Coronavirus COVID-19 *Global Health Pandemic* #20

[Trudie]

Perhaps you haven’t read the articles about people who have needed to be tested and weren’t. Washington State is a prime example as is NYC.

Thanks, mostly what I’m reading is that people “want” to be tested but don’t meet the established guidelines. I think you’d be surprised how many would go for a test if they could get one without meeting criteria.

 

[galiuro1]

Coronavirus could peak next winter, says scientific study

A new study predicts that coronavirus infections could drop over the summer but then rise again next winter. Researchers looked at what will happen if the new coronavirus causing Covid-19 acts in the same way as other coronaviruses, which have lower transmission rates during the warmer months. In a paper which is currently undergoing peer review, ‘Potential Impact of Seasonal Forcing on a SARS-CoV-2 Pandemic’, researchers warn that we shouldn’t be complacent if the number of cases start to reduce. Their model showed that a ‘small peak in early 2020 in temperate regions of the Northern Hemisphere’ would be followed by ‘a larger peak in winter 2020-21’.

Read more: Coronavirus could peak next winter, says scientific study | Metro News

If that truly happens then how bout we don't screw that time period of opportunity up again mkay?

 

[Trudie]

What about just a plain old scarf wrapped around the mouth and nose? Or handkerchief? You know, like the bank robbers wear in old westerns.
I’m completely serious btw.

Lol, yup, a bandana! Better than nothing! One of my friends pulled his neck scarf up when he was over the last time, lol.

 

[Ray_of_hope]

Sadly we don't. But if I was a betting person, I'd throw all my chips in to bet that's whats happening. (lack of testing keeping the numbers low)

I agree @LaborDayRN . Dr Sanjay Gupta just had Don Lemon read off of his phone the the number of coronavirus tests done today. CDC testing today is zero and a total of 8 were performed by other public health agencies across the country.

 

[Lilibet]

Thanks, mostly what I’m reading is that people “want” to be tested but don’t meet the established guidelines. I think you’d be surprised how many would go for a test if they could get one without meeting criteria.

Not surprised at all. I agree. But it is important that we have the tests available for those who meet the criteria, and that the criteria not be so rigid that it rules out people who end up testing positive.

 

[Alethea]

Wasn't it you who said we can't take what happened in China seriously until we see what happens in Italy? And what now, we can trust what happened in Italy until it's in our back yard?

SBM: Italy and Iran were hit hardest because they are big participants in China’s Belt and Road Initiative and tons of Chinese workers work in factories in those countries. After Chinese New Year when workers returned, they brought the virus. It quickly spread to the local populations - who, in the case of Italy, spread it through the tourists around Europe and the US. These things make sense once you understand what actually happened instead of thinking it “randomly” traveled to Italy.

ETA: Is Italy playing with fire when it comes to China?

 

[BeckyF]

Isn't it amazing that the NBA, the Houston Livestock and Rodeo, and major money making events are being cancelled throughout the country over something that isn't as bad as the flu ?

Good point.

 

[Amonet]

Someone's going to have to pick their statistical poison, imo. Either there are WAY more non-serious cases because people aren't being tested and are also not dying - because clearly people aren't dropping like flies in the US; or far flung testing is conducted and shows that there are a ton of cases with the expected (more or less) number of very serious or fatal cases within a certain limited demographic. Proving that Corona is possibly more contagious but less dangerous, overall, than similar viruses we've dealt with in the recent past. So far, no one's been willing to choose for whatever reason.

That's exactly what has been said, that confirmed cases, not just in the US, are likely the tip of an iceberg, making this virus less deadly overall. But there could even now be some pneumonia deaths that haven't been diagnosed as Covid-19 even though that's what they were. Probably not very many right now, but there could easily be a few.

The stats for serious and critical cases per number of confirmed cases is on more solid ground as a predictive tool. And they are showing that it appears to be more of a problem than the average seasonal flu. That's why so many countries are trying to take it seriously. That's why Italy's hospitals are currently overwhelmed in some parts of the country...they have flu outbreaks every year just like the US does, but this Covid-19 outbreak is overwhelming their hospitals and might not yet have peaked. That is really the bigger issue than the overall mortality rate for an entire country from Covid-19.

I think this outbreak has a strong chance of being our generation's Spanish Flu...nowhere near as deadly to an individual as something like Ebola, but it hit so many people that it caused a lot of deaths and a lot of suffering. I hope this one doesn't get that bad, but again does the comparison really matter to the hospitals in the north of Italy who don't have enough ventilators for all the patients who need them?

 

[Amonet]

There will still be very few cases (relatively) in the US, but the more proven cases there are, the more it will be shown that the virus isn't terribly deadly. jmo

Tell that to the 14% or so of 0ver 80s hospitalised with it who come out in a coffin.

 

[What if...]

Information on these threads have been fast and furious!! Keeping up is getting next to impossible, but my appreciation for all of the contributions can’t be overstated!

As we’ve been watching CV-19 making its way around the globe, and the impact that it’s having on locations such as Italy, there’s one thing that isn’t making sense to me, and I’m hoping that someone on here can refresh my memory...

I know that China placed Wuhan, as well as all of Hubei under very strict quarantine, but what measures did they specifically take outside of Hubei? China has such a huge population outside of Hubei, that I don’t understand how the rest of China has been able to avoid devastating numbers outside of the Hubei region. Even if all of China were locked down as tight as Hubei, I don’t see how it’s even mathematically possible for those numbers to be so low!! Zero new cases outside of Hubei?? Really???
How????

For China to halt this pandemic in its tracks, and to say new cases are being imported from Italy.....

What did I miss???

Italy has a much smaller population than China, and China was completely caught off guard, yet Italy already has one quarter the number of deaths as all of China.

Seriously.... what am I missing here?

Hoping someone can provide a logical explanation. Hoping I just forgot a major piece of the puzzle...

Otherwise I’ll be heading down another rabbit hole in the morning!

But for now.... 2 Advil, some vitamin D, a little bit of zinc, a quick inventory check of my TP stash, and some much needed sleep....

Goodnight all

 

[zecats]

Lol, yup, a bandana! Better than nothing! One of my friends pulled his neck scarf up when he was over the last time, lol.

I’m going to start wearing turtlenecks. I don’t want Shop Rite to call the cops as I’m walking in the doors.
I do seriously believe it’s best to cover nose and mouth with something when we have to go out. And glasses or sunglasses for the eyes.

 

[Trudie]

Everyone, by the time they reach adulthood, should have some immunity to some coronavirus,” said Tim Sheahan, a coronavirus researcher at University of North Carolina’s Gillings School of Global Public Health. But because it doesn’t last, older people can get reinfected. The elderly also have a higher death rate from coronaviruses such as SARS and MERS, a pattern 2019-nCoV is following.

“There is some evidence that people can be reinfected with the four coronaviruses and that there is no long-lasting immunity,” Dr. Susan Kline, an infectious disease specialist at of the University of Minnesota. “Like rhinoviruses [which cause the common cold], you could be infected multiple times over your life. You can mount an antibody response, but it wanes, so on subsequent exposure you don’t have protection.” Subsequent infections often produce milder illness, however.

The common-cold-causing coronaviruses are different enough that an infection from one won’t produce immunity to another. But the novel coronavirus overlaps enough with SARS that survivors of the 2002-3003outbreak might have some immunity to the new arrival, Sheahan said: “Is it enough to prevent infection? I don’t know.” Experts envision two scenarios if new coronavirus isn't contained - STAT

 

[Brit]

Thanks, mostly what I’m reading is that people “want” to be tested but don’t meet the established guidelines. I think you’d be surprised how many would go for a test if they could get one without meeting criteria.

The biggest issue in NY. Is the lack of available testing. Most dr’s and clinic have not been provided with kits and the hospitals are rationing out their testing because they don’t have enough. So people, are being diagnosed as having viruses and sent out into the public without the safeguards of saying stay quarantined to your home because there is still a risk of spreading to others. And that is scary.

 

[LaborDayRN]

I agree @LaborDayRN . Dr Sanjay Gupta just had Don Lemon read off of his phone the the number of coronavirus tests done today. CDC testing today is zero and a total of 8 were performed by other public health agencies across the country.

Gaah!

 

[Lilibet]

It’s very instructive for those who wish to be informed by true experts like Dr Tony Fauci to read the highlights of his congressional testimony.

Just one tidbit comparing the mortality rate of the flu with coronavirus:

Probably for the practical understanding of the American people, the seasonal flu we deal with every year has a mortality of 0.1%. The stated mortality overall of this when you look at all the data, including China, is about 3%, it first started off as 2 and now 3. I think if you count all the cases of minimally symptomatic or asymptomatic, that probably brings the mortality down to around 1%. Which means this is ten times more lethal than the seasonal flu. I think that's something that people can get their arms around and understand."

Much more at the link:
8 key exchanges from the testimony of the nation's top infectious disease expert who warned the US outbreak is going to 'get worse'

 

[Amonet]

Well, there's some reality for ya direclty from the Mayo Clinic. So why is Corona being hyped so much? (rhetorical question)

You might want it to be a rhetorical question, but I'm not sure why?

The reason is that the flu figures are for full seasons. The current Covid-19 figures are not for a full season. We need to see this for a few seasons before we can make direct comparisons.

Right now hospitals in Italy are struggling more than they would in their seasonal flu outbreaks. Let's hope that isn't a sign of things to come in other countries including our own, wherever we are.

But let us also be aware that it could be very hard decisions that keep it from happening where we are.

I thought, watching President Trump's address to the nation that he made it sound potentially very serious. Potentially more serious than your average yearly flu epidemic.

Does he normally make those kind of addresses to the nation for yearly flu outbreaks? What do you think has provided the impetus for him to do that this time? The US doesn't usually stop travel from Europe for a seasonal flu outbreak? Is this something that might happen every flu season going forward?

 

[oviedo]

I have 3 weeks of food in the house, and I stocked up in 3 different trips, trying to appear inconspicuous, no toilet paper hoarding.

I was raised to have a stocked pantry so that when money is tight- or a disaster strikes - family can be fed - all the staples of course but I’ve enjoyed reading the unusual staples like sweet potatoes (make awesome baked fries with sea salt) and radishes. We always have the 10lb bag of rice from Aldi and jasmine / brown as well - potato’s like many have mentioned and canned goods - I do not have huge amounts of anything and don’t plan on buying anything extra at this point

 

[Trudie]

We

The biggest issue in NY. Is the lack of available testing. Most dr’s and clinic have not been provided with kits and the hospitals are rationing out their testing because they don’t have enough. So people, are being diagnosed as having viruses and sent out into the public without the safeguards of saying stay quarantined to your home because there is still a risk of spreading to others. And that is scary.

We have hardly any tests in KY, only someone meeting guidelines gets tested, after they are in quarantine & fail to improve, as far as I understand. Our gov’ authorized makeshift pharms’, if we need them. Iirc we had 20 tests in one day, that was the max.

 

[galiuro1]

I agree @LaborDayRN . Dr Sanjay Gupta just had Don Lemon read off of his phone the the number of coronavirus tests done today. CDC testing today is zero and a total of 8 were performed by other public health agencies across the country.

What the #@**???

 

[Trudie]

Dr. Phil is on TMZ now, he thinks a lot of peop,es are hypochondriacs, he also explained it is not the virus, it is the immune system & stressing out can cause immune system probs. He also believes this is serious and not taken lightly. He sounds sick, lol....he has nasal congestion.