Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Emergency #4

[Amonet]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'

Up to 4,500 patients in China may have caught the same strain of coronavirus that has killed two people, scientists fear.

Health officials in Wuhan – the city at the heart of the outbreak which started in December – confirmed four new cases today, taking the total to 48.

But Imperial College London researchers say this may be the 'tip of the iceberg' after analysing flights out of the city.

Experts say the fact three Chinese tourists have tested positive for the virus outside Wuhan indicates the disease toll may be higher than reported.

Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

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[gregjrichards]

WHO team arrives in China as Wuhan coronavirus deaths top SARS

The number of deaths from the Wuhan coronavirus had risen to over 1,000 by Tuesday morning, as experts from the World Health Organization (WHO) arrived in China to assist with controlling the epidemic.

Wuhan coronavirus: WHO team arrives in China as global deaths top SARS - CNN

@Trino He is wrong no way will this virus be gone by the spring.

 

[Henry2326]

This is not a political statement. Trump has said the virus will be gone by spring. Just think this is understating the problem. The virus appears to be multiplying. Today another case in San Diego, first flight back.

He said this.....
____________________________
In a string of tweets Friday morning, Trump described Xi as "strong, sharp and powerfully focused on leading the counterattack" against the virus and predicted the outcome would be "very successful."

"He feels they are doing very well, even building hospitals in a matter of only days. Nothing is easy, but ... he will be successful, especially as the weather starts to warm & the virus hopefully becomes weaker, and then gone," Trump tweeted. "Great discipline is taking place in China, as President Xi strongly leads what will be a very successful operation. We are working closely with China to help!"

In the U.S., Trump has formed a coronavirus task force to address the response to the deadly outbreak. The president was scheduled to meet with the group of top health officials at the White House earlier Thursday, but it was closed to the press.

Trump discusses coronavirus with China's Xi

 

[dotr]

Wuhan coronavirus: WHO team arrives in China as global deaths top SARS - CNN
''In the early hours of Tuesday, health officials began a partial evacuation of residents from an apartment block in Tsing Yi, in northwestern Hong Kong, over fears the virus may have been transmitted via the building's pipes.
Two residents living on different floors of a high-rise tower called Hong Mei House had been infected with coronavirus, health officials said. Parts of the building have now been evacuated as health officials and engineers carried out emergency checks.
Microbiologist KY Yuen said that an improperly sealed pipe could have resulted in the virus, by carrying feces into the building's ventilation system and blowing it into people's apartments.
"As the pipeline that transfers feces is connected to the air pipe, it is very likely for the virus in the feces to be transmitted through the air fan into the toilet," Yuen said. He added that the transmission route is not clear yet, so the evacuation was a precaution.
At least 12 cases have been confirmed at Hong Mei House. During the SARS outbreak, pipelines were a major source of transmission. At the Amoy Gardens housing estate, there were more than 300 infections and 42 deaths, after a flaw in the plumbing design allowed SARS to spread throughout the building.''

 

[mickey2942]

CNBC reports
In China
death toll at 1 016
Infected at 42 638

So, what do you think that the "real" numbers are? This doesn't seem correct to me, based on the information provided by crematorium workers.

Billionaire Whistleblower: Wuhan Coronavirus Death Toll Is Over 50,000

 

[Henry2326]

Wuhan coronavirus: WHO team arrives in China as global deaths top SARS - CNN
''In the early hours of Tuesday, health officials began a partial evacuation of residents from an apartment block in Tsing Yi, in northwestern Hong Kong, over fears the virus may have been transmitted via the building's pipes.
Two residents living on different floors of a high-rise tower called Hong Mei House had been infected with coronavirus, health officials said. Parts of the building have now been evacuated as health officials and engineers carried out emergency checks.
Microbiologist KY Yuen said that an improperly sealed pipe could have resulted in the virus, by carrying feces into the building's ventilation system and blowing it into people's apartments.
"As the pipeline that transfers feces is connected to the air pipe, it is very likely for the virus in the feces to be transmitted through the air fan into the toilet," Yuen said. He added that the transmission route is not clear yet, so the evacuation was a precaution.
At least 12 cases have been confirmed at Hong Mei House. During the SARS outbreak, pipelines were a major source of transmission. At the Amoy Gardens housing estate, there were more than 300 infections and 42 deaths, after a flaw in the plumbing design allowed SARS to spread throughout the building.''

That's bad news if its tranmitting that way....

 

[Henry2326]

You don't get sacked over 1000 deaths......
_____________________________

Two senior Hubei Province officials sacked
Chinese state media is reporting that party secretary of Health Commission of Hubei Province, Zhang Jin, and the director of the Hubei Provincial Health Commission, Liu Yingzi, have been fired.

Coronavirus live updates: two senior Hubei officials sacked as deaths pass 1,000 – latest news

 

[dotr]

• Updated 12:08 a.m. ET, February 11, 2020
  
• Coronavirus live updates: Death toll surpasses 1,000 in mainland China - CNN
  
• ''The virus: 2,478 new coronavirus cases were identified in mainland China on Monday, bringing the total number of infections there to 42,638. Worldwide, 43,090 people were infected as of Tuesday morning.
• The death toll and the cured: 108 people died from the virus in mainland China Monday, bringing the total death toll there to 1,016, China's National Health Commission said. Two people have died outside mainland China, in Hong Kong and the Philippines. Nearly 4,000 infected patients in mainland China have been cured and discharged from hospital, officials said.''

 

[Henry2326]

More like 30,000 deaths based on this reporting...,....
____________________________

The Epoch Times, a Chinese-American anti-communist newspaper, sent journalists to speak with the heads of several funeral homes and crematoriums in Hubei province – whose capital, Wuhan, is the epicenter of the current novel coronavirus outbreak. The newspaper found that adding up the total number of people cremated per day in several funeral homes yielded a significantly larger number than the official number of deaths tallied since the outbreak began in December.

According to the Epoch Times, the crematoria were handling “4-5 times the usual cremation volume” per day. Few of those cremated were officially confirmed as coronavirus cases.

“I received 127 corpses yesterday [February 3], and burned 116. Among them, 8 were confirmed [coronavirus cases] on the death certificate and 48 were suspected,” a funeral home director in Hubei using the pseudonym “You Hu” told the newspaper. “I am about to collapse, we are under great pressure now.”

The newspaper offered insight into a larger funeral home in Hankou, a Wuhan neighborhood, which it estimated had the capacity to burn 576 people per day. “You Hu” told the Epoch Times that the backlog of people waiting to be cremated was not due to lack of space in the burners, but lack of sufficient transportation and collapsing staff numbers, as few were sleeping or taking breaks. Due to transportation and staff limits, the Epoch Times estimated that the Hankou crematorium was burning 225 corpses a day.

With this math, the newspaper concludes that Hubei province incinerated 341 bodies on February 3; China reported 65 deaths nationwide due to coronavirus that day.

The article went on to state that Hubei province has eight municipal funeral homes. Similarly judging from their capacity for bodies and the amount of time the furnaces are running, the article adds another 135 patients a day to the tally from five of these. The other three, it concludes, burned 476 people a day. While less confident in these numbers since the journalists were unable to speak to their managers, these numbers reveal a rough estimate of nearly 1,000 people incinerated per day.

Of course, the article notes that there is no guarantee that all these people died after becoming infected with the novel coronavirus. It notes that, of the 127 remains “You Hu” received on February 3 (116 were cremated that day), eight were confirmed coronavirus patients and 48 were suspected carriers. The newspaper also identified another funeral home that took in 22 sets of remains and three were confirmed coronavirus cases.

Report: Two Wuhan Funeral Homes Cremating 300+ Bodies a Day

 

[margarita25]

https://www.washingtonpost.com/worl...155ffc-4762-11ea-91ab-ce439aa5c7c1_story.html

As dozens of airlines around the world forgo massive profits and suspend flights to China amid fears of spreading the new coronavirus, Africa's biggest airline continues to transport thousands from China every day.

Ethiopian Airlines has become the loudest proponent of sticking by China and keeping trade links open. Six other African airlines, including Kenya Airways and South African Airways, have suspended their flights.

That's not very intelligent imo. Pretty darn dangerous for it's citizens. Will be interesting to see if it starts to spread there over the next few weeks.

I wonder what Dr. Tedros would say about this. Maybe he will (have to) address it at some point, perhaps via a reporter’s question. He’s been talking about the dangers of spread to nations which may lack healthcare infrastructure.

ETA: So speaking of Dr T, when can we expect to hear from him and his fine team again? Tomorrow morning? A lot has happened. Is it enough to be considered “sustained person to person transmission” in order to declare a pandemic? We will see this week.

ETa2: And when can we expect the next White House Briefing from Secretary Azar and team? What does Dr. Fauci think about this situation so far globally I wonder. I know he has emphasized that this is highly infectious. I wonder what all the professionals think about the level of spread so far.

 

[beatrixpotter]

There are options in between!

Amazon.com: female urination device

I was just thinking about this this last week. How can I make the long trek to my doctor and not pee? How can I pee in the car and avoid public restrooms? And I recalled those upright peeing for women things. lol

 

[margarita25]

I read that if she is brought back to Canada, that both child and mother will be quarantined for 14 days.

Out of curiosity, what is the max incubation period for SARS and MERS? 14 days also? We know that CV is 80% genetically similar to both of these other respiratory syndromes.

Here's a report that relates to an "aerosol plume of virus-laden diarrhea" caused by flushing a toilet.

"Faeces particles can spread to a toothbrush through the air after flushing. Bacteria in the faeces particles can lead to illnesses such as diarrhoea"

"Fecal coliforms are rod-shaped bacteria found in human faeces and can spread onto a toothbrush through the air through actions such as flushing the toilet."

"'Better hygiene practices are recommended for students who share bathrooms both in the storage of their toothbrush but also in personal hygiene,' said Aber."

Faeces is common on toothbrushes in shared bathrooms | Daily Mail Online

(@Hatfield, since you mentioned flushing the toilet earlier)

 

[beatrixpotter]

I just caught up on the 10 pages I'd not read today in this thread. This is causing me so much anxiety. I left the coronavirus update groups on social media because they are just so hysterical. This thread is the best for reasoned discussion and good articles. But it's clear things are getting worse. I am a worst case scenario kind of person.

I'm struggling with limited budget to stock up on food and supplies. I am not waiting till the last minute to buy things. No way am I watching the Pandemic series on Netflix. I assume that will just make my anxiety way worse. This is a nightmare. I'm just assuming it's drastically under diagnosed. And wtf is China doing not counting those who test positive but don't have symptoms?? But they'll toss you in an internment camp just for exposure? But no biggie if you test positive? This makes no sense.

I hope Trump is right. I feel like I'm on edge just holding out for hope that spring arrives and we aren't all left in some horrible situation like in Wuhan ourselves. I thought containment was our best hope and now they are saying it's basically impossible? It was nice knowing you all! lol

 

[gregjrichards]

I just caught up on the 10 pages I'd not read today in this thread. This is causing me so much anxiety. I left the coronavirus update groups on social media because they are just so hysterical. This thread is the best for reasoned discussion and good articles. But it's clear things are getting worse. I am a worst case scenario kind of person.

I'm struggling with limited budget to stock up on food and supplies. I am not waiting till the last minute to buy things. No way am I watching the Pandemic series on Netflix. I assume that will just make my anxiety way worse. This is a nightmare. I'm just assuming it's drastically under diagnosed. And wtf is China doing not counting those who test positive but don't have symptoms?? But they'll toss you in an internment camp just for exposure? But no biggie if you test positive? This makes no sense.

I hope Trump is right. I feel like I'm on edge just holding out for hope that spring arrives and we aren't all left in some horrible situation like in Wuhan ourselves. I thought containment was our best hope and now they are saying it's basically impossible? It was nice knowing you all! lol

I know it’s a worrying situation but try not to panic unless your living in Wuhan or China it is highly unlikely you will contract this virus.

 

[margarita25]

... yup. Masking the truth. Not surprised since this is just normal SOP.


No escape: The fearful life of China's exiled dissidents

Barging into your home, threatening your family, or making you disappear: Here's what China does to people who speak out against them


* edit - quoting error

This is scary and makes me wonder if Chen Q. will ever be seen again.

“1. Make you disappear.

Li Wenzu holds a photo of her husband, detained human rights lawyer Wang Quanzhang, while protesting in front of the Supreme People's Protectorate in Beijing in July 2017.
Damir Sagolj/Reuters

Wang Quanzhang, a human rights lawyer who defended political activists in the past, has not been seen since he was taken into detention three years ago.

He was taken away in August 2015 alongside more than 200 lawyers, legal assistants, and activists for government questioning. Three years later, he remains the only person in that cohort who still isn't free.

Nobody has heard from him since. His lawyers, friends, and family have all tried contacting him, but have consistently been denied access, Radio Free Asia reported.

The lawyer's friends and family, and other lawyers, have tried visiting him, but to no avail. His wife, Li Wenzu, has been routinely harassed by Chinese police for protesting Wang's detention, according to the BBC.

His wife recently received a messagefrom a friend saying that Wang was alive and "in reasonable mental and physical health," but was denied further information when she contacted authorities.”

There are a lot more eyes out now, the whole world is watching.

 

[gregjrichards]

Leave the masks at home: Aussies told there is no threat of deadly coronavirus in Australia as 15 people with the disease are in 'good condition'

Australians told not to wear face masks amid coronavirus outbreak | Daily Mail Online

 

[margarita25]

And this is what I just saw on the local news. This just got real.

Patient in Bozeman under evaluation for possible coronavirus

A snippet from the above link:

““This is not unexpected,” said Matt Kelley, Health Officer with Gallatin City-County Health Department. “We have many people from our community traveling the world, and we have been preparing for this situation.”

“Just because someone is not feeling well does not mean they have novel coronavirus,” Kelley said. “But we are using an abundance of caution so that risk to others is minimized. Now is the time for vigilance and caution, but the public should know that the risk to others in Montana is very low.”

In Montana, local and state public health officials have worked with 10 to 15 individuals who have travel history in China during the current outbreak but do not have any current symptoms of concern. Five of those individuals have been in Gallatin County, and are cooperating with Gallatin City-County Health Department and DPHHS to monitor their well-being and minimize potential exposures.”

 

[RobinCAL]

*Not about coronavirus*

Saga cruise ship with 89 passengers suffering from diarrhoea, vomiting and fever is due to dock in Southampton - days after it was turned away from Gibraltar

Saga cruise ship due in Southampton - days after it was turned away from Gibraltar due to norovirus | Daily Mail Online

Between this and the coronavirus on the Diamond Princess ship I’m totally put off going on a cruise now.

I can't remember where I read this but apparently diarrhea is another way it's passing from human to human. I do think it was speculated rather than proven but this does make my slightly nervous

 

[MJPeony]

CDC mistakenly removes San Diego’s first positive coronavirus case from hospital

“Infected patient was cleared by CDC, then returned to UC San Diego Health.
SAN DIEGO —

A botched test result allowed an evacuee infected with the coronavirus to leave a San Diego hospital Monday after initially being told by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention that the person was in the clear.

....

It was not immediately clear what route the infected evacuee took out of the university hospital nor which of UC San Diego’s two main medical centers was involved. It also was not clear how long the infected evacuee was circulating inside quarantine after being told they tested negative. CDC, university and county health officials were not immediately available to comment.”

Unbelievable!!

 

[MJPeony]

And from CNN:

First US evacuee infected with coronavirus was mistakenly released from hospital - CNN


If the “first test” showed the individual was negative for CV, and it took a further test to show it was positive, what does this mean for everyone else getting tested?? False negatives?