AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #16

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Okay then said:
Any math whizzes here? I am thinking 12-14 for all the external...verses 4 for Family, SC, RC, JM, and the kids... (did I forget a family member) is telling percentage/statistic wise. jmo
Click to expand...

Devil's advocate again:

4 for family (figure immediate and local family).
12-14 for all known possibly connected operatives of FnF/a cartel.

I'd say it's even odds.
 
If I were going to go into someone else's house for nefarious purposes, I wouldn't just go in. I'm a bit cautious, so I'd study their house, get an idea of their routines and the makeup of the household.

If I saw that there were dogs living there, I'd fill my pockets with something absolutely irresistible to dogs. Like garlic roasted chicken cut up into bits, roast beef in tiny chunks, maybe even buy some freeze-dried liver at the pet supply store.

Within 0.003 seconds, the vast majority of dogs would then regard me as their new best friend forever. Very few people teach their dogs to refuse food from strangers or to refuse food the dog finds in the environment.

One problem solved; I would then be able to move into and out of the house without causing the dogs to bark.

Another plus to this strategy is that the dogs themselves would make sure there was no evidence of scattered treats left.
 
Nvgirl said:
One thing that keeps coming back to me is why did LE say "don't read to much into this" about cps? That is significant to me. Unless he is trying to redirect the public.
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Because, jmo There is evidence to lead them to a suspect, but not enough to charge the person/s who caused Isa to be missing. They wish to do so in the future, therefore, they have to investigate every lead/theory/tip as to not appear to have tunnel vision if they decide to charge a circumstantial case where they may have incentive to try. I think the public is getting frustrated with these questionable Missing Children circumstances...and LE must know that. IMO and :moo:
 
From my perspective, I would not include JM (a cousin to RC from FL) with immediate family to the exclusion of grandparents, aunts and uncles, cousins who are not only closer in the familial relation, but some are closer in geographical location (ie. Sergio's parents),
 
GrainneDhu said:
If I were going to go into someone else's house for nefarious purposes, I wouldn't just go in. I'm a bit cautious, so I'd study their house, get an idea of their routines and the makeup of the household.

If I saw that there were dogs living there, I'd fill my pockets with something absolutely irresistible to dogs. Like garlic roasted chicken cut up into bits, roast beef in tiny chunks, maybe even buy some freeze-dried liver at the pet supply store.

Within 0.003 seconds, the vast majority of dogs would then regard me as their new best friend forever. Very few people teach their dogs to refuse food from strangers or to refuse food the dog finds in the environment.

One problem solved; I would then be able to move into and out of the house without causing the dogs to bark.

Another plus to this strategy is that the dogs themselves would make sure there was no evidence of scattered treats left.
Click to expand...

We have seen two of the three dogs in MSM. They don't look like they are dangerous. I don't even think you'd need any high value treats, any food would work.
The third dog is still a mystery to me, but three dogs were cited in court records.
 
I have been dying to say this. The dog in the news clips in their front door looks just like the dog on UNCLE Justin's Facebook page. That might be why the dogs were ok if it was UNCLE, cause it was his dog. I got a new iPad so I don't know how to copy or paste or I would put the links up. I will try.
I bet he didn't have a place for his dog so it was there at Rebecca and Sergio's house.
 
I don't know Prof or Pieper4, but I was thinking understanding the math is understanding LE. That being said, I Was hoping a *Verified Stats Whiz was here! lol. Can't blame a girl for trying?
jmo
 
The dog in the front door is not the same dog as JM's dog. JM's dog has a white chest,. The dog at the front gate door in the news clip does not.
The dog from the news clip that was passed around by the media is show more clearly here.

at about 2:07

http://video.today.msnbc.msn.com/today/47411451
 
Prof said:
From my perspective, I would not include JM (a cousin to RC from FL) with immediate family to the exclusion of grandparents, aunts and uncles, cousins who are not only closer in the familial relation, but some are closer in geographical location (ie. Sergio's parents),
Click to expand...

I would agree... except he (JM) was at the home the day after the abduction if not prior to the news breaking.
 
azmary said:
CPS visited Isabel's home in December, city police confirm

Read more: http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...9a3-5df6-a4f1-163f280fad8f.html#ixzz1v6xYCuzW
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Wow!
CPS has previous history with the Celis family? as recently as just 5 months ago? or 4 months since Isa disappeared? :what:
That's pretty damning.

"Pacheco said he was not familiar with the details of CPS' involvement with the Celis family, but during the earlier stages of the investigation detectives had spoken to CPS workers about the agency's history with the family.

'I am not aware of why they were summoned there," he said. "I know there was a previous contact there for their agency.'

Details of CPS' contact with the family, and how the agency followed up with the report, remain unclear"


Read more: http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...9a3-5df6-a4f1-163f280fad8f.html#ixzz1v6yyxNQN


Why is this coming out now?
I do feel like LE is slowly turning the screws now.
 
IMO Any previous record of CPS in the home like this, less than six months ago... the home of a pediatric nurse and a little league coach, does not look good in regards to Isa being missing.
 
Pacheco has slipped before giving TMI IMO
 
Okay then said:
Any math whizzes here? I am thinking 12-14 for all the external...verses 4 for Family, SC, RC, JM, and the kids... (did I forget a family member) is telling percentage/statistic wise. jmo
Click to expand...

Very telling... I agree.

I guess a good analogy would be everyone in Tucson area and border areas are ill. The Celis family has 4 doctors to care for them.. EVERYONE else in Tucson/Border areas has to share 12 doctors. Pretty easy to see who is getting more attention.
 
Gotta ask... how many Feds or Marshals in addition to local LE? We don't have a clue.
 
Just stalked RC's FB-- December is pretty empty of posts in general :(
 
Good job Prof! Great observation. I am just trying to think of things I saw in the beginning going back looking for thoughts I was thinking about in my head. That idea always stuck in my head. Maybe Justin goes through dogs like he does vehicles like on his Facebook page. lol
 
pieper4 said:
So has Hawke and the Chief. It's not uncommon. I just found it amusing. Nothing sinister inferred. (by me).
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I never would have thought you were implying or infering.I just added my perspective... I find it amusing too --
I prefer listening to Hawke, then Pacheco then the Chief in that order.
I like them all, but
Hawke is efficient and gets the point.
Pacheco is wordy but provides more more nuggets of information.
The Chief is erm...politically correct.
:D I like em all.
 
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