CO- Dylan Redwine, 13, Vallecito, 19 November 2012 - #47

[Bayou Mistress]

The 115 per year are stereotypical kidnappings, not stranger abductions.

Look at table 3 on page 8 to see the number of stranger perpetrated non-family abductions. It's 37 percent of 58,200. That's 21,534 stranger abductions per year.

Directly to the right of that you'll see that 71% of the 115 (= 82) stereotypical kidnappings are perpetrated by strangers.

Stranger abductions (21,534) and stereotypical kidnappings (115) are not synonymous.

It's all in the document I keep posting which is from U.S. Department of Justice

Thank you for persisting until your point was clear.

 

[Confusion]

I find it hard to believe to believe that 21,000 children are kidnapped by strangers every year. There are nowhere near that many children posted about on WS, and every case that is entered into NCMEC, reported by any media source, or gets a mention on social media gets posted about on WS. So are we saying that there are thousands of children being abducted by strangers every year yet no mention of 95% of these cases on the Internet? Even if the child is rescued very soon after, I would think that would still make local news? Where are the articles about these cases? Do they all involve poor minority victims living in inner-cities, so they get zero attention?

I think the reason the number seems so much higher than expected is the definition of abduction. The study includes those who were just kept for an hour or less and then released along with the more obvious cases. It is somewhat misleading, at least to me. It says that 100% of non-family abductions end with the child being returned/recovered alive. It's not that all kids taken by someone other than a family member are returned alive, it's because those that are murdered end up being included in the stereotypical kidnappings instead. MOO

 

[Salem]

Taking the liberty of quoting a few definitions and other info from The Cheese's link:

"During the study year (1999), there were an estimated 115 stereotypical kidnappings, ​

defined as abductions perpetrated by a stranger or slight acquaintance and

involving a child who was transported 50 or more miles, detained overnight, held for ransom or with​

the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed."

"To satisfy both needs, NISMART–2 provides information about nonfamily abductions using two definitions.
The narrower concept of stereotypical kidnapping pertains to the more serious type of abduction perpetrated​

by a stranger or slight acquaintance in which a child is taken or detained overnight, transported a distance of
50 or more miles, held for ransom or with the intent to keep the child permanently, or killed."​

"The broader concept of nonfamily abduction includes stereotypical kidnappings
but also includes less serious nonfamily abductions involving the movement of a child using physical​

force or threat, the detention of a child for a substantial period of time (at least 1 hour) in a place of isolation​

using threat or physical force, or the luring of a child younger than 15 years old for purposes of ransom,

concealment, or intent to keep permanently. (Nonfamily abduction and related terms are defined more fully in​

the sidebar on page 2.)"

http://www.missingkids.com/en_US/documents/nismart2_nonfamily.pdf

And this answers Eileen's question above, about why we don't hear about these "abductions."

"Despite confusion about the meaning of abduction and the impression conveyed by notorious cases, an abduction
does not necessarily imply that a child is missing. For example, a child can be abducted on the way home
from school, dragged into a remote area, sexually assaulted, and released without being missed by a caretaker or
reported as missing to any law enforcement agency. Even in more serious or lengthier stereotypical kidnappings,
the victim will not qualify as a missing child if no one notices the child’s absence or if the discovery of the
child’s body is the first evidence of the episode. Thus, the current study counted the child victims of nonfamily
abductions who were not missing as well as those who were. (See Examples of NISMART–2 Nonfamily​

Abductions, page 4.)"

This is a really good paper and well worth the read.

Thanks The Cheese for posting it.

Salem

​

 

[scorekeeper]

<modsnip>

Based on the information received from family (those that have lived with Mark), news reports, actions/inactions, strange behaviors/actions from Mark and information released from LE, I still have Mark as a "person" that I still find questionable in Dylan's disappearance.

Until LE releases more information about Sunday/Monday, I think Mark knows what happened to Dylan (either directly or indirectly).

I am always open to new evidence. I don't think anyone here thinks they have solved Dylan's disappearance but some find Mark "very questionable".....

Anyway, JMO/IMHO,........

 

[menmo]

Here's the Walmart photo.

I can't tell Dylan's mood from this photo either.

http://www.kob.com/article/stories/s2855532.shtml

I also can't tell Dylan's mood from the photo. He doesn't look happy to me, but I don't know him, his moods, his looks so I can't judge it based on that.
The sad emoticon that he sent to his mom, though, I'd say he wasn't happy about being made by the courts to go and that makes me sad.
Kids are not property and shouldn't be made to go to the other parents home if they don't want to. Sometimes there is a very good reason they feel the way they do and that should be respected.

MOO

 

[Salem]

This post lands at random.

Talk about the case, not each other.

Talk about the case, not each other.


Salem

 

[scorekeeper]

Sorry, Salem....

:facepalm:

 

[SCHMAE]

NO ONE is happy in WALMART ! I don't read anything into his expression or lack thereof. He's in walmart....period. mooo

 

[RANCH]

I can't tell either, but I can tell you, his shirt doesn't look like a Nike shirt. Isn't that what the official NCMEC poster says he was wearing?

I can't tell what the shirt says that Dylan's wearing in the airport and Walmart photos but it's not the same Nike shirt that's in the NCMEC poster.

There sure are a lot of Nike shirts available but I haven't found an exact match yet.

http://kwgn.com/2012/11/25/divers-k-9-units-continue-search-for-13-year-old-dylan-redwine/

http://www.missingkids.com/missingk...NCMC&seqNum=1&caseLang=en_US&searchLang=en_US

 

[mijamawi]

NO ONE is happy in WALMART ! I don't read anything into his expression or lack thereof. He's in walmart....period. mooo

So true. It takes me an hour to psych myself up for a trip to the Walmarts. Gotta go today and am procrastinating....


O/T kinda, but have you (general you) ever paused your TV randomly and seen some of the expressions? Sharon Osborn is one of my favorites to do that with. Her expressions are hilarious on pause.

 

[NC Analyzer]

Talk about the case, not each other, LOL...ok, Salem!!

In my opinion, Dylan was NOT abducted by some random stranger.
Dylan did NOT run away.
Dylan did NOT go fishing and fall into the lake.
Dylan did NOT attempt to hitchhike 6 miles or 20 miles.
Dylan would have used his phone to "communicate" with someone Sun. night past 9:37 or at the latest, Monday morning after R's texts.
Dylan would have used the land line phone if his cell wasn't working.
Dylan would have used his ipod if his cell wasn't working.
LE knows what happened to Dylan and they are building a case.
LE knows that Dylan wasn't abducted by a stranger or a casual acquaintance.
LE knows that Dylan isn't hidden.
MR knows what happened to Dylan.
MR thinks he's getting away with this crime because he hasn't been arrested.
MR doesn't give a rat's patuttie about Dylan.
MR takes great pleasure in Elaine's pain.
MR is the number one unnamed suspect/POI in LE's radar.
Again, just my opinion and I'm entitled to it.

 

[RANCH]

I also can't tell Dylan's mood from the photo. He doesn't look happy to me, but I don't know him, his moods, his looks so I can't judge it based on that.
The sad emoticon that he sent to his mom, though, I'd say he wasn't happy about being made by the courts to go and that makes me sad.
Kids are not property and shouldn't be made to go to the other parents home if they don't want to. Sometimes there is a very good reason they feel the way they do and that should be respected.

MOO

BBM

That emoticon could be an expression of how Dylan physically felt after the flight. Didn't he say something about being dizzy in the text to Elaine after the flight? Maybe he had an earache that cause him some discomfort thus the emoticon. MOO.

 

[raine1212]

Here it is.

I can't tell what Dylan's mood is from viewing this photo. MOO.
Sorry,that's the airport photo. Let me see if I can find the Walmart one.

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...ast-seen-night-before-he-was-reported-missing

I have tried to blow this picture up to see if anything is on the front of his shirt with no luck. Can someone here give it a try I am going blind trying. Thanks in Advance

 

[scorekeeper]

NO ONE is happy in WALMART ! I don't read anything into his expression or lack thereof. He's in walmart....period. mooo

:floorlaugh::floorlaugh::floorlaugh::floorlaugh:

I was there yesterday and I didn't see one happy camper (shopper).

Would love to see Mark in the Walmart video, perhaps he is the exception and is happy....:floorlaugh:

 

[scorekeeper]

Based on surveillance video of the teen arriving at the airport the day before he disappeared and a visit he made the same day to a Durango Walmart, investigators determined that Dylan was wearing the following clothing:
&#8226; A blue baseball cap with a white front panel with the words "Duke Blue Devils" in blue on the white panel.
&#8226; A black, short-sleeved T-shirt with the large letters "DC" on the front within a thin light-colored square border around the DC logo.
&#8226; A pair of black basketball shorts that went below the knee with light-colored (possibly light blue and white) stripes on the sides.
&#8226; Black-colored "Jordan" shoes with a white tongue and white shoelace area

http://www.thedenverchannel.com/new...hick-folder-full-of-tips-on-missing-boys-case

I can't find the article when LE changed what Dylan was wearing when he disappeared (from the Nike to the DC shirt) but this article talks about his clothing. I know I previously posted when LE updated what he was wearing....

 

[eileenhawkeye]

BBM

Sadly, I believe this is probably the case. JMO.

I believe that most kids who are killed in the inner city are killed by a gun, most likely in a drive-by. I doubt there are thousands of inner city children who are being abducted by some sexual predator and then killed, such as Samantha Runnion, or are being abducted, and then kept for long periods of time, like Jaycee Dugard. Not to mention, you can find plenty of information online about drive-by shootings in inner cities, yet nothing about the apparently thousands of inner city children abducted by strangers every year?

 

[nikb]

NO ONE is happy in WALMART ! I don't read anything into his expression or lack thereof. He's in walmart....period. mooo

Agree, pretty sure I had a similar look on my face when I've been in Walmart .. maybe upset I needed to go there at all? My thinking is always get in, get whatever I despararely need, get out. I'm sure I don't look all happy and excited about it.

 

[nikb]

I have tried to blow this picture up to see if anything is on the front of his shirt with no luck. Can someone here give it a try I am going blind trying. Thanks in Advance

Great question IMO. I see something light colored on his shirt but it's way blurry, looks like intentionally blurry to me. Thanks for posting this question as I hadn't noticed that before, I kept thinking it was just a dark colored shirt. I'm apparently going blind as well. But I'm glad you posted it.

 

[KateNY]

Are the airport and walmart pics the same shirt??

 

[Bayou Mistress]

In my opinion, Dylan may have been abducted by a stranger or by someone who knows him well or peripherally.

Dylan may have run away, although I doubt it.

Dylan may have gone fishing and may have fallen in the lake or elsewhere.

Dylan may or may not have used his phone or a landline or his ipod.

I have little idea what LE is thinking and doubt that anyone who isn't them could hazard any better guess than I can.

MR was never charged with kidnapping or parental interference.

MR alleges he was beaten by a family member and documented it. Also alleged was that MR took a swing at a family member (it's appeared that swing did not connect with flesh).

MR has no verified interaction with any court surrounding alcohol or drugs.

MR has never killed anyone before.

MR has inconsistencies in media accounts of November 18th. Telling the same story with the same words over and over again would actually be a more telling example of someone manufacturing a story than minor inconsistencies and the omission or inclusion of details.