Hasn't even been peer reviewed and based on what if's.
It was put out there in MSM by the "prediction police experts" that over half the country up to 80% will get the virus.
Fear mongering.
Yep, 80% is when herd immunity results as the end game. You call it fear mongering, but the truth is scary sometimes. That doesn't mean folks should discount it, hopefully it will make them ACT.
It's a mathematical formula if nothing was done and the virus had a certain R0, (I think they used R0 of 3 when we discussed this in ~ thread #2) what herd immunity would result in.
Folks downplay by calling it fear mongering, but it's just a simple fact MOO if NOTHING was done. It's well accepted modelling for epidemics that scientists use all over, and it pooh poohed by many folks who just can't believe or wrap their heads around it.
I just had a FB interaction with someone who was pooh poohing what his city said about having only 107 cases, and that his county said over 50,000 by beginning of May and 1,000 deaths if folks didn't change their behavior/isolate/stay at home, and this was my response.
"I think many state/local governments are modelling for the worst case perhaps to align capacity for their health systems, and to get the average person to modify their behavior - is it working? I read the article you are referring to, and in it states that says "Currently, the county is seeing a doubling of confirmed cases every 4-5 days." So if your folks are using a doubling time of your current
107 cases every 4 days, your county would indeed get over 50,000 positive tests and 1,000 deaths with a 2% death rate by May 1 or until the peak is reached and starts to come down with that input. I just did the math. (Heck, they could have started with the 8 deaths because who the hell knows the true rate of infection anywhere in the US, and ended up mathematically with 4,096 deaths if doubled every 4 days) . The models are tools for tactics to justify their decisions which indeed does scare folks even when they can't fathom it to be true. Yet, it indeed could be if nothing was changed, such as social distancing and closing schools and businesses. Buuuutttttt
, if the doubling of that 107 is every 5 days vs. 4, you will decrease projected infections from 50,000 to 19,000 and deaths from 1,000 to 380 in the same period. Buuutttttt,
If it doubles every 6 days you get down to 6,848 cases and 137 deaths.......But using worse case scenario of doubling every 4 days is more likely to make you, the average person, change your behavior to get that doubling time longer with less infections; and cities need to prepare for the worst, and hope for the best.
