Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #52

[Lilibet]

Wow, I used to live in Tierrasanta. Oh yes, your FIL can't get this Covid-19. No, no. I know you will keep track of how he's feeling. He might already have been exposed, but let's hope not. Does the home care person wear a mask and take their own temp everyday?

Tierrasanta is such a neat area. My husband’s very capable (and exhausted) sister who lives a few miles north is handling everything, so I know she’ll make sure precautions are taken. She doesn’t have all the arrangements in place yet. IMO He should have live-in help or go stay with her, but I doubt he would agree to either, so we shall see. Up until now he’s had someone who comes in and cooks dinner and cleans, but I think things have progressed beyond that. My husband (his stepson) calls him regularly. My FIL has told my dh he’s fallen “but don’t tell your sister.” Ha! Dream on FIL!

 

[weepingangel]

Even though lawful in Michigan, I don't see the point of bringing a gun to a protest that is about the economy and public health. What's the gun for?

jmo

“protection”
Mask might be a better option

 

[Bravo]

So happy for my SIL. Her hip replacement surgery was cancelled due to Covid. Her Surgeon called her today and she is on the OR Roster for 2 weeks from now. She has been in agony for so long. Trooper she is has been at her sewing machine well into the night making masks despite the pain.

 

[Sillybilly]

Folks, while we are allowing the MSM links to articles about the various protests, they are allowed basically for information purposes only. They are just to give members a newsworthy perspective about what is going on but the overall subject is not open to discussion.

Bickering or debate about the protests, the constitution, civil rights, who's right or wrong, or whose side anyone is on will go absolutely nowhere, nor will the issues be resolved at Websleuths.

 

[Bravo]

So 31 States about to reopen. So many different guidelines as to what will open. So if u cant get a hair cut in your State you simply drive to another. Oh my. I don't want to see the numbers in the coming weeks

 

[dmac55]

dbm

 

[Henry2326]

TRAVIS BEDFORD

I know all the discussion is about a possible "2nd wave", but I've found this odd given that we haven't finished the first one. I would think quite possible that, nationally, we're in for a scenario of a long plateau. 1/10

If we look at confirmed cases through time in the US, we see a plateau of ~30k confirmed cases per day for basically the entire month of April. This corresponds to a decrease of the effective reproduction number to ~1. Figure from @cmmid_lshtm's Covid-19: Temporal variation in transmission during the COVID-19 outbreak. 2/10 Trevor Bedford on Twitter

As stated before, it's clear that social distancing has had a large impact on transmission (Trevor Bedford on Twitter). However, this effect has been shy of suppression nationally and hence the plateau in cases rather than a consistent decrease. 3/10

This plateau at a national level is the result of some states with rising case counts (and Rt greater than 1) and other states with falling case counts (and Rt less than 1). 4/10 Trevor Bedford on Twitter

As we move forward into summer, transmission rate will be affected by:
1. efforts to get society and the economy moving again
2. better knowledge and hygiene practices
3. possible impact of seasonality
5/10

In terms of seasonality, there is increasing evidence of the importance to transmission of indoor spaces where people spend lots of time (COVID-19 Outbreak Associated with Air Conditioning in Restaurant, Guangzhou, China, 2020, Coronavirus Disease Outbreak in Call Center, South Korea). Summer should improve this. 6/10

However, given that Rt nationally is at the moment ~1, I don't see why we expect large declines in daily case counts over the next month, given that behavior has been pretty static, or perhaps rising. Figure from COVID‑19 - Mobility Trends Reports - Apple. 7/10 Trevor Bedford on Twitter

I would suspect that the dynamic we're looking at is local policy decisions / people's changing behavior as risk is perceived to decrease resulting in increasing local case counts and then a cycle of increased social distancing to compensate. 8/10

There may well be cities / counties that achieve suppression locally, but nationally I expect things be messy with flare-ups in various geographies followed by responses to these flare-ups. 9/10

If we continue at our current pace of perhaps ~300k infections per day (Trevor Bedford on Twitter). The US would have very roughly 50M cumulative infections by September 1 and be at ~15% population immunity. 10/10

I'd be happy to wrong here and start to see a week-over-week decline. I just don't know what gets us there if we're not there already.

An important subtlety I missed in the original thread: Tests per day almost doubled from ~120k to ~200k over the course of April while confirmed cases remained roughly flat at ~30k per day. Does suggest some decrease in number of infections, though probably less than than 1.6X.

Trevor Bedford on Twitter

 

[10ofRods]

Here's a study from Germany about active virus in various non-symptomatic age groups, including children. Sample size on the small side, but the findings were clear.

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

Children and adults alike shed virus more strongly before symptoms occur, with no differences in the amount shed by children vs adults. All age groups infected with CoVid were able to transmit CoVid equally.

The surprising thing, really, is that among even the people who went on to be hospitalized, their most virulent point was 2-3 days after infection and before a fever appeared.

After the fever appeared, viral load dropped in many, which the authors indicate deserves further study, as do many other aspects of their findings.

While age made no difference in who was contagious; it makes a big difference in symptoms.

Because it was adult travelers who transmitted this disease around the world, and business communities and the families of adult workers were hit first, and because children are relatively asymptomatic, it's been perceived by some that "children can't transmit" but the above study states otherwise. There are a couple of other studies reaching the same conclusion.

 

[tresir2012]

A few words about bats: apparently they have one of the toughest immune systems in the entire mammalian class. Sort of like some birds. Anyway, the viruses they host frequently would be fatal to other mammals, but not to bats. Bats therefore continue to host some really gnarly viruses.

So when a virus jumps species, as this one did, the nature of the host species helps determine just how gnarly it is. This is the first bat virus I know of to get to humans, and I thought it was interesting that bat viruses are so hardy. Why, therefore, anyone would continue to have bats in a human marketplace (and labs studying bat viruses just in case a bat virus escaped its host species) is beyond me. Why not simply ban bats from the marketplace, thereby making it virtually impossible for anyone to get such a virus - and therefore, obviating the need to study multiple bat coronaviruses in lab conditions (where there are humans and humans do make mistakes - sometimes very serious ones).

Didn't SARS and MERS also come from bats? I didn't know they actually sold bats at the Wuhan marketplace. I had not heard that before but if that was the case, it is extremely risky. Also, they believe it went via another host before infecting humans. It is about 95% from bats and the rest unknown. SARS apparently went from bats to civets to humans.

 

[margarita25]

Houston mayor prepares for expanded business reopenings

“”We need to be smart about this," Dr. Persse said, offering an illustration of a restaurant layout. "It doesn't mean you close off 75 percent of the floor space and operate 25 percent of your restaurant. The whole point of this is to have social distancing built into your business model."

Persse said several restaurant owners told him they were going to close off certain parts of the business, to which the public health chief said wouldn't achieve their goal of safely serving customers.

The same principle applies to malls and retailers, Persse added.”

 

[Henry2326]

WISCONSIN- The bottom line is we have several incidents, several surges of positive virus tests happening and in several food processing plants across the state of Wisconsin," said Governor Tony Evers.

One of those plants includes the Birds Eye food processing plant in Darien. Conagra, its parent company, said more than 100 workers have tested positive for COVID-19. The plant is now shut down. United Migrant Opportunity Services (UMOS) represents migrant workers at Birds Eye. The advocacy group spokesperson Rod Ritcherson said more safety measures need to be taken before the plant reopens to stop another outbreak from happening.

Conagra Brands, the parent company of Birds Eye, tells us that video is where workers are living who are recovering from COVID-19, not those who do not have the illness. The company said workers without the illness have beds where plexiglass barriers have been installed between the bunks or people are not sleeping directly next to each other.

The Birds Eye plant has been shut down since April 17th. It is not the only food processing plant dealing with outbreaks.

FOOD PROCESSING PLANT COVID-19 CASES
Darien:
104 COVID-19 cases at Birds Eye

Green Bay:
260 COVID-19 cases at JBS
170 COVID-19 cases at American Food Group

Village of Denmark:
35 COVID-19 cases at Salm Partners

Cudahy:
28 COVID-19 cases at Smithfield

TOTAL = 597

That is 9% of the total number if COVID-19 cases in the state. That number is likely higher because not all food plants are saying how many of their workers are testing positive for COVID-19. The governor said the goal now is to get all workers tested for COVID-19 and their families.

Food processing plants see surge in COVID-19 cases, including more than 100 in Darien

 

[Bravo]

Maybe it's time to listen to the message bats are clearly sending. Leave us the hell alone.

 

[margarita25]

6th Employee At JBS Meat Packaging Plant Dies From Coronavirus

“The president of the union told CBS4 the employees shouldn’t have been allowed to return without everyone being tested for the virus. On Sunday, the union says they received a cease and desist letter from the company regarding its practices and tactics during the coronavirus outbreak at the plant.

Testing of management took place, but the plan to test all the workers fell apart when more requirements were added.”

• More at link including safety measures / ongoing disease mitigation and containment measures

Here is a good example of someone that should have been furloughed and not worried about money-

Sandra Kunz wanted to keep working as a Walmart (WMT) cashier even as the coronavirus spread.

Despite a lung condition, the 72-year-old in Aurora, Colorado, needed to get her paycheck, according to her sister, Paula Spellman. Her husband, Gus, was injured and out of work, and the couple had bills due.
Kunz died on April 20 from complications related to the coronavirus, her sister said. Gus, who was also sick from the virus, died two days before his wife.
While it is unclear how the couple contracted the virus, Spellman said her sister had expressed concerns about customers at Walmart coughing on her at the cash register.

"I wish she didn't work there. I wish she had taken leave," Spellman said. "I get angry because she should have been more protected."

Sandra was in the bullseye of coronavirus.

72 with a lung condition. Interacts with people all day. And "needed to get her paycheck". What were her odds of dying from going to her job each day- maybe 10% or more?

America failed those in nursing homes. There is alternate path to more failures in the future- protect the vulnerable.

This is the most dangerous place in the grocery store - CNN

From the above link:

“The cash register has emerged as the most dangerous place in the store, according to public health and worker safety experts. Every item cashiers touch, scan and bag has been handled by customers and other workers. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention saysit is possible that a person can get coronavirus by touching a surface or object that has the virus on it.”

WISCONSIN- The bottom line is we have several incidents, several surges of positive virus tests happening and in several food processing plants across the state of Wisconsin," said Governor Tony Evers.

One of those plants includes the Birds Eye food processing plant in Darien. Conagra, its parent company, said more than 100 workers have tested positive for COVID-19. The plant is now shut down. United Migrant Opportunity Services (UMOS) represents migrant workers at Birds Eye. The advocacy group spokesperson Rod Ritcherson said more safety measures need to be taken before the plant reopens to stop another outbreak from happening.

Conagra Brands, the parent company of Birds Eye, tells us that video is where workers are living who are recovering from COVID-19, not those who do not have the illness. The company said workers without the illness have beds where plexiglass barriers have been installed between the bunks or people are not sleeping directly next to each other.

The Birds Eye plant has been shut down since April 17th. It is not the only food processing plant dealing with outbreaks.

FOOD PROCESSING PLANT COVID-19 CASES
Darien:
104 COVID-19 cases at Birds Eye

Green Bay:
260 COVID-19 cases at JBS
170 COVID-19 cases at American Food Group

Village of Denmark:
35 COVID-19 cases at Salm Partners

Cudahy:
28 COVID-19 cases at Smithfield

TOTAL = 597

That is 9% of the total number if COVID-19 cases in the state. That number is likely higher because not all food plants are saying how many of their workers are testing positive for COVID-19. The governor said the goal now is to get all workers tested for COVID-19 and their families.

Food processing plants see surge in COVID-19 cases, including more than 100 in Darien

These food workers/plants are taking a beating.

 

[margarita25]

Dbm consolidate

 

[cody22]

Most Americans cannot or will not use COVID-19 contact tracing apps: poll

National Virus Contact Tracing News.....moo

 

[PommyMommy]

CDC on Twitter
1 in 4 people hospitalized with #COVID19 in Georgia during March 2020 were under age 65 and had no high-risk medical conditions. Social distancing is important to protect everyone. Learn more from @CDCMMWR:
Characteristics and Clinical Outcomes of Adult Patients Hospitalized with COVID-19 — Georgia, March 2020

1:15 PM - 29 Apr 2020

CDC on Twitter
Living with older family members or others at higher risk of severe illness from #COVID19? Help protect your household by only leaving your house when absolutely necessary.
Get more info here: Households Living in Close Quarters

3:30 PM - 29 Apr 2020

CDC on Twitter
Everyone can help prevent spread of #COVID19. Clara, the #Coronavirus Self-Checker, can help you decide when to call your doctor if you are feeling sick. Start using Clara here: Symptoms of Coronavirus - Self Checker

4:49 PM - 29 Apr 2020

 

[tresir2012]

Here's a study from Germany about active virus in various non-symptomatic age groups, including children. Sample size on the small side, but the findings were clear.

https://zoonosen.charite.de/fileadm...s-of-SARS-CoV-2-viral-load-by-patient-age.pdf

Children and adults alike shed virus more strongly before symptoms occur, with no differences in the amount shed by children vs adults. All age groups infected with CoVid were able to transmit CoVid equally.

The surprising thing, really, is that among even the people who went on to be hospitalized, their most virulent point was 2-3 days after infection and before a fever appeared.

After the fever appeared, viral load dropped in many, which the authors indicate deserves further study, as do many other aspects of their findings.

While age made no difference in who was contagious; it makes a big difference in symptoms.

Because it was adult travelers who transmitted this disease around the world, and business communities and the families of adult workers were hit first, and because children are relatively asymptomatic, it's been perceived by some that "children can't transmit" but the above study states otherwise. There are a couple of other studies reaching the same conclusion.

Regarding children there were only 47 who tested positive out of over 2,000 children so as you say I don't think the sample is large enough to make good conclusions from this study.

 

[10ofRods]

Houston mayor prepares for expanded business reopenings

“”We need to be smart about this," Dr. Persse said, offering an illustration of a restaurant layout. "It doesn't mean you close off 75 percent of the floor space and operate 25 percent of your restaurant. The whole point of this is to have social distancing built into your business model."

Persse said several restaurant owners told him they were going to close off certain parts of the business, to which the public health chief said wouldn't achieve their goal of safely serving customers.

The same principle applies to malls and retailers, Persse added.”

Wow. Well - yeah. The only time we went to get take out, the restaurant had a tiny area open, but people then crowded into it. Why was that? Why didn't they have a larger area for the customer and waitperson to stand (they were not 6 feet apart, more like 3). Restaurant was empty...I wondered if they worried about robbery or controlling entrance into a larger space.

 

[10ofRods]

Regarding children there were only 47 who tested positive out of over 2,000 children so as you say I don't think the sample is large enough to make good conclusions from this study.

But, better than just using opinion.

We cannot wish more kids to get sick, so that we can study them. Medical researchers use these clues, at any rate - and they're often quite right. I think we'll see it soon in a much much larger sample.

 

[Seattle1]

‘Clear-cut’ evidence Ebola drug can help fight coronavirus, says Fauci

4/30/2020

An antiviral drug used to treat Ebola has shown “positive data” in experimental treatments of coronavirus patients.

The hopeful signs announced on Wednesday from two separate trials of the drug remdesivir against Covid-19 prompted calls for the treatment to receive emergency use authorisation from the Food & Drug Administration.

Gilead says it can produce 'several million' rounds of remdesivir coronavirus treatments next year

4/30/2020

On Wednesday, Gilead released preliminary results from its clinical trial on remdesivir, showing at least 50% of the patients treated with a five-day dosage of the drug improved. The clinical trial involved 397 patients with severe cases of Covid-19. The severe study is “single-arm,” meaning it did not evaluate the drug against a control group of patients who didn’t receive the drug.

The National Institute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases also released results from its own study Wednesday. It showed Covid-19 patients who took remdesivir usually recovered after 11 days, four days faster than those who didn’t take the drug

FDA may approve emergency use authorization of Ebola drug remdesivir TODAY | Daily Mail Online

4/29/2020

The US Food and Drug Administration (FDA) may announce a decision today to allow emergency use of an antiviral drug to treat coronavirus patients.

It comes after studies showed that remdesivir, made by California-based Gilead Sciences, helped patients go from relying on oxygen to leave hospital in two weeks.

What's more, Dr Anthony Fauci, the nation's top infectious disease expert, called the results of another study conducted by the National Institutes of Health (NIH) 'very optimistic'.

[..]

This would make remdesivir the third drug approved under the EUA by the FDA after the agency approved anti-malaria drugs chloroquine and hydroxychloroquine. The drug is often used to treat Ebola patients.

Ebola drug remdesivir leads race for effective Covid-19 treatment

4/30/2020

After a series of setbacks because of disappointing outcomes in smaller drug trials, the Ebola drug remdesivir has re-emerged as the antiviral treatment with best potential to counter Covid-19.

This follows early indications from a large randomised human trial being conducted in 70 hospitals across the world. It is likely to lead to the US Food and Drug Administration giving it emergency clearance for use in US hospitals.

It coincided, however, with publication by the Lancet medical journal of a small trial in Wuhan, China, which concluded it was ineffective.

So far, the drug produced by Gilead Sciences is the best treatment option before a vaccine emerges. The US government’s leading specialist on infectious diseases Dr Tony Fauci announced there was now clear-cut evidence of remdesivir’s benefit in reducing the time to recovery with indications it may also reduce death rates.

This was the trigger to allow patients who were given a placebo to switch to taking the drug.