Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #75

[ZoriahNZ]

COVID study: Kids with mild to no symptoms more contagious than adults

A new study adds to growing evidence that children are not immune to COVID-19 and may even play a larger role in community spread than previously thought.

Researchers at Massachusetts General Hospital and Mass General Hospital for Children found that among 192 children, 49 tested positive for the coronavirus and had significantly higher levels of virus in their airways than hospitalized adults in intensive care units, according to the study published Thursday in the Journal of Pediatrics.

 

[tresir2012]

It is unlikely that the students will die from Covid, the death rate for under 30 is less than 3%. However, the death rate for those over 55, is close to 90%. Especially if you have any underlying conditions.

Yeah, I wouldn't want to be teaching now.
Population-level COVID-19 mortality risk for non-elderly individuals overall and for non-elderly individuals without underlying diseases in pandemic epicenters

I haven't found the reference to 90% death rate for over 55"s that you mention. Could you clarify your comment?

These are the Results and Conclusion section from your link.

Results
Individuals with age <65 account for 4.5–11.2% of all COVID-19 deaths in European countries and Canada, 8.3–22.7% in the US locations, and were the majority in India and Mexico. People <65 years old had 30- to 100-fold lower risk of COVID-19 death than those ≥65 years old in 11 European countries and Canada, 16- to 52-fold lower risk in US locations, and less than 10-fold in India and Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death as of June 17, 2020 for people <65 years old in high-income countries ranged from 10 (Germany) to 349 per million (New Jersey) and it was 5 per million in India and 96 per million in Mexico. The absolute risk of COVID-19 death for people ≥80 years old ranged from 0.6 (Florida) to 17.5 per thousand (Connecticut). The COVID-19 mortality rate in people <65 years old during the period of fatalities from the epidemic was equivalent to the mortality rate from driving between 4 and 82 miles per day for 13 countries and 5 states, and was higher (equivalent to the mortality rate from driving 106–483 miles per day) for 8 other states and the UK. People <65 years old without underlying predisposing conditions accounted for only 0.7–3.6% of all COVID-19 deaths in France, Italy, Netherlands, Sweden, Georgia, and New York City and 17.7% in Mexico.

Conclusions
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic.

 

[tresir2012]

I would hope so, but at the same time, it's possible that people who attended the rally tended to be those who were in denial about the pandemic and how to get it under control, and they may not be providing contacts.

Possibly. But anyone testing positive from them would be discovered anyway. Unfortunately that does not help any subsequent spread. Perhaps attendees took advantage of the testing locations at the rally? We will just have to wait as we did with the Mt Rushmore rally. I was astounded at the count of 460k attendees over the 10 days.

 

[tresir2012]

Indiana US
506 new positive
14 new deaths 8/14-8/18
7.7% 7 day positivity rate

ISDH - Novel Coronavirus: Indiana COVID-19 Dashboard

Indiana 1.0 on RTLive

Indiana Rt

Well done Indiana.

 

[musicaljoke]

Possibly. But anyone testing positive from them would be discovered anyway. Unfortunately that does not help any subsequent spread. Perhaps attendees took advantage of the testing locations at the rally? We will just have to wait as we did with the Mt Rushmore rally. I was astounded at the count of 460k attendees over the 10 days.

I would hope that those testing positive from them would be discovered, but what a shame that there would be anyone at all testing positive from them. It won't be easy, and perhaps not even possible to track the spread back to the rally. There will be people who are asymptomatic, or who spread the virus before they recognise their symptoms.

Schools are opening and the population is travelling back to their permanent residences. There are additional reasons why the rate of spread will rise over the next few weeks leaving a huge potential for the public health to lose control even in those places which are now starting to get a handle on the spread.

Testing at the rally was a good plan, and it surely will be shown to have a benefit, especially for those who could be tested five days after exposure. But that leaves out a host of people who were gone before the fifth day, when testing is most accurate, plus all those who refused to be tested. The attendees were not the most socially responsible people in the country, or they wouldn't have been there.

What do you think? Are the bikers likely to self isolate for 14 days when they return home?

 

[tresir2012]

If anyone wants to do Indiana's math, I'm guessing we are typical. Attached are total cases, death toll, and age % for cases and deaths.

I'd do it myself but I accidentally took a double dose of melatonin. I'm currently useless.

That looks like 40% of Covid cases and 97% of deaths are age 50 or over. :-(

 

[tresir2012]

I would hope that those testing positive from them would be discovered, but what a shame that there would be anyone at all testing positive from them. It won't be easy, and perhaps not even possible to track the spread back to the rally. There will be people who are asymptomatic, or who spread the virus before they recognise their symptoms.

Schools are opening and the population is travelling back to their permanent residences. There are additional reasons why the rate of spread will rise over the next few weeks leaving a huge potential for the public health to lose control even in those places which are now starting to get a handle on the spread.

Testing at the rally was a good plan, and it surely will be shown to have a benefit, especially for those who could be tested five days after exposure. But that leaves out a host of people who were gone before the fifth day, when testing is most accurate, plus all those who refused to be tested. The attendees were not the most socially responsible people in the country, or they wouldn't have been there.

What do you think? Are the bikers likely to self isolate for 14 days when they return home?

Maybe they are on vacation for another 14 days? I have no way of guessing what 460k people are likely to do when they return home but it could depend on whether they get contact traced I guess.

 

[tresir2012]

Corbyn: Ministers had herd immunity virus strategy

'Eugenic formulas'
In an interview with left-wing magazine Tribune's A World to Win podcast, Mr Corbyn said he and Labour's shadow health secretary, Jon Ashworth, had been given an update on the coronavirus outbreak by officials.

He told the podcast: "I distinctly remember Jon Ashworth and I going to a meeting at the Cabinet Office where we got a lecture about herd immunity… the last time I discussed herd immunity had been when I worked on a pig farm 40 years ago.

"It was absurd, that you'd build up herd immunity by allowing people to die.

"And so, while the government was going into eugenic formulas of discussing all this stuff, they were not making adequate preparations."

Mr Ashworth declined to comment on the meeting, which was held under Privy Council rules, meaning the participants are not meant to discuss what was said."

More at link.

 

[SouthAussie]

dbm (misunderstood post)

 

[CSIDreamer]

dbm (misunderstood post)

That looks like 40% of Covid cases and 97% of deaths are age 50 or over. :-(

Yep. 92% ages 60+.

@SouthAussie can you repost that graph, please?

 

[SouthAussie]

Yep. 92% ages 60+.

@SouthAussie can you repost that graph, please?

Yes, but I think I misunderstood the post.

Here is the Aussie deaths by age.



COVID-19 deaths by age group and sex

 

[CSIDreamer]

Yes, but I think I misunderstood the post.

Here is the Aussie deaths by age.

View attachment 260592

COVID-19 deaths by age group and sex

It looks very comparable to my state graph.

 

[SouthAussie]

It looks very comparable to my state graph.

Yes, I don't think there is any question that the 50+ age range is at greater risk of death if they get the virus.

Our overall numbers are pretty low (relatively speaking) - with the max range of the graph being 100 people - but the over 50's and especially the over 70's take the greatest toll.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Interesting graph. CDC deaths and causes by age group 2/1 through 8/15.

https://data.cdc.gov/widgets/9bhg-hcku

 

[CSIDreamer]

Yes, I don't think there is any question that the 50+ age range is at greater risk of death if they get the virus.

Our overall numbers are pretty low (relatively speaking) - with the max range of the graph being 100 people - but the over 50's and especially the over 70's take the greatest toll.

2968 deaths on my graphs attached. All but 237 ages 60+.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Coronavirus: Scotland sees highest daily rise in COVID-19 infections in nearly three months

Scotland has recorded the highest daily rise of new coronavirus cases in almost three months - a jump of 77.

First Minister Nicola Sturgeon said the total number of cases recorded now stands at 19,534.
She added while the prevalence of COVID-19 is low, the R number - the average amount of people someone with the virus passes it on to - may be above one.

No new deaths have been reported in Scotland in the last 24 hours.

 

[astheworldfallsdown]

Further restrictions considered over cluster

Further restrictions over a coronavirus cluster linked to a Coupar Angus food processing plant are being "carefully and urgently" considered, Nicola Sturgeon has told MSPs.

The number of cases linked to the 2 Sisters poultry factory has risen to 43, an increase of 14 since Wednesday.
Ms Sturgeon said 37 of the cases in the "significant" cluster were employees and the six others were their contacts.
The plant has been closed for two weeks while staff at the site are tested.

 

[CSIDreamer]

Go Ohio

Good news: Ohio’s new coronavirus case totals continue to stay below 21-day average

CLEVELAND, Ohio - While Ohio’s fourth straight day of fewer than 1,000 newly reported coronavirus cases marks the first time that has occurred in more than a month, longer term trends offer even more encouraging news.

On 17 out of the last 19 days, the number of cases reported by the Ohio Department of Health has been lower than the 21-day average.

This means that, cumulatively, the case numbers are trending in the right direction.

For example, the 958 cases reported Wednesday were 137 below the new 21-day average of 1,095; the 861 reported Tuesday were 255 below average; the 775 reported Monday were 362 below average; and the 613 reported Sunday were 540 below the average.

Ohio hasn’t experienced a trend like this since the first half of June when only about half as many tests were being conducted.

 

[MrX]

ADHS

LIST: Arizona bars, gyms, and theaters approved to reopen by Department of Health Services

Something odd happening in AZ. Dashboard that displays metrics for reopening schools and businesses is a week and a half out of date, and I see businesses that have been denied the opportunity to open that have previously been quoted in the press, were party to lawsuits, or opened in violation of previous orders. It looks like the reopening is being slowed and certain businesses are being singled out.

 

[tresir2012]

Go Ohio

Good news: Ohio’s new coronavirus case totals continue to stay below 21-day average

CLEVELAND, Ohio - While Ohio’s fourth straight day of fewer than 1,000 newly reported coronavirus cases marks the first time that has occurred in more than a month, longer term trends offer even more encouraging news.

On 17 out of the last 19 days, the number of cases reported by the Ohio Department of Health has been lower than the 21-day average.

This means that, cumulatively, the case numbers are trending in the right direction.

For example, the 958 cases reported Wednesday were 137 below the new 21-day average of 1,095; the 861 reported Tuesday were 255 below average; the 775 reported Monday were 362 below average; and the 613 reported Sunday were 540 below the average.

Ohio hasn’t experienced a trend like this since the first half of June when only about half as many tests were being conducted.

I do believe US may be over the second peak. Hope so anyway. Now just get the vaccine distributed fast.