Hi Sean,
oh my, that doesn't look good, but there is not enough yet to go on. I should really put some time in it, but there are so many cases. So lets just go through the points in the order they come to me:
Okay, Pat Brown: Aside of her TV presence, I had three cases I looked into, that was Flint, Baseline and that Alabama diver. She had a two out of three in that, so that doesn't look too bad. Kelly had a one out of three on them, just for comparison. However, Brown has a lot of trustworthy connections, so I take the word for it, the cross was found nearby and they found only the torso.
Now, the cross. Leaving a cross nearby normally indicates a basically Christian raised perpetrator and counts as sign of remorse. However, three etches in it, like notches, that is something different. More like notches in a colt. So, three kills, including Jessica Ridgway? And a connection to some twisted form of Christianity maybe? Significant is, the perpetrator just didn't lose that cross. He left it there intentionally. So it is a message or a red herring. Since he is high organized and already deployed one decoy, my guess is red herring.
Why do they dismiss the other pervs? There are a lot of reasons. Not organized enough, different MO, different victimology. However, it can always happen, this backfires. I just did, for scholarly reasons, a profile on the Moor Murders in England and that was for example a victimology of female and male victims mixed. So, I guess, they make a rough check on them, but they will come back when they run out of hotter leads.
The 22 year old who escaped an abduction. Cloth with chloroform or ether would do the trick. But then, it would do the trick so well, the victim has almost no chance, unless it would be a 6ft girl with a combat weight of 250lbs plus who just rolled over him. I doubt that. So ... whoever did that, messed up. And our guy doesn't mess up. He plans the work, then he works the plan. En detail. Aside of that, Jessica Ridgway is pre-nubile age bracket while a 22 year old is definitive adult age bracket. And since most guys who go for pre-nubile victims are preferential offenders, I don't see a connection via the victimology. However, that would be a different story, if this wasn't entirely sexual motivated. Delusional cases may have wider victimologies, and so has the religious/occult range sometimes.
Dismembering victims happens a lot. Mostly as forensic counter measure, to delay identification or as prerequisite to destroy the body. Sometimes also to easy body transport. I don't see anything in the articles, that points to staging. Do you have more about the environment, the surroundings, the details of the find? I admit, I didn't dig yet. Without staging, I doubt, it would be a torso-killer of the Manorville type. There is the shocker, the statement missing, as of yet, but maybe the police is just holding back on the gruesome details.
So, what's to do:
1.) This is no first-timer. So where are girls 9-12 missing, blonde, maybe with glasses. Somewhere in the US, not necessarily Colorado. Or where would we find rape cases, ab. 5 years plus back, with a similar victimology?
2.) In the case of the 22 year old, they should look for someone who was with her at the same college and/or high school. The usual quiet guy, she had not much to do with. Or a neighbor from back then. Someone who knew her, but had time to change his appearance. Just to make sure.
3.) Police needs to canvas the gas stations around the abduction site (or area in this case). Somewhere around is a gas station, where someone with a very normal sedan type car has filled up in the hour before the abduction. He has most likely plates from out of state. He has, aside of a probably moderate amount of gas, bought one or two bottles of soda, likely coke, and/or an energy drink, some cookies or candy and maybe cigarettes. If so, my bet is Marlboro. He has paid cash. Chances are, he was also in the hours or the evening before at an ATM in the area. But all starts with the gas stations.
4.) Another way would be looking for trailers of traveling craftsmen around. Roofers and so on, we had that in the last pms. I doubt in the meantime, he lives in a pension, he has some place with privacy. One can't go and cur a body to pieces out in the public, people would be annoyed.
5.) There is a slim chance, I am wrong and the cross is more than a red herring. Then he would have searched a church the day before the abduction. I am not sure, how to check that though.
So those are my new thoughts, what I said earlier stays valid. Does WS have anybody in the area?
