AZ - Isabel Mercedes Celis, 6, Tucson, 20 April 2012 - #23

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For the record, I watched KVOA at 10 & there wasn't anything new from before but did get the spokesperson's name. it was Assistant COP Brett Klien. He became the assistant COP in 2009.
 
Jules71 said:
The owner's name listed on the manta site matches the name on the whitepages listing for that address - just two houses over from Isa. I could not find a bbb listing or business license either but I didn't search for too long.

The business came up on more than one listing on the web.
Sent from my Kindle Fire using Tapatalk 2
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Oh, I have no doubt they match. Problem with these directories (all of them, including PIPL, etc.) is GiGo (Garbage In Garbage Out). One listing is wrong (like the online White Pages), and voila'! All of them are inaccurate since they cull the data from one anothers sites. One of my "jobs" is trying to trace original sources for internet information. It's a nightmare.

Even if that's just the owner of the business's home address, I would *think* there would be a business license involved for any sort of ammo through the State. Then again, they may be unlicensed/registered and selling online via eBay or something? Odd, still.
 
So,just to recap : SC is still barred from contact with the two remaining children, and neither SC nor RC has done any new sit down interviews with national media ? Not Telemundo ? It's baffling...poor Isabel. She could be anywhere ... JMO
 
ditdot said:
this is in response to question about window alarms rather then blocking window..you can get alarms for windows online I believe $28 dollars my neighbor uses on her door but they are pretty loud..i think comes with 4 alarms you can look up on line
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That could get pricy for poor people who have more than 4 windows. That's why I was asking about some program to subsidise the cost, so that low income families could afford them.

Also, such a program could help educate every parent that window alarms are a safer option than blocking egress through the windows.
 
Azcrabcakes said:
I suspect the bickering is rooted in frustration at no new info. I love that everyone tosses out their thoughts and opinions of what COULD have happened. Since none of us knows anything more, why not toss out what we think? No one is right and no one is wrong.

About statement analysis... I like the IDEA of it, but I don't think it can be considered as gospel. One example I recently read would classify me as a guilty person! It stated an innocent person, upon walking out to their driveway from their home, and seeing their car gone, wold call 911 and say "My car has been stolen." A guilty person, as in a hoax, or insurance fraud, would state "My car is gone!" I am quite sure I would say "My car is gone!" That was what I thought as I read the article, anyway.

I hear so much misuse of language, by native and non-native English speakers alike, it would be hard to evaluate their words for guilt. Errors are common with words like insure/ensure, borrow/loan, barely/hardly, by accident/ on accident... and so on. Even pretty well-educated people misuse words and phrases.
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Like you, I am quite certain I would say "my car is gone!" Under stress, I know I tend to describe what I've seen or experienced rather than my interpretation.

Besides, how would I know it was stolen? Kimster could have flown over and beamed it aboard!
 
I like the principle of statement analysis because our words come from our brain and there may be clues and SA picks up on some of the same red flags I tend to do. But reading some of the amateur analyses available online it is definitely over-reaching imo. For example, sometimes it seems that they focus so much on minor details like changing tense or changing pronouns that they completely miss the big picture and what the statement referred to. The pronouns changed because the actor changed or the tense changed because the topic changed from the present into a past tense event, or insist that honest people should avoid using synonymous language to the point that they would sound like parrots saying the same thing over and over again.
 
Is there any reason that this could not be connected to Isa?

I see nothing to indicate he has been caught...
Sadly even if he was he could be out by now.
Totally possible he moved rather than stopping... or moved once released and started again.
If he DID do time for this and started again once released... he might not leave his victims this time around to testify...


Prof said:
Yikes.... I hope so too, Gliving...

http://www.azcentral.com/arizonarepublic/news/articles/0131abductions0131.html?&wired

Snips:

"All the victims have been Hispanic. The girls were taken even while adults were in the homes. "

"Police say the attacker is "extremely determined," picking out his victims ahead of time, going directly to them in the home and taking them regardless of the high risk of getting caught. "

"These are not opportunistic," Markey said. "These are planned. He's done some sort of surveillance. He's thought this out."

"We know he's probably not going to stop."


"The attacker usually strikes in the nighttime darkness. In every case, adults have been home at the time. Some victims were sharing the room with another child when attacked."
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New leads falling off 2 months after Isabel's abduction

http://azstarnet.com/news/local/cri...cle_c3b012ca-e421-5cc9-b8c1-e3ce1789b1f3.html

Two months have passed since Isabel Celis was abducted from her midtown home and police have still not named any suspects or shared any information about what might have happened to the 6-year-old.

(snipped)

In mid-May, Sergio Celis entered into a voluntary agreement with state Child Protective Services to have no contact with his two sons, Isabel's older brothers, after detectives learned of information pertaining to the boys' welfare.

CPS and TPD would not comment on whether that agreement is still in effect.
 
More leads yet no sign of Isabel Celis two months later

http://www.tucsonnewsnow.com/story/18841754/two-months-passed-and-no-sign-of-isabel-celis

(snipped)

"I thought she'd be home by now. I really did," says long-time neighbor Linda Pike.

She can't believe how much time has passed.

"They always seemed happy and a really close family so it's hard to see it that way."

The family has had other struggles. On Wednesday the Department of Economic Security would not say whether the father, Sergio Celis, has been reunited with his sons following a no contact order.

The mother, Rebecca Celis, has been active on Facebook posting new photos of little Isabel.

"We bought ribbons and buttons and put the stickers on the cars," says volunteer Dan Smidt. He and others continue their efforts to keep Isabel in the spotlight, even as the number of volunteers has dropped.

Right now volunteers are planning another prayer vigil for the safe return of Isabel Celis. Anyone who wants to join the effort are encouraged to get in touch with volunteers through their website www.bringisahome.com.
 
Azcrabcakes said:
I suspect the bickering is rooted in frustration at no new info. I love that everyone tosses out their thoughts and opinions of what COULD have happened. Since none of us knows anything more, why not toss out what we think? No one is right and no one is wrong.

About statement analysis... I like the IDEA of it, but I don't think it can be considered as gospel. One example I recently read would classify me as a guilty person! It stated an innocent person, upon walking out to their driveway from their home, and seeing their car gone, wold call 911 and say "My car has been stolen." A guilty person, as in a hoax, or insurance fraud, would state "My car is gone!" I am quite sure I would say "My car is gone!" That was what I thought as I read the article, anyway.

I hear so much misuse of language, by native and non-native English speakers alike, it would be hard to evaluate their words for guilt. Errors are common with words like insure/ensure, borrow/loan, barely/hardly, by accident/ on accident... and so on. Even pretty well-educated people misuse words and phrases.
Click to expand...


Very true! One more example: people misusing the words 'know' and 'no', 'there' and 'their', and a few more I can't think of right now.

As far as statement analysis is concerned, I don't believe it is fair to assess people who are experiencing a crisis situation at the time their statements are being analyzed. No one is going to say and do the same things during a crisis as they do in normal situations. I've made several calls to 911 over the years and I was calm as a cucumber in a few and sounded like a raving lunatic in another. Your emotional state of mind prior to the call is going to play a big part in how you react, aside from the level of gravity of the situation. I have never called 911 for something insignificant, it has always been for a serious, life or death emergency. Why would I be hysterical one time and calm the time before that? Because my state of mind just prior to the calls was not the same and I was not able to react in a normal manner due to stress and other factors.

I agree with you about the bickering but I also think there are some people who just need this to be the parent, because that's what the statistics say. But IMO, statistics don't mean much, because they deal in patterns and everything doesn't always fall into a pattern. Also their demeanor doesn't seem to fit into what is acceptable to some. It's all a matter of perception.
 
FrayedKnot said:
Respectfully snipped by me.

Speechless. Just speechless. :(
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she most recently posted a picture of another missing child...kahil gray.

also, on the 'find isabel celis' page, a reporter from tucson news now gave his email address "if you're interested in some news coverage". i hope those on fb will take him up on the offer.

and another thanks to pieper and dr. know...two new articles this morning perhaps fueled by a few websleuther's inquiries maybe? :clap:
 
MsFacetious said:
Is there any reason that this could not be connected to Isa?

I see nothing to indicate he has been caught...
Sadly even if he was he could be out by now.
Totally possible he moved rather than stopping... or moved once released and started again.
If he DID do time for this and started again once released... he might not leave his victims this time around to testify...
Click to expand...


This perp could have moved from Phoenix to Tucson. This perp may not have been caught. I have been trying to find a description, and more information on these cases.

I would hope that the agencies have shared similar case information. There was that one retired Phoenix police media person who spoke about Isa's case. I would have thought he would have made the connection. There are similarities here.
 
Donjeta said:
I like the principle of statement analysis because our words come from our brain and there may be clues and SA picks up on some of the same red flags I tend to do. But reading some of the amateur analyses available online it is definitely over-reaching imo. For example, sometimes it seems that they focus so much on minor details like changing tense or changing pronouns that they completely miss the big picture and what the statement referred to. The pronouns changed because the actor changed or the tense changed because the topic changed from the present into a past tense event, or insist that honest people should avoid using synonymous language to the point that they would sound like parrots saying the same thing over and over again.
Click to expand...

I agree, Donjeta.

I am a fan of text analysis but I know that text analysis is not reliable with small blocks of text. You really need a minimum of short book length samples of text, both the text being analysed and the text from the known source, to come up with results that are likely to be accurate. That's a lot of text!

So now I wonder... maybe the problem with the statement analysis is that so many of the people who claim to be doing it are not using large enough samples.

Thinking... okay, a small book takes about 2 or 3 hours to read out loud. So maybe statement analysis also needs a couple of hours of sample in order to be accurate.
 
Many thanks to our local "reporters" for their continued contributions to the Isabel Celis discussion. I appreciate your keeping us abreast of the latest developments and for sharing your local perspective on the case. :tyou:
 
ditdot said:
Hello everyone have not posted in a while...but whats up with the silence???? no news...no pleas no anything...has the case gone cold??? I was reading docs again and I noticed Sergio name is on one then say ALIAS and its blacked out alot!!! also when says who was present when police were on sight says male name and woman who claims to be males GF...blacked out...possibly Justin??? then I notice address up top being blacked out and came across page saying officer responded to (blacked out) and officer was told to stay make sure noone climbed over gate or inside....reason I mentioning is because is anyone back at the home??? also Justin is out of sight??? hmmm . Chelsea stated Justin owed money..she is family thats why I am starting to think he is staying in the home now and this is some kind of ransom situation , and TPD knows but to avoid placing Isa in more danger they are leading us to Sergio...Justin..ETC. It is just too quiet no news at all... just some thoughts I have been thinking just my opinion... anyone ????
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I would be interested in looking at this more. Can you post a screen print of the doc you are referring to or the packet # and page #? TIA!
 
oceanblueeyes said:
I really think that has become confusing. The neighbor who talked with the media said that the police told her that the man who came to her door early that morning was Isa's uncle. JM is not an uncle. I believe the person who came to the door was Becky's brother.

In fact iirc we didnt even see JM until later in the evening when he was out searching for Isa and so were TPD. It was then that the media stopped him and he spoke with them.

I think the Celis' did call someone and then that person in turn called JM and he came from wherever at that time.

The Celis family said no one was there with them that night. Just the four immediate family members.

IMO
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I have no proof of why I think he was there early but it has always been in my head. I feel like i must have heard SOMETHING kwim? May have just taken the best part of the day for the media to actually get someone to talk, iirc he was really the only one that day.

Then again you know what I tink and who I think is involved lol
 
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