Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #64

[KALI]

We cannot lock up for 6 more months. The financial devastation would bring us to our knees. Moo

It's not forever. The next six months will be tough but we can all get through it if we work together.

And when the mask mandates don't work, what's left - back to locking everyone up? For how long, this time? I never hear anyone openly and clearly advocating shutting everything down for however long it takes to eradicate the virus, but that seems to be exactly what many here want (once we eliminate the "wishes" like contact tracing),

 

[beatrixpotter]

Potentially 10 years. No one knows. Maybe only 3 years. No one knows. Too many variables. Maybe never (I'm always optimistic but most people my age are not expecting to see the end of this). At least, the ones I know IRL.

If it really takes 70% of us getting CoVid to get to herd immunity and 5% of us get it each year - well...the math is not too difficult. More people will keep entering the age bracket where getting CoVid would be required - let's say, age 35-40 at the latest...overall population would decline, right now 10% of Americans are dying if they get CoVid.

Hard to factor in those variables, and some people will continue to be risk-adverse and not get CoVid "on time."

So...if 15,000,000 Americans get CoVid in the next year (and 150,000 die next year), that leaves 315,000,000 still to go. With 150,000 or so dying every year.

If it's only 5% die (because all people 50 and over and with any underlying condition stay home - about 40% of us), then 75,000 annual deaths (that seems really optimistic), an entire group of people shut up, working from home if possible, and CoVid still as much of a threat for hotspots as ever.

You can't make children get CoVid, for example. You can't make vulnerable adults go outside. So, there will be a plague-ridden class of people (who apparently are okay with that) and the others - 20% are under age 20 (at least) and they will all grow up to have CoVid too...one day.

Unless we find a vaccine. If CoVid remains as viral as it does right now (and it has increased its transmissibility one time already), it'll take 7-10 for 60% to be at herd immunity; immunity doesn't seem to be transferred at birth; no studies yet on breastfeeding OR on how long immunity lasts.

If immunity is as shallow as for other similar viruses, then this deadly disease (more prevelant than tuberculosis and more deadly) is here to stay.

Good times? No.

Entirely different, morose times - just like Medieval Times. And different classes of people - those who stay out of the melée by wearing PPE or other means, and everyone else. Took like a hundred years to bring pestilence under control in the 14th and 15th centuries.

If we do get a vaccine, thank Science and Medicine.

Oh, my gosh, that's brutal. I've struggled since January with being able to think too far ahead on how this pans out. Couple this with the inevitable economic disaster looming and this is seriously overwhelming and depressing.

 

[Lilibet]

This is one summer that kids are experiencing "real life" like never before. I've seen kids take responsibility for their schoolwork even when no one was there to guide them. I've seen them playing tic-tac-toe with residents on the windows of the long care home. I've seen them learn about racial prejudice and how to speak out for justice. I've seen them learn how to set aside their own activites and spend time making little notes for seniors who can't get out, and zoom with vulnerable classmates who need encouragement. I've seen them learn that wearing a mask helps protect people they don't even know. I've seen them make posters to wave from their cars thanking front line workers. I've seen them working in gardens to do their part during what might become a shaky food supply. I've seen them fix things that get broken instead of buying a replacement.

Oh, this IS real life. Kids are growing.

Fantastic post!

And kids who have experienced the “real life” of the pandemic in the selfless ways you describe will emerge with greater maturity and empathy for others...as better people overall. What kids aren’t able to realize yet is that parties at the beach are never truly lasting or meaningful memories in the grand scheme of life. Neither are missed proms and athletic events. Other events like graduations experienced with pandemic adaptations will be remembered fondly in years to come as a unique experience that binds the class of 2020 together always.

Kids may not appreciate this right now, and I feel awful for them. But in the long run those who acted unselfishly will have the best memories that will last their entire lives and that they will have no regrets.

 

[PingTheRouter]

things are looking worse down here in victoria after we almost eradicated the virus a month a go

we aee almost back where we started months a go, there are rumours about a new lockdown coming and might be announced in an hour

have no problems with a new lockdown whatever works to stop this virus again

 

[mickey2942]

Actually SARS-Coronavirus-1 is a good analogue. Comparatively speaking.

And I don't think anyone here has posted a single thing about corona viruses in general, from a scientific point of view. The people who make those kinds of comparisons are out there - but they're not posting here.

But we don't have to "stick to" one pandemic to understand human behavior under stress. Or when faced with epidemics/pandemics.

I highly recommend A Distant Mirror by Barbara Tuchman, which shows how similar our own society is to the societies that experienced Bubonic Plague and how similar the divisions and behaviors are.

Completely out of context to the OP. Which is the problem with quoting, without context.

This virus has not been attributed to animal agriculture. That is the context. It has been attributed to the "Wet Market" in China. Which has no similarities to animal related agriculture in the United States.

People may not like industrial animal production. But it did not create this Coronavirus. That was the subject.

 

[I'm Just Here]

My son is home for a weekend visit and I asked if the extra cloth masks I gave him were working ok at work. He then said no then pulled one out of his pants pocket that he had been wearing because it's the only one he says fits best. He has been putting it in his pocket to leave work and wears it the next day all week long! Washes it on Saturdays, ugg! I wanted to cry but was half laughing at the same time. I had no clue he was doing that. We had a talk and he still thinks I am a bit over cautious. Good grief

 

[margarita25]

Informative broadcast with good graphs and charts. Dr. Sanjay Gupta also talks about the hospital capacity situation, referencing Italy. This video also shows how testing is still an issue.

 

[margarita25]

According to this video, there are younger people ending up in the ICU. A nurse talks about a young person with no underlying conditions “gasping for air”. Dr. Birx says “what we’re seeing is an increased hospitalization of twenty to forty year olds”. This is what they’re seeing at Baylor St. Luke’s medical center. A doctor warns young people not to take it for granted they won’t see a serious illness, that he is seeing this first hand:

—-

I’m seeing more and more young people coming on the news and warning people to take it seriously.

 

[Midgie2]

Well, you all have made some good points. In regards to the future...yes, this virus SUCKS, but we still have today, and that is more than some.
Don’t lose HOPE!

 

[margarita25]

I'm very late to the virtual party, but congratulations Scotland for getting things under control. Kudos to you!

Did anyone watch the 60 minutes program on CBS last night? Just curious as to what the investigation turned up regarding the faulty antibody tests.

Cheers to Scotland and @gregjrichards - Yay!!!!

 

[margarita25]

CDC says U.S. has 'way too much virus' to control pandemic as cases surge across country



So...what's plan B?

From the above link:

“"We're not in the situation of New Zealand or Singapore or Korea where a new case is rapidly identified and all the contacts are traced and people are isolated who are sick and people who are exposed are quarantined and they can keep things under control," she said in an interview with The Journal of the American Medical Association's Dr. Howard Bauchner. "We have way too much virus across the country for that right now, so it's very discouraging."“

[...]

“"This is really the beginning," Schuchat said of the U.S.'s recent surge in new cases. "I think there was a lot of wishful thinking around the country that, hey it's summer. Everything's going to be fine. We're over this and we are not even beginning to be over this. There are a lot of worrisome factors about the last week or so."“

[...]

“The sheer size of the U.S. and the fact that the virus is hitting different parts of the country at different times complicates the public response here compared with other countries, Schuchat said. South Korea, for example, was able to concentrate their response on the southern city of Daegu, for a time, and contact tracers were quickly deployed when new cases were later found in the capital Seoul.

"What we have in the United States, it's hard to describe because it's so many different outbreaks," Schuchat said. "There was a wave of incredible acceleration, intense interventions and control measures that have brought things down to a much lower level of circulation in the New York City, Connecticut, New Jersey area. But in much of the rest of the country, there's still a lot of virus. And in lots of places, there's more virus circulating than there was."

The coronavirus has proven to be the kind of virus that Schuchat and her colleagues always feared would emerge, she said. She added that it spreads easily, no one appears to have immunity to it and it's in fact "stealthier than we were expecting."

"While you plan for it, you think about it, you have that human denial that it's really going to happen on your watch, but it's happening," she said. "As much as we've studied [the 1918 flu pandemic], I think what we're experiencing as a global community is really bad and it's similar to that 1918 transformational experience."“

 

[BHughes]

Flu virus with 'pandemic potential' found in China

A new strain of flu that has the potential to become a pandemic has been identified in China by scientists.

 

[Lilibet]

Oregon:

Governor Brown announced today that starting Wednesday July 1, masks will be required in indoor public spaces for both employees and customers alike. As noted below, wearing masks may be the key to keeping businesses open and not having to roll back reopening. Ironically, protestors at the capitol in Salem in early May, pushing for reopening, were for the most part, not wearing masks. Governor Brown started reopening in phases in mid-May and now, to stay open she is requiring masks. It will be interesting to see how this is received. Based on comments on the story and on FB, not well. They wanted to open and get back to work, but aren’t willing to do one small thing to help businesses stay open.

Quoting:
“From the beginning of the reopening process, I have said that reopening comes with the risk of seeing an increase in COVID-19 cases beyond our health systems’ capacity to test, trace, and isolate them,” said Brown. “Over the last month, we have seen the disease spread at an alarming rate in both urban and rural counties. The upcoming July 4 holiday weekend is a critical point for Oregon in this pandemic, and we can all make a difference."

Brown referenced the latest coronavirus modeling report provided to the Oregon Health Authority, which showed considerable potential for spread of the virus based on data from the past several weeks of reopening.
<snip>

“I do not want to have to close down businesses again like other states are now doing," Brown said. "If you want your local shops and restaurants to stay open, then wear a face covering when out in public."

BBM

video at link
Face masks required statewide in Oregon starting this week

 

[dmac55]

<modsnip: Quoted post was removed>

"12 days after coming down with COVID-19 like symptoms he dropped dead in his parent's living room."

24-year-old with no underlying health conditions dies 12-days after COVID-19 symptoms | FOX 2 Detroit
24-year-old with no underlying health conditions dies 12-days after COVID-19 symptoms

 

[Lilibet]

Oregon again...

In my rural county in southern Oregon and in the adjoining one, there has been a spike in COVID-19 cases in the past week. I wondered why I was seeing this sudden daily increase, but now I know. Mostly from TWO private parties!

From the article:
Contact tracing from many of the recent Rogue Valley cases have a culprit in common, officials said — a combination of travel and socializing without proper precautions. In some cases, people have traveled to the area from higher-risk states and then mingled with local groups, quickly spreading the virus.

Many of the most recent cases have been linked to just two private parties that took place the weekend before last, each with 15 to 30 participants. Contact tracing related to those parties is still under way.
<snip>

Jackson County health officer Dr. Jim Shames said that he does not advise social gatherings at all, particularly if proper precautions aren't being followed.

Both counties anticipate a continued spike in cases. Over the past several weeks, new cases have skewed toward the younger population and there have been fewer hospitalizations — but that is likely to change. If cases to continue to spread, Dr. Shames said, there is a higher change that it will reach more vulnerable groups.

Josephine County health officer Dr. David Candelaria said that the new statewide mask requirement announced by Governor Brown on Monday has merit, and he hopes that people "adopt new behavior and not stay entrenched in old behavior." Dr. Shames agreed, expressing his surprise at how few people are taking face coverings seriously.

BBM

Jackson and Josephine county health officials discuss the source of new COVID-19 cases

 

[Sillybilly]

Bumping an excerpt from Tricia's post when she set up the Covid19 forum:

"THIS THREAD IS FOR PEOPLE WHO ARE TAKING THE VIRUS SERIOUSLY AND WANT TO POST ABOUT FACTS AND ABOUT SOLUTIONS."

 

[SouthAussie]

things are looking worse down here in victoria after we almost eradicated the virus a month a go

we aee almost back where we started months a go, there are rumours about a new lockdown coming and might be announced in an hour

have no problems with a new lockdown whatever works to stop this virus again

Well, seems that 10 Melbourne 'postcodes' have gone into a specified type of lockdown now. For 4 weeks. Starting tomorrow at midnight.

928 people have refused to be tested.

And all Victorians are not allowed to travel to any other state except NSW. I heard Gladys Berejiklian (NSW Premier) on the radio saying that there is no point in restricting their entry into NSW because there are too many border towns where the residents spend a lot of time on both sides of the state border.

Plus many Victorian retirement homes have gone back into lockdown to protect their residents.


"The Chief Health Officer has advised me to reimpose restrictions in line with stage 3 so they will be stay-at-home orders except for four reasons to leave your home.
"These orders will be effective from 11:59pm tomorrow night and they will run for four weeks until 29 July.
"There will only be four reasons that you are permitted to leave your house and only if you really have to.
"For work or school, for care or care giving, for daily exercise, for food and other essentials. They are the acceptable reasons to leave but only if you need to."
Live: Andrews says almost 1,000 people refused to have COVID-19 tests as Melbourne suburbs locked down

The 10 Melbourne postcodes to go into coronavirus lockdown

 

[Lilibet]

Don't worry too much over this. Europeans have never thought highly of Americans and probably never will, that's just a fact and long before Donald Trump was ever President. I have a very well rounded group of friends from the UK, Ireland, and Scotland and they have always talked crap about us. We are friends and have been for over 25 years BUT there will always be a difference, they put themselves very high above us so do not feel too bad over this. They are LOVING this, finally the pompous Americans brought down a notch. It's probably for the best that we can't travel for a long time, we'd never get a moments rest for even a pint without being given *advice* on all our flaws.

No offense to Europeans here but you know what I'm talking about.

IMO

Seriously? I think someone needs new friends! I can’t imagine being friends with people who are “LOVING” that this is happening to others and who “don’t too feel bad” about the mess this or any country is in. If they “talk crap” about people of any country they are ignorant bigots and it’s just as bigoted and offensive to describe Europeans this way. Birds of a feather?
JMO

 

[tresir2012]

They addressed hospitalization, as well, on Thursday. Every metric was expected to rise. But, whatever - sending home a dozen geezers spread out at the corner tavern will turn down the online hectoring by 99%, even though it won't do anything about all of these bodies that I still haven't had occasion to step over.

If your taverns are still open and you are spread out, as you say, then good for you that you are still supporting them. Ours (2 pub/restaurants) are going to reopen at some point, subject to restrictions I'm sure and we will support them as we want to see them stay in business.

 

[tresir2012]

Respectively, another view.
"Covid isn't the only thing in the world" - I totally agree! Since Covid isn't the only thing in the world is the very reason so many rational, logical folks choose to isolate and take every precaution they can in their own situation so they can enjoy the world once this threat has passed. There is so much life out there! I for one, choose to alter my lifestyle temporarily to protect my life, my friends and my precious family's. I want to enjoy all the big things; graduations, celebrations, marriages, births, holidays. I want to enjoy the little things that bring me joy - going to the theatre for live performances, live music venues, casual dining out with family and friends, all the spring through summer fairs and festivals, the beach, the mountains, a leisure day shopping and dining out with friends. I miss that!
"the kids that are losing a summer - times that are supposed to be the best of their lives" - depends totally on the parents. I know one of my daughters lives in one of the worst hit counties in VA has made the most amazing memories with her family during this time. They have found beautiful parks that have few people and have discovered our nation's beauty so close to home that they had not explored until this year although having lived in the area for past 10 years. They were too busy traveling internationally and discovering the world and had no idea what was within driving distance of their home. The pictures they share and the stories the grandkids have to tell me every single weekend of their discoveries is so uplifting and pride just takes over my heart to see how they have thrived during this time.
"exhibiting signs of harm to their mental health" - anxiety over the unknown is not necessarily an unhealthy symptom. Anxiety can make us face reality and take necessary precautions. Anxiety is a normal and often healthy emotion.
Life is full of changes, depends on how we handle those changes as to the quality of life we live.
ALL
JMO
MOO

Your daughter is very lucky. The whole of Wales was restricted to a 5 mile radius. I live on the coast so we were restricted to a 5 mile semi circle.