Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #52

[margarita25]

BBM:

I don't think it's productive to compare our countries one with another. Neither country is doing well at all. It would be far more informative to compare our countries with ones that have shown great leadership in eradicating the virus from their borders. Let's look at NZ, for example. How did that amazing prime minister get her people so united in their determination to completely clear their land of Covid? What did they do? What warnings has she spoken to countries like ours?

Dr. Mike said the same thing / Apr 17 / source / BBM:

“Michael J. Ryan: (24:40)
Didn’t hear your question very well, but I think in general you were talking about the differences in numbers in different countries in Europe and I think all countries have gone through and are in different stages of their epidemics. It is not useful to compare countries at different stages of their epidemics. I think we see countries have passed the peak or arriving at a peak and some countries are considering lifting of restrictions and some others not. I think all of those decisions had been taken carefully.

We’ve advised very clearly the countries need to make those decisions with great prudence. They need to walk back and move back and transition from measures associated with the large societal measures, lockdown, shutdowns that that needs to be done, but it needs to have in place three very important things. One, a completely empowered, educated community capable individuals who are aware of the physical distancing, the personal hygiene measures that are needed to avoid infection communities aware and involved in the process of fully empowered to act and participate as strong and acceleration and strengthening of the public health capacities for finding cases, for testing, for isolation and for quarantining of contacts.

This is exceptionally important. Our colleague Tom Frieden in the U S has likened this to, we need to start boxing the virus in, not boxing people in. I think it’s a good analogy. We need to start finding the virus because right now with the current situation, everybody is locked down in order to stop the virus spreading. The only way we get to shift away from that is finding the virus and then limiting the measures as best we can to those individuals who may have the potential to spread it or may have the potential to develop the disease.

The last part of that is having a strong enough health system that the health system has recovered enough and has enough capacity but built in that it can react and you’re seeing many, many countries are starting to bring online measured transition. Nobody is removing themselves from a lockdown type situation in a dramatic way.

You’ll see countries are phasing the response and they’re trying to look at the measurements that they’re going to use and what we do appreciate as the countries are leaving time. They’re taking some measures and they’re going to wait and see and then see if those measures can be then further extended, further loosened, further adjusted. We believe this is a prudent approach.

I think you’ll see all countries in Europe eventually doing that, but as I said, each country is in a different stage of its epidemic and we at this point I think it’s really important that we don’t start to compare countries as to where they are in the lifting of these public health and social measures. We have to look at the situation they’re in and how they’re dealing with their unique situation.”

 

[cody22]

Should The U.S. Follow China's Example Of Mandatory Quarantine Centers?

NPR recommends Virus Quarantine Internment Centers News .....moo

 

[10ofRods]

It sounds like they are taking sound precautions. And when looking at some of the statistics for that area, they haven't been hit too hard.

South Carolina:
total deaths=177
cases=5,613

If you look at it county by county, most counties had 6 to 10 total deaths.

So it seems that if everyone wore masks and gloves and stayed socially distanced, it should be OK.

Georgia was hit much harder, so I am not sure it would be advisable in their hardest hit areas there.

South Carolina may have major reporting problems. But it seems to be doing better than Georgia.

First death in California is apparently Feb 6 (I think it will go a bit earlier). South Carolina didn't report any deaths so early. Either it started into the curve later (so wait and see what happens and don't compare it to states where this disease took hold earlier) OR wait and see if they autopsy people who died before they think they got their first death.

AFAIK, South Carolina had its first death on March 16 and its second and third on March 18. So they are six weeks behind California in terms of when CoVid first struck.

There's another statistical aberration in South Carolina. Per known case, 4% are dying - but deaths overall in SC are up. Why would that be?

Further, 192 deaths reported as of this writing (with no data on the per-day death rate which is very useful in epidemiology). If this is true, then there's something about South Carolina that sets it in a completely different group than any neighboring state. People in SC are dying of something other than CoVid while people in neighboring states are dying in higher numbers of CoVid.

Hmmm. I'd like to think that SC just has natural social distancing or maybe everyone stayed at home on unemployment or perhaps no one is visiting SC at this time of year and they surely aren't traveling broadly and bringing anything back.

Or...their testing/reporting system isn't functioning like some other states.

Personally, I think it's that they didn't get cases until mid-March and if that's because they really didn't have any until then, I'd be very surprised. Is SC ordering a sample of autopsies from February 1-March 15? Any pooled samples from hospitals?

 

[Deleted member 158085]

A beloved 30-year-old middle school social studies teacher from Brooklyn has died of COVID-19 following a month-long battle, after twice being turned away for testing before eventually being diagnosed with the virus.

Rana Zoe Mungin, who had been clinging to life in the hospital for more than a month, died on Monday afternoon, her mother confirmed to ABC News.

Despite repeated pleas for help and exhibiting various symptoms of the virus, Mungin was twice denied COVID-19 testing at Brooklyn's Brookdale Hospital, according to her family.

It was the same hospital where her older sister died of an asthma attack 15 years earlier.

According to one of her friends, her condition was also dismissed as a "panic attack" by an EMT.

Mia Mungin, a registered New York City nurse, has been chronicling her sister's journey across social media for more than a month, and said "she fought a long fight but her body was too weak."

Beloved Brooklyn teacher, 30, dies of coronavirus after she was twice denied a COVID-19 test

Dismissed as a panic attack. I believe it. Studies have shown that women are more likely to have their symptoms blown off at emergency rooms.

When Doctors Downplay Women’s Health Concerns

 

[Reasonable & Just]

Should The U.S. Follow China's Example Of Mandatory Quarantine Centers?

NPR recommends Virus Quarantine Internment Centers News .....moo

Looks like some guy named Harvey Fineberg is actually recommending it. NPR is reporting on his interview as part of a series on containment ideas from former public health officials.

 

[cass523]

President Donald Trump signed an executive order Tuesday compelling the nation's meat packing plants, many of which have closed because of COVID-19 outbreaks among workers, to stay open as part of "critical infrastructure" in the United States, administration officials tell ABC News.

The five-page order is two-pronged. A senior administration official said earlier in the day, "from a (Defense Production Act) standpoint, it mandates that critical food supply operations stay open" and second, "from a liability standpoint, we will issue guidance coming from (the Department of Labor) that will provide additional liability protections."

Sen. Mike Rounds, a South Dakota Republican who rarely spurs the administration to take action, wrote to the president Monday to push him to invoke the Defense Production Act to address the "on-farm and on-ranch livestock emergency" in order to "help keep food production plants open safely."

According to a press release Tuesday from the United Foods and Commercial Workers International Union, at least 20 meatpacking and food processing workers have been confirmed dead and "at least 5,000 meatpacking workers and 1,500 food processing workers have been directly impacted by the virus."

In this April 2020, photo provided by Tyson Foods, workers wear protective masks and stand between plastic dividers at the company's Camilla, Georgia poultry processing plant.

Trump signs executive order to keep meat processing plants open under Defense Production Act

 

[MimosaMornings]

Party in the neighborhood, probably 30+ adults and kids. Outdoors in one area, touching each other, no masks, kids playing on stuff, and fireworks! To welcome lifted state restrictions!

 

[CSIDreamer]

Indiana's stay-at-home order currently expires Friday. What we know about what comes next.
Here's what you should know about the status of the Indiana stay-at-home order:

When does the stay-at-home order expire?
The order, now in its second extension, is set to expire Friday, May 1. Additional details on the future of the order will be shared late this week, Holcomb said.



Governor Holcomb said yesterday his stay-at-home order expires May 1. Today Simon announces they are opening all their malls in Indiana beginning May 2.

Hoping that Governor Holcomb will extend the stay-at-home order before it expires but at his news conference this afternoon he didn’t mention it.

Ok, thank you. I kind of assume we will be on a safer at home phase program tomorrow or Thursday. We've had the dog grooming opening and also added diagnostic testing at hospitals.

I think we might get something along the lines of phase 1.

Opening Up America Again | The White House

 

[Henry2326]

South Carolina may have major reporting problems. But it seems to be doing better than Georgia.

First death in California is apparently Feb 6 (I think it will go a bit earlier). South Carolina didn't report any deaths so early. Either it started into the curve later (so wait and see what happens and don't compare it to states where this disease took hold earlier) OR wait and see if they autopsy people who died before they think they got their first death.

AFAIK, South Carolina had its first death on March 16 and its second and third on March 18. So they are six weeks behind California in terms of when CoVid first struck.

There's another statistical aberration in South Carolina. Per known case, 4% are dying - but deaths overall in SC are up. Why would that be?

Further, 192 deaths reported as of this writing (with no data on the per-day death rate which is very useful in epidemiology). If this is true, then there's something about South Carolina that sets it in a completely different group than any neighboring state. People in SC are dying of something other than CoVid while people in neighboring states are dying in higher numbers of CoVid.

Hmmm. I'd like to think that SC just has natural social distancing or maybe everyone stayed at home on unemployment or perhaps no one is visiting SC at this time of year and they surely aren't traveling broadly and bringing anything back.

Or...their testing/reporting system isn't functioning like some other states.

Personally, I think it's that they didn't get cases until mid-March and if that's because they really didn't have any until then, I'd be very surprised. Is SC ordering a sample of autopsies from February 1-March 15? Any pooled samples from hospitals?

This is interesting....
-------------------------------
South Carolina’s Social Distancing score has dropped to an “F,” according to Unacast.

South Carolina reportedly has a “D” in reducing mobility, an “F” in there being less than 55 percent in non-essential visits, and an “F” in having less than a 40% decrease in encounters compared to the nationwide rate.

In the tri-county, Charleston County has fallen to a “C” grade, Berkeley County has a “D,” and Dorchester County has an “F”.

Colleton County has been given a “C” and Georgetown County has a “D” grade.

Unacast uses geospatial human mobility insights to show the change in non-essential visits made and average mobility (based on distance traveled) throughout the area before and during the outbreak.

Unacast compares this data to other parts of the country and considers the amount of positive COVID-19 cases that area has when determining a grade.

South Carolina is the only state in the country to receive an “F” grade.

South Carolina social distancing score drops to “F”; lowest score in the country

 

[Henry2326]

ATLANTA — A COVID-19 simulator predicts a second wave of cases in Georgia this summer based on easing restrictions. The simulator was developed by Georgia Tech, Harvard and Massachusetts General Hospital.

“We are expecting the spike to come in about two to three months after the restrictions are lifted," Turgay Ayer, a Health Systems Engineering Professor at Georgia Tech, says.

It’s very easy for this virus to accelerate and spread in the community but it is very difficult, as the WHO director said, to decelerate the spread in the absence of pharmaceutical interventions," he added.

The simulator estimates Georgia will see more than 23,000 deaths by August if restrictions were lifted in four for more weeks.

If restrictions are kept in place for 12 more weeks, the number of projected deaths drops to 1,940.

Ayer says a second wave of cases could not only affect public health, but the economy, as well.

“If we go through a second wave and the cases increase significantly, as we project based on our model, there’s a good chance that we will go back to what we are experiencing now, we may go back to these restrictions," he added.

COVID-19 simulator sees a second wave of cases in Georgia based on easing restrictions

 

[dmac55]

"If you test positive or negative for COVID-19, no matter the type of test, you still should take preventive measures to protect yourself and others."

Testing for COVID-19 | CDC
Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

 

[Henry2326]

Iowa, Governor Kim Reynolds (R) said failing to return to work would be considered a “voluntary quit,” which would terminate an employee’s benefits.

"If you're an employer and you offer to bring your employee back to work and they decide not to, that's a voluntary quit," Reynolds said Friday. "Therefore, they would not be eligible for the unemployment money."

The governor also said employers should file a report with Iowa Workforce Development if they encounter workers who refuse to come back to their jobs.

States Warn That Workers Will Lose Unemployment If They Refuse To Return To Jobs

 

[tmar]

Airborne coronavirus detected in Wuhan hospitals

Kenneth Chang
3 hrs ago
...
Adding to growing evidence that the novel coronavirus can spread through the air, scientists have identified genetic markers of the virus in airborne droplets, many with diameters smaller than one-ten-thousandth of an inch.
That had been previously demonstrated in laboratory experiments, but now Chinese scientists studying real-world conditions report that they captured tiny droplets containing the genetic markers of the virus from the air in two hospitals in Wuhan, China, where the outbreak started.

Their findings were published Monday in the journal Nature.
It remains unknown if the virus in the samples they collected was infectious, but droplets that small, which are expelled by breathing and talking, can remain aloft and be inhaled by others.

“Those are going to stay in the air floating around for at least two hours,” said Linsey Marr, a professor of civil and environmental engineering at Virginia Tech who was not involved with the Nature paper. “It strongly suggests that there is potential for airborne transmission.”

Dr. Marr and many other scientists say evidence is mounting that the coronavirus is being spread by tiny droplets known as aerosols. The World Health Organization has so far downplayed the possibility, saying that the disease is mostly transmitted through larger droplets that do not remain airborne for long, or through the touching of contaminated surfaces.
...
Even with the new findings, the issue is not settled. Although the coronavirus RNA — the genetic blueprint of the virus — was present in the aerosols, scientists do not know yet is whether the viruses remain infectious or whether the tests just detected harmless virus fragments.

“The missing piece is viable viral replication,” said Harvey V. Fineberg, who leads the Standing Committee on Emerging Infectious Diseases and 21st Century Health Threats at the National Academies of Sciences, Engineering and Medicine. “Could you culture this virus from the air?”

 

[tmar]

Science strike force warns winter could help virus spread faster

Liam Mannix
3 hrs ago
...
Australia's top researchers and science leaders have formed a strike force to help the federal government navigate the COVID-19 crisis.

The group known as the Rapid Research Information Forum has warned the virus that causes COVID-19 is likely to spread faster in cold weather and says Australia and the world could face annual winter coronavirus seasons.
...
The first question, posed by Health Minister Greg Hunt, was about the effect of winter on the virus.

Viruses spread in tiny droplets released when an infected person coughs or sneezes.

Cold, dry weather makes those droplets smaller so when another person breathes them in they go deeper into the lungs where they are more likely to cause an infection.

Lower levels of sunlight can also weaken people's natural immunity.

This could lead to a resurgence of the virus annually in winter until we have a vaccine, said Professor Tony Cunningham, director of the Westmead Institute's Centre for Virus Research and a lead author of the advice.
"The most likely time for it to recur is in winter," he said. "We don't know, but these are all things we have to be wary of."
...

 

[Sundog]

California Gov. Newsom says schools may restart as soon as late July

 

[KALI]

In California. Last night's sales at our restaurant were $120.00
Our normal Bill's are close to $30,000. Per month.
We've still received-0- help from our government.
Not the 10k bond, not even the $1200. Each
Our 1st quarter taxes are due now.
We will not come even close.

 

[Deleted member 158085]

I was browsing the Libby app (library app for downloading library eBooks and audiobooks) and a title caught my attention. Someone already has a COVID book available. It’s Coping With Coronavirus, A Psychological Toolkit by Dr. Brendan Kelly.

I’m not interested right now, but wanted you all to know it’s available through Libby and Overdrive with a library card.

 

[Midgie2]

This may be a dumb question but I’m going to ask anyway. Some states have “hot zones”, or big cities, but the rest of the state is more rural and populated. But the whole state is going by the same rules for stay at home. Why can’t the reopenings be handled on a County by County basis? Or some type of radius “zone” away from the major cities?

 

[Reasonable & Just]

In California. Last night's sales at our restaurant were $120.00
Our normal Bill's are close to $30,000. Per month.
We've still received-0- help from our government.
Not the 10k bond, not even the $1200. Each
Our 1st quarter taxes are due now.
We will not come even close.

I am so sorry. I know my sorry doesn't help you. I have no idea why it is so hard for genuine small businesses to get some help. It's making me sick to realize that the 1st of the month is Friday, and that it's looming large for many.

 

[RANCH]

In California. Last night's sales at our restaurant were $120.00
Our normal Bill's are close to $30,000. Per month.
We've still received-0- help from our government.
Not the 10k bond, not even the $1200. Each
Our 1st quarter taxes are due now.
We will not come even close.

What is your plan if the State of California lets restaurants open up but puts severe restrictions on the number of guests that can be inside at a time?

Would your business survive for an extended period of time if you can only serve maybe 25 or 50 percent of your normal capacity?

I'm interested in your thoughts on this because even if you do get a loan, what happens in six weeks from when you get it and it runs out but restrictions are in place?