CA - Jonathan Gerrish, Ellen Chung, daughter, 1 & dog, suspicious death hiking area, Aug 2021 #3

[Officer Dibble]

What puzzles me about Ellen “going for help” is that she didn’t have a phone (only one phone was referenced and given to the FBI on 8/24 for processing, and it was Jonathan’s, found in his right front pocket). Even if there’s poor reception in the canyon, she could’ve called as soon as she reached reception - if she had a phone - but she didn’t.

I've voiced before that its possible she went back to the car in a panic, realised she had no key, rushed back to get the key then succumbed on the return journey to the car. JMO MOO

 

[Officer Dibble]

Certainly, that choice is up to you. But I think you might be missing out on a golden opportunity to enjoy Mariposa before the Murder Hornets arrive.

and perhaps a UFO?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

When the deputy found the truck, a search-and-rescue team hiked down the steep and straight road

This phrase, "steep and straight road" could apply to either direction from their vehicle, which is why I initially thought they could have gone either route. (From their vehicle down Savage-Lundy there is a straight stretch, starting as an actual road until past the gate, all above the switchback section).

But then when the article later said

They called in a second search team that began winding down the switchbacks that complete the loop

that made it clear to me that the family went the Hites Cove route from the truck down, and along the river, and then were coming back up the switchbacks of Savage-Lundy.

So it seems they were "almost done with the loop" after all.

MOO

ETA: I'm not actually quoting @woods but woods' quoting of the article.

 

[woods]

Hites Cove Road, one of the gnarliest roads in California
Hite Cove is small mining camp tucked along the Merced River. The road to the town is a nice 4x4 trail with tight turns.

Located within the Sierra National Forest, the road to the town is totally unpaved. It’s a maintained fire road. It requires a river crossing to reach the town. The trail is very steep and the rocks are pretty tall. This trail is very hard on brakes if you don't have low gearing or crawl control. You'll find lots of poison oak here, a few mosquitoes, tick and rattlesnakes.

Starting from Jerseydale, the road is 6.11km (3.8 miles) long. 4wd vehicle required. The road is seasonally closed from early November through June and rolls through the narrow canyon of the Merced River. The trail is very narrow with dangerous drop offs: 2 vehicles meeting head-on may result in one driver backing up as much as a half mile to a safe turnout.

 

[gitana1]

RS&BBM

BBM
Those are easy questions for me to answer, @gitana1, since that's my original idea and have not moved far from it based on all our discussions so far. And @lotus777, you are correct with respect to my thinking... and thanks for the nickname!

Our resident clinicians, an astute paramedic (@NSamuelle) and veterinarian (@Runswithdogs) have made it abundantly clear, as have all the literature others have posted throughout our threads, that the conditions of that day, even as early as 8:00am were so brutal that the dog and baby, if not the adults as well, would have been in crisis as early as 1/2 hour in to their hike. That does not take them very far --- perhaps 1.5 miles. Since they were found on the S-L trail 1.5 miles from their car, logic in my mind puts two and two together that they likely did not do the loop. They only got that far. IMO.

And I think at this point, my thinking is they may not have died all at once... but rather that cascade or spiral of death occurred. Perhaps it was the dog first, so they stopped to help, then the baby, then the parents overcome by grief can't function well, then they succumb, perhaps JG first. Poor EC may have crawled towards the truck in desperation. IMO.

Now, there are other darker scenarios that rumble in my mind that don't necessarily start with heat stroke, but could end with heat stroke. And those are ideas I cannot discuss here out of respect for WS TOS and the families.

That makes a lot of sense to me given the conditions that day and the fact that they were with a furry dog. Notwithstanding others’ apparent experiences with hiking in 100 degree heat with animals.

For 4.5 hours they would’ve needed to carry at least a liter per person per hour, and at least as much, if not more, for the dog, because you have to wet their core.

So that would be about 15 liters they would’ve had to carry, not including water for the baby and baby stuff. That’s equivalent to 30 standard, individual plastic water bottles.

I believe they would know that as looking at Gerrish’s Alltrails accounts he was not a novice.

That seems prohibitive. Much too much to carry.

So yeah, I can see them thinking to do a shorter hike to the river but then somehow getting stuck pretty quickly. But if they made it down 1.5 miles, that would be rather quick going down hill. Maybe not quick enough to succumb to the heat. So maybe they went down and were coming back up the same way they went down?

 

[wary]

I've voiced before that its possible she went back to the car in a panic, realised she had no key, rushed back to get the key then succumbed on the return journey to the car. JMO MOO

I hope the ground was appropriate for preserving footprints.

 

[gitana1]

I have no facts to support this scenario, only a personal gut feeling (and I think a post by @RickshawFan a long while back.) I simply cannot believe the family was able to hike for hours in the day's extreme heat. I believe Philip Kreycik was done in 3-4 hours. Of course, the Sheriff has his evidence and belief which we've only been told. If anyone can explain how two adults, a dog, and a baby could survive an 8 mi hike in 90 degrees and above, please explain. Again.

Agreed. And it reached 109 that day? Because if they started on the trail at 8:00 am and intended to do the standard 4.5 hour loop, they would’ve been hiking uphill at around 11:00 am, if they trudged straight through with no stops. Later if they did stop. On a brutally barren, hot slope.

 

[gitana1]

The scenario I've been pondering is that they made it down to the river, perhaps barely/already starting to feel heat effects, and then spent hours trying to cool down, delaying coming back up, perhaps erroneously thinking it would cool down shortly after the sun went down.

My theory does not specify at what time they attempted to climb back up to the car -- could have been late afternoon, early evening, during the night, or even the next morning -- but obviously something prevented them from succeeding. Whether heat, or effects from illness (algae related or otherwise), or something else.

I do think that if only one of them was initially slowed by problems, they would have all stopped together to deal with it, at least at first.

Ellen leaving the phone with Jon suggests to me that he may have still be alive when she tried to continue on -- perhaps hoping against hope that he might get a signal or that she might be able to text him once help is on the way, etc.

MOO

How far was she from him?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

How far was she from him?

Now I can't remember whether it was 10m/30ft or 30m/100ft. Pretty sure it was one or the other. Let me check articles.

 

[woods]

How far was she from him?

About 30 yards, a little further up the hill.

 

[gitana1]

“The family was found 1½ miles below their truck on a series of switchbacks, appearing to be near the end of their hike.”

Sheriff officials said temperatures there appeared to range from 103 and 109 in certain parts of that trail between 11:50 a.m. and 5:50 p.m. Aug. 15, the day the family is believed to have been hiking it.
Mariposa sheriff shares update in mysterious family death case in Sierra near Yosemite

When the deputy found the truck, a search-and-rescue team hiked down the steep and straight road with flashlights and found shoe and paw prints similar to what you’d expect from a family of that size with a dog, Briese said.

At 3:20 a.m., the sheriff’s office reserved a search helicopter for daybreak. They called in a second search team that began winding down the switchbacks that complete the loop back up to the Forest Service gate. This section of the Hites Cove Trail makes a loop, with the halfway point the south fork of the Merced River.

About 1.5 miles down the switchbacks, around 11 a.m. Tuesday, the team found the family in the middle of the trail.
'Not one clue': The mystery is only deepening around the family found dead on a Sierra trail

Hmm. So the foot and paw prints indicated they likely DID do the loop. So if they started downhill on the part with the wildflowers and then hit the river, they could’ve hit the river about an hour and a half in? So around 9:30 am. Then they would’ve traveled the river bank and maybe stopped for a bit. Then if they started up the trail they may have reached the base around 11? Leaving them with an hour or so to go in extreme heat.

So maybe they just badly misjudged and got stuck. I doubt the carried enough water. So possibly they tried to desperately cool down with poisonous water which compounded their problems.

Confusing case.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

Hmm. So the foot and paw prints indicated they likely DID do the loop. So if they started downhill on the part with the wildflowers and then hit the river, they could’ve hit the river about an hour and a half in? So around 9:30 am. Then they would’ve traveled the river bank and maybe stopped for a bit. Then if they started up the trail they may have reached the base around 11? Leaving them with an hour or so to go in extreme heat.

So maybe they just badly misjudged and got stuck. I doubt the carried enough water. So possibly they tried to desperately cool down with poisonous water which compounded their problems.

Confusing case.

The wildflowers are only in early spring, but, yep, it sounds that way. Maybe there will be phone data to verify the route. But, the phone could also have been overheating. Time will tell.

 

[gitana1]

The wildflowers are only in early spring, but, yep, it sounds that way. Maybe there will be phone data to verify the route. But, the phone could also have been overheating. Time will tell.

Yeah.

 

[sasha17]

The wildflowers are only in early spring, but, yep, it sounds that way. Maybe there will be phone data to verify the route. But, the phone could also have been overheating. Time will tell.

I hope the phone will have more data on the route but if the footprints are correct and they did nearly the full loop, I wonder if that was the intended plan.

Jonathan researched the route the day before the hike, right? That was in the official timeline. Perhaps they planned a down/back route to the river, but then at the river, something changed. If there was no phone service down there and he hadn't saved the trail map on his phone in advance, he could have been going off his memory of what he researched the day before. Maybe he incorrectly remembered the loop route and thought taking the loop would be a shorter or easier way to return to the car, rather than returning the way they came. If the hike down to the river had been really strenuous (and I'm sure it was, in that heat!), they may have wanted to try some other way to get back to the car, even if that other way wasn't the original plan.

Perhaps it was a case of sunk cost fallacy, unsure when it would be shorter/easier to turn back and backtrack versus continuing on the loop to get back to the car.

I just can't imagine a situation in which they intentionally planned that long of a loop hike on that hot of a day with a baby and a dog.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

I hope the phone will have more data on the route but if the footprints are correct and they did nearly the full loop, I wonder if that was the intended plan.

Jonathan researched the route the day before the hike, right? That was in the official timeline. Perhaps they planned a down/back route to the river, but then at the river, something changed. If there was no phone service down there and he hadn't saved the trail map on his phone in advance, he could have been going off his memory of what he researched the day before. Maybe he incorrectly remembered the loop route and thought taking the loop would be a shorter or easier way to return to the car, rather than returning the way they came. If the hike down to the river had been really strenuous (and I'm sure it was, in that heat!), they may have wanted to try some other way to get back to the car, even if that other way wasn't the original plan.

Perhaps it was a case of sunk cost fallacy, unsure when it would be shorter/easier to turn back and backtrack versus continuing on the loop to get back to the car.

I just can't imagine a situation in which they intentionally planned that long of a loop hike on that hot of a day with a baby and a dog.

Sunk cost is a good theory.

 

[rosesfromangels]

In such an unexplained multiple death scenario as this, I hope the toxicologists have checked off the unlikely boxes of hard to detect poisons such as ethylene glycol. While self harm isn't indicated in this case (that I know of), I would want to check that box off while pursuing these other hypothesis such as toxic algae, etc.

Amateur opinion and speculation

 

[kittythehare]

Hmm. So the foot and paw prints indicated they likely DID do the loop. So if they started downhill on the part with the wildflowers and then hit the river, they could’ve hit the river about an hour and a half in? So around 9:30 am. Then they would’ve traveled the river bank and maybe stopped for a bit. Then if they started up the trail they may have reached the base around 11? Leaving them with an hour or so to go in extreme heat.

So maybe they just badly misjudged and got stuck. I doubt the carried enough water. So possibly they tried to desperately cool down with poisonous water which compounded their problems.

Confusing case.

That actually makes a lot of sense. THANKS!

 

[10ofRods]

No wildflowers this time of year. Spring only (and only spectacular if we get some rain).

Poisonous water probably does play a part - I had no idea that toxic algae could through off so many bizarre toxins (created through bacteria, apparently).

 

[SophieRose]

I posted in thread one that I thought they may have planned to go down Hites Cove to Nutmeg Gulch, a waterhole, as mentioned in the comments on AllTrails and then go back the same way. I thought maybe the steepness going down may have been difficult with the baby and he thought switchbacks, though longer, might be easier going up.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

No wildflowers this time of year. Spring only (and only spectacular if we get some rain).

Poisonous water probably does play a part - I had no idea that toxic algae could through off so many bizarre toxins (created through bacteria, apparently).

Right?! Same. I read that people on a patio at a seaside restaurant were impacted by aerosolized algae in the ocean, had breathing issues and the restaurant was subsequently closed. Not sure if that is possible with the type of algae in the river but I had no idea.

I do think it would have been extremely difficult to keep a hot and thirsty dog away from the river, regardless of what the plan may or may not have been, I think Oski would have been trying to dart down to cool off even from the HC trail if they were on that leg.