Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #74

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I completely agree. I'm here in Indiana just watching our positive numbers continue blasting. But deaths, ICU numbers, and ventilators are staying low. Jmo

Same in many places. While the world's deaths continue to inch up, in the US, we're now watching CoVid move through a new demographic, one which is less likely to die or even to be hospitalized.

I sure hope they follow their self-quarantine instructions when they get home (from what I can tell, many of them are not - there were CV+ youtubers at Disneyworld.)
 
More than 60 players withdraw from 2020 NFL season over coronavirus concerns
Players had until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday to decide and after the deadline passed, a spokesperson for the NFL said that out of 2,880 players, 66 players chose to opt out.

MLB’s coronavirus problem is turning into a scheduling nightmare

It’s unclear how MLB plans to deal with the issue. Everything is a mess, and every game that gets delayed compounds these issues and makes it all worse. An intervention will be needed unless things can return to normal immediately, but there’s little indication that will coming.
 
200 Cars Stopped On First Day Of NYC Quarantine Checkpoints
Two hundred drivers were stopped at city bridges and tunnels on Thursday, the first day of a new initiative to spread word of New York's quarantine rules for travelers from high infection states, Mayor Bill de Blasio said. "That number is going to grow greatly this weekend," de Blasio warned. "These quarantines must be honored for the good of all," he added. The mayor said the new checkpoints, which is being run by the city's sheriff office, would directly affect thousands of people traveling into the state, although he said that the message would reach many more. In addition to officers manning bridge and tunnel crossings, public health officials and staff members from the mayor's office spent the day handing out informational leaflets at Penn Station.
 
I was reading an article about essential workers (at the grocery store) and how nasty customers can be when asked to wear a mask. A grocery worker said something to a customer like you will be preventing someone else from getting the virus if you wear the mask, and the customer said he didn't care about anybody else. That statement led me to believe that the strategy to get people to mask up has been all wrong: Let's face it, humans are self centered: some more, some less: but the most important thing to a person is him or herself. So, I think the strategy should have been that the mask prevents the virus for the person who wears the mask as well as the other person: but that is not what the message has been. the message was clear: the mask is to prevent the other person from getting the virus if you wear a mask. Recently public health workers have concluded that the mask does provide protection for the person who wears it as well. I wish these epidemiologists would change their message to indicate that the mask protects the person who wears it. The other day on MSNBC epidemiologists again said we should wear masks to protect others and didn't even mention that it can protect the person who wears it. That is the wrong message.

I know in Asian countries where mask use was already commonplace, it was worn when the wearer had a cold and didn’t want to spread it. I had thought it was the opposite (wearer wearing it to NOT get sick), and someone set me straight on that. This was regarding Japan—it was decades ago when I asked. So, at least in Japan, it was being worn out of regard for others.

When I read what you wrote that the customer said he didn’t care about anyone else, it reminded me of that old episode of Twilight Zone called “Button, Button”. Anyone remember that one? If you haven’t and don’t want to know the twist ending, read no further.

A couple is left by an odd man with a plain box with a button on top that can be pushed. They can get rich if they push the button—BUT if they do, someone will die. When they ask who will die, he assures them it will be “someone you don’t know”. Odd man leaves, and couple argue on the ethics of causing someone to die. What if it is a newborn baby? What if it’s just an old man about to die, anyway. Either way, no one will know it was because we pushed the button. The wife pushes the button. Odd man returns the next day with a suitcase of money. They’re rich! Odd man takes the box. Couple asks what happens to the box now. Odd man replies it will be reset and offered to someone else: someone you don’t know.
 
More than 60 players withdraw from 2020 NFL season over coronavirus concerns
Players had until 4 p.m. ET on Thursday to decide and after the deadline passed, a spokesperson for the NFL said that out of 2,880 players, 66 players chose to opt out.

MLB’s coronavirus problem is turning into a scheduling nightmare

It’s unclear how MLB plans to deal with the issue. Everything is a mess, and every game that gets delayed compounds these issues and makes it all worse. An intervention will be needed unless things can return to normal immediately, but there’s little indication that will coming.

I have to say no surprise here- i will say it now: The NFL will not go forward for an entire season. The contact in football will not allow a season to continue. I guess even
baseball is having their problems and there is not much contact, on the field anyway.
Here is the bottom line: you put a bunch of people (in this case athletes) together in a clubhouse, in a dressing room: then they go home, leave the stadium, go to dinner, go to bars, blah blah blah. what does anyone think will happen. I want to shout to people
THIS IS A PANDEMIC- DO YOU NOT UNDERSTAND WHAT THAT MEANS?????
 
Mexican TV networks to provide home learning for students as schools stay shut

I don't know why the United States doesn't utilize public TV, PBS, to start doing "TV school". Or use local public tv stations. That eliminates the issues of no internet or computers. And seriously, what family with kids doesn't have tv access in the United States?!

Um...we don't all have access. In Los Angeles, many people do not have cable and just watch their favorite shows (often in Spanish) on youtube - or they have only that one package (Spanish language TV or Korean language TV)

Many of us have cut the cable.

We've cared for our granddaughters without TV for several years. Neither of them watches TV (their TV's are used mainly for gaming and for family viewing). PBS can be found on Apple TV, but there's very little live broadcasting.

However, that doesn't mean that the US couldn't set up a shared broadcast/streaming educational TV system. Federal government has withdrawn most support, though, so it's mostly donations from people like us.

There are serious issues with the content as well. While PBS is great for little kids, the subjects of middle school and higher (like algebra) are very difficult to broadcast and have the station stay in business. Chemistry, physics, actual US history without costumes, sociology, psychology - all considered "boring" by the regular viewing public. English literature isn't all that popular even at physical universities - and it's hard to teach writing via TV.

Anthropology works pretty well when taught by video and other distance methods (so does Art History). Any highly visual field works. We don't do a lot of number crunching in undergrad anthropology. But students need the kinesthetic part (teacher moving around, drawing on the board, passing things around, etc) to keep their eyes from glazing over.

Here's a sample of a freshman college level stat lecture:


And here's middle school English:


Everything also has to be closed captioned - and one thing that's cool about Youtube is that they can do it automatically plus you can speed it up or slow it down (and even fiddle with the colors if need be).

The thing that really prevents this though, is the requirement that states have. They do not pay teachers for broadcasting their lessons - they only pay when the student shows up. So there has to be some way to ascertain that the student is actually there.

Which brings me to the question many of us are pondering. Do we *require* the student to show their face inside Zoom/Canvas? Or is it enough that there's just their name...in a little text box and they could be out surfing for all I know? Because I know students. And I know they sign in and then just go about their daily life.
Not really okay with me, on a regular day.

I'm getting lots and lots of push back on this issue from students, though. K-12 is likely going to require faces to be seen and for good reason.

But what does a family do with 4 simultaneous learners? Is there enough bandwidth and enough devices (forget computers - hardly any family has 4 laptops IMO). California is distributing 1 million more tablets to students on top of what was already distributed, but as a teacher, I can only imagine the chaos in a house where each kid is supposed to be "in school" (in line of sight - doing/watching stuff) alongside their sibs, the family pets, the baby - and some adult caretaker.
 
RAPE SUSPECT WHO WAS FREED DUE TO CORONAVIRUS KILLS HIS ACCUSER IN ALEXANDRIA, POLICE SAY
Ibrahim E. Bouiachi was indicted on rape charges last year. After being released due to the pandemic, police say he shot and killed his accuser.

Rape suspect who was freed due to coronavirus kills his accuser in Alexandria, police say

This is horrific. Yet, I'm glad you posted it. We're not letting sex offenders out in my county - but we are allowing many DV arrestees out on no bail. :mad:
 
This is horrific. Yet, I'm glad you posted it. We're not letting sex offenders out in my county - but we are allowing many DV arrestees out on no bail. :mad:

That is horrible: makes me so sad for her and so angry- letting these criminals out due to Covid, is, well, criminal. She probably felt safe and then they let this dirt bag out--
 
Citing COVID-19 clusters, Massachusetts postpones second step of Phase 3 reopening ‘indefinitely'

more at link
Citing recent large parties that fly in the face of the COVID-19 restrictions, Gov. Charlie Baker said Friday Massachusetts will indefinitely postpone entering the second step of Phase 3.

The Republican governor said Friday that the state would not only postpone this segment of the reopening but also ramp up enforcement, creating a multi-agency coalition with police officials to crack down on violations of the COVID-19 regulations that are supposed to limit community transmissions.
 
Hundreds of complaints pour into Mass. COVID-19 business reporting line

More at link
The state Department of Labor Services received more than 900 emails and calls from residents across the state in the reporting line’s first week. The reports ranged from employees raising the alarm about coworkers not quarantining to customers reporting workers who didn’t wear their masks over their noses — or in some cases, wear them at all — to opponents of the COVID-19 restrictions lambasting the governor.
 
<modsnip>

But the facts are the facts. The US is averaging more than 1000 deaths daily and has been for the past month.

If we go back to average around 1500 (which we probably will if you look at the way the data are running in the states that are newly linear in their increases as opposed to the states that have curtailed CoVid), it's entirely possible we'll average 1200 or even 1400-1500 deaths per day for the next few weeks, making it easy to hit the number you mentioned.

<modsnip>

Well I just don't get why the states have not got a handle on it. Some have done well and some haven't. They are all following the same CDC guidance presumably. I agree the 1000 per day most likely will be exceeded for the next couple of weeks, but surely/hopefully not until November. MOO.
 
Well I just don't get why the states have not got a handle on it. Some have done well and some haven't. They are all following the same CDC guidance presumably. I agree the 1000 per day most likely will be exceeded for the next couple of weeks, but surely/hopefully not until November. MOO.
The US doesn’t have a handle on it for many reasons but one huge reason is socializing IMO. Letting your friends and family around you is normal (God forbid face masks.) Closeness = safety. They wouldn’t, couldn’t infect me is their opinion. IMO

ETA: if sports were active the stands would be packed.
 
The US doesn’t have a handle on it for many reasons but one huge reason is socializing IMO. Letting your friends and family around you is normal (God forbid face masks.) Closeness = safety. They wouldn’t, couldn’t infect me is their opinion. IMO

ETA: if sports were active the stands would be packed.

Its doesn't seem to be all states though.
 
Here's CDC's forecast of deaths.

Coronavirus Disease 2019 (COVID-19)

Observed and forecasted new and total reported COVID-19 deaths as of August 3, 2020.

Interpretation of Forecasts of New and Total Deaths
  • This week CDC received forecasts of national COVID-19 deaths over the next 4 weeks from 34 modeling groups. Those forecasts predict:
    • The number of new COVID-19 deaths reported each week (32 forecasts), which indicates how reported deaths are likely to increase or decrease in the coming weeks
    • The total number of COVID-19 deaths reported by the end of each week (33 forecasts), which helps us understand the likely overall impact of the pandemic in the coming weeks
Of the 34 modeling groups, 31 provided forecasts of both new and total deaths, one provided forecasts of new deaths only, and two provided forecasts of total deaths only.

  • This week’s national ensemble forecast predicts that weekly reports of new COVID-19 deaths may decrease over the next 4 weeks, with 4,500 to 10,600 new deaths reported during the week ending August 29. The ensemble forecast predicts that 175,000 to 190,000 total COVID-19 deaths will be reported by August 29.
  • State-level ensemble forecasts predict that the number of reported new deaths per week may increase over the next four weeks in Hawaii and Puerto Rico and may decrease in Florida, Mississippi, New Mexico, the Northern Mariana Islands, Ohio, Texas, Vermont, and the Virgin Islands.
More data at link.
 
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