Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #9

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Here we go with POTUS news conference. He’s talking about negotiations re: Afghanistan. Remembering those who have lost their lives, and wounded warriors. Thanking people in U.S. who have spent so much $. Have signed agreement to bring it down to around 1000 troops. Thanking United Nations and NATO, and Pompeo and Esper. POTUS will meet with Taliban soon. Long journey in Afghanistan. Time for Taliban to fight terrorists and other surrounding countries. Says down to 8660 troops. Believes Taliban wants this.

Now talk about COVID-19. Pros working round the clock. A tough one but progress made. 22 patients in U.S. A wonderful woman in late 50’s with medical issues. Four other very ill. Others at home recovering. Healthy people should be able to recover...if you’re healthy you’ll be fine. Most aggressive action in modern history to prevent spread. Jan 31 imposed travel restrictions on any coming from China. Apple in full operation. Wise decision despite great opposition. Most aggressive action by anyone. Fewer cases than any country. Will meet with pharma on Monday about vaccine. Tremendous amounts of supplies...43 million masks and more coming. Task force met for 2+ hours. Came up with strict edicts. So talented working around the clock. Doing really well. Prepared for any circumstances. Cautions that media and politicians not incite panic. No reason to panic. Thanks governors and all reps for speed they’ve worked.

Mike Pence to discuss travel. Condolences to family of woman who lost life. POTUS took decisive action and suspended travel from China...never done by a previous admin. Travel restrictions on Iran, any foreign national who visited Iran in last 14 days. Will increase to level 4 advisory not to travel to specific regions in Italy and South Korea. State dept will work with Italy and Korea re: screening people coming into U.S. Pence proud of agencies and team...working seamlessly with state and local levels...bipartisan in congress for funding for state and local. Masks...average person does not need to buy a mask. Patients and health care providers being protected. More masks to be produced and prioritizing health care providers. All hands on deck effort. Leaning in.

Azar...Health and Human Services Director. Predicted and expected that risk to average American low thanks to POTUS. But can change rapidly and will see more cases. For most the treatment will be to remain at home. Basic message is we want to lower amount of travel to contain.

Dr Tony Fauci...Director of National Institute of Allergy and infectious disease. Talks about community spread. Tracing contacts. Country remains low risk but evolving and will inform as today. Praising POTUS for preventing travel from China. Will try to prevent travel to countries and from. Community cases will be dealt with and expect it. Not be surprised. All resources dealing with it.

CDC Director : 22 cases in US related to travel to China.

Questions:
Trump:
”Hoax” is regarding demos as in impeachment and Russia. Doesn’t like criticizing people.

Flow of info that Dr Fauci being muzzled. Will he be allowed to tell the truth. Dishonest question. Fauci says not being muzzled. Had to asked to be cleared for TV shows.

Looking at closing southern border. Lots of power from courts.

Change routine? CDC: Go on with normal lives. Risk low.

Troops in S. Korea...being handled.

Linking hoax with virus could make people not take seriously. Saying didn’t say that...about Dems. Praising himself for closing travel from China against opposition. Praising team.

Precautions so POTUS doesn’t catch it. He hopes so. Goes to rally. In good shape.

Dr Fauci: Morbidity is following experiences of other countries. Most do well. 15-20% require care. Elderly and underlying conditions. But will see a 25 year old occasionally.
No indication that won’t get it again after recover.

Is US going to use measures China used. Cooperating. Starbucks and Apple open.

Did woman who died travel? Did not.
Are Americans on west coast at risk. Low risk.

Pharm meeting: process will move quickly. Expedited. Flexible policy about tests.

Question about Pence allowing HIV get out of control in Indiana. Will this attitude impact decisions. Pence talking about MERS and worked with CDC and local control. HIV in small town...deployed resources. State did not allow needle exchange and CDC came in. Ended ban on needle exchange for 30 days and ended cases. Dealing with these has informed him.

POTUS putting health ahead of economy right now.
Praising the team.
Will keep press informed.

Aaaaaaand it’s a wrap.
 
Reasonable & Just said:
This is unfortunate. People still need to work, and do so safely, since there's plenty to that can harm you in addition to a virus. I hope we can start some manufacturing here.
Click to expand...

Trump was just talking about giving businesses a tax break for this emergency. Instead he should consider allocating funds to compensate workers who are ill or can't work if there's a quarantine. They need our tax dollars more than some corporation needs them for paying executives and boosting stock prices.

MOO

ETA: I agree with the idea that the message of "carry on, keep doing what you're doing" is not good if schools need to close and there are further problems. We've already seen how this disease spreads in other countries. It's not going to be any different in the US. JMO
 
These threads are moving way too fast for me to keep up with now!

This post from the previous thread, by dixiegirl:

Was curious as to confusion of covid-19 with flu and numbers, so looked up flu this year compared to previous. Graphs below.

Weekly U.S. Influenza Surveillance Report (FluView)



Click to expand...
Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Emergency* #8

The bottom graph says inthe 2017/2018 flu season there were 100 hospitalisations (approx)for flu in the US for every 100,000 of the population, and that was a really bad year for total numbers of hospitalisations.

I think it was said that about 0.01% to 0.1% get flu each year for the US?

Sp 330 million divided by 100,000 is 3300, and that multiplied by 100 is 330,000 hospitalisations, peaking between December and April? ish. That sounds like quite a lot.

Let's say Covid-19 went totally wild in the USA (which hopefully it won't!) and 50% were infected between now and next April (we assume no vaccine until then).

165 million infected. Approx 20% hospitalisations would be 33 million. And 5% needing ICU would be just over 8 million.

So the potential worst-case scenario would be pretty bad. I think it's safe to say those figures would totally overwhelm the healthcare system, just by comparing them to the figures for flu and assuming the situation for nurses/doctors/beds/ICU etc in peak flu seasons aren't much different from the UK, ie. very very tight.

If we also assume that the virus will taper off in the summer months, I don't see the worst case scenario figures coming in the first 2/3rds of this year in the USA.

I need further thinking on what more realistic scenarios could be, with the assumption of the wave pattern dipping in the warmer months of the year. And if that pattern doesn't actually happen....then obviously it could be a lot worse, and maybe in that situation it would become more feasible for the worst-case type figures to become reality. Not necessarily quite that high, but enough to overwhelm healthcare facilities.

So, what would it take to overwhelm the hospitals if there are approx 330,000 hospitalisations in a bad year for flu? Twice that number? So I think that would take about 2.5 million infections in the USA would be really stretching the healthcare system, and that would be 1 in 132 people infected, approximately. And that is nothing near what the virologists are saying for the 60 in 100 people that could potentially be infected in a massive epidemic of a virus 'like' this that is fairly easy to catch/spread, could be spread when incubating/asymptomatic, no immunity in the population, and no vaccine.

So the 60% sounds really unlikely, yet the number is based on past epidemics...I wonder what kind of epidemics, with what kind of R0, and in what kind of societal and environmental conditions it can reach 60%? That is something to ponder.

I think it also illustrates pretty well why governments are taking this so seriously and even implementing lockdowns on cities and regions, and yet at the same time not wanting to go too overboard due to the adverse effects of longterm lockdowns and spiralling negative economic effects.
 
“With the number of discharged patients now greatly exceeding those of new arrivals, Wuhan now has more than 5,000 spare beds in 16 temporary treatment centers, Ma Xiaowei, director of the National Health Commission, told a news conference in Wuhan on Friday.”

Coronavirus updates: 1st US death in Washington, Italy travel advisory
Updated 19 minutes ago
 
Lilibet said:
Here we go with POTUS news conference. He’s talking about negotiations re: Afghanistan. Remembering those who have lost their lives, and wounded warriors. Thanking people in U.S. who have spent so much $. Have signed agreement to bring it down to around 1000 troops. Thanking United Nations and NATO, and Pompeo and Esper. POTUS will meet with Taliban soon. Long journey in Afghanistan. Time for Taliban to fight terrorists and other surrounding countries. Says down to 8660 troops. Believes Taliban wants this.

Now talk about COVID-19. Pros working round the clock. A tough one but progress made. 22 patients in U.S. A wonderful woman in late 50’s with medical issues. Four other very ill. Others at home recovering. Healthy people should be able to recover...if you’re healthy you’ll be fine. Most aggressive action in modern history to prevent spread. Jan 31 imposed travel restrictions on any coming from China. Apple in full operation. Wise decision despite great opposition. Most aggressive action by anyone. Fewer cases than any country. Will meet with pharma on Monday about vaccine. Tremendous amounts of supplies...43 million masks and more coming. Task force met for 2+ hours. Came up with strict edicts. So talented working around the clock. Doing really well. Prepared for any circumstances. Cautions that media and politicians not incite panic. No reason to panic. Thanks governors and all reps for speed they’ve worked.

Mike Pence to discuss travel. Condolences to family of woman who lost life. POTUS took decisive action and suspended travel from China...never done by a previous admin. Travel restrictions on Iran, any foreign national who visited Iran in last 14 days. Will increase to level 4 advisory not to travel to specific regions in Italy and South Korea. State dept will work with Italy and Korea re: screening people coming into U.S. Pence proud of agencies and team...working seamlessly with state and local levels...bipartisan in congress for funding for state and local. Masks...average person does not need to buy a mask. Patients and health care providers being protected. More masks to be produced and prioritizing health care providers. All hands on deck effort. Leaning in.

Azar...Health and Human Services Director. Predicted and expected that risk to average American low thanks to POTUS. But can change rapidly and will see more cases. For most the treatment will be to remain at home. Basic message is we want to lower amount of travel to contain.

Dr Tony Fauci...Director of National Institute of Allergy and infectious disease. Talks about community spread. Tracing contacts. Country remains low risk but evolving and will inform as today. Praising POTUS for preventing travel from China. Will try to prevent travel to countries and from. Community cases will be dealt with and expect it. Not be surprised. All resources dealing with it.

CDC Director : 22 cases in US related to travel to China.

Questions:
Trump:
”Hoax” is regarding demos as in impeachment and Russia. Doesn’t like criticizing people.

Flow of info that Dr Fauci being muzzled. Will he be allowed to tell the truth. Dishonest question. Fauci says not being muzzled. Had to asked to be cleared for TV shows.

Looking at closing southern border. Lots of power from courts.

Change routine? CDC: Go on with normal lives. Risk low.

Troops in S. Korea...being handled.

Linking hoax with virus could make people not take seriously. Saying didn’t say that...about Dems. Praising himself for closing travel from China against opposition. Praising team.

Precautions so POTUS doesn’t catch it. He hopes so. Goes to rally. In good shape.

Dr Fauci: Morbidity is following experiences of other countries. Most do well. 15-20% require care. Elderly and underlying conditions. But will see a 25 year old occasionally.
No indication that won’t get it again after recover.

Is US going to use measures China used. Cooperating. Starbucks and Apple open.

Did woman who died travel? Did not.
Are Americans on west coast at risk. Low risk.

Pharm meeting: process will move quickly. Expedited. Flexible policy about tests.

Question about Pence allowing HIV get out of control in Indiana. Will this attitude impact decisions. Pence talking about MERS and worked with CDC and local control. HIV in small town...deployed resources. State did not allow needle exchange and CDC came in. Ended ban on needle exchange for 30 days and ended cases. Dealing with these has informed him.

POTUS putting health ahead of economy right now.
Praising the team.
Will keep press informed.

Aaaaaaand it’s a wrap.
Click to expand...

Thank you very much @Lilibet
 
Lilibet said:
Here we go with POTUS news conference. He’s talking about negotiations re: Afghanistan. Remembering those who have lost their lives, and wounded warriors. Thanking people in U.S. who have spent so much $. Have signed agreement to bring it down to around 1000 troops. Thanking United Nations and NATO, and Pompeo and Esper. POTUS will meet with Taliban soon. Long journey in Afghanistan. Time for Taliban to fight terrorists and other surrounding countries. Says down to 8660 troops. Believes Taliban wants this.

Now talk about COVID-19. Pros working round the clock. A tough one but progress made. 22 patients in U.S. A wonderful woman in late 50’s with medical issues. Four other very ill. Others at home recovering. Healthy people should be able to recover...if you’re healthy you’ll be fine. Most aggressive action in modern history to prevent spread. Jan 31 imposed travel restrictions on any coming from China. Apple in full operation. Wise decision despite great opposition. Most aggressive action by anyone. Fewer cases than any country. Will meet with pharma on Monday about vaccine. Tremendous amounts of supplies...43 million masks and more coming. Task force met for 2+ hours. Came up with strict edicts. So talented working around the clock. Doing really well. Prepared for any circumstances. Cautions that media and politicians not incite panic. No reason to panic. Thanks governors and all reps for speed they’ve worked.

Mike Pence to discuss travel. Condolences to family of woman who lost life. POTUS took decisive action and suspended travel from China...never done by a previous admin. Travel restrictions on Iran, any foreign national who visited Iran in last 14 days. Will increase to level 4 advisory not to travel to specific regions in Italy and South Korea. State dept will work with Italy and Korea re: screening people coming into U.S. Pence proud of agencies and team...working seamlessly with state and local levels...bipartisan in congress for funding for state and local. Masks...average person does not need to buy a mask. Patients and health care providers being protected. More masks to be produced and prioritizing health care providers. All hands on deck effort. Leaning in.

Azar...Health and Human Services Director. Predicted and expected that risk to average American low thanks to POTUS. But can change rapidly and will see more cases. For most the treatment will be to remain at home. Basic message is we want to lower amount of travel to contain.

Dr Tony Fauci...Director of National Institute of Allergy and infectious disease. Talks about community spread. Tracing contacts. Country remains low risk but evolving and will inform as today. Praising POTUS for preventing travel from China. Will try to prevent travel to countries and from. Community cases will be dealt with and expect it. Not be surprised. All resources dealing with it.

CDC Director : 22 cases in US related to travel to China.

Questions:
Trump:
”Hoax” is regarding demos as in impeachment and Russia. Doesn’t like criticizing people.

Flow of info that Dr Fauci being muzzled. Will he be allowed to tell the truth. Dishonest question. Fauci says not being muzzled. Had to asked to be cleared for TV shows.

Looking at closing southern border. Lots of power from courts.

Change routine? CDC: Go on with normal lives. Risk low.

Troops in S. Korea...being handled.

Linking hoax with virus could make people not take seriously. Saying didn’t say that...about Dems. Praising himself for closing travel from China against opposition. Praising team.

Precautions so POTUS doesn’t catch it. He hopes so. Goes to rally. In good shape.

Dr Fauci: Morbidity is following experiences of other countries. Most do well. 15-20% require care. Elderly and underlying conditions. But will see a 25 year old occasionally.
No indication that won’t get it again after recover.

Is US going to use measures China used. Cooperating. Starbucks and Apple open.

Did woman who died travel? Did not.
Are Americans on west coast at risk. Low risk.

Pharm meeting: process will move quickly. Expedited. Flexible policy about tests.

Question about Pence allowing HIV get out of control in Indiana. Will this attitude impact decisions. Pence talking about MERS and worked with CDC and local control. HIV in small town...deployed resources. State did not allow needle exchange and CDC came in. Ended ban on needle exchange for 30 days and ended cases. Dealing with these has informed him.

POTUS putting health ahead of economy right now.
Praising the team.
Will keep press informed.

Aaaaaaand it’s a wrap.
Click to expand...

Thank you! The "wonderful woman," who might be a man, died. Just bizarre.
 
otto said:
Thank you! The "wonderful woman," who might be a man, died. Just bizarre.
Click to expand...

There are two people who died. They both are extremely recent. I believe the first was the woman last night, and the second was the man this morning. Obviously, they prepared for the presser without knowing about the second death. Not too bizarre imo.
 
Coronavirus Vaccine Hunt Sends Biotech Companies Scrambling To Treat Covid-19 | Investor's Business Daily
02/27/2020

“Moderna scientists took just 42 days to manufacture and send the first batch of a coronavirus vaccine to the National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases on Feb. 24, prompting one analyst to call it a "remarkable" turnaround. Meanwhile, biotech stock Gilead Sciences is already testing an experimental Ebola virus treatment in two groups of coronavirus patients in China. And the Food and Drug Administration just agreed to allow Gilead to test remdesivir in two Phase 3 studies, beginning in March.”
 
News conference disclaimer...I was typing fast and tried to go back later and delete anything that might seem “political,” but if I missed anything, my apologies. Quite honestly, there was a lot of political criticism by POTUS in his answers which was not necessary IMO. COVID-19 is not a political issue IMO.
 
“The student fell ill on Monday and was seen at two different clinics during the week. The student felt better on Friday morning and went back to school, only to learn of their test result and go straight home before the start of class.”

2 new coronavirus cases found in Seattle area, health officials say
FEB 28, 2020 at 8:25 PM
 
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