I suspect that, if we are even able to learn the details of what happened to them, there won't be just one cause but rather a cascading failure of events.
Let's say they somehow initially skirted the issue of the heat being extreme, by hiking downhill in the mid-morning hours when it was hot but not yet extreme.
They make it to the river and cool off. Briefly? For hours? We don't know yet.
Do they realize the aggressiveness (steepness, even after the gentling effects of the switchbacks) of the S-L trail? We don't know. If they did, they could have gone back the way they came down, but that would have added the mileage of the river stretch they would have had to re-cover.
So they start back up, in the now-extreme heat. (no matter what time of day they left the river, unless it was in the 4-5am range, it would be very very hot and the exertion would make it very much hotter.
OK, so they are moving along as best they can in these extreme circumstances, and now the dog becomes ill or lethargic or even collapses. Maybe from the toxin, maybe from the heat/exertion, maybe a combination. We don't know.
The family of course does not abandon their ailing dog, but carrying him along with the baby and whatever other gear they had pushes the effort required beyond the doable zone -- maybe Jon is carrying both dog and baby, maybe not, we don't know. Maybe EC takes the baby in her arms for a while, or even tries the carrier if it fits her. Every time they make any change like this they slow or stop for a few minutes, adding to their heat exposure.
Ultimately comes a sequence of events we don't know the specifics of.
We don't know if EC was 100 feet ahead because she was trying to race to the truck while Jon tried to rest or was already making no sense, whether she was "wandering" in her throes of heat stroke, whether she was putting distance due to risk of lightning etc. She didn't take the baby with her, suggesting to me either that the baby was already obviously dead (but how would they know for sure? I think that is unlikely) or that Jon was still somewhat ok, so she was leaving the baby with him while she tried to go as fast as she could (I think this more likely).
We don't know why she only made it 100 feet farther. Was she then overcome with dizziness? Had she made it farther but then came back for some reason? I suspect we will never know that answer unless evidence is found of her farther ahead, or in notes left, etc.
If the adults stopped moving as they were overcome with heat stroke, the dog and the baby would have died soon afterwards even if they were ok at the time. (Which they probably were not given their susceptibility to heat was higher than the adults. But we just don't know.)
The cooling effect of the shade from the thunderstorm cell may not have helped them much. It may have made them feel a bit of relief, as 110* degrees dropped to perhaps 100* and maybe there was even a breeze as the cell moved overhead. But the thermal mass of the ground would not have cooled much from a brief few hours of localized shade. Air has hardly any mass, so the cooling effect of air would be minimal when the mass of the ground was still so hot.
I think it's completely possible heat alone could have caused the deaths, but anything else they encountered would only have exacerbated the risk from the heat.
MOO
We don't know that they didn't, via phone at least (ie attempted text messages or notes in a note app etc). LE has not released that kind of information yet.
But I do suspect that they thought they would make it up until the moment the heat took the ability to think clearly (as has been described earlier in the thread) at which point they couldn't really make those kinds of decisions.
MOO
Brava Auntie! This is very much in line with how I imagine things may have unfolded, except written out so much more eloquently & respectfully than I could have put it. Found myself nodding the whole time.
Does heatstroke cause pain? I know there's the confusion and the delirium, but does someone suffering from heatstroke pass out and then die after falling unconscious, I wonder?
Heatstroke can kill via several different mechanisms so kind of depends on how it kills you in terms of pain/suffering inflicted.
As an example, these are 2 patients (canine) that I lost this summer to heatstroke. Warning for possibly graphic/difficult content. One patient presented after being found in the yard unresponsive with a core temperature of 108 (normal in the dog is up to 102), we began active cooling & shock treatment. Once they are into the 103-4 range you STOP active cooling as you can initiate a very annoying & temporarily irreversible hypothermia (annoying in that it causes shivering.. or muscle fasciculations to increase core temp, the opposite of what you want). We got her into normothermic range & trended her down nicely but damaging process had already started. She experienced cardiac arrest & was resuscitated with CPR, a notable feat in vet med that I have to credit to my awesome team. However she remained intubated on room air as she never regained a swallow reflex & could therefore not protect her airways. After the one CPR event family changed status to DNR. We continued aggressive treatment until her organs began to fail & she was circling another arrest event, at that time family elected humane euthanasia. She never regained consciousness throughout the approximate 12hrs of treatment. It is hard for me to say she suffered, as she showed very little response to stimuli throughout this treatment.
The other patient I lost this summer to heatstroke was a short faced breed left for a short period of time in the back yard while family ran an errand, he was found unresponsive when they got home. They dunked him in the pool (he always used to cool himself off in there before, why didn’t he today?) which seemingly revived him and rushed him in. He was surprisingly normothermic on presentation, but the damage from the heat had already been done. He promptly broke with “shock gut” ie spewing hemorrhagic diarrhea shortly before progressing into acute respiratory distress syndrome ie lungs filling with inflammatory fluids. There was undoubtedly some degree of fear & panic prior to his family making the swift decision to ease his suffering.
The subpoena for the phone was granted on 8/24. It’s puzzling that they have not released any further info. Ellen, apparently, did not have a phone. Only Jonathan’s was found (front right pocket) and sent for analysis. I find that so odd. People take their phones everywhere!
Yes I always take my phone on my hikes, despite knowing I won’t have service.. because how else am I going to clog my phone’s memory with pictures of my dogs doing dog things in nature??
Having lost a beloved dog last spring, I cannot really express how much I value having documented all our adventures no matter how trivial. I would think with having a kiddo & a dog on a hike, you’d want to have a phone just for snapping pics, if not for potentially using as an emergency communication device. It’s really surprising to me sometimes when I’m somewhere seemingly remote & then a bunch of text alerts come in, so I always assume, hey it might work in a pinch?
I’ve looked up homicide cases using ethylene glycol, and the victims do not drop dead within just a few hours.
Example: Dr. George Blumenchein drank 2 cups of coffee laced with ethylene glycol and a few hours later, he started feeling sick, within 16 hours he was in an emergency room. He expressed some surprise to his colleague when she served it
sweet as he was a black coffee drinker.
Also:
Below are the typical symptoms **when these are ingested alone**. When co-ingested with ethanol, onset of toxicity may be delayed.
ethylene glycol
- Stage 1 (30 min-12 hours) – mimics ethanol intoxication
- Gastric irritation (pain, nausea, vomiting)
- Acting drunk (ataxia, nystagmus)
- May see CNS depression, cerebral edema, seizure
- Stage 2 (12-24 hours) = cardiopulmonary stage
- Myocardial dysfunction, shock
- Tachypnea, ARDS
- Stage 3 (24-72 hours) = renal stage
- Renal failure is the primary problem
- Stage 4
- Late neurologic sequelae can occur
Ethylene glycol & methanol poisoning
> A significant number of poisonings with ethylene glycol occur in California each year. In calendar year 2000, the CPCS consulted on 469 exposures to EG. These included
5 patients who later died and 38 who had either moderate or major effects attributed to EG. Minor effects were attributed to 62 exposures. Only 2 serious cases, and no deaths, occurred in persons under age 20.
Diagnosis and Treatment of Ethylene Glycol (Antifreeze) Ingestion · California Poison Control System (CPCS)
This follows relatively the same course in dogs although the usually skip from step 1 to step 3. That being said, EG toxicity is really dropping off in vet med as many antifreeze manufacturers have changed the formulation to contain some other less sweet tasting/palatable -ol (forget what it is). Definitely out there is the world to acquire, but less natural exposure in dogs these days. It is a terrible toxicity to witness as stage 1 can be somewhat transient & vague - they might vomit, get a little stumbly & then seem ok, but no one really notices they’ve started drinking & peeing a ton…& then they stop peeing, & get real sick, & then come to the ER…& there’s very little you can do.
Thanks
@NSamuelle. I first presume that EC
did have a phone with her but perhaps in their pack. And LE mentioning only JG's phone being found may
not mean she did not have hers with her somewhere. Perhaps even, in a state of delirium or frustration EC could have thrown it into the brush and dust.
All that said,
IF, IMO, EC did not have her phone, where was it? In the truck, at the home they were staying? At a place they visited before starting their hike - like a coffee shop maybe or perhaps one of their rental properties? Or maybe she'd accidentally dropped it while taking a bio break off trail?
Anyhow, I ponder these scenarios and wonder what each might tell LE about the "why" or "how" or "when" of this tragic event. When her phone was last used for instance could be telling.
Does anyone know or remember which parent posted to IG or FB early that fateful morning (8/15) the empty baby pack that was briefly visible to the public? If it was from EC's phone or not could perhaps tell LE something.
Was that picture ever actually seen by anyone here? I figured it was a private picture to friends & we’ve just speculated from the mention of it in some MSM article.
I’m curious if someone that has seen it can describe it? (The backpack, not the post per se).
Both the phone & the backpack raise a couple questions for me re: lightning.
Would the phone (or any electronics in general) on a person struck by lightning malfunction in any major way or at least in a way that could indicate lightning strike occurring?
Would the backpack/baby carrier, if having a metal frame or stantions, have “attracted” lightning? Either from the ground or the sky?
RS&BBM
Thanks
@woods. If Mods will allow us to explore poisons commonly used in murder cases, I'd like to add.
I will not discuss a "how" or "who" or "when" since this is just informative. But I do think the prolonged toxicology evaluation by LE provide cause for us to explore this angle further, IMO.
A. PBS episode explored 5 common poisons used in murder cases:
1. Arsenic
2. Atropine
3. Stychnine
4. Cyanide
5. Thallium
An interesting quick read:
Executed in Error ~ The Five Top Poisons | Secrets of the Dead | PBS
B. Poisons Used in Famous Cases:
1. Belladonna or Nightshade
(like atropine, above as #2).
2. Asp (snake) Venom
3. Poison Hemlock
4. Strychnine
5. Arsenic
6. Pollonium
Another quick read:
6 Poisons That Have Been Used for Murder
C. Common Homicidal Poisons - technical data with timeframes and possible ambiguous autopsy findings.
1. Ethylene Glycol
2. Arsenic
3. Botulinus Toxin
4. Cyanide
5. Sodium Fluoroacetate
(aka Compound 1080)
6. Strychnine
7. Thallium
A very technical but fascinating read:
https://www.google.com/url?sa=t&source=web&rct=j&url=https://link.springer.com/content/pdf/bbm%3A978-1-59745-256-4%2F1.pdf&ved=2ahUKEwjXt4rx6PfyAhWuGFkFHRSuArgQFnoECC4QAQ&usg=AOvVaw1Hpc76AECNWsEzhS1LLaSk&cshid=1631395128621
I have yet to digest all this to distill these lists into "possible" poisons in relation to this case but will try later. Anyone else is welcome to it...
The key criteria, IMO are water soluable, tasteless, fast-acting, and ambiguous findings on autopsy.
Well this list is scary. I also would consider a chemical that might not necessarily be fatal, but could incapacitate & then heat exposure would do the rest. I don’t want to go down the road of speculation too much, but something like that could be an entirely accidental poisoning.
Unless you have experienced it or have seen someone else stricken, you just can not imagine how quickly it kills. It incapacitates you before realize you are in danger. Your mind doesn't register things and you are drained of energy.
If no ice , cold water, air conditioning, or emergency services are immediately available, death will occur within 30 minutes.
Thank you for sharing your terrifying experience, I am glad stranger angels recognized the signs & that you are here able to share it.
I don’t know how to bold quotes, so I deleted the rest because I thought this is the huge takeaway. There is some degree of complacency with heat & I think feeling that it can be tolerated because it has been previously. If you’ve seen it or felt it you will never forget it & will always be afraid of the heat. That fear doesn’t keep me from doing the things I love it hot temperatures, but it makes me take a lot of extra precautions & pay extra attention to the signs in my body & the signs I observe in my dogs. I ALWAYS err on the side of caution, rather than push to a point you can’t get back from. That 30 min window closes quick.
When I was a little, I wasn’t a great water drinker, & my mom always used to say “by the time you’re thirsty, you’re already dehydrated”. I think that can be applied to heat as well, the first inkling you might feel that the heat’s making you feel a little “funny”, heat exhaustion is starting & you best be getting out & away from it while you’ve still got your faculties about you.
I am not 100% married to any theory right now aside from Oski died from heatstroke +/- BG algae. I think heatstroke was a very real possibility for the 2 adults, given the exertional demands of the hike alone in addition to the possibility of watching their beloved dog fall ill rapidly & either trying to tend to him or just becoming more stressed/tired/confused at a time when rapid decisive action was needed (not a judgement by any means, just acknowledging that not everyone is calm & collected in crises) but there are still so many big questions that I wish could be answered. Regardless of any definitive COD (truthfully I somewhat anticipate not getting one as tragic as that would be for the family/friends) I do wish that more awareness would could out about heat injuries just as discussing this as a very real possibility for this family. I do think more & more heat injuries are going to occur in the coming summers… & I agree, can’t put my finger fully on it, it’s not based on any science or data, but it just felt different this last one.
MOO
