CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Rocky Mountain Hi]

Exploring a mine(s) in the area? As discussed previously there are several old mines near the trails and JG had publicly posted an interest in mines.

Now this is starting to make sense. He had an interest in exploring old mines. He/they(?) wander off-trail now and then. Maybe they encounter some form of chemical residue from the illegal grows they perhaps skirted on their way to look at a mine. This would explain the off-trail hazard LE mentioned.

I don't know anything about the chemicals involved in those grows; I'm just connecting some dots other posts have laid out. The illegal-gr0w-hazard theory is gaining credibility now, in my mind. But so did the lightning theory, after SpideySense joined us, and sketched out his theory. So we still only know that we don't know what happened, but we have a better understanding of the possibilities. That's where I'm at.

 

[fred&edna]

Great find @EndoraXplorer! Did a bit of research on Anatoxin-A aka Very Fast Death Factor (VFDF):

Some info on Anatoxin-a aka Very Fast Death Factor (VFDF):

What is it?

Anatoxin-a is a neurotoxin produced by certain species of cyanobacteria (formerly referred to as blue-green algae). Cyanobacteria are sometimes found in surface water when conditions favor growth and formation of algal blooms.

How are people exposed?

· ingesting fish or shellfish from waters containing anatoxin-a;

· having direct skin contact with water containing anatoxin-a through bathing, showering, swimming or wading;

· breathing airborne anatoxin-a while boating, waterskiing or recreating in waters with anatoxin-a present; or

· consuming drinking water containing anatoxin-a.

Drinking water treatment generally removes intact cyanobacterial cells and low levels of cyanotoxins from source waters, but during a severe algal bloom, some anatoxin-a may escape treatment.

Is Anatoxin-a in drinking water a health concern?

Information on the effects of anatoxin-a on humans is limited. However, drinking water with high levels of anatoxin-a has been found to damage the nervous system. Symptoms include muscle twitching, loss of coordination and seizures. Laboratory testing on animals show that ingesting high levels of anatoxin-a can cause death from respiratory paralysis.

Source: Anatoxin-a (drinktap.org)

I mentioned the VFDF in Thread 2, so glad you shared more detailed info! I believe anatoxin-a is becoming more prevalent in many water sources.

ETA: I've now gone so far down the rabbit hole I'm reading about Caruaru syndrome. (Dialysis patients exposed from a water source - which is not applicable to this case.) *Obviously, I need a new habit.

 

[Coquette]

Interesting that it’s now set to private. I don’t know the law on that; I suppose her next of kin would have authority to make decisions about her social media disposition even though she’s an adult.

I follow her on IG so still have access. We share yoga friends.

 

[SpideySense]

If their plan was to start somewhat early in the morning, (8:00 am, maybe,) hike down to the river, spend the day frolicking in the river, and hike back after it got cool, (and how late in the day would that have been?), how much water would they need to have taken? How many diapers for the baby?

MOO - If they were gear-heads with extra cash, they might have had Camelbaks with 3L resevoirs each, plus extra water in containers in the bag for dog and emergency. If it were me, I knew my babies’ bathroom schedule pretty well by the time they were 1yo. Probably would have brought 2 diapers plus 1 “just in case” diaper, and a small pack of wipes. For the hours spent in and by the river, that time might have been diaper-free for the most part.

My dog would have been in the river, and drinking the river water. I know a fair bit about the algae situation in CA rivers (the Russian River has warnings all the time). This case was an algae “Caution,” which means don’t let your dog eat the algae mats. There are “Warning” and then “Danger” advisories which are more serious than this one, and are more about letting your dog swim and drink. But if you go a mile or two upstream and you don’t see any algae along the way, its safe for a dog to swim and drink, in my opinion.

That’s just my opinion, and I’m not saying their situation matched this example exactly.

 

[Recidivist]

What was the water level?

Well, its a long river. I went in the Spring, so I guess the level would be as high as it gets in a drought year. In some sections the water is flowing fast and strong. In other areas its less dangerous, and not so deep.

 

[happyday]

MOO - If they were gear-heads with extra cash, they might have had Camelbaks with 3L resevoirs each, plus extra water in containers in the bag for dog and emergency. If it were me, I knew my babies’ bathroom schedule pretty well by the time they were 1yo. Probably would have brought 2 diapers plus 1 “just in case” diaper, and a small pack of wipes. For the hours spent in and by the river, that time might have been diaper-free for the most part.

My dog would have been in the river, and drinking the river water. I know a fair bit about the algae situation in CA rivers (the Russian River has warnings all the time). This case was an algae “Caution,” which means don’t let your dog eat the algae mats. There are “Warning” and then “Danger” advisories which are more serious than this one, and are more about letting your dog swim and drink. But if you go a mile or two upstream and you don’t see any algae along the way, its safe for a dog to swim and drink, in my opinion.

That’s just my opinion, and I’m not saying their situation matched this example exactly.

Ok well that makes sense b/c, I posted a picture in an earlier thread of the sign that was online for the area. I guess it was just a “caution” sign, because it said you CAN swim in the water, just don’t drink the water or let your dog eat the algae mats. I thought that was crazy! But I guess it was not at “warning” stage at that time. I believe they put up a “warning “ sign at the trailhead the day after they went missing—someone here found that out. So it must have been upgraded at that time to a warning.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

I can't really see how there would be a marijuana grow on steep (and recently burned) ground so near to the popular (when it's not 110*) trails and to the river which I presume to be popular for recreating except for the algae issue -- (which raises the question: is this year the first time the algae blooms have been an issue? Or is it a regular thing now?)

In any case I would expect any illegal mj grows to be in the backcountry away from formal maintained and popular trails. Somewhere with a small unknown side creek they can suck water from without anyone knowing, not the South Fork Merced River.

I really don't know how big a problem that is or isn't (frankly I expected illegal grows on federal land to disappear altogether once mj became legal but apparently it hasn't so I am clueless about these details). But this area just doesn't seem like a probable spot to me personally.

And in addition, I don't think a passing encounter with applied herbicide/pesticide runoff would cause instant death? I think it would be a much more subtle or cumulative problem if there was frequent repeated exposure. Unless they literally drank a bottle of it straight? Which makes no sense in this case. MOO

 

[woods]

Officials said it is possible the family drank water from the Merced River and died due to the high levels of toxic algae in the water.
High Levels Of Toxic Algae Found In Water Near Where California Family Died | iHeartRadio

 

[RedHaus]

Now this is starting to make sense. He had an interest in exploring old mines. He/they(?) wander off-trail now and then. Maybe they encounter some form of chemical residue from the illegal grows they perhaps skirted on their way to look at a mine. This would explain the off-trail hazard LE mentioned.

I don't know anything about the chemicals involved in those grows; I'm just connecting some dots other posts have laid out. The illegal-gr0w-hazard theory is gaining credibility now, in my mind. But so did the lightning theory, after SpideySense joined us, and sketched out his theory. So we still only know that we don't know what happened, but we have a better understanding of the possibilities. That's where I'm at.

Yes, @Rocky Mountain Hi, there are several viable theories, aren't there? And even more that are unspeakable.

As far as illegal grow ops, I am generally always concerned about pesticide contamination. But with regards to this case, my attention has zeroed in on the common use by grow operators of Carbofuran to intentionally poison animals who raid food and supplies in their camp sites and more recently, humans who threaten their operations / livelihood (e.g. LE). [see Audubon article ^^^.]

In addition to the Audubon article I posted early this morning, here is a wiki post on Carbonfuran that declares it "...is one of the most toxic pesticides still in use." and "has one of the highest acute toxicities to humans of any insecticide widely used on field crops... ). I ml (1/4 teaspoon) can be fatal to humans."
Carbofuran - Wikipedia

Per the Audubon article, IF the family was exposed to Carbofuran it could be Oski ate from a bait trap on the trail intended for coyotes, racoons, etc. and/or they splashed through contaminated water on the trail or a dump site and/or maybe they tripped a boobie trap that sprayed them...

I think all that sounds remote in terms of theory possibility for this case. But recall @Coquette who lives near this area has reported here LE has recently been cracking down on illegal grow ops so I wonder about heightened security and defenses around them.

 

[Auntie Cipation]

If their plan was to start somewhat early in the morning, (8:00 am, maybe,) hike down to the river, spend the day frolicking in the river, and hike back after it got cool, (and how late in the day would that have been?), how much water would they need to have taken? How many diapers for the baby?

On a day that hot there is literally no time it would be cool enough for a steep three mile hike until perhaps 4am the next morning.

Officials said it is possible the family drank water from the Merced River and died due to the high levels of toxic algae in the water.
High Levels Of Toxic Algae Found In Water Near Where California Family Died | iHeartRadio

This might just be sloppy reporting but it does make me less confident in their other details:

There is 0% chance the family drank from "the Merced River", because they were (assuming they even made it that far) at the South Fork Merced River, not the mainstem Merced River.

It is true that after the USFS closed the trails nearby, the Bureau of Land Management closed a stretch of the mainstream Merced (into which the South Fork flows), so this is where mention of the mainstem river has entered the story. But the family themselves were not anywhere near "the Merced River".

I know I'm being pedantic but I'm always of the belief that the details matter. MOO

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

I was just reading the thread on Jennifer Coleman - Found Deceased - MT - Jennifer Coleman, 34, on vacation from VA, hiking @ Glacier Natl Park, 30 Aug 2021 - a lost hiker recently found dead in Montana. (No cause of death yet.) There is an 2013 newspaper article cited in the thread which contained several interesting facts and quotes about Search and Rescue in National Parks which may have relevance here.

"Park officials cite hiking alone, not properly preparing for a trip, poor decision-making and taking on activities without the necessary expertise, gear or fitness level as factors in many of the fatalities that have occurred the past 10 decades."

"In 2012, 43 percent of the search and rescue calls in all national parks involved people who were day hiking...Rescues nationally involving hikers on overnight excursions, by comparison, accounted for 9.8 percent....'Overnight hikers typically plan better and are more prepared for sudden turns in the weather or injuries,' Phillips says. 'They're usually carrying a map and have researched their route. Day hikers, they're very spontaneous in their planning,'" (Ken Phillips, Branch Chief, SAR for the National Parks Service) [the reason the math sounds funny is that SAR also is involved in drowning and car accidents-- so things other than hiking]

"'You always want to have it in the forefront in your mind that turning around could be a good decision. Could be a great decision...It's often seemingly benign oversights that contribute to trouble, such as forgetting a life vest, not checking the forecast, being unprepared for the difficulty of a hike or setting off into the wilds alone...It's not typically one mistake that ends in a catastrophic event,it's typically a cascade of events.'" (Eric Gabriel, Ranger, Glacier National Forest)

Here's the full article: https://www.greatfallstribune.com/s...03/the-lessons-of-glacier-tragedies/28432637/

 

[gitana1]

Exploring a mine(s) in the area? As discussed previously there are several old mines near the trails and JG had publicly posted an interest in mines.

It’s possible. But are the mines way off the trail? And how do we explain no apparent COD? What roving drug gangs kill people in a manner that shows absolutely no signs? No signs of struggle, no bruises, no ligature marks, no stab wounds, no gunshots?

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

There are photos and videos of people fishing in the river so at least sections must have fish.

 

[annpats]

What roving drug gangs kill people in a manner that shows absolutely no signs? No signs of struggle, no bruises, no ligature marks, no stab wounds, no gunshots?

Apparently, they use near invisible trip wires to release toxic gases into the air. I had to google it a few weeks ago, but apparently it does, and has, happened.

 

[gitana1]

I can't really see how there would be a marijuana grow on steep (and recently burned) ground so near to the popular (when it's not 110*) trails and to the river which I presume to be popular for recreating except for the algae issue -- (which raises the question: is this year the first time the algae blooms have been an issue? Or is it a regular thing now?)

In any case I would expect any illegal mj grows to be in the backcountry away from formal maintained and popular trails. Somewhere with a small unknown side creek they can suck water from without anyone knowing, not the South Fork Merced River.

I really don't know how big a problem that is or isn't (frankly I expected illegal grows on federal land to disappear altogether once mj became legal but apparently it hasn't so I am clueless about these details). But this area just doesn't seem like a probable spot to me personally.

And in addition, I don't think a passing encounter with applied herbicide/pesticide runoff would cause instant death? I think it would be a much more subtle or cumulative problem if there was frequent repeated exposure. Unless they literally drank a bottle of it straight? Which makes no sense in this case. MOO

That’s what I’m saying as far as grow location goes.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

But there was no reports of dead fish in this area. I was recently in that area, in the river, and I saw not a single dead fish anywhere.

You stated elsewhere you were there in the spring, the algae bloom happened after that. I am almost certain I saw reports of dead fish re: this river, will take another look later. Can't recall if it was in an article or on social media. If algae would kill other animals, it stands to reason it would also kill fish, no?

 

[gitana1]

Apparently, they use near invisible trip wires to release toxic gases into the air. I had to google it a few weeks ago, but apparently it does, and has, happened.

Ah. I’m getting the theories mixed up. So we are talking about potentially being exposed to a toxin and then succumbing as a result? I suppose it’s possible. It depends on how long it would take to make them sick. Because it looks like they were halfway up the hill back to the car when they succumbed? Do I have that right?

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I was just reading the thread on Jennifer Coleman - Found Deceased - MT - Jennifer Coleman, 34, on vacation from VA, hiking @ Glacier Natl Park, 30 Aug 2021 - a lost hiker recently found dead in Montana. (No cause of death yet.) There is an 2013 newspaper article cited in the thread which contained several interesting facts and quotes about Search and Rescue in National Parks which may have relevance here.

"Park officials cite hiking alone, not properly preparing for a trip, poor decision-making and taking on activities without the necessary expertise, gear or fitness level as factors in many of the fatalities that have occurred the past 10 decades."

"In 2012, 43 percent of the search and rescue calls in all national parks involved people who were day hiking...Rescues nationally involving hikers on overnight excursions, by comparison, accounted for 9.8 percent....'Overnight hikers typically plan better and are more prepared for sudden turns in the weather or injuries,' Phillips says. 'They're usually carrying a map and have researched their route. Day hikers, they're very spontaneous in their planning,'" (Ken Phillips, Branch Chief, SAR for the National Parks Service) [the reason the math sounds funny is that SAR also is involved in drowning and car accidents-- so things other than hiking]

"'You always want to have it in the forefront in your mind that turning around could be a good decision. Could be a great decision...It's often seemingly benign oversights that contribute to trouble, such as forgetting a life vest, not checking the forecast, being unprepared for the difficulty of a hike or setting off into the wilds alone...It's not typically one mistake that ends in a catastrophic event,it's typically a cascade of events.'" (Eric Gabriel, Ranger, Glacier National Forest)

Here's the full article: https://www.greatfallstribune.com/s...03/the-lessons-of-glacier-tragedies/28432637/

That article is certainly eye opening.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

MOO - A fish kill, which I think is what you’re referring to, is a completely different occurrence. It’s caused by plant-like algae (not blue-green algae) using up all the dissolved oxygen in the water, thereby suffocating all the local fish. That’s not what causes an algae warning for dogs and humans. And I haven’t seen any documents indicating a fish kill in the South Fork Merced, or any water tests indicating toxic algae upstream from Hites Cove.

The particular toxin that the river tested positive for is lethal to fish per this article.
Acute effects of an anatoxin-a producing cyanobacterium on juvenile fish—Cyprinus carpio L. - ScienceDirect

 

[SophieRose]

There are photos and videos of people fishing in the river so at least sections must have fish.

What month and year were they taken?