Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #41

[NuttMegg]

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Has anyone posted this yet? Maddow interviewed one of the researchers who put together this model, the one referred to by Brix at the presser, with the dire predictions. You can see the projections by state. Also, interesting interview.

 

[Tadpole12]

Trump's alarming message portends tragic days ahead - CNNPolitics
Maybe this is political. I hope not. It’s not intended by me.

Ty. Interesting summary, I had as yet not seen the Video.

 

[katydid23]

I don't agree, because the manufacturers that have to retool are estimating 100 days. How can we promise to send ventilators all over Europe when our own citizens are dying without them? How can anyone estimate what surplus might exist in 100 days?
Trump says US to send medical supplies to Italy, France, Spain - France 24

As Governors Plead for Tests, Trump Promises Ventilators to Europe

He is not going to send them to the EU until we have all we need here. He was asked a question about what to do if we end up with an excess...

Some manufacturers are already sending them out. We will have them for the places that are still a week or two out. Our own citizens are not dying 'without them' at this point. Even NYC still has some in reserve.

Keep in mind, some news sources want us to look like we are failing. Do your own research before accepting everything that msm prints.

 

[margarita25]

Los Angeles:


L.A. Mayor Garcetti announces new regulations for construction sites, expands coronavirus testing
4 hours ago

“At his daily briefing Tuesday, Los Angeles Mayor Eric Garcetti said there were 215 new coronavirus cases reported in the city, an 18% increase from the previous day.”

[...]

“The mayor thanked an anonymous donor who gave $1 million dollars to the city, to be distributed through grocery store gift cards to "the neediest people in this crisis." Various grocery chains donated as well, adding up to a total of $1.2 million in gift cards.

Garcetti also thanked Rihanna and Jay-Z for contributions, adding that he hoped it would inspire other celebrities to donate as well.

"All of us are first responders when it comes to this virus," Garcetti said.“

—-

Social distancing may have helped California slow the virus and avoid New York’s fate

(See @gitana1, the garlic chewing worked )

—-

Coronavirus: La Cañada Flintridge Man Finds Partner Dead After Telehealth Doctors Declined Visit

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L.A. restaurants will be allowed to sell grocery items

“L.A. restaurants that have turned empty dining rooms into ad hoc corner markets — selling pantry staples, dry goods and more to stay afloat amid a forced shutdown — can continue to do so for takeout or delivery, according to an email from the Los Angeles County Department of Public Health.

“Public Health is allowing restaurants to offer grocery items as part of their menu for takeout, pickup and delivery,” a department representative wrote in the email sent to The Times on Tuesday.”

—-

Dining and Driving on the Empty Freeways of Los Angeles

—-

Apr 1, 2020,12:20am EDT
How To Take A Star-Studded Los Angeles Virtual Vacation

 

[Tadpole12]

Germany to give 100,000 people coronavirus antibody tests | Daily Mail Online

"Germany is planning to bring in 'immunity certificates' as part of preparations for the country to cease its lockdown."

 

[katydid23]

Well, there are additional county restrictions on top of the state restrictions in New Hanover County in North Carolina. Some of them I don't agree with. You can no longer go inside of a restaurant to place a to go order since inside dining is no longer allowed. Curb side pickup or delivery only. That means truckers who can not go through drive thrus are having a heck of a time getting lunch. If you have a work truck that will not fit under a drive thru canopy and you can't call in an order for pickup, like a Hardees, McDonalds, Arbys etc. You can't order the food.
Another thing, you can use the parks for walking but the restrooms are closed.
Another thing, since the beaches are closed, you can't go just sit on the beach and relax for some fresh air. I decided to go and buy a folding lounge chair so that I could at least sit in my backyard. All of my old chairs were destroyed during the last two hurricanes. I found that stores that sell essential needs as well as not essential needs are not allowed to sell the nonessential need items. Walmart closed off the nonessential aisles and you could not buy those items, although you are practicing social distancing. You are only allowed to buy the essential items.....

That non essential items things seems really stupid to me. If you want a lawn chair to sit in your own yard, and Walmart is open for business, why can't they sell it to you, if you are also buying essentials. I assume if you are in Walmart you are also picking up eggs and milk, right?

some of these rules seem stupid and pointless.

I saw a comment about people in msm, criticising a woman and her daughter, 'browsing 'clothing and jewellery in Walmart, saying it was non-essential.

But what if it was the young girls birthday? I would want to buy her a necklace and a pretty shirt, even if it is 'lockdown.' Kids need to have some sense of normalcy. At least she could sent a pic on snapchat to her friends of her new top and necklace, to celebrate.

 

[gregjrichards]

Here are the latest global figures now, according to Johns Hopkins University.

There are just shy of 860,000 confirmed cases worldwide, with the total currently at 859,796.

There have been 42,332 deaths. Here are ten worst-affected countries by number of confirmed cases, with the US more than 80,000 cases ahead of the next worst-affected country, Italy.

Confirmed US cases account for roughly 1 in 5 worldwide.

1. US: 189,510
2. Italy: 105,792
3. Spain: 95,923
4. China: 82,294
5. Germany: 71,808
6. France: 52,836
7. Iran: 44,605
8. United Kingdom: 25,481
9. Switzerland: 16,605
10. Turkey: 13,531

Here are the ten countries with the highest number of coronavirus-related deaths:

1. Italy: 12,428 deaths
2. Spain: 8,464 deaths
3. US: 4,079 deaths
4. France: 3,523 deaths
5. China: 3,310 deaths
   
6. Iran: 2,898 deaths
7. United Kingdom: 1,789 deaths
8. Netherlands: 1,039 deaths
9. Germany: 775 deaths
10. Belgium: 705 deaths

There have been 178,301 recoveries.

Coronavirus live news: US deaths could reach 240,000 as UN says world faces worst crisis since WW2

 

[margarita25]

Jumping off your post above @gregjrichards,

BBC / 2 hours ago:
Coronavirus outbreak 'greatest test since WW2'

BBM:
“The current coronavirus outbreak is the biggest challenge for the world since World War Two, UN Secretary General António Guterres has warned.

He said it could bring a recession "that probably has no parallel in the recent past".

Mr Guterres was speaking at the launch of a UN report on the potential socioeconomic impact of the outbreak.”

[...]


“Meanwhile, Spain, one of the worst hit countries, recorded 849 deaths in the last 24 hours - the highest number of fatalities in a single day.

In the UK, a total of 1,789 people have died on 30 March - a rise of 381, officials say. Among the victims was a 13-year-old boy, King's College Hospital Trust in London said.”

—

““We are facing a global health crisis unlike any in the 75-year history of the United Nations — one that is killing people, spreading human suffering, and upending people”s lives. But this is much more than a health crisis. It is a human crisis,” Guterres said at the virtual launch of a new report ”Shared responsibility, global solidarity: Responding to the socio-economic” on the socio-economic impact of the COVID-19. “

Coronavirus Pandemic Most Challenging Crisis Since WW2, Read UN Chief's Warning on Outbreak

 

[katydid23]

I don't have any stores around here so have to make do. I have some old sunblock shirts that have very tightly woven but lightweight fabric. I wonder if that would be better than cotton/poly that is more loosely woven?

You need to be able to breathe comfortably, and if it is too tightly woven, you might be gasping for air, and it might be too hot to wear continuously. JMO

 

[katydid23]

I didn't realize that stores were going to that extent to enforce the "essential items." My trip to Wal-Mart last week, I started to buy my Grandson some underwear, is that essential, lol?

Again, these 'non essential' item rules are bugging e...
My 4 yr old granddaughter is starting to get cabin fever. I was planning to get some more art supplies, like construction paper and glitter glue etc, because my DIL said they were going through all their art supplies fast.

Will they not sell any art supplies or colouring books now? Or children's books? They seem essential to me now.

 

[margarita25]

IHME | COVID-19 Projections

Has anyone posted this yet? Maddow interviewed one of the researchers who put together this model, the one referred to by Brix at the presser, with the dire predictions. You can see the projections by state. Also, interesting interview.

Forecasting COVID-19 impact on hospital bed-days, ICU-days, ventilator days and deaths by US state in the next 4 months


“IMPORTANCE
This study presents the first set of estimates of predicted health service utilization and deaths due to COVID-19 by day for the next 4 months for each state in the US.

OBJECTIVE
To determine the extent and timing of deaths and excess demand for hospital services due to COVID-19 in the US.

DESIGN, SETTING, AND PARTICIPANTS
This study used data on confirmed COVID-19 deaths by day from WHO websites and local and national governments; data on hospital capacity and utilization for US states; and observed COVID-19 utilization data from select locations to develop a statistical model forecasting deaths and hospital utilization against capacity by state for the US over the next 4 months.

EXPOSURE(S)
COVID-19.

MAIN OUTCOME(S) AND MEASURE(S)
Deaths, bed and ICU occupancy, and ventilator use.

RESULTS
Compared to licensed capacity and average annual occupancy rates, excess demand from COVID-19 at the peak of the pandemic in the second week of April is predicted to be 64,175 (95% UI 7,977 to 251,059) total beds and 17,309 (95% UI 2,432 to 57,584) ICU beds. At the peak of the pandemic, ventilator use is predicted to be 19,481 (95% UI 9,767 to 39,674). The date of peak excess demand by state varies from the second week of April through May. We estimate that there will be a total of 81,114 deaths (95% UI 38,242 to 162,106) from COVID-19 over the next 4 months in the US. Deaths from COVID-19 are estimated to drop below 10 deaths per day between May 31 and June 6.

CONCLUSIONS AND RELEVANCE
In addition to a large number of deaths from COVID-19, the epidemic in the US will place a load well beyond the current capacity of hospitals to manage, especially for ICU care. These estimates can help inform the development and implementation of strategies to mitigate this gap, including reducing non-COVID-19 demand for services and temporarily increasing system capacity. These are urgently needed given that peak volumes are estimated to be only three weeks away. The estimated excess demand on hospital systems is predicated on the enactment of social distancing measures in all states that have not done so already within the next week and maintenance of these measures throughout the epidemic, emphasizing the importance of implementing, enforcing, and maintaining these measures to mitigate hospital system overload and prevent deaths.”

 

[margarita25]

Situation report - 71
Coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19)
31 March 2020

 

[katydid23]

Years ago I got my now 86 year old mom interested in FaceBook. She loves it. Then I convinced her to finally replace her old desktop computer with an iMac/laptop, complete with lessons from me and Apple. She's a whizz now and just yesterday was telling me how proud she was of herself for figuring out how to order her groceries online. I'm more than grateful I pushed her out of her comfort zone back then.

From age 80 to about 86, my Mom was a whiz on her I-pad. She could send emails and look at pictures on the FB my brother set up for her, with no problem.
But around 3 years ago, at about 86 or 87, she began having problems remembering how to use it. Eventually she could only use it if one of us was sitting with her.......

The same with her I-phone. It is too complicated now because her short term memory is very spotty. It just stresses her out to try and remember how to use it, or charge it, or even find it.

We tried giving her an Alexa, last Christmas....and it creeped her out. lol...she said she couldn't sleep with 'it watching her.' lmao

 

[margarita25]

Marines Stop Shipping New Recruits to Parris Island to Limit COVID-19 Spread - USNI News
March 30, 2020

“The Marine Corps will temporarily suspend shipping new recruits to Marine Corps Recruit Depot Parris Island in South Carolina, after a handful of cases of the COVID-19 virus have been diagnosed at the installation.

“The preservation of our Marines, recruits and their families is the highest priority for Marine Corps Recruiting during this national emergency,” Commandant of the Marine Corps Gen. David Berger said in a news release.”

[...]

“On the Navy side, a recruit at Recruit Training Command Great Lakes in Illinois tested positive for the virus and is isolated at a federal hospital outside Chicago, the Navy announced on Sunday. On March 26, the command also began a 14-day isolation period for recruits ahead of the start of training to prevent the spread of the virus at Great Lakes.”

—-

“The Marine Corps is halting new shipments of recruits to its fabled East Coast boot camp base after more than 20 people there tested positive for the highly contagious virus that has altered life around the globe.”

Marine Corps Closes Parris Island Boot Camp to New Recruits as COVID-19 Cases Spread
30 Mar 2020

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“Within the Navy, there are currently 104 sailors, 23 civilians, 16 family members and 19 contractors who have tested positive for COVID-19, he said.

Several sailors who have tested positive are aboard the aircraft carrier USS Theodore Roosevelt, he said. Those sailors are being flown off the ship to a Defense Department facility in Guam. All who tested positive show relatively mild symptoms and are recovering.”

[...]

“Of Marine Corps personnel testing positive thus far, there are 31 Marines, five civilians, five family members and three contractors, he said.

Total COVID-19 cases for the entire DOD are 280 military, 134 civilians, 98 family members and 62 contractors, according to today's Pentagon media fact sheet update.”

Top Navy, Marine Corps Officials Provide COVID-19 Update
https://www.defense.gov/Explore/News/Article/Article/2126589/navy-marine-corps-leaders-provide-covid-19-update/
MARCH 26, 2020

 

[katydid23]

Hobby Lobby quietly reopened stores in at least 2 states, defying coronavirus-related shutdowns and prompting police intervention

Is "Hobby Lobby" an "essential business"? The stores in Montana are still open.

Not to just use Hobby Lobby as an example, because Joann's and Michaels craft stores are also open in Montana. Looks like the Sheriff might get serious soon..
Lewis & Clark County to step up enforcement of stay-home order

Those stores were essential for school supplies and for supplies for school projects and reports and experiments.

I imagine a lot of 'home schooling' uses projects and experiments for their lessons.

And what else can you do with your kids who are locked down but give them arts and crafts and models to build and projects to complete?

I vote for essential. JMO

 

[nightowl1975]

Those stores were essential for school supplies and for supplies for school projects and reports and experiments.

I imagine a lot of 'home schooling' uses projects and experiments for their lessons.

And what else can you do with your kids who are locked down but give them arts and crafts and models to build and projects to complete?

I vote for essential. JMO

I think a lot more people will die while Americans figure out what is TRULY “essential”.

Hint: It’s not arts and crafts IMO.

 

[Lilibet]

Do you guys think that cheesecloth would make a effective mask?

I think you’re joking. Right?

If I understand it correctly, high thread count cotton like "tea towels" is best. Is cheesecloth like that?

Cheesecloth is used as a strainer for cheesemaking and other food.

Cheesecloth - Wikipedia

 

[katydid23]

That is why it will be prohibited for others, there's always that one person. IMO

Exactly. And before I read about that idiot, I had thought that allowing one person into the delivery room is a no-brainer, because obviously no one would put their loved ones in danger during child birth...but NO, there has to be that one total idiot...

 

[katydid23]

I think a lot more people will die while Americans figure out what is TRULY “essential”.

Hint: It’s not arts and crafts IMO.

I think you can wear a mask and gloves and make a quick trip to get paper and markers, without dying or killing anyone.

I wouldn't do it in NYC, or LA...but I would do it responsibly in less infectious areas...JMO

 

[katydid23]

That really surprises me that a dish towel is better than a pillow case or silk. Silk is so tightly woven, it even cuts the wind on cold days. Pillowcases too, much more tightly woven than the dish towels I've used.

But can you breathe through tightly woven fabrics?