Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #9

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Interesting theory about how new cases are popping up with no connection to travel or other infected people.

Airplane arrives from infected area with one infected person. The infected person gets off the plane and someone else sits in that same seat. That person picks up the virus from the seat on the plane, touches face, gets the virus.
 
Lilibet said:
The silly “tips” emails are starting. An elderly friend forwarded this to me this morning. I googled and found nothing except a Greek news source discussing it as a rumor. Needless to say, I let her know this and cautioned her about spreading unverified information.

Unsourced email tips:

The new NCP coronavirus may not show sign of infection for many days, how can one know if he/she is infected. By the time they have fever and/or cough and goes to the hospital, the lungs is usually 50 % Fibrosis and it's too late!

Taiwan experts provide a simple self-check that we can do every morning:

Take a deep breath and hold your breath for more than 10 seconds. If you complete it successfully without coughing, without discomfort, stuffiness or tightness, etc.,it proves there is no fibrosis in the lungs, basically indicating no infection.

In critical times, please self-check every morning in an environment with clean air.

SERIOUS EXCELLENT ADVICE by Japanese Doctors treating COVID-19 cases:
Everyone should ensure your mouth & throat is moist, never DRY. Take a few sips of water every 15 mins at least. WHY? Even if the virus gets into your mouth...drinking water or other liquids will WASH them down through your oesophagus into the stomach. Once there in tummy...your stomach ACID will kill all the virus. If you don't drink enough water more regularly...the virus can enter your windpipes and into the LUNGS. That's very dangerous.

You may want to send and share with family, friends and everyone.
Click to expand...
Will drinking coffee work as well as water ?.........moo
 
@Oregonmama , I just wanted you to know I clicked on your profile last night to see what was going on when I saw some folks addressing you in their posts re: talks of testing, etc. and I was trying to catch up. Your profile settings unfortunately blocked me from viewing your content. Just wanted you to know I was trying to speed catch up on your situation.
 
Amonet said:
These threads are moving way too fast for me to keep up with now!

This post from the previous thread, by dixiegirl:


Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

The bottom graph says inthe 2017/2018 flu season there were 100 hospitalisations (approx)for flu in the US for every 100,000 of the population, and that was a really bad year for total numbers of hospitalisations.

I think it was said that about 0.01% to 0.1% get flu each year for the US?

Sp 330 million divided by 100,000 is 3300, and that multiplied by 100 is 330,000 hospitalisations, peaking between December and April? ish. That sounds like quite a lot.

Let's say Covid-19 went totally wild in the USA (which hopefully it won't!) and 50% were infected between now and next April (we assume no vaccine until then).

165 million infected. Approx 20% hospitalisations would be 33 million. And 5% needing ICU would be just over 8 million.

So the potential worst-case scenario would be pretty bad. I think it's safe to say those figures would totally overwhelm the healthcare system, just by comparing them to the figures for flu and assuming the situation for nurses/doctors/beds/ICU etc in peak flu seasons aren't much different from the UK, ie. very very tight.

If we also assume that the virus will taper off in the summer months, I don't see the worst case scenario figures coming in the first 2/3rds of this year in the USA.

I need further thinking on what more realistic scenarios could be, with the assumption of the wave pattern dipping in the warmer months of the year. And if that pattern doesn't actually happen....then obviously it could be a lot worse, and maybe in that situation it would become more feasible for the worst-case type figures to become reality. Not necessarily quite that high, but enough to overwhelm healthcare facilities.

So, what would it take to overwhelm the hospitals if there are approx 330,000 hospitalisations in a bad year for flu? Twice that number? So I think that would take about 2.5 million infections in the USA would be really stretching the healthcare system, and that would be 1 in 132 people infected, approximately. And that is nothing near what the virologists are saying for the 60 in 100 people that could potentially be infected in a massive epidemic of a virus 'like' this that is fairly easy to catch/spread, could be spread when incubating/asymptomatic, no immunity in the population, and no vaccine.

So the 60% sounds really unlikely, yet the number is based on past epidemics...I wonder what kind of epidemics, with what kind of R0, and in what kind of societal and environmental conditions it can reach 60%? That is something to ponder.

I think it also illustrates pretty well why governments are taking this so seriously and even implementing lockdowns on cities and regions, and yet at the same time not wanting to go too overboard due to the adverse effects of longterm lockdowns and spiralling negative economic effects.
Click to expand...

Great post - lots of well thought out points!

Just want to add a couple of very “condensed points”

1) The economy.... I wrote a fairly lengthy post at the very tail end of thread #7 that’s a bit of a precursor to this one, but want to add that losing sight of the economy could end up being rather tragic in and of itself. Let’s assume, for the sake of conversation, that the virus dies out on its own, or a vaccine is made available within 18 months....
This whole thing could potentially be behind us all well within two years. However, we could potentially be dealing with a full blown recession/depression for years as part of the aftermath. The results of which could ultimately produce a much worse outcome than that of the virus itself. So to me, the financial markets should be of great concern.

2) Bring prepared - the post I “lost” was in regards to this topic, so due to time constraints at the moment, this is the condensed version....

ASSUMING the data we’ve received this far is anywhere near accurate (within 100 times accuracy & based on regional population totals along with other varying factors) IMO, preparation right now should be about getting through the initial heavy wave. 2 to 4 weeks will probably be sufficient for most. Primary goal should be the attempt to lessen the burden on the healthcare system and the medical personnel during the initial onslaught of the outbreak. Once the virus peaks, and the medical community adjusts to the new “norm”, then it’s a logical assumption that death rates will decline.

More to add,

But I have more tequila and a “honey-do list” that needs attending to at the moment!
 
gregjrichards said:
View attachment 235308

Coronavirus: Crew pepper spray frustrated cruise ship passengers as brawl erupts

Passengers onboard the MSC Meraviglia cheered as security officers used pepper spray to stop a fight which broke out after the ship was denied permission to dock in Jamaica and the Cayman Islands over coronavirus fears

Cruise crew pepper spray brawling passengers 'locked in ship' over coronavirus
Click to expand...

Oh thanks, I’m realizing I also forgot to watch that other video way upstream about that (if it’s the same cruise ship), noting. I’d really like to see it, especially after spending a night on YT watching videos about “Cruises gone wrong”...

I got on a rant about facing the consequences of taking the risk to cruise then forgot to watch the video, making note thanks.
 
Slightly OT. I'm most worried about my 84 year old mom who is quite frail. We aren't taking her anywhere for a while. We shopped for her yesterday and got enough for 2 weeks although I worried I should get more. I encouraged her to go out for fresh air on her scooter but not to stop anywhere. We live very close so we do her yard work, trash pick up, light housework, etc. We're doing all we can to keep her safe and healthy. Now I wish this flu would go away!
 
margarita25 said:
Coronavirus (COVID-19) Update: FDA Issues New Policy to Help Expedite Availability of Diagnostics

(Not BBM’d by me, was already bolded)

For Immediate Release:
February 29, 2020
Today, as part of the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s ongoing and aggressive commitment to address the coronavirus outbreak, the agency issued a new policy for certain laboratories seeking to develop diagnostic tests for coronavirus in order to achieve more rapid testing capacity in the U.S.

“We believe this policy strikes the right balance during this public health emergency,” said FDA Commissioner Stephen M. Hahn, M.D. “We will continue to help to ensure sound science prior to clinical testing and follow-up with the critical independent review from the FDA, while quickly expanding testing capabilities in the U.S. We are not changing our standards for issuing Emergency Use Authorizations. This action today reflects our public health commitment to addressing critical public health needs and rapidly responding and adapting to this dynamic and evolving situation.”

There is currently an outbreak of respiratory disease caused by a novel coronavirus that was first detected in Wuhan City, Hubei Province, China and which has now been detected in 50 locations internationally, including cases in the United States. The virus has been named “SARS-CoV2” and the disease it causes has been named “Coronavirus Disease 2019” (COVID-19). SARS-CoV-2 has demonstrated the capability to rapidly spread, leading to significant impact on health care systems and causing societal disruption. The potential public health threat posed by COVID-19 is high, both globally and to the U.S. To effectively respond to the COVID-19 outbreak, rapid detection of cases and contacts, appropriate clinical management and infection control, and implementation of community mitigation efforts are critical. This can best be achieved with wide availability of testing capabilities in health care settings, reference and commercial laboratories, and at the point of care.

The new policy is for certain laboratories that develop and begin to use validated COVID-19 diagnostics before the FDA has completed review of their Emergency Use Authorization(EUA) requests. The FDA can issue an EUA to permit the use, based on scientific data, of certain medical products that may be effective in diagnosing, treating or preventing a disease or condition when there is a determination, by the Secretary of Health and Human Services (HHS), that there is a public health emergency or a significant potential for a public health emergency that has a significant potential to affect national security or the health and security of U.S. citizens, and a declaration that circumstances exist justifying the medical products’ emergency use.

On Feb. 4, 2020, the Secretary of HHS determined that there is a public health emergency and that circumstances exist justifying the authorization of emergency use of in vitro diagnostics for detection and/or diagnosis of the COVID-19 outbreak. Rapid detection of COVID-19 cases in the U.S. requires wide availability of diagnostic testing to control the emergence of a rapidly spreading, severe illness. The FDA has authorized one EUA for COVID-19 that is in use by the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) and some public health labs across the country.

The guidance issued today describes a policy enabling laboratories to immediately use tests they developed and validated in order to achieve more rapid testing capacity in the U.S.

“The global emergence of COVID-19 is concerning, and we appreciate the efforts of the FDA to help bring more testing capability to the U.S.,” said Nancy Messonnier, M.D., director of the CDC’s Center for the National Center for Immunization and Respiratory Diseases (NCIRD).

The immediately in effect guidance issued today describes the circumstances where the FDA does not intend to object to the use of these tests for clinical testing while the laboratories are pursuing an EUA with the FDA. Importantly, this policy only applies to laboratories that are certified to perform high-complexity testing consistent with requirements under Clinical Laboratory Improvement Amendments.

“We applaud the FDA’s approach to speed the path toward emergency use authorization for COVID-19 diagnostics. This step may reduce development costs, speed the process for availability at more testing sites, incentivize private development and, ultimately, help save lives,” said Rick Bright, Ph.D., director of the Biomedical Advanced Research and Development Authority (BARDA), part of the HHS Office of the Assistant Secretary for Preparedness and Response. “At BARDA, we are identifying industry partners to develop rapid diagnostics that can be used in commercial and hospital labs or even doctors’ offices so that medical professionals and their patients have the information they need to take action.”

The FDA guidance provides recommendations for test developers, including information regarding test validation, FDA notification and interim confirmatory clinical testing.

Following the completion of their test validation, laboratories should communicate with the FDA, via email, in order to notify the agency that the test has been validated. Laboratories should submit a completed EUA request within 15 business days of notification.

“Under this policy, we expect certain laboratories who develop validated tests for coronavirus would begin using them right away prior to FDA review,” said Jeff Shuren, M.D., J.D., director of the FDA’s Center for Devices and Radiological Health. “We believe this action will support laboratories across the country working on this urgent public health situation. We are dedicating all available resources to expediting the review of medical products, including diagnostics, to prevent the spread of this outbreak.”
Click to expand...

Ok, so there's already a problem with the current US batch of COVID-19 diagnostic tests being faulty.

US coronavirus tests are faulty and 'cannot be relied upon', New York says

This directive from FDA is allowing more private laboratories to make and distribute these diagnostic tests even more quickly with less federal review? Not sure how this is helping.
 
margarita25 said:
“The student fell ill on Monday and was seen at two different clinics during the week. The student felt better on Friday morning and went back to school, only to learn of their test result and go straight home before the start of class.”

2 new coronavirus cases found in Seattle area, health officials say
FEB 28, 2020 at 8:25 PM
Click to expand...
Irresponsible for the Snohomish County Health dept. to allow this to happen.

Why didn’t the health dept advise the student he should stay home till the results come back negative.
 
otto said:
Interesting theory about how new cases are popping up with no connection to travel or other infected people.

Airplane arrives from infected area with one infected person. The infected person gets off the plane and someone else sits in that same seat. That person picks up the virus from the seat on the plane, touches face, gets the virus.
Click to expand...

JMO, it's more likely an infected person arrives in town, then goes out and spreads virus around in public places like airports, hotels, big stores, hospitals, train, bus, school, etc.

The average incubation period for COVID-19 is 14 days and those infected can spread it to others for many days before they become ill.
 
book-thinker said:
Irresponsible for the Snohomish County Health dept. to allow this to happen.

Why didn’t the health dept advise the student he should stay home till the results come back negative.
Click to expand...

Because our experts at the CDC keep telling everyone not to worry and that Americans are at "low risk" of getting it. MOO. I wonder if any of these experts will end up being held legally accountable?
 
Well, I just got started washing my hands and I could not remember all the words to "Happy Birthday To You".......so ......" 100 bottles of beer on the waaaaall....................." Darn Senior moments........moo
 
This is very bad....

Dr Jeff Duchin, Seattle & King County Public Health: 3 new presumptive cases #COVID19, including one person who died. 2 cases associated with long-term care facility called Life Care. One health-care worker, woman in 40s. No known travel outside US. Second woman in 70s, resident.
Meg Tirrell on Twitter

Seattle & King County’s Dr Jeff Duchin says of long-term care facility: 108 residents at facility, about 180 staff. Among residents reports that approx 27 have some sort of symptoms and among staff approx 25 #COVID19
Meg Tirrell on Twitter
 
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