Found Deceased CA - Philip Kreycik, 37, Pleasanton Ridge Regional Park, 10 Jul 2021 #2

[runspired]

Chris, did you see those small red flags that Sgt Kelly referred to along the game trail that Philip followed? He said he thought those were the type of flags that contractors sometimes use that they stick in the ground and that they were on part of that path of that game trail Initial autopsy indicates no foul play in death of Philip Kreycik – East Bay Times

The quote was in case you run into the paywall ... "He said small red flags similar to those used by contractors were found stuck in the ground along a portion of the game trail, but he was not sure why they were there."

He didn't say if they were at the beginning or midway through and how many there were, or whether they were scattered around at random places. Did you and the searchers see them around the Pleasanton Ridge park from time to time or were they just in this location? I'm not sure, but maybe they could have been there to perhaps mark off the Valle Vista or some other trail they haven't built yet that are shown on this concept map in the north section (just a guess) https://www.ebparks.org/civicax/filebank/blobdload.aspx?blobid=26896

Do you have any idea why the red flags around there might have been there? Sgt. Kelly according to the article said he did not know.

I do, it’s a detail I’d rather not discuss currently. Suffice it to say as I’ve strongly hinted multiple times he was not found on a game trail.

 

[Deleted member 222031]

Hi folks.

I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. We may make it public, in fact I believe it eventually becomes an official part of the public record so it may not even be our choice, though it is something we intend to eventually share.

There are a number of reasons to hold off still for the family to finish their grieving and finish putting together the full picture of what occurred, but sans track I’ll still say a few things.

the watch data does not have temperature or HR data. It has cadence and GPX track only, both of which tell a pretty compelling but unfortunately incomplete story.

the worst thing I can tell you is that it ends before the end.

the most expected things I can tell you are that it (1) clarified his route to the top was roughly what we assumed (and not what was drawn), (2) that his speed to the top was exactly what we presumed and he cooked himself in the process (~18min) (he owns a lot of crowns that will be hard to take on Strava were we to take that public) (3) that the footprints on Mariposa were his though his route to there was different than expected though in line with one of our theorized re-routes for the amount of time he’d estimated he’d be out there, and (4) that the first hint of trouble was only 25min in, the first compromised decision 31min in, the first highly irrational decision was roughly 38min in, and he was incapacitated by 48min.

Heat strikes quickly.

Thank you for sharing these details. Condolences to all who love and searched for Philip.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

Hi folks. I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. . . .Heat strikes quickly.

Wow. Just wow. This makes everything so much clearer about the danger of heat and how fast this tragedy happened. I'm shocked.

@runspired I'm curious and not a runner, so I'm not able to follow all the scenarios. But from the data, were there decisions Phil could have made which may have had a different outcome? Or was he too far from the car when the heat effects struck no matter what he chose? I hope you don't think I'm victim-shaming. I'm just trying to understand.

 

[terracotta1982]

I added up the approximate distances that Philip may have run that day based on the shortened loop via Mariposa. I tried to use Google maps to do this. It may be a coincidence, but when I did this I ended up with about 6 miles. I am not sure what this means, but here are the segments I used, and hope I did not make any mistakes when trying to put these routes on Google maps, which is not exactly easy:

.2 miles from Moller Ranch staging area via Moller Ranch Drive to beginning of trail at top of the street

.3 miles (a little more than that) from beginning of trail at top of street to end of Moller Property via the Moller Ranch trail [Note this was a saga because Google maps defaults the route up Tehan Canyon Rd, but I could not get an exact route so I did the best I could]

1.5 miles (approximate) from portion of Lying Stump Shortcut Trail to entrance of Pleasanton Ridge park boundary

2.9 miles for loop on the Pleasanton Ridge assuming North Ridge Tr, Cowing Tr, Sinbad Creek Tr, Mariposa Tr, back to North Ridge Tr (note this is shortened loop corresponding to the Aug 2019 Strava run route but in the counterclockwise direction)

.6 miles from North Ridge Tr heading north to gate at the South boundary of Poole property (landbank EBRPD) where Google maps stops calculating distances. Here is the aerial view of the gate I am talking about Google Maps

about .5 miles from that Gate to around where Philip's body was found near the end of the North Ridge Tr end point in the middle of the Poole property (landbank EBRPD)---this is a guess because Google does not measure any distances north of that gate at all.

Hi folks.

I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. We may make it public, in fact I believe it eventually becomes an official part of the public record so it may not even be our choice, though it is something we intend to eventually share.

There are a number of reasons to hold off still for the family to finish their grieving and finish putting together the full picture of what occurred, but sans track I’ll still say a few things.

the watch data does not have temperature or HR data. It has cadence and GPX track only, both of which tell a pretty compelling but unfortunately incomplete story.

the worst thing I can tell you is that it ends before the end.

the most expected things I can tell you are that it (1) clarified his route to the top was roughly what we assumed (and not what was drawn), (2) that his speed to the top was exactly what we presumed and he cooked himself in the process (~18min) (he owns a lot of crowns that will be hard to take on Strava were we to take that public) (3) that the footprints on Mariposa were his though his route to there was different than expected though in line with one of our theorized re-routes for the amount of time he’d estimated he’d be out there, and (4) that the first hint of trouble was only 25min in, the first compromised decision 31min in, the first highly irrational decision was roughly 38min in, and he was incapacitated by 48min.

Heat strikes quickly.

Thanks runspired. Would you be willing to share the "first sign of trouble" and "highly irrational decision" points of his trail. That would help everyone who runs/planning to run this trail be more mindful of where the danger points are and may even save a life! Thank you!

Hi folks.

I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. We may make it public, in fact I believe it eventually becomes an official part of the public record so it may not even be our choice, though it is something we intend to eventually share.

There are a number of reasons to hold off still for the family to finish their grieving and finish putting together the full picture of what occurred, but sans track I’ll still say a few things.

the watch data does not have temperature or HR data. It has cadence and GPX track only, both of which tell a pretty compelling but unfortunately incomplete story.

the worst thing I can tell you is that it ends before the end.

the most expected things I can tell you are that it (1) clarified his route to the top was roughly what we assumed (and not what was drawn), (2) that his speed to the top was exactly what we presumed and he cooked himself in the process (~18min) (he owns a lot of crowns that will be hard to take on Strava were we to take that public) (3) that the footprints on Mariposa were his though his route to there was different than expected though in line with one of our theorized re-routes for the amount of time he’d estimated he’d be out there, and (4) that the first hint of trouble was only 25min in, the first compromised decision 31min in, the first highly irrational decision was roughly 38min in, and he was incapacitated by 48min.

Heat strikes quickly.

 

[CocoTutu]

I just want to commend the local community & all who were involved in the search for Philip. I'm local and was able to adjust my work schedule to help out some. It was a well organized and phenomenal effort that folks put out to find him, and the unwavering commitment from his friends and family made it possible for people like me to come in and help when we could. I hope there will be a public way to serve his memory-- be it outdoor awareness courses for youth, a memorial run, or both.

It's important for those not from here or new to the Bay to get how drastic our microclimates can be. I headed to the coast that day as I could feel around 10 that it was going to be a scorcher and it was a good 40 degrees cooler there. I've hiked Pleasanton Ridge in the past and had to choose other routes because I was baking & those were just on days that were on record as 80s- there's likely not temp gauges in the hottest places of public lands. Also for those that commented how could he have been missed- it's really the opposite in most searches on wild or park lands... it can be extremely difficult to find someone who's incapacitated. I've done much solo hiking and will def change up the way I do some things after this. I wish the outcome had been different, but immense respect & gratitude to all those who put so much into this search.

 

[avalonisland]

Hi folks.

I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. We may make it public, in fact I believe it eventually becomes an official part of the public record so it may not even be our choice, though it is something we intend to eventually share.

There are a number of reasons to hold off still for the family to finish their grieving and finish putting together the full picture of what occurred, but sans track I’ll still say a few things.

the watch data does not have temperature or HR data. It has cadence and GPX track only, both of which tell a pretty compelling but unfortunately incomplete story.

the worst thing I can tell you is that it ends before the end.

the most expected things I can tell you are that it (1) clarified his route to the top was roughly what we assumed (and not what was drawn), (2) that his speed to the top was exactly what we presumed and he cooked himself in the process (~18min) (he owns a lot of crowns that will be hard to take on Strava were we to take that public) (3) that the footprints on Mariposa were his though his route to there was different than expected though in line with one of our theorized re-routes for the amount of time he’d estimated he’d be out there, and (4) that the first hint of trouble was only 25min in, the first compromised decision 31min in, the first highly irrational decision was roughly 38min in, and he was incapacitated by 48min.

Heat strikes quickly.

At 25 mins in, how many miles do you think PK had clocked/run? I'm just wondering if the time crunch was a trigger in the trouble PK may have gotten in. PK seemed to lock himself in to a 12:35ish ETA in Stockton at about 10:46am. Like if PK did not have to rush a run, perhaps the trouble PK would have been less likely to occur if PK had more time to complete the run perhaps? The temps on 7/10 did not significantly increase from say when PK got out of his car, so I'm just wondering how an experienced runner who completed many miles of run night prior would be so compelled to run alone, without GPS real time tracking, water, proper clothing, marked trail, or maybe PK had all safety measures met and his body had some sort of medical issue?

 

[Auntie Cipation]

So sad for him and his family and friends.

Depending on how familiar he was or wasn't with heat exhaustion/stroke, he may have thought that resting in the shade for a while would be all he needed to then be able to walk back out to the car.

His story is a lesson for sure, for me at least.

 

[distracted]

I was more sad for those folks than personally offended. I fully grok how many not-great men there are out there. But to seriously know so few that someone being emotionally aware of a friend / willing to go back and forth to ensure we could hit his schedule / wanting to talk about life became a flag for lover? I hope everyone who jumped to that assumption comes to know more men that give them faith in humanity.

I appreciate you all following along in the search, and for giving me a bit of a stress relief outlet. A decent part of me just needed someone not directly invested in the search to chat to.

RE PK reminding you of friends who went to MIT, I similarly went to a school with a reputation for nerdiness and quirkiness, I'm sure much of the "flowery" is those characteristics carrying through life. Our shared academic and athletic interests were an integral part of our relationship.

Unfortunately, most of the victims/cases we follow here are missing as a result of foul play. In the beginning stages, we are almost always hopeful that they are not victims of foul play, that they will be found alive and that no one close to them was involved in their disappearance. That is not the world we live in, however.

A missing teenager was found alive today. She was found 800 miles from home but she is being reunited with her family who love her. That is the result we always hope for.

I appreciate your willingness to interact with us and for the insight you have provided. More than anything, I wish that Philip, too, was home tonight with his family who obviously loved and adored him.

 

[Beekarina]

Unfortunately, most of the victims/cases we follow here are missing as a result of foul play. In the beginning stages, we are almost always hopeful that they are not victims of foul play, that they will be found alive and that no one close to them was involved in their disappearance. That is not the world we live in, however.

A missing teenager was found alive today. She was found 800 miles from home but she is being reunited with her family who love her. That is the result we always hope for.

I appreciate your willingness to interact with us and for the insight you have provided. More than anything, I wish that Philip, too, was home tonight with his family who obviously loved and adored him.

This case has made me think differently about some of the long cold missing cases too. Foul play is probably the most likely eventual explanation for many of them, given their ages and the known facts, but I'm going to take a closer look at the historical weather data and other factors for a few when I have more time this weekend. We are conditioned to think of "bad guys", and examine personal lives, but not much consideration is given to the weather conditions or local surroundings.

The heat index here in my part of rural New England today is 105-ish+. Yes, it is summer, but that isn't typical. We all need to be more mindful of our changing climate and take extra care. Sadly, I think we will probably see more people overcome by extreme weather, smoke from fires, etc. I know I will consider it more carefully going forward, and not assume experience protects the missing.

 

[runspired]

So sad for him and his family and friends.

Depending on how familiar he was or wasn't with heat exhaustion/stroke, he may have thought that resting in the shade for a while would be all he needed to then be able to walk back out to the car.

His story is a lesson for sure, for me at least.

he may have, though there’s a good chance he lost consciousness since his arm registered no movement. Regardless without a water source when temps are that high and sweat loss has already occurred the shade won’t be enough. A compounding factor here was time of day: it’s hard to wait something out when it’s getting worse the longer you are in it. Temps were rising for the next 4.5 hours after he reached shade.

 

[MrsEmmaPeel]

...The heat index here in my part of rural New England today is 105-ish+. Yes, it is summer, but that isn't typical. We all need to be more mindful of our changing climate and take extra care...

@Beekarina I've been thinking this same thing over and over even though the park was known for its extreme mircro-climates. I grew up in a hot hot place. No one would ever dream of exercising outside past 8am in the morning. Now, other parts of the country are changing, and this may become the new real.

 

[LifeIsAMystery]

@Beekarina I've been thinking this same thing over and over even though the park was known for its extreme mircro-climates. I grew up in a hot hot place. No one would ever dream of exercising outside past 8am in the morning. Now, other parts of the country are changing, and this may become the new real.

It would be a good thing if this tragedy helped raise awareness.

I have had heat stroke and was so lucky to have help, air con and ice nearby. If you have experienced it personally or seen it in others it is something you don't forget - heat can kill and very quickly. And thinking is impacted faster than I ever would have guessed.

Be safe out there, all. That ice CT carries in his vest, twistable cold packs thrown in a day pack, a beacon, could all save not only yourself but someone you meet on the trail.

I hope that Philip passed quickly and did not suffer. Grateful to all who searched until he was found. May his family find peace in his memory.

 

[oviedo]

Hi folks.

I have seen and analyzed the GPS data. We may make it public, in fact I believe it eventually becomes an official part of the public record so it may not even be our choice, though it is something we intend to eventually share.

There are a number of reasons to hold off still for the family to finish their grieving and finish putting together the full picture of what occurred, but sans track I’ll still say a few things.

the watch data does not have temperature or HR data. It has cadence and GPX track only, both of which tell a pretty compelling but unfortunately incomplete story.

the worst thing I can tell you is that it ends before the end.

the most expected things I can tell you are that it (1) clarified his route to the top was roughly what we assumed (and not what was drawn), (2) that his speed to the top was exactly what we presumed and he cooked himself in the process (~18min) (he owns a lot of crowns that will be hard to take on Strava were we to take that public) (3) that the footprints on Mariposa were his though his route to there was different than expected though in line with one of our theorized re-routes for the amount of time he’d estimated he’d be out there, and (4) that the first hint of trouble was only 25min in, the first compromised decision 31min in, the first highly irrational decision was roughly 38min in, and he was incapacitated by 48min.

Heat strikes quickly.

OMG - I'm so sorry about this - and knowing these details must make it so much more difficult for everyone. Heat is deadly. Reading this has actually helped me in my decision making about outside yard work (I know it isn't the same as running at all) and how quickly heatstroke strikes so I will learn from this and be more careful. Thank you for sharing so much.
(I have followed his missing case from afar )

 

[terracotta1982]

he may have, though there’s a good chance he lost consciousness since his arm registered no movement. Regardless without a water source when temps are that high and sweat loss has already occurred the shade won’t be enough. A compounding factor here was time of day: it’s hard to wait something out when it’s getting worse the longer you are in it. Temps were rising for the next 4.5 hours after he reached shade.

Thanks runspired. Would you be willing to share the "first sign of trouble" and "highly irrational decision" points of his trail. That would help everyone who runs/planning to run this trail be more mindful of where the danger points are and may even save a life! Thank you!

 

[terracotta1982]

@Beekarina I've been thinking this same thing over and over even though the park was known for its extreme mircro-climates. I grew up in a hot hot place. No one would ever dream of exercising outside past 8am in the morning. Now, other parts of the country are changing, and this may become the new real.

Thanks MrsEmmaPeel. I was thinking maybe sites like Strava (and other sites too) only encourage hikers and runners to potentially end up in an area that isn't as "advertised" on the trail map. That's why I have asked runspired to share the actual trail Phil was on - to avoid that pitfall.

 

[ElizabethAnne]

The city of Pleasanton published the trail map attached from Moller Ranch to Pleasanton Ridge Park in April 2019. In the map, it also drew a lot of trails in the northern sector of Pleasanton Ridge that I don't think actually exist yet and did not depict them as dashed lines saying they were future trails, but presented them as "as is" trails by showing them with solid lines. The only one I recognize is the red one that is shaped like a U that dips down that is located right above the legend box. That one intersects the North Ridge trail.

It also showed a proposed dotted line through the private property (the big white shape) at the end of Blessing Dr (not labeled) into a supposed trail in the northern section of Pleasanton Ridge Park that again I don't think exists.

If I tried to use this map, I would have gotten hopelessly lost regardless of the temperature. It depicts trails in the north section of Pleasanton Ridge park that I don't think have been built yet. And just looking at it, I would have thought I could have quickly gotten back to "The Preserve" neighborhood through a quick way through private property from the northern section of Pleasanton Ridge.

I would not trust any trail map based on looking at this. I would definitely see if a trail is visible through a satellite view using a map service prior to going on a set of trails.

 

[Curious_in_NC]

The heat index here in my part of rural New England today is 105-ish+. Yes, it is summer, but that isn't typical. We all need to be more mindful of our changing climate and take extra care. Sadly, I think we will probably see more people overcome by extreme weather, smoke from fires, etc. I know I will consider it more carefully going forward, and not assume experience protects the missing.

Agree. It's been at triple digit heat index for several days in central NC too. I consider myself acclimated and in good enough shape for outdoor exercise in these conditions, but when I hit sunny stretches it still sucks the wind out of my lungs. I try to stick to shaded trail routes (and yes, I always have water and a phone).

As a more poignant example, nearly a quarter of the field in the recent men's and women's Olympics marathons dropped out, mostly due to the heat in Sapporo. They started at 6/7am, and finished in low to mid-80s degree heat. These were all elite marathoners. Many trained for heat, some even using saunas for training, and those conditions still overwhelmed many of them.

 

[ElizabethAnne]

FYI-the following appeared in The Independent, a newspaper from Livermore Preserving Memories for the Kreycik Family

Also this is from the UC Berkeley Daily Cal 'A gem of a human being': Philip Kreycik, Berkeley resident, dies at 37

 

[Beekarina]

His kids are just the cutest. That photo you shared @ElizabethAnne So sad...

 

[runspired]

Thanks runspired. Would you be willing to share the "first sign of trouble" and "highly irrational decision" points of his trail. That would help everyone who runs/planning to run this trail be more mindful of where the danger points are and may even save a life! Thank you!

once the full report is complete (should be another week or so) I’ll happily talk through its conclusions, any additional perspectives I have on top of it (for instance heat stroke will almost certainly not appear as cause of death though it’s certainly the most likely cause and there’s certainly data to support that).

I think there’s a lot of learnings here for all of us. I haven’t fully processed what all it means for me yet, not what it means for my wife: I can tell you she basically never wants me to run when it’s hot ever again after this regardless of prep, training and safety precautions. This whole event lays bare how thin the line really is between mild heat illness, which so many have experienced, and heat stroke: which is something that while survivable the odds are against you. Stats are something like 50% die in the next 28 days if they do survive initially and 70% die in the next 2 years.

but I think it also lays out some compelling ideas for safety guidance and training. I’ll certainly think differently about how to manage a heat crisis in the future, hopefully in rational enough in that case to remember these learnings.