty until you can prove your innocent.

Not that I don't believe every word you stated, but do you have code to cite on this? I'd love to see the actual law/regulation/code...

Thanks!
 
Is it known now that the father is the one with the 'no contact' order? Was there a new press release?
 
If I were a betting person I'd put money on LE basically discarding the kidnapper scenario altogether by now. I think they are trying to crack the case by getting physical evidence plus someone inside the family to talk. Someone knows something and that's the 'break' I believe LE needs.

Staged kidnappings do happen. It wastes a tremendous amount of resources for LE to chase after these kinds of cases when it's an "incident gone wrong" within a family and the child's body has been removed and disposed. Police have pretty decent b.s. sensors and usually within a couple weeks of a case they know if they're dealing with an inside job or a real kidnapping/abduction.

The signs they are giving is this is an inside situation and not an abduction.

I agree. I believe they ruled out a kidnapping/abduction very early on. The landfill searches could have been for some evidence; not necessarily a body. Maybe they found something at Las Reales that lead back to the house.
 
The news is on & the command center is still up today. The Find Isabel Celis fb is still there but there hasn't been any updates since the news yesterday. The BBB is warning people to be aware of scammers. They didn't indicate if there were some already, just a warning that scams happen in cases like Isa's.

No word about Sergio or what parent. KOLD 13

(ABC did say "source", I think it's just not updated via the courts until Monday, jmo)
 
Sounds like this whole thing is going to get real ugly real soon!
 
Is it known now that the father is the one with the 'no contact' order? Was there a new press release?

Yes... from http://abcnews.go.com/US/isabel-celis-missing-tucson-girls-father-barred-contact/story?id=16334922#.T69B4OtST5Z

"The father of missing Tucson 6-year-old Isabel Celis has been told by authorities he cannot have contact with the girl's two older brothers, who are now in the custody of their mother Rebecca, ABC News has learned."

(ignore the video on that site... it's outdated. LOL)
 
I did believe their late press interviews, and feel a bit had at the moment, even if premature.
JMO

Feeling a little of that, too. Sounds like LE might have seen through the acting, though.
 
Not that I don't believe every word you stated, but do you have code to cite on this? I'd love to see the actual law/regulation/code...

Thanks!

this link outlines protection / no contact orders .. There is a great deal more written in the State of Arizona Victim pamplet which I can not find online at the moment. If you have ever been involved with the police in AZ you've likely been given a Victim pamplet which outlines exactly what right's the state has involving your rights and what the state can do even if you don't. Trust me been there done that in AZ. The state invoked a No Contact order between me and my partner over a simple argument we had in public.

http://www.supreme.state.az.us/cidvc/ARPOPPresentation.pdf
 
Because, again, I am a brat, I just posted a note on the Find Isabel Celis FB page... noting the silence and remarking on the rough news that broke last night. I may email Steve (founder of the page). I think they may be reading the same writing on the wall we have been deciphering for weeks now. Shame, really. They seriously want(ed) to help... and tons gave up $$, time and efforts.
 
SC was in Court over a 'dog at large' w/o proper vaccinations and tags complaint issued on 19APR2012 and is due back in court 04Jun2012 on the same case. I just wonder if at all this has anything todo with Isabel going missing. That maybe idk perhaps it was a fighting dog, or something of that nature or even perhaps the dog did something to Isabel. IDK probably totally not related but just a thought.... I know people fight dogs down there.
 
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