Found Deceased AZ - Isabella Grogan-Cannella, 8, Bullhead City, 2 September 2014 - #4

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MsMarple said:
Exactly.

From the study:

"These reporting delays are important to the course of the investigation. The data show that delays are much more critical in child abduction murders than in other types of investigations, because missing children who are murdered are killed quickly after their abduction."

IOW, LE needs to conduct a child abduction investigation differently than a missing child investigation because time is of the essence. Knowing that a child has been taken by someone rather than having run away or gotten lost can make the difference in finding him or her alive.
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I still would be very interested to see a study which includes all 911 missing child calls (good resolutions and bad) that come in between dusk and dawn. I actually believe it is extremely rare that parents of children 8 and under would look for much longer than 20 minutes to call 911.

Same with seeing it broken down by age of missing child. Also, time breakdowns when only favorable outcomes are included.

I personally don't think it is ' reasonable' to wait 60-90 minutes for an 8 year old to turn up when it's midnight, they were 'getting ready for bed' when I left.

If a babysitter couldn't reach the parents, noticed the 8 year old was missing at close to midnight and then waited 90 minutes to even bother to call 911, I'd press charges for child endangerment.

Anyone know the statistic of positive vs negative outcomes when considering all missing child 911 calls? Are more statistically found alive or found not alive?
 
Solitaryone said:
^^^^
This!

You're so right! Only the "parents" usually the "mothers" in the cases we read here are the only ones who claim what great "parents' they are. No truly innocent parent does this! People may grieve differently, but there's just some things that people don't do when grieving! Do these "parents" really believe they're such great "parents"? If so, how is that possible? Even when ones child scrapes a knee or falls off a bike, or whatever, most parents will still feel some twinge of guilt! But in these murdered children cases where the "parents" are responsible, they believe and proclaim what great parents they are! I guess I just don't get it.
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I personally feel that if someone has to go on the record and tell me or the world what a great parent/husband/Christian/whatever they are, its because it's not obvious by their actions.
 
MsMarple said:
I seem to recall TG saying something about JR in an interview. IIRC, she said she wanted him to feel the same things that he did to Bella, or words to that effect. It kind of got lost in between her keening over her grief, her loss and her anger that her other child was taken away from her - if you know what I mean. :mad:

If only she, RF or even grandma had uttered angry words about JR to the 911 dispatcher or to the first LE responders, he might now be in jail for an attempted abduction instead of murder.
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I do recall an interview where TG indicated that if JR was guilty she wanted the death penalty for him.......don't have link sorry
 
Magdalyn said:
I personally feel that if someone has to go on the record and tell me or the world what a great parent/husband/Christian/whatever they are, its because it's not obvious by their actions.
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So much this! Actions speak louder than words and all that.

We see "everyone grieves differently" here all the time and while that may be true to some degree there are also behaviors that we associate with grief pretty much across the board, thus the 5 stages of grief. When we see parents skipping all the "normal" behaviors and stages, it raises questions. Every time a parent starts proclaiming that they were such a good parent I start digging for the actions they are hoping to hiding with their words.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Just to give us some perspective:

Nearly 99 percent of 18,599 children reported missing in Ohio last year were found safe, Attorney General Mike DeWine said in a report issued yesterday.
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also

The vast majority (94 percent) of kids who were reported missing were 13 to 17 years old; 6- to 12-year-olds made up 5 percent; and those 5 or younger less than 1 percent.
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http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/05/23/missing-children-report.html

I know this is just Ohio, but I think we'd find similar numbers in other states as well.

A little over 1% had negative outcomes in Ohio. If we assume the 735 people (in the child abduction murder study) represented all missing children with bad outcomes, that would mean approximately 72,765 (the remaining 99%) missing children had good outcomes...and weren't included in the survey. We have no idea how quickly the 72,765 children's parents waited to call 911. Faster call times improve outcomes. How many of the 72,765 children's parents called in less than 1 hour? Was that the reason for the better outcome?

Further:

The vast majority (94 percent) of kids who were reported missing were 13 to 17 years old; 6- to 12-year-olds made up 5 percent; and those 5 or younger less than 1 percent.
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If the upthread survey of 735 represented ALL missing children, good and bad outcomes,(which it does not), children of Bella's age range would only make up maybe 36 kids in the entire survey. 94% of all missing children that year were 13-18. A 13-18 year old TEEN missing in the middle the night is scary, but not nearly as scary as the prospect of an 8 year old out there, lost. We have no idea where the 6% '12 and under' children fell on the survey. The faster calling end, I'd wager. There may be ZERO 1-8 year olds represented beyond the one hour range. We just don't know.

So....

-The survey doesn't show stats on any call times of 99% of missing children who had good outcomes.

-The survey doesn't break down age range, then time of 911 call, which is key, given in Ohio, missing children in Bella's age range make up for approximately less than 6% of the missing children.

IMO, the child abduction murders survey is useless in showing us what is 'average' response time for all parents as it doesn't show the average response times on behalf of all missing children. It only shows the average stats of a collection of bad outcomes, which only represents the tiniest percentage of all missing children.
 
O/T

If anyone was following Jennifer Ramsaran's murder and/or trial, her husband was just found GUILTY today after @3.5 hours of deliberation! :happydance:
 
Magdalyn said:
Just to give us some perspective:


also


http://www.dispatch.com/content/stories/local/2014/05/23/missing-children-report.html

I know this is just Ohio, but I think we'd find similar numbers in other states as well.

A little over 1% had negative outcomes in Ohio. If we assume the 735 people (in the child abduction murder study) represented all missing children with bad outcomes, that would mean approximately 72,765 (the remaining 99%) missing children had good outcomes...and weren't included in the survey. We have no idea how quickly the 72,765 children's parents waited to call 911. Faster call times improve outcomes. How many of the 72,765 children's parents called in less than 1 hour? Was that the reason for the better outcome?

Further:


If the upthread survey of 735 represented ALL missing children, good and bad outcomes,(which it does not), children of Bella's age range would only make up maybe 36 kids in the entire survey. 94% of all missing children that year were 13-18. A 13-18 year old TEEN missing in the middle the night is scary, but not nearly as scary as the prospect of an 8 year old out there, lost. We have no idea where the 6% '12 and under' children fell on the survey. The faster calling end, I'd wager. There may be ZERO 1-8 year olds represented beyond the one hour range. We just don't know.

So....

-The survey doesn't show stats on any call times of 99% of missing children who had good outcomes.

-The survey doesn't break down age range, then time of 911 call, which is key, given in Ohio, missing children in Bella's age range make up for approximately less than 6% of the missing children.

IMO, the child abduction murders survey is useless in showing us what is 'average' as it doesn't show the average call times of all missing children. It only shows the average stats of a collection of bad outcomes, which only represents ....@ 1% (?) of all missing children.
Click to expand...

The quoted paper was designed to aid LE's investigative techniques in a specific subset of missing children. So yes, it only addresses what actually happened in those particular cases.

The last estimate I saw on such murders was that they comprise less than 0.5% of missing cases but there may be more recent numbers.

I don't know if any of these links will answer your questions but the stats are interesting:

From the DOJ:

http://www.missingkids.com/Publications/PDF23A

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/archive/documents/Statistics.pdf

From the FBI:

http://www.fbi.gov/about-us/cjis/nc...n-and-unidentified-person-statistics-for-2012

If you find the information you're looking for, please share - your questions have made me curious too. :)
 
I've been processing the 911 call audio, slowed playback, filtered, etc. What lead me to process the audio is what I hear on the recording: when answering the operator's question, "What's your name?", IMO, it sounds as if RF answered in this fashion:

"My name is Folster but the baby's name was Grogan-Cannella."

He spoke that section of the phrase so quickly that even when slowed to the limit of the software I can not determine exactly what he said. Is it "name is" or "name was"? The potential implication should be obvious.
 
I don't hear him saying was, I hear him saying IS.
 
I did find it odd that he said "the baby's name is... "

I mean, that makes sense if she was 3 or 4 but she was 8 years old. I know it's entirely possible they just referred to her that way since she was the youngest, but it did strike me as odd, especially coming from a male. It's more often women who use pet names for their kids than men. I know it probably means nothing at all, it just sounded strange.
 
Important dates for JJR

he was arraigned Sept 19.....P/A has 60 days from then to ask for death penalty

next appearance Sept 30 -- when it will be discussed during hearing whether media cameras will be allowed

"A hearing to determine whether media cameras will be allowed in the court room throughout the proceedings was scheduled for Sept. 30. Cameras were not allowed during Friday's arraignment.

An additional hearing was also set for Oct. 28. Rector is expected to appear during both proceedings.''

if no death penalty is requested his trial could be started Sept/Oct 2015 -- but would be delayed if death penalty is being considered.

http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/26580100/man-pleads-not-guilty-in-az-girls-abduction-killing
 
bumping for Isabella. RIP Isabella.
IIRC, I think there was hearing regarding media coverage scheduled for yesterday or today.
 
Any word on the results of the hearing?

KINGMAN, AZ (FOX5) -
A hearing on Tuesday is expected to determine whether media cameras will be allowed during an Arizona man's court proceedings in the kidnapping and killing case of a Bullhead City girl.

http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/26664540/hearing-to-determine-coverage-of-az-kidnapping-case

Also in the news:

In the aftermath of the murder of Isabella Grogan-Cannella, Mayor Jack Hakim is hosting a public forum tonight to address citizen questions about what the community can collectively do to prevent another tragedy.

http://www.mohavedailynews.com/news...cle_c9673bee-4871-11e4-9cef-cf902de20f38.html
 
MsMarple said:
Any word on the results of the hearing?

KINGMAN, AZ (FOX5) -
A hearing on Tuesday is expected to determine whether media cameras will be allowed during an Arizona man's court proceedings in the kidnapping and killing case of a Bullhead City girl.

http://www.fox5vegas.com/story/26664540/hearing-to-determine-coverage-of-az-kidnapping-case

Also in the news:

In the aftermath of the murder of Isabella Grogan-Cannella, Mayor Jack Hakim is hosting a public forum tonight to address citizen questions about what the community can collectively do to prevent another tragedy.

http://www.mohavedailynews.com/news...cle_c9673bee-4871-11e4-9cef-cf902de20f38.html
Click to expand...


bbm

at the link there is information about the public meeting: there will be 'experts' there.

There will be no discussion of the ongoing investigation. There will be mental health experts there too -- that will be useful.

"As adults we must all be respectful of one another,” said Hakim in a Facebook post about the event. “There are questions that need to be answered by community professionals so “let’s talk” about what we can do to be vigilant."

http://www.mohavedailynews.com/news/...02de20f38.html
 
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