CA CA - Bryce Laspisa, 19, Castaic, 30 Aug 2013 - #7

[nikb]

Hi guys, been swamped all weekend, but wanted to add a few thoughts.

A non-disclosure agreement is (or should be) standard on any search all the time. It protects everyone, slows down the rumor mill, and prevents things from being taken out of context.

While it is always frustrating when a search doesn't find the person you are looking for, the silver lining is that these are now areas that can be marked off as "not there", which is very important in keeping an organized and systematic focus going. Little by little you keep chipping away.

It is natural for things to "quiet" down on the web. That doesn't mean at all that it has quieted down behind the scenes. I think that the one thing that is very clear is that the family and members of the community are not going to give up until they bring Bryce home, and while that is taking some time, it will happen.

Hi Sarx - great to hear from you. I hope you're right there's still a lot going on behind the scenes. It definitely seems like it.

If you don't mind me asking, how familiar are you with dive searches? I think I remember you talking about them before, but can't recall for sure. Do you know why they'd have searched to a depth of approx 80'? Is it a limitation for safety reasons, logistics, or...? I'm still trying to find the original reference to this depth, but I know it was mentioned during the lake searches.

 

[AmandaFast]

Whatever happened with our Buttonwillow bunch, who were planning a sleuthing expedition there? I guess it didn't happen? If not, I just want to say that I still appreciated the effort and thought for attempting to go above and beyond. :tyou:

It is so maddening that with all the facts that we do have in BL's timeline of actions, we still just don't have enough to understand his intentions or mindset as he began his drive south. We have quite a lot of facts, actually, I think, but the problem is that when you put them altogether, it's more puzzling rather than clearer.

I did actually go down there! Unfortunately Cat told me early on that anything from Buttonwillow couldn't be discussed


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[sarx]

Hi Sarx - great to hear from you. I hope you're right there's still a lot going on behind the scenes. It definitely seems like it.

If you don't mind me asking, how familiar are you with dive searches? I think I remember you talking about them before, but can't recall for sure. Do you know why they'd have searched to a depth of approx 80'? Is it a limitation for safety reasons, logistics, or...? I'm still trying to find the original reference to this depth, but I know it was mentioned during the lake searches.

Hi Nikb! I am pretty familiar, have several friends on LE dive teams, worked with many during Sierra's search, but by no means am expert in the field. I do know that there are time constraints and safety issues with deep dives. I will also say that after having seen the lake, I understand and it makes sense why they didn't go farther out or deeper down. I really don't see him having swam out that far to get to significant depth before sinking to the bottom. And as much time as the spent in the water and as many people were on that lake in the days after it seems really unlikely that he was missed by all of them.

 

[RoseGarden]

I did actually go down there! Unfortunately Cat told me early on that anything from Buttonwillow couldn't be discussed
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Understood. Thank you, too, for that extra effort! :tyou:
So... do you have any new theories or tweaks to some...? I've got some tangents I'll be posting soon

 

[nikb]

Hi Nikb! I am pretty familiar, have several friends on LE dive teams, worked with many during Sierra's search, but by no means am expert in the field. I do know that there are time constraints and safety issues with deep dives. I will also say that after having seen the lake, I understand and it makes sense why they didn't go farther out or deeper down. I really don't see him having swam out that far to get to significant depth before sinking to the bottom. And as much time as the spent in the water and as many people were on that lake in the days after it seems really unlikely that he was missed by all of them.

Thanks Sarx! I really appreciate your opinion from experience in the field.

 

[BluePoppy]

I did actually go down there! Unfortunately Cat told me early on that anything from Buttonwillow couldn't be discussed

I've heard this explained before. I know you can't discuss it, but I'm pretty sure as a VI, dragracerz is allowed to share ongoing updates on the search, including anything you did in BW.

 

[Seajay]

It would be different if he was out in a boat and fell off, or was parasailing and went under. But being close to shore, if he was that injured, he couldn't have swum that far out there to be at a depth of 330'. I think that was the best thing to do was search to a depth that made sense in as much as how far he would have gotten out there.

 

[slowpoke]

I did actually go down there! Unfortunately Cat told me early on that anything from Buttonwillow couldn't be discussed

Ahh, I see; ok. Thank you again to you and your Buttonwillow crew. You are dauntless and amazing folks.

 

[AmandaFast]

Ahh, I see; ok. Thank you again to you and your Buttonwillow crew. You are dauntless and amazing folks.

Thanks . I will get in touch with Cat again and see if any of it can be shared here

I did email Dragz about it but haven't heard back yet. Once I do I'll ask him to share my email on here if he can.


As for new theories... I'm inclinded more than ever to believe he walked off voluntarily. I think that despite the bit I found in BW that BW has a lot more to offer but a lot of time will need to be spent looking into it. In my opinion I think he may have gone off a few times for day trips that he didn't tell people about. I think something went wrong when he was out there.

I don't think injury is what's keeping him away. For me its definitely voluntary or foul play. When I say foul play I mean with someone he knew or was meeting up with not so much a RSO.

As I suggested to Dragz was that I think geotagging needs to be looked into for all of Bryce's Facebook and instagram photos as well as any he might be in on SD's page with him in them. I think this could establish whether or not he took other day trips and where he had gone previously. I think that if its voluntary he likely went somewhere he's been before, and if he uploaded any pictures while he was there the geotag would come into play.

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[Whiteorchids]

Thanks . I will get in touch with Cat again and see if any of it can be shared here

I did email Dragz about it but haven't heard back yet. Once I do I'll ask him to share my email on here if he can.


As for new theories... I'm inclinded more than ever to believe he walked off voluntarily. I think that despite the bit I found in BW that BW has a lot more to offer but a lot of time will need to be spent looking into it. In my opinion I think he may have gone off a few times for day trips that he didn't tell people about. I think something went wrong when he was out there.

I don't think injury is what's keeping him away. For me its definitely voluntary or foul play. When I say foul play I mean with someone he knew or was meeting up with not so much a RSO.

As I suggested to Dragz was that I think geotagging needs to be looked into for all of Bryce's Facebook and instagram photos as well as any he might be in on SD's page with him in them. I think this could establish whether or not he took other day trips and where he had gone previously. I think that if its voluntary he likely went somewhere he's been before, and if he uploaded any pictures while he was there the geotag would come into play.

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I have thought foul play or suicide all along not just RSO. I just threw that out there but foul play in general. As I mentioned before I thought it could have been a deal that went wrong. Possibly money he owed someone or drugs whatever. I thought being in BW in the first place that long was very shady. It's a shady, creepy place. I hope you are allowed to share info with us. That's really nice of you to go down there and investigate.


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[zwiebel]

Sorry Bryce hasn't been found. So many people are found accidentally by members of the public though, so it's important to keep his profile high.

Does anyone have any info about the dogs used in the very early searches, or if dogs have been used since? Different dogs are trained for different purposes, that's all.

 

[nikb]

Thanks Sarx! I really appreciate your opinion from experience in the field.

Been thinking about this and I wanted to say thanks one more time, because for the first time I feel like maybe the lake HAS been searched thoroughly. I wasn't too convinced of that earlier, but maybe it has been.

I know you couldn't share much AmandaFast, but between what you shared and what Sarx said, I have some kind of renewed hope that maybe Bryce is out there somewhere...

 

[Voice4theSilent]

Sorry Bryce hasn't been found. So many people are found accidentally by members of the public though, so it's important to keep his profile high.

Does anyone have any info about the dogs used in the very early searches, or if dogs have been used since? Different dogs are trained for different purposes, that's all.

Here is a post by Dragracerz regarding the dogs:

Websleuths Crime Sleuthing Community - View Single Post - CA CA - Bryce Laspisa, 19, Castaic, 30 August 2013 - #6

 

[SmartSassyBBW]

I totally agree re: a better/more thorough lake search being needed. LE seems pretty convinced that he did leave the park, so I'm hoping they have solid evidence that justifies not searching the lake more. Otherwise I just don't feel like it can be ruled out. IIRC they searched down to depth of 80', but parts of this lake are much deeper. I haven't been there but it doesn't exactly look like a small lake, either - LOTS to search.

I keep thinking of this story from 2011. I know the circumstances are way different (this guy was scuba diving), but he was in a lake known for its crystal clarity and wasn't found for 17 years: http://www.reuters.com/article/2011/08/09/us-diver-body-idUSTRE7785WI20110809

"Body of missing Lake Tahoe diver found 17 years later

The remarkably well-preserved body of a scuba diver who sank and vanished 17 years ago in Lake Tahoe has been found on an underwater ledge deep in the mountain lake, authorities said on Tuesday.

The body of Donald Christopher Widecker, 44, was pulled from Lake Tahoe on July 27, four days after a group of divers stumbled across it while exploring a granite cliff 270 feet below the surface.

Widecker sank into the frigid lake on California's border with Nevada on July 10, 1994 after apparently suffering a medical or equipment problem. He had not been seen since."

Just a reminder that Castaic is not a natural lake but is a man made resevoir. There shouldn't be any ledges under the waters's surface. Just my opinion

 

[Hatfield]

Hi Nikb! I am pretty familiar, have several friends on LE dive teams, worked with many during Sierra's search, but by no means am expert in the field. I do know that there are time constraints and safety issues with deep dives. I will also say that after having seen the lake, I understand and it makes sense why they didn't go farther out or deeper down. I really don't see him having swam out that far to get to significant depth before sinking to the bottom. And as much time as the spent in the water and as many people were on that lake in the days after it seems really unlikely that he was missed by all of them.

Thanks for your valued input about dive searching since most of us do not fully understand how much is involved with it. The one thing I am wondering is how steep a drop the water drops off. Wondering if there is a steep drop off, then he could have maybe slid down to deeper depths. I think most of us agree he would not have swam out deep, but if there is a very steep drop off in that area, he may have slid down to deeper depths.

I suppose unless someone has seen a printout or a topographic map of the water area right around that specific spot, we may not know how steep a drop off. Those types of maps are available, but we would need to know exactly where on the map the car was found, and then maybe we could tell the steepness of the drop-off from a topo map.

If there is a very steep slope and drop-off, he may have slid down + out to deeper depths in the lake. This of course would then make it very difficult to find him.

I actually have a small john boat and a depth finder that shows an LED graph of the bottom, but am nowhere close to CA. One thing I was always amazed at was when certain lakes I fished at would have very steep drop offs in certain spots.
There was one lake that even if you were only 10-15 feet from shore, it had dropped to about 25 feet deep. You would never know this if standing on shore, because the shore line area looked normal. This one lake had quite the drop off.

Also, it is important to remember that there is always some structure and forgeign objects in lakes that he could of gotten snagged on below the water. A lot of fisherman will purposely submerge christmas trees, man-made structures, etc. to help fish have a shelter area to congregate. So, even if a lake is mostly smooth on bottom, there is always some structures that could be down there for a body to get hung up on.

With all that said, I do hope he is not in the lake, but for some reason, I just keep thinking about it more than the other theories. I keep thinking of the possible scenerio that he just waded in to get relief from his injuries and as he was in there, his succombed to his injuries and then floated a little bit before sinking, and then maybe slid down the slope of the lake bottom even further out to further depths.

Just a theory of course, and actually hope I am wrong and really hope he is alive somewhere.

 

[Hatfield]

One other thing to add, is boat traffic could cause a lot of turbulance that could also dislodge and move a body maybe further out if the bottom slope is steep enough.

Most of us realize that so long as the water is calm, a submerged body would eventually stop. But if the slope was steep enough, the next boat going by could cause enough turbulance to get the body moving again and then it could have slipped further out. Once it is deep enough and finally comes to rest, then boat traffic would probably not have much impact on a body because the top of the water is too far up to cause enough turbulance to affect it. But was just thinking of things like this that could help cause a body to get pretty far out and deeper than what we would expect.

 

[Trackergd]

It appears that Lake Castiac was formed by putting a dam at the end of a canyon and was a replacement for the St Francis dam in the next canyon over that collapsed in 1928 killing 400 people. - Source Wikipedia.

This would suggest that the lake bottom is not man made, but rather a canyon with all the lips, ledges and tree debris inherent with a canyon topography and flora.

 

[hannah1988]

This may have already been posted, but here's a link to a case where a body took 3 YEARS to surface in a lake, and it was found very close to where the person, Joseph Loupe, initially went missing:

http://www.tennessean.com/article/2...rd-man-found-lake-3-years-after-disappearance

I trust that the dive search team did a thorough job, but IMO there is still a possibility that he is in the lake and hasn't surfaced yet.

 

[Hatfield]

Just a reminder that Castaic is not a natural lake but is a man made resevoir. There shouldn't be any ledges under the waters's surface. Just my opinion

I understand your reasoning, but have to respectively disagree. Depending on the type of area that was dammed up and purposely flooded to create the lake, there could be plenty of structure below.

As an example, there is a Army Corp of engineers man made lake I have fished at that was built by flooding a very steep valley of woods that contained cottages and many trees. That lake is very deep and has so much structure in it, that you get snagged all the time when fishing. I actually lost an anchor while fishing there once because my anchor rope got hung up. I had to cut my anchor rope and leave my anchor down there...LOL. There are old cottages and many trees under the water. They had to buy out the cottages when they built the lake, and there was a lot of contreversy in getting the lake built to being with.

I am not familiar with the topography of the bottom of Lake Castaic though, and it could be quite different than that. But even if smooth, fisherman like to submerge old christmas trees and man-made structures to help fish congregate and create their own little fishing honey-holes.
So, there is always some possible objects and things for a body to get hung up on, even if a lake is known for a smooth bottom.

 

[Hatfield]

This may have already been posted, but here's a link to a case where a body took 3 YEARS to surface in a lake, and it was found very close to where the person, Joseph Loupe, initially went missing:

http://www.tennessean.com/article/2...rd-man-found-lake-3-years-after-disappearance

I trust that the dive search team did a thorough job, but IMO there is still a possibility that he is in the lake and hasn't surfaced yet.

This is how I feel too. It is a very difficult job trying to find something on bottom, so I can easily see where it could be missed.

If they do search the lake area again, IMO, I do think they could concentrate in the "general" area near where the car wrecked. The decision of how far out and how far a radius to that area is what I would expand further than what we would normally think. Like drawing a 1/2 circle around the area and then decide to make the diameter maybe 1000 feet in each direction or something like that.

I realize that is a large diameter half/circle, so of course, they could start with a smaller half/circle first like maybe 500 feet in each direction, and then if not found, only then increase the diameter of the half-circle to 1000 feet or more.