A little project on Sturgis.
I had some help with this. We watched live streaming from 3 cameras, and live streamed videos from 4 campgrounds, 6 bars and dozens of people just walking around. We were able to get a good sample of license plates and are doing the same thing again today.
I also reached out to some business owners on a few platforms and got about 10 responses.
The 250,000 number may materialize. That number is for a 10 day period. One business owner said that the first weekend is always a bit slower and indeed, there was less live entertainment. It's already twice as crowded today, Sunday, than yesterday as people have to drive quite a ways to get to Sturgis. Some people arrived much earlier, but many visitors had not yet arrived yesterday. Two business owners said they thought it would be lower than 250,000. Last year, it was estimated at 500,000 so if it's half, that does cut down risk. If it is only 100-150,000, so much the better (in terms of CoVid, not business).
I compared yesterday's videos to last year's videos, to get a sense of what was different.
No masks. Out of a sample of about 1000 people that I actually counted, there was 1 mask. My partners found the same stat (or no masks at all). This did not include employees at businesses.
But, here are the things that may mitigate an outbreak of CoVid, see what you think:
- Live music is now at outdoor venues (last year, they used a big indoor venue in addition to outdoor venues)
- There are several bars whose interior space resembles a warehouse or hangar, with overhead fans and all outdoor doors and windows open. There was plenty of room for social distancing. Most people were able to employ that tactic if they wished.
- Tables and barstools are further apart in most places.
- Circles on the ground for outdoor venues were drawn so that people could remain in their "bubbles."
- Employees at some businesses are wearing masks.
- Some indoor vendors moved outdoors under tent-like awnings.
- Hand sanitizer was visible at the entrance to most of the bars (and, I'd assume, some other businesses)
- Campgrounds were largely inhabited by people with self-contained RV's and trailers, obviating the need to use public restrooms.
- One campground host said that there were way fewer people and that some people wanted to park "away from the action" in places where they weren't as close to other people. This was easy to do, the campgrounds are huge.
Here are some concerning variables:
- Average age of people on the street looks to be around 60, maybe older.
- Many people older than 65.
- Way more males than females.
- Many overweight and obese people.
- Air quality on streets in town is poor, continuous output of particulate matter from cycles
- People didn't always use social distancing even when it was possible
- Two way pedestrian traffic and some completely non-distanced lines to get into some businesses
- People sharing drinks in bars and waitresses pouring shots directly into mouths of consumers via squirt bottle devices that come very close to and possibly touch lips
It's fairly warm in Sturgis, lots of sun. My own perspective is that CoVid is rarely transmitted outdoors and out of a sample of about 400 people taken yesterday afternoon, none of the walkers went into a store. Many people of course weren't pedestrians at all, but rode round and round Main Street over and over on their bikes.
License plates were mostly from Wyoming, Montana, Wisconsin, Idaho, Nebraska and Colorado. There were, however, a few from Washington, Oregon and California, which surprised me. Campground owner said more people from California, Arizona, Minnesota, Michigan and Utah would arrive today. He also said that they had reservations from people in Florida, the Carolinas, Missouri, Mississippi and Texas for people arriving Monday-Wednesday. Those are long trips and would obviously involve public restrooms, probably convenience stores (a vector), and gas stations (a vector).
Idaho began to see a rise in cases around the third week of June, which peaked on July 26. It was a very steep increase. In the first week of June, new diagnosed cases sat at around 50-60 per day. On July 26, there were
913 cases . Fourth of July travel to and through Idaho clearly played some role. The deaths from that rise in cases are still being recorded and have not yet peaked. It's almost exactly the 6% death rate per case that we're seeing worldwide.
Today's observations: most of the workers at the outdoor booths that I've seen so far are masked. Crowds are way larger than yesterday, but there are a few more masks. I stopped counting after about 300 people, but observed 6 masks, more than yesterday. People are taking business cards, trinkets, and flyers from those handing them out on Main Street. More people are carrying merchandise bags, and in the part of town without outdoor vending I can see many going in and out of stores. People are handing their cell phones to others for group pictures, not sure how frequent that is. More women on the street, many solo, perhaps as it is still bright day light and it is very crowded.
I have tons of questions of course, which I can't answer. Can CoVid be transmitted by ungloved handling of plastic bags from stores? Will the 6 foot tall people be more vulnerable? I wish we could know whether people who go into the small indoor bars fare worse than those going into the huge warehouse style bars/venues. What about the rally itself? I watched last year's events (snippets) and there's tons of touching, 2-5 people jointly pushing cycles or messing with cycles, heads together, bodies touching, many were shirtless. I don't think CoVid spreads through sweat, but I sure do wonder about its persistence on damp human bodies.
Anyway, if a person were determined to have a safer Sturgis experience this year, they could surely have one. It amazes me how many old people are there and how many older obese people are out without masks. The people with masks, today, look to be under 40. Go figure. Maybe they have symptoms?
I'm going to reach out to some of the social media types who are tweeting and youtubing and see what they observed, as obviously, they are seeing way more than I am. I don't get the feeling that people are randomly meeting up with strangers on the street or in bars, for lively conversation (which was clearly happening last year). At one bar, I saw quite a few people shaking hands - but also a couple of men who preferred fist bumps.
While typing, I saw 1 more mask...on a man who appears around age 30. Why aren't the older people wearing masks?
Meanwhile, over in Jackson, WY, there are way more motorcycles in the traffic flow, heading toward Yellowstone (and then probably to Sturgis, as it is every year). ID, CA, NV, AZ plates as well as NM, UT and of course WY.
