AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #22

[time]

Sorry for quoting my earlier post, but there seems to be some confusion.

I am interested in anyone's or everyone's answers to the question I have bolded above from my original post.

I was asking for speculation on why LE has not released details on the family's timeline/activities except for the park. I just would think that this might generate more tips.

I wasn't really questioning why they requested the tapes.

Answer: They're sneaky little... (oops!)

Maybe they do not want friends or family to try and validate it? Maybe they are not sure the Celis told them everything - you're assuming somewhat that they know where they were then went to look for video. Perhaps they feel they don't know and want to see what pops up. Or maybe it serves some purpose that's similar for a possible perp? Alibi?

I'm now wondering... maybe the FBI or ? said they should look in some places, no trace of that in the reports, it's just an order that came from a commanding officer or someone in charge of the investigation.

Perhaps they already know from another case that there is a suspicious character who lives near that area - JQP mentioned some, but I don't remember where on the map they would be placed.

I'd love to hear they got everything on surveillance from the Wicked Wench or whatever the name of that bar is!

 

[spoiledmom]

better checking the tunnels than doing the dishes!

So true! Who in the heck is thinking about doing housework at a time like that? I sure wouldn't be. I'd be all over that neighborhood looking for my niece if I was in her place.

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

Answer: They're sneaky little... (oops!)

Maybe they do not want friends or family to try and validate it? Maybe they are not sure the Celis told them everything - you're assuming somewhat that they know where they were then went to look for video. Perhaps they feel they don't know and want to see what pops up. Or maybe it serves some purpose that's similar for a possible perp? Alibi?

I'm now wondering... maybe the FBI or ? said they should look in some places, no trace of that in the reports, it's just an order that came from a commanding officer or someone in charge of the investigation.

Perhaps they already know from another case that there is a suspicious character who lives near that area - JQP mentioned some, but I don't remember where on the map they would be placed.

I'd love to hear they got everything on surveillance from the Wicked Wench or whatever the name of that bar is!

Maybe Isabel was seen, and maybe she didn't have on the clothes they reported she was wearing? Maybe they want to see if anyone will change their story? Maybe someone was with the family and the family never mentioned that person? Maybe the family forgot to tell LE they were there in the first place?

I was thinking whoever has harmed Isabel has probably read these documents to see what LE knows. Don't you think?

 

[CA Lady]

Sorry for quoting my earlier post, but there seems to be some confusion.

I am interested in anyone's or everyone's answers to the question I have bolded above from my original post.

I was asking for speculation on why LE has not released details on the family's timeline/activities except for the park. I just would think that this might generate more tips.

I wasn't really questioning why they requested the tapes.

Do they say they were looking specifically for family in those videos? If it was for someone else, it wouldn't affect the family timeline or help in the investigation. A tip may have come in stating there was a sighting of Isa and they had to ask.

There seems to be a number of things LE has not stated publically that I thought it might help in further public tips. Got to believe they know what they are doing. lease:

 

[spoiledmom]

Maybe Isabel was seen, and maybe she didn't have on the clothes they reported she was wearing? Maybe they want to see if anyone will change their story? Maybe someone was with the family and the family never mentioned that person? Maybe the family forgot to tell LE they were there in the first place?

I was thinking whoever has harmed Isabel has probably read these documents to see what LE knows. Don't you think?

Sure. This is probably one of the reasons LE doesn't disclose everything they know in the document dump.

 

[CJMAJORGIRL24]

Sure. This is probably one of the reasons LE doesn't disclose everything they know in the document dump.

I just scared myself!! I can imagine the person that has taken her reading these documents to see exactly what LE knows.......:jail:

 

[Salem]

No name calling or name variations. It is against TOS.

If you used name variations, you need to go back and clean them up, now.

Thanks,

Salem

 

[spoiledmom]

I just scared myself!! I can imagine the person that has taken her reading these documents to see exactly what LE knows.......:jail:

I think that sometimes the suspects may come on here and read what we sleuth. I remember someone on here posting a story about a suspect coming on one of the threads and defending themselves!

 

[MBK]

Yes, I and other posters have noted that the doc dump would not yield evidence, nor would it reveal everything that LE has that points directly toward any person. I have noted a few times that what the docs do not include would be results of these reports.

Still we have learned things since the doc dump, and have had things to discuss to add to theories, and any theories based on some type of concrete report is more interesting to me than the alternatives IMO

For example, I would like to hear what others think of the request for surveillance video from the Walmart and Albertsons for Friday... I posted this a few pages ago, and I find it interesting. IMO the docs do provide some points for discussion.

I am fairly confident that most of us following this case all along do know that LE is not giving out any results of their investigation.

I am not familiar with Albertson's, as we don't have them in my part of the country, but it is my experience that the exterior of any Wal-Mart is BRISTLING with cameras. There are generally cameras across the front of every store, and lord knows how many on the outside, and perhaps even in the parking lot? Thus, you wouldn't even have to go inside Wal-Mart for there to possibly be excellent video of cars and people in the area.

Wow. Just had a flash about the Petit family ladies. They were followed from a grocery store parking lot to their home, and then the perps came later, and we all know how that ended.

 

[Anita Richman]

Remember someone mentioning "look at the grocery store" for leads, places where Isa would go? I had to grab some supplies at the petstore and was in the neighborhood, so I went to the one on Craycroft and Broadway.

As I entered, I wondered if this is where the Celis family got their pet supplies for the three dogs. Anyway, in the checkout line, there was a little girl ahead of me who shyly asked for a "free doggie biscuit". The cashier engaged her in conversation as he got her a biscuit (what's your dog's name, how old are you, what school do you go to?) I thought about Isa, and if she'd ever asked for treats like this little girl. (At the front of the checkout lanes, they had two of Isa's missing posters along with ads and such.)

Anyway, in my same train of thought about the pets and Isa, it occurred to me that the backyard dirt may have been hardpacked because of the dogs. Especially on the east side, which would be the coolest side of the home during the hottest part of the day. This may be why NO footprints were found outside her window.

I thought I'd post my musings whilst I have a few minutes between entertaining the kiddos. :seeya:

 

[Kelly Faraday]

As I entered, I wondered if this is where the Celis family got their pet supplies for the three dogs. Anyway, in the checkout line, there was a little girl ahead of me who shyly asked for a "free doggie biscuit". The cashier engaged her in conversation as he got her a biscuit (what's your dog's name, how old are you, what school do you go to?) I thought about Isa, and if she'd ever asked for treats like this little girl. (At the front of the checkout lanes, they had two of Isa's missing posters along with ads and such.)

I'm sure the cashier meant no harm. But children need to be taught to NEVER answer such questions. Just politely say my mommy says I'm not supposed to tell personal things about myself. Sorry. Or something to that effect.

Adults these days should actually know better than to ask such things but just aren't thinking sometimes.

Kelly

 

[kat77]

It seems like opinions are definitely mixed on NMD at this point, but his name keeps coming up in our discussions. These are just my thoughts. I admit the situation looks suspicious. I'm not saying that he is not a POI, but I don't think we know enough to draw many conclusions.

1. Like many others, I doubt this info would be in the released packet unless LE had followed up and decided that he wasn't a good lead. I am totally open to any real evidence, but I'm trying to play the devil's advocate here.

2. In going through packet 4 again, I noticed page 75 of 88. Maybe I missed it, but have we discussed this? Apparently the oldest Celis son told an officer that "his sister has a friend that lives at REDACTED E. 12th Street". Do we know what that address is?

3. Since we know NMD lives a few houses away, he may be a friend of the Celis family (maybe even has children or step-children who play with Isa). Couldn't he have been out searching, because he hoped that's what neighbors would do if his child was missing?

4. If we don't already know the address of Isa's friend, maybe it was NMD's house and that is why there was a search warrant and extra attention there. And why he would be so quick to search on his own.

5. Like others have said, I know guys who would jump in and search (even before LE got there) if a neighbor's child was missing. After all, minutes could mean the difference between life and death for the child.

6. I didn't see evidence that the person sitting on an electric box in the alley was NMD. I saw white t-shirt with black letters "Car World" in the alley and NMD wearing a "plain white t-shirt" at the park. Since LE said they watched NMD walk across the park and get into his vehicle, I would guess that they saw both front and back of the t-shirt.

7. Also would a real perp just be sitting in an alley, less than an hour after LE reached the scene? Wouldn't they be trying to get as far away as possible (or maybe busy dealing with Isa)? If they were the type who likes to come back to watch the activity, wouldn't they want to be a little closer to the scene for a better look?

8. Since NMD is a close neighbor, we would expect to frequently see his name in the records of those entering and leaving the neighborhood, and in house searches of the immediate area.

9. If NMD woke up and heard that Isa was missing (before LE arrived), he may have gone out immediately (before 8:30 and without eating first). I could imagine that he might be in a hurry to get home and eat breakfast after a couple of hours in the Arizona heat.

10. Like others have said, maybe he took GF's car because it was most convenient and he may have been in a hurry to return her car so she could go to work.

11. Maybe he left the park because he had already given LE all the information he had.

12. Or maybe it had just dawned on him that being out searching alone could look suspicious.

13. But most of all, I keep thinking that if things had turned out differently, and NMD actually found Isa and brought her back safely, he would now be considered a hero.

 

[gitana1]

I'm sure the cashier meant no harm. But children need to be taught to NEVER answer such questions. Just politely say my mommy says I'm not supposed to tell personal things about myself. Sorry. Or something to that effect.

Adults these days should actually know better than to ask such things but just aren't thinking sometimes.

Kelly

I see no harm in a child giving their age, name, or dog's name, if she's in the store with her parents or guardian. But asking what school she goes to is not right. Some weirdo could be listening and thus know how to find her.

 

[Anita Richman]

I'm sure the cashier meant no harm. But children need to be taught to NEVER answer such questions. Just politely say my mommy says I'm not supposed to tell personal things about myself. Sorry. Or something to that effect.

Adults these days should actually know better than to ask such things but just aren't thinking sometimes.

Kelly

I agree, the cashier was just being kind and friendly. It occurred to me that if there was a creepy stranger there, overhearing such a conversation, they would immediately feel "closer" to Isa from hearing her voice, hearing her name, etc. Also, funny enough since we were talking with John q. Public about the types of boots cable guys wear (wolverines), there is a Cox cable office next door to the Petco. P.s., excuse spelling errors and typos, typing this on my phone.

 

[Madeleine74]

Madeline, I usually agree with your posts but I think this one just goes too far and also ignores certain behaviour on the part of TPD.

It is the TPD themselves who have sought to ENGAGE the public in this case, not distract it. Recall that it was the TPD who made the decision to have regular press conferences and to call out the parents to do media. And it has been the TPD who released the CPS info to the media, released the 911 calls, and alerted the media about the reanactment so that camera crews could record the family being brought back to the house. These were proactive decisions made by TPD to involve the public, not distract them.

IMO, the public doesn't need a sparkly little birdie to "distract" it and get it off TPD's backs - our media-saturated culture would have accomplished that all on its own. We move on to the next big story rather quickly, after all, and people aren't exactly standing outside of TPD's doors harrassing them for details about this case. Truth be told, I think public interest has already dwindled to a fraction of what it was.

I also don't believe these docs were released because of an FOIA request; rather, I think they were released as part of TPD's continuing strategy to ratchet up the pressure on the parents. Now we know that TPD has also looked at their extended family, and that there was apparent blood found in Isa's room.

The TPD is the source for all of the informaiton on this case that points to the family, and they continue to be the source.

Ahhh well...can't bat 100 everytime! I do, however, think the document dump helps placate a thirsty public--a public that is demanding some information about this investigation, and I also believe it's a tactic that is being used to justify the length and expense of the investigation. I don't think that's by accident.

Just about everyone, upon reading the various pdfs have commented how much work LE has done, how many leads they've followed, how overwhelming it all is...it is a large investigation and it is costly.

LE is not asking the public to do anything at this point. The documents have served a couple purposes and I notice in general people aren't criticizing the TPD as much as before. That tells me the tactic works pretty well. :twocents:

 

[pieper4]

I'm not sure what the reason would be for removing a bedskirt (I call it a "dust ruffle")? What would make a (potential) perp think to remove it? How would the perp or the victim come in contact with the bedskirt? Pillow/pillowcase, fitted sheet, top sheet, blanket, comforter/bedspread, mattress pad, mattress make sense in a possible molestation, but I don't see how the bedskirt figures in this scenario. :moo:

Agree. But things can/do "drip". Pardon the visual.

 

[liz b.]

I know in the Lisa Irwin case,LE did find her mom on a store video. She was buying wine. When the tape was released,it did lead to mom admitting that she was very drunk the night Lisa vanished...never did lead to finding Lisa...JMO

So, there could be all kinds of things LE was looking for, who really knows ?

 

[johnQpublic]

Totally just something funny I just found from doing research digging... This case and the JFK mystery actually do have alot in common.... 1) they are both a mystery 2) there is the possibility of a cover up 3) manholes and storm drains 4) a MOORE film

 

[Kelly Faraday]

I agree, the cashier was just being kind and friendly. It occurred to me that if there was a creepy stranger there, overhearing such a conversation, they would immediately feel "closer" to Isa from hearing her voice, hearing her name, etc. Also, funny enough since we were talking with John q. Public about the types of boots cable guys wear (wolverines), there is a Cox cable office next door to the Petco. P.s., excuse spelling errors and typos, typing this on my phone.

Anita, you are so right. And actually, we don't know the cashier's questions were innocent. They probably were, but you are so right. The wrong person could overhear details (such as where a little goes to school) that could put a child in danger.

I remember when adults would always ask children these questions just being friendly and meaning no harm and nobody would have given it a second thought. When I was that age it wasn't unusual for strangers to ask your name, what grade are you in? Where do you go to school? Etc...

Those days are gone. Children need to be taught not to give personal information to strangers. It's a sad fact of life since most people just love young people and want to interact with them. But those aren't the ones from whom young ones need protection. It's the other element that causes us to have to be protective and on the offensive. Wish they didn't exist but they do.

K.

 

[BaxterDE42]

All good points and I will leave your post intact but only comment on a couple of issues (in bold by me)

It seems like opinions are definitely mixed on NMD at this point, but his name keeps coming up in our discussions. These are just my thoughts. I admit the situation looks suspicious. I'm not saying that he is not a POI, but I don't think we know enough to draw many conclusions.

1. Like many others, I doubt this info would be in the released packet unless LE had followed up and decided that he wasn't a good lead. I am totally open to any real evidence, but I'm trying to play the devil's advocate here.

2. In going through packet 4 again, I noticed page 75 of 88. Maybe I missed it, but have we discussed this? Apparently the oldest Celis son told an officer that "his sister has a friend that lives at REDACTED E. 12th Street". Do we know what that address is?

3. Since we know NMD lives a few houses away, he may be a friend of the Celis family (maybe even has children or step-children who play with Isa). Couldn't he have been out searching, because he hoped that's what neighbors would do if his child was missing?

He could have been out searching for many reasons but it makes no sense he went alone. If anyone was in his house at that time and he stated he was going out to search, I cannot imagine that person (s) wouldn't tag along. Also why did he not pick up someone on the street or in the area to accompany him? Someone who wants to play hero or is really concerned enough to insert himself in a crime because he is a "good guy" trying to help does not (generally) hurry off to eat when he is faced with a cop who may give him some "inside info". Now that would really make him feel neded and appreiated!

What I find curious is what LE does not have in that report. The officer makes note of NMD's shirt but does not state if his shoes appeared wet and/or muddy. Why not? Did he not notice? Doubt it. Any officer who is conscientious enough to stand watch for 20 minutes waiting for a person to return to a car under all these cumstances would notice the condition of clothing and shoes after hearing this mans reason for being there.(MO). I bet the officer also noticed a lot about the car as well that does not need to be in this initial report. Depending the length of his tenure, this officer may have developed some good body language skills as well.

4. If we don't already know the address of Isa's friend, maybe it was NMD's house and that is why there was a search warrant and extra attention there. And why he would be so quick to search on his own.

5. Like others have said, I know guys who would jump in and search (even before LE got there) if a neighbor's child was missing. After all, minutes could mean the difference between life and death for the child.

6. I didn't see evidence that the person sitting on an electric box in the alley was NMD. I saw white t-shirt with black letters "Car World" in the alley and NMD wearing a "plain white t-shirt" at the park. Since LE said they watched NMD walk across the park and get into his vehicle, I would guess that they saw both front and back of the t-shirt.

Neither do I. THis ould have been a man totally oblivious to what was going on and sitting there for any number of reasons. Why be outside and draw attention?

7. Also would a real perp just be sitting in an alley, less than an hour after LE reached the scene? Wouldn't they be trying to get as far away as possible (or maybe busy dealing with Isa)? If they were the type who likes to come back to watch the activity, wouldn't they want to be a little closer to the scene for a better look?

8. Since NMD is a close neighbor, we would expect to frequently see his name in the records of those entering and leaving the neighborhood, and in house searches of the immediate area.

9. If NMD woke up and heard that Isa was missing (before LE arrived), he may have gone out immediately (before 8:30 and without eating first). I could imagine that he might be in a hurry to get home and eat breakfast after a couple of hours in the Arizona heat.

10. Like others have said, maybe he took GF's car because it was most convenient and he may have been in a hurry to return her car so she could go to work.

11. Maybe he left the park because he had already given LE all the information he had.

12. Or maybe it had just dawned on him that being out searching alone could look suspicious.

13. But most of all, I keep thinking that if things had turned out differently, and NMD actually found Isa and brought her back safely, he would now be considered a hero.

You play the devil's advocate well. :twocents: