AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #18

[gubler_love]

i've lurked here for quite some time now, and 5 or 6 years ago used to post here quite often, but i honestly couldn't even remember the name i had back then. life got in the way and i forgot about this place for awhile. that being said... i've been reading along this isa case, and while i haven't been thru thread #17 yet there are a lot of things i've wanted to say but from my phone just seemed way too tiring. now that i'm @ a computer i'd like to share them...

God forbid something ever happen to my child like this. idk if the parents are involved or not re: isa, there are signs that point to yes, signs that point to maybe, and signs that point to no. but until we kno FOR SURE, sometimes IMOO things go a little crazy on here @ times. my son is 8, ADHD, last week on my FB page i posted "started division in math today, my son's teacher must not value my child's life, because yes (child's name), 24/8 is 4, you're right, always, i haven't been doing this 20 years" --- now obv that was a joke. i would NEVER threaten my child's life over division. it was a funny, it was frustration. however, there is NO doubt in my mind if my child was suddenly missing and some of you from this board saw that, i'd be flamed and tore to PIECES. i say random stuff like that here and there, in between pictures of him playing baseball or swimming, along w/ mundane status updates that NO ONE cares about.

a lot of you have talked about the lack of many pics of dad... maybe he's taking the pics a lot of the time? or maybe he's @ work? my son's father is not in a lot of pics, and i'm in even fewer because during the work week, i'm basically a single mother and am taking the pics.

to go along w/ all of that... my father, whom my mom divorced when i was 2, and who i never have been close w/ since but do occasionally visit and who yes, does kno my son, was arrested about 5 years ago from possession of meth making materials. he did 4 months in prison, went to boot camp (for first time offenders here in michigan) and has been clean since. i would hate for it to be automatically assumed that based on that alone that hours upon hours upon hours would be spent here debating a drug ring having to do w/ my child's disappearance if it were to ever happen, when there really was so SOLID evidence of it.

now all that being said... i kno this is a "sleuthing" board. and i kno that if you didn't, what else would you do? but seriously guys, from an "outsiders" perspective, sometimes it gets CRAZY. it's pages upon pages of "theories" based from one itty bitty miniscule detail that likely has nothing to do w/ anything. i think it's fine to say "hey i noticed this" or "hey i noticed that" but to start w/ the parents and then end up sleuthing the dad's grandpa's mom's sister's uncle's twice removed 4th cousin's drug dealing mexican friend who might be part of a cartel gets a little crazy. keep in mind that her family who ISN'T involved, might also be looking for "clues" and might stumble upon this site, and i think it's fair to say they are already in a LOT of pain w/out being completely ripped apart by strangers.

that's all. sorry for the novel. and i sure hope they find isa soon... one way or another. i cannot imagine a greater pain than not only having a child taken from you, but then not knowing what may or may not have happened to that child.

 

[panthera]

I guess, yes, I would first go to the inside breaker box, then I might go outside just to check and see if anything is amiss. I suppose with my thinking, I'm attempting to figure out how anyone found the screen pushed or taken out of Isa's window, and trying to put that together with the electric box.

The circuit breaker box on our house is actually outside next to the electric meter. How I do wish it were inside though!

MOO

 

[Patty G]

it may be full size in comparison to the little ones...but when the window is open, it is not open the full size of the entire window. only the small lower portion. IMO, no way on earth an adult with a child could get thru that....you would have to push the child out then the adult squeeze thru.

is there a photo of the window anywhere with an adult standing next to it?

my perception of the size could be totally off, I admit that!

If there are two adults, a child could be handed out through that window. Although, I do not feel this is the way it happened.

In the Baby Lisa case, there are numerous tries by LE to get into a window, that is not even the same size as this one, and it was higher up. An adult got through the window.

 

[Dee10]

I find the fact that they have been checking on RSO's to show that they did NOT simply zero in on the family, as some have suggested, and if they keep coming back to them, there must be a reason. JMO

That's a good point too. Yes, for court purposes to be able to say we checked out every SO in an X mile radius so as to tie the hands of a possible defense attorney. And I just remembered this, it is standard protocol in a child abduction to start a parallel investigation.

 

[Shelby2]

This is very informative, and a long read. It is from 2006.

"Investigative Case Management For Child Abduction Homicides"
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

 

[LisaB]

- Danielle Van Dam case 2002. Within 3 days the neighbor was the main suspect. He was arrested convicted and sent to death row.

- Polly Klaas 1993. Parents divorced. Polly lived with mom as primary custodial parent. Taken from home during slumber party with 2 friends. Richard Allen Davis eventually arrested, convicted, and is on death row.

- Elizabeth Smart 2002. Taken from her bed while little sister pretended to be asleep.

IIRC, Clint Dunn was cleared, although Billie and her BF have not been.

 

[Patty G]

Yes, thanks. I am just pointing out that there are other possibilities...
He could have been in the den, or the family room since they both have adjoining walls. IMO if there is a TV in the den, that would be the place that is least likely to disturb all of the family, as the den has only one adjoing wall. We just don't know.

Why was I making my point?
It seems that some may be discounting the possibility of a stranger abduction
a. because a stranger would have a hard time taking her out the window
b. because a stranger would not carry her out passed her sleeping father on the couch

I am saying there are other possibilities which would not necessitate taking her out the window, or carrying her passed Sergio...

I am still stuck on the fact that Isa knew the person that removed her from the house.

 

[Sigh Sister]

Hi all. I've been lurking and have a question. Forgive me if it's been answered already. Is it a fact that SC slept on the couch that night? Or is an assumption because he said he was up late watching a game? TIA

 

[Madeleine74]

This must be the first missing person case many have ever followed before. What we're seeing in this case, by LE, is (essentially) what's done in many, many (in fact, most) cases.

LE conducts parallel investigations:

1. Those closest to the victim
2. RSO's or known felons in the area near the victim

They conduct interviews with many people. They gather information. They rule people out as they go. They try to verify alibis. Ultimately they are trying to determine exactly who was the last known person to see or talk to the victim.

At the same time, the forensic/CSI type folks look for physical evidence, financial evidence, anything that can tell why something happened to the victim or lead them in a direction. It takes time to get things tested. If they don't find evidence showing an intrusion then an intrusion starts to look less likely.

And while all of this is taking place, LE says only generic things in press conferences. "Looking at all avenues, going where the investigation leads, have not named a person or persons of interest..."

 

[bogeygal]

This is very informative, and a long read. It is from 2006.

"Investigative Case Management For Child Abduction Homicides"
https://www.ncjrs.gov/pdffiles1/Digitization/201253NCJRS.pdf

Thank you Shelby2 for sharing, very interesting!

 

[marazul]

We don't know what is going on between the parents behind closed doors, outside of the media spotlight. It's easy to assume things based on what any one of us might do IF we were in their shoes...but that's not a useful exercise. We are not them, we are not in their shoes, and we simply do not know what occurred.

We don't know the Celis family, we don't know the parents, and we only know what we're reading or hearing through news reports, which may not be entirely accurate.

An incorrect way to approach a case is to project what we would do or what we might feel onto someone else. No one's personal situation or feelings has any bearing on the Celis case. It doesn't matter what someone else's child did and then how a parent responded or felt. This case, like all cases, is about gathering evidence, and projected feelings will not be part of a case that gets litigated.

BBM I totally agree this is the wrong way for LE to approach a case, but for those of us that are just concerned citizens, it is normal for that to happen, and for us to draw on life experiences and personal truths as tools to try to better understand the activities, reactions, and motives. Also, many of us have followed a few cases and notice statistical consistencies in some things such as 911 calls, parent actions, etc.
I am not an investigator or LE officer, I am just a wife and mom and concerned that this case is solved, so I admit that I don't approach cases in the "correct" way, I can't take my heart and feelings completely out of it. I would make a bad cop for that reason, but this is a true crime forum and I like hearing opinions, feelings, and stories of how others felt and acted in similar or related situations.

 

[mck16]

What smear campaign?
What has LE said, exactly?

"Can't rule out the family."
"SC signed a voluntary agreement with CPS and is not living at home and the children are with RC."
Release of partial 911 calls -- the calls are what they are and nobody embellished their content.

What else? Are the cops smearing SC or is it the public and the media?

The media cameras camp out and capture the comings and goings of the police in and out of the Celis home. That's not the police's fault. Which LE person has gone on NG or JVM or Fox to smear SC? LE has done controlled press conferences that have not really said much of anything.

You are right in your observations re LE so I am wondering what you mean when you say they are focusing on SC. I haven't heard anything to indicate that. Mainly because they haven't said Anything. jmo

 

[Madeleine74]

IIRC, Clint Dunn was cleared, although Billie and her BF have not been.

No idea who those people are or what case they are connected to.

 

[mamamia54]

Hi all. I've been lurking and have a question. Forgive me if it's been answered already. Is it a fact that SC slept on the couch that night? Or is an assumption because he said he was up late watching a game? TIA

SC: No. We got home late from uh, my son's baseball game. You know, about 10:30 last night. Everyone took their showers and they all went to bed. I even was in the living room watching uh, the Diamondbacks game at midnight. ... And I fell asleep and I never heard anything weird. So I was like just on the ... other side of the wall from her.
http://tinyurl.com/d7xmxhr

 

[Madeleine74]

You are right in your observations re LE so I am wondering what you mean when you say they are focusing on SC. I haven't heard anything to indicate that. Mainly because they haven't said Anything. jmo

I mean just that. They are focusing their investigation on SC (and probably somewhat on RC).

 

[mahoolin]

What is the simplest answer here? Cause I'm not seeing it yet. Basically, if someone didn't take her out the window, then someone walked right past a sleeping Sergio. JMHO

Just theorizing here -MHOO

Playing devils advocate, but maybe someone knew SC wasn't there. Maybe he knew he had a specific routine, and would be gone, watched him leave, then made his move.

With many hours spent at the ball field,I'm sure IC was a familiar face and we know the pervs frequent where children are. Who's to say someone didn't swipe dads keys sometime in the past, make copy, then watch for routines. Maybe dad has a secret life not really necessary to expose in a court setting?

Is it a positive the screen was knocked out that night, or was it Out, and just noticed because of IC abduction? I wouldn't know. I don't walk around my house each nite, but mostly keep windows shut too.

Not a for or against any theory at this point, just throwing something else Out there.

Sry for spelling etc, iPad has own mind...Grrr

 

[Prof]

Absolutely. If the sofa is in the den, it would have been much easier for someone to have carried Isabel through the house and out the front door. However, I still believe this person would have to know the layout of the house before entering, know where everyone was, including the dogs, before making such a move.

MOO

I totally agree.
I completely doubt that if it was a stranger, the stranger would have exited through window. IMO if it was a stranger, he would have come in through window, maybe choosing it as it was the last viable window toward the back of house and maybe he'd seen ISA there by stalking the house before. Then maybe since it was the middle of the night, he crept through her door toward the front and out the front door. It seems a fairly straight shot.
I am just saying it is possible, albeit not likely.

The perp who assaulted the three girls? He did so with three adults in the home, and 3 girls in the same bedroom. He came in through the window,he also went into another part of the house and came back to their room, where one girl confronted him and he exited through the house, as far as I remember in the latest accounts.
There were experts outside of Tucson who thought the two cases so close were possibly connected. That is still a possibility that has not been ruled out. IMO.

 

[LisaB]

To say the least, he confuses me. He is sleeping on the other side of her wall, in the living room, yet somewhat dismisses the point of entry/exit as the window. That assumption would have the perp entering through a door and walking right past him to get to Isabel and remove her from the house. Does he sleep that soundly? And a stranger perp walks past a man sleeping on the sofa to abduct the child? What if Sergio had awakened?

I still believe the window was staged, however, am at a quandry why Sergio would make that statement unless he now realizes how improbable it is? Actually how improbable the whole scenario is with him on the sofa?

:waitasec:

MOO

Living room or Family room?

 

[Patty G]

Hi all. I've been lurking and have a question. Forgive me if it's been answered already. Is it a fact that SC slept on the couch that night? Or is an assumption because he said he was up late watching a game? TIA

IMO, SC stated he was on the other side of the wall and heard nothing, so he seems that he slept there all night.

 

[mamamia54]

SC: No. We got home late from uh, my son's baseball game. You know, about 10:30 last night. Everyone took their showers and they all went to bed. I even was in the living room watching uh, the Diamondbacks game at midnight. ... And I fell asleep and I never heard anything weird. So I was like just on the ... other side of the wall from her.
http://tinyurl.com/d7xmxhr

Sorry to quote myself again but it would seem that Sergio by saying livingroom meant familyroom because he didn't say den. Of course he didn't actually say familyroom either, so I'm just assuming. MOO