AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #19

[TxLady2]

Ok, I can speak to this. Once a debt snowball starts rolling, it can become insurmountable very very quicly. If this family refinanced the house or took a second mortgage or had an interest rate reset to a much higher rate, and then missed one of two credit card payments and then had those rates reset to 24% etc etc, then it is very very easy for debt to snowball out of control, fuled almost entirely by interest rates. I've known a ton of people who played this game and lost, some who even took high-interest loans from one area to pay for something in another area, etc etc. I just had a close friend who makes a good living lose at this risky game. He lost his house and had to declare bankruptcy.

Ok, I stand corrected.
We don't use credit cards, but I know many people do and eventually end up owing lots of money that they can't handle. Still, the people I know who have done this, have things to show for it, like the things I mentioned above.

 

[marazul]

As far as I know, we only have what various news stations have felt was important to report out of almost 600 pages of reports.

I am not sure even with all of the reports, that I could draw conclusions about anything that is not there.


What I found interesting on Patty's link this morning:



The gas meter and the electrical box have possibly same footprints on top of both.

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_91fee6b2-df37-5c40-bc2a-20e15fe69299.html

That is interesting to me because it would eliminate a meter reader doing his normal thing, correct? ( not that meter readers stand on utility boxes), but it would be a different company responsible for both so the fact that they may match is interesting, and I personally don't see SC as the workboot type, so who was standing on various utility boxes next to the property?

IMO if the shower curtain turned up to be a key piece of evidence, we would not be reading about it.

The main thing I learned from the new info is that LE has honestly been actively pursuing all leads and scenarios, and I think they are doing a good job.

*IF* SC was involved, I feel that either RC was involved too or RC has NO suspicion of his involvement. IMO regardless of how much we love or trust our spouses, it would make anyone pause and think if their spouse was acting suspicious. By this I mean if this was his first night not coming to bed, if his demeanor on the 911 call was unusal or out of character in RC's perspective, if RC heard him telling LE things she knows to be false, if evidence was collected from her home that she knows was out of place, if all of those things happened and she was not also involved in Isa's disappearance, IMO she would be distancing herself from SC. So, to me, RC's acceptance of him leads me to feel like she hasn't seen any red flags from him, which leads my gut feeling towards his innocence.

My current questions: I wonder if SC regularly stayed late in the family room on nights that RC had to work early the next AM and he didn't. If it was a consistent thing, okay then, but if it was the first time in years that he was out of the master bedroom until nearly daybreak, that is a red flag IMO

Overall I am still with my unpopular and decidedly statistically improbable theory that a stranger abduction happened to a family with a strange but not violent father. All JMO

 

[Prof]

The only MSM source who has reported that JM at some point stayed at the Celis home was the NG show, and it was "reported" from an unidentified source.

Addresses are not part of the court public docs in AZ that I have ever seen on any case.

LE followed up on a rumor evidently from what media has reported so far. Until I see the LE docs state that they questioned a relative who lived there, too...

JMO

 

[mck16]

Well, following that call to CPS, your son wasn't banned from having contact with his children, was he??

LE said in a press conference two weeks ago that there have been other calls to the house, non-CPS related.

My point in posting that was if someone read that CPS had been called in on him without knowing All the facts would jump to an incorrect conclusion. And I think we should wait for the facts before judging SC. His bann was a voluntary one I thought.

Maybe he has been drinking too much. I know I would be. I would probably either be drunk or medicated. And no my son was not banned because it just so happened my other DIL worked for CPS at the time and talked to the case worker, told him if a problem was deemed she would take the baby. As it turned out none of this happened. And the daycare worker that reported him come to find out, was upset with my son for other reasons. She had a crush on him, and he rejected her advances. So, she seized the opportunity. just a personal observation that I am basing my opinion on.

 

[oceanblueeyes]

They searched an uncle's truck, according to the docs. Maybe they did investigate this further and they are holding back those docs.

I truly think they did fully check it out and it led no where.

IMO

 

[Prof]

I totally put my faith in this "rumor." It has been reported in MSM and furthermore, it makes sense. Why WOULDN'T the family let a relative new to the area stay for a while?

JM, the houseguest in question, clearly interacted with the family. He is seen with the Celis kids on his FB page, and his vehicle is parked out front of their home in one shot.

Also important to note is that in the recent document release, LE reportedly searched an uncle's truck. It's my opionion that this was JM's vehicle.

I'd bet money that he is on LE's radar.

The pic on FB is his stepmother who is Becky's aunt, andthe kids.
JM is not an uncle, so if LE reports state uncle, it was not JM.
JMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

My point in posting that was if someone read that CPS had been called in on him without knowing All the facts would jump to an incorrect conclusion. And I think we should wait for the facts before judging SC. His bann was a voluntary one I thought.

Maybe he has been drinking too much. I know I would be. I would probably either be drunk or medicated. And no my son was not banned because it just so happened my other DIL worked for CPS at the time and talked to the case worker, told him if a problem was deemed she would take the baby. As it turned out none of this happened. And the daycare worker that reported him come to find out, was upset with my son for other reasons. She had a crush on him, and he rejected her advances. So, she seized the opportunity. just a personal observation that I am basing my opinion on.

iTA1

I have always felt the reason is not what is commonly thought. IMO, this is for a different reason and we dont know what that reason is.

Oh did anyone that was interviewed say Sergo was an abusive person to his children or wife? Was that in any of the documents?

IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

The pic on FB is his stepmother who is Becky's aunt, andthe kids.
JM is not an uncle, so if LE reports state uncle, it was not JM.
JMO

Ah...good catch so it cant be JM.

 

[TxLady2]

Well, following that call to CPS, your son wasn't banned from having contact with his children, was he??

LE said in a press conference two weeks ago that there have been other calls to the house, non-CPS related.

It is my understanding that this was a voluntary agreement, not court-ordered, so "banned" would be incorrect.
The other calls could be the complaints about the dogs barking as has been discussed in these threads.
This witness making this claim could just be his theory. No way to know if this is true or not. The witness may have just stated this to a reporter, and it means nothing. If it were true, I think LE would be well aware of it by now.
Ok, I'm outta here for awhile, things to do.

 

[Prof]

That is interesting to me because it would eliminate a meter reader doing his normal thing, correct? ( not that meter readers stand on utility boxes), but it would be a different company responsible for both so the fact that they may match is interesting, and I personally don't see SC as the workboot type, so who was standing on various utility boxes next to the property?

IMO if the shower curtain turned up to be a key piece of evidence, we would not be reading about it.

The main thing I learned from the new info is that LE has honestly been actively pursuing all leads and scenarios, and I think they are doing a good job.

*IF* SC was involved, I feel that either RC was involved too or RC has NO suspicion of his involvement. IMO regardless of how much we love or trust our spouses, it would make anyone pause and think if their spouse was acting suspicious. By this I mean if this was his first night not coming to bed, if his demeanor on the 911 call was unusal or out of character in RC's perspective, if RC heard him telling LE things she knows to be false, if evidence was collected from her home that she knows was out of place, if all of those things happened and she was not also involved in Isa's disappearance, IMO she would be distancing herself from SC. So, to me, RC's acceptance of him leads me to feel like she hasn't seen any red flags from him, which leads my gut feeling towards his innocence.

My current questions: I wonder if SC regularly stayed late in the family room on nights that RC had to work early the next AM and he didn't. If it was a consistent thing, okay then, but if it was the first time in years that he was out of the master bedroom until nearly daybreak, that is a red flag IMO

Overall I am still with my unpopular and decidedly statistically improbable theory that a stranger abduction happened to a family with a strange but not violent father. All JMO

BBM yes, that is what I thought, too.

sorry to restate, but IMO if anything in the car was useful, the car would have been taken in for further testing

 

[~n/t~]

So basically even with the doc dump we know nothing and Isabel is still missing.

I'm not buying the uncle/cousin theory. It makes no sense that someone would snatch his cousin's daughter as payback to a debt he owed (if true). They'd be after him or his parents, sisters, brothers, etc.

 

[mck16]

iTA1

I have always felt the reason is not what is commonly thought. IMO, this is for a different reason and we dont know what that reason is.

Oh did anyone that was interviewed say Sergo was an abusive person to his children or wife? Was that in any of the documents?

IMO

No, and in the docs I read there is Nothing disparaging about either of the parents. And certainly not SC. jmo

 

[Patty G]

Posting the statement and the link for reference.

Police searched a truck belonging to one of Isabel's uncles on April 24.
http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_91fee6b2-df37-5c40-bc2a-20e15fe69299.html


It will help, at least for now, if a statement is posted from an article, please put the link so we can read it. As time goes on, things grow legs, and at least it is easier to pin-point the statement from the media. TIA

 

[oceanblueeyes]

BBM yes, that is what I thought, too.

sorry to restate, but IMO if anything in the car was useful, the car would have been taken in for further testing

Absolutely. No doubt about it. They would have impounded it the same day.

IMO

 

[liz b.]

It is my understanding that this was a voluntary agreement, not court-ordered, so "banned" would be incorrect.
The other calls could be the complaints about the dogs barking as has been discussed in these threads.
This witness making this claim could just be his theory. No way to know if this is true or not. The witness may have just stated this to a reporter, and it means nothing. If it were true, I think LE would be well aware of it by now.
Ok, I'm outta here for awhile, things to do.

"Voluntary " ...what would happen if SC did not comply ? It is not really voluntary MOO IIRC, RC stated that she was "outraged " about the separation. So, given that she said that, it was probably not really voluntary at all...JMO

 

[Prof]

IMO the stranger theory is not that improbable considering just over a week later another six year old was assaulted in a bedroom in a house full of adults not very far away...even if not related...it does happen...

 

[Prof]

No, and in the docs I read there is Nothing disparaging about either of the parents. And certainly not SC. jmo

Where are the docs you have read?
TIA

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Posting the statement and the link for reference.

Police searched a truck belonging to one of Isabel's uncles on April 24.
http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_91fee6b2-df37-5c40-bc2a-20e15fe69299.html


It will help, at least for now, if a statement is posted from an article, please put the link so we can read it. As time goes on, things grow legs, and at least it is easier to pin-point the statement from the media. TIA

I think this Uncle may live close by and he may have been the Uncle LE told the neighbor about that came looking for Isa that morning.

IMO

 

[oceanblueeyes]

Where are the docs you have read?
TIA

Im not Mic but I think she means from what she has read of the docs that the media has disclosed.

imo

 

[mck16]

That is interesting to me because it would eliminate a meter reader doing his normal thing, correct? ( not that meter readers stand on utility boxes), but it would be a different company responsible for both so the fact that they may match is interesting, and I personally don't see SC as the workboot type, so who was standing on various utility boxes next to the property?

IMO if the shower curtain turned up to be a key piece of evidence, we would not be reading about it.

The main thing I learned from the new info is that LE has honestly been actively pursuing all leads and scenarios, and I think they are doing a good job.

*IF* SC was involved, I feel that either RC was involved too or RC has NO suspicion of his involvement. IMO regardless of how much we love or trust our spouses, it would make anyone pause and think if their spouse was acting suspicious. By this I mean if this was his first night not coming to bed, if his demeanor on the 911 call was unusal or out of character in RC's perspective, if RC heard him telling LE things she knows to be false, if evidence was collected from her home that she knows was out of place, if all of those things happened and she was not also involved in Isa's disappearance, IMO she would be distancing herself from SC. So, to me, RC's acceptance of him leads me to feel like she hasn't seen any red flags from him, which leads my gut feeling towards his innocence.

My current questions: I wonder if SC regularly stayed late in the family room on nights that RC had to work early the next AM and he didn't. If it was a consistent thing, okay then, but if it was the first time in years that he was out of the master bedroom until nearly daybreak, that is a red flag IMO

Overall I am still with my unpopular and decidedly statistically improbable theory that a stranger abduction happened to a family with a strange but not violent father. All JMO

The idea was established one grueling night and into the next day that there probably isn't a meter reader. That most of Tucson's meters are read electronically and no reader even goes to the property. jmo