Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #75

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LIST: Arizona bars, gyms, and theaters approved to reopen by Department of Health Services

Something odd happening in AZ. Dashboard that displays metrics for reopening schools and businesses is a week and a half out of date, and I see businesses that have been denied the opportunity to open that have previously been quoted in the press, were party to lawsuits, or opened in violation of previous orders. It looks like the reopening is being slowed and certain businesses are being singled out.


You're doing great according to RT live

See link below for graphs.

Arizona Rt

Arizona

Current Rt

0.84

Cases

194K

Tests

1.1M

Effective Reproduction Rate · Rt

Rt is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 will spread quickly. If it’s below 1.0, infections will slow. Learn More.

We adjust positive tests for the number of tests done. Then, we calculate an implied infection curve. This uses a known distribution of how much time passes between infection and a confirmed positive report.
 
You're doing great according to RT live

See link below for graphs.

Arizona Rt

Arizona

Current Rt

0.84

Cases

194K

Tests

1.1M

Effective Reproduction Rate · Rt

Rt is the average number of people who become infected by an infectious person. If it’s above 1.0, COVID-19 will spread quickly. If it’s below 1.0, infections will slow. Learn More.

We adjust positive tests for the number of tests done. Then, we calculate an implied infection curve. This uses a known distribution of how much time passes between infection and a confirmed positive report.

It's very strange - when we were the worst in the country, there was much defiance in terms of keeping things open. Now that things are way better, there seems to be a resistance to opening. Our Governor has reached his term limit, and has national aspirations, so I'm assuming the improvement in our situation is providing material for his next campaign.
 
Coronavirus: Northern Ireland tightens lockdown with police enforcement on new group limits as R number soars

Northern Ireland is tightening its coronavirus lockdown restrictions by reducing the number of people allowed to meet, as it fights a rise in COVID-19 cases.
The announcement came moments before it emerged the nation's R number - the average number of people each infected person transmits the virus to - had surged to 1.6.

In a news conference at Stormont, health minister Robin Swann said groups who meet outdoors would now be limited to 15 - down from 30.
Groups meeting indoors will be limited to six people from two households. That is a reduction from 10, from two households.
 
This virus is like a yo-yo.

Coronavirus: Germany record highest cases in months - BBC News

Summary
  1. Germany has reported its highest daily infection rate for the coronavirus since April
  2. Spain and Italy also logged their highest daily figures in months on Wednesday and cases are rising steadily in France
  3. Australian airline Qantas reports an annual loss of almost A$2bn (£1bn; $1.4bn) as it struggles with the impact of the pandemic
  4. India has reported a record daily increase of 69,652 infections on Thursday, taking the total number of cases there to 2.84 million
  5. South Korea tightens restrictions as the country sees a spike in new cases linked mostly to a church
  6. More than 787,000 deaths have been recorded worldwide, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University
Live Reporting


Edited by Alex Therrien
 
Any cases will end up being traced though as they would pass it on so it would end up being discovered IMO.

Contact tracing is only as good as people's memory and their willingness to admit where they went and how long they stayed.

Since early March I have kept a daily log of where I went and who I was around. I know my memory would not be complete if I were to be asked for my locations and contacts going back two weeks.

It will help if I end up with the virus, but will also help me know my own exposure if others in my community test positive. For example, if tracers put the word out that someone contagious used the ATM on Thursday, I don't expect to naturally remember whether I used it Wednesday (no exposure) or Thursday (exposure) -- but my daily log will tell me.
 
I think in the end they are just saying that people 65 and older account for most of the deaths from COVID-19. This paper is not very easy to make sense of.

"Conclusions
People <65 years old have very small risks of COVID-19 death even in pandemic epicenters and deaths for people <65 years without underlying predisposing conditions are remarkably uncommon. Strategies focusing specifically on protecting high-risk elderly individuals should be considered in managing the pandemic."
I agree. I note that, for eg in British Columbia, which has stats handy , the death rate among people who have tested positive is:

33% for people over age 80
12% for those in their 70s
4% for those in their 60s

However, it's assumed there are additional people who had the disease and recovered, without being tested .

As well, there are many people who get extremely sick for a long time, and suffer after effects, and no one is measuring that.
BC COVID-19 Data scroll down to open the latest surveillance report.
 
Why Some People Get Terribly Sick from COVID-19

This Scientific American article is worth a read (BBM).
"What determines if someone gets desperately ill from the disease that is ripping its way across the planet? You are likely familiar with the broad categories of people who face greater risk: older individuals, men, those who have certain chronic conditions, and—notably in the U.S. and England—people of color. But researchers are looking deeper into these groups to determine the underlying roots, both biological and social, for their vulnerability. Investigators are relating age-related risk to the ways that the immune system changes over the years, for example, and examining male-female differences in immune responses. Some scientists are probing for genetic variations that might raise susceptibility. Others are highlighting the social, environmental and economic factors that elevate risk, including racism."

And since we've been discussing greater risk of old people dying, here is an excerpt regarding age and risk of severe illness and death from COVID (BBM):

"Age is probably the single biggest determinant of how sick someone gets from the coronavirus. In China, where the pandemic began, the average person with a confirmed infection had a 2.3 percent chance of dying. But for people between 70 and 79, it was 8 percent, and for those older than 80, it was 14.8 percent. In New York City, nearly half of confirmed deaths were among the elderly, aged 75 and older, and another quarter were among those aged 65 to 74. An analysis of 17 million people in England, published in Nature in July, concluded that patients older than 80 were at least 20 times more likely to die of the infection than those in their 50s.

“Age was our biggest predictor of outcome,” says Mangala Narasimhan, regional director of critical care at Northwell Health, the largest health care provider in the New York City area, and a co-author of a report in JAMA on the characteristics of 5,700 hospitalized COVID-19 patients. The dense concentration of elderly people in nursing homes, where infections can spread quickly and prevention is often inadequate, is clearly one reason for this correlation. But biology is another factor, particularly the aging of the immune system.

As the decades roll by, the human body becomes less effective at fighting infections. This decline is one reason why roughly 90 percent of U.S. deaths from influenza are among people aged 65 and older and why vaccines are less protective in the elderly. Basically, our defensive cells become thinned out in number and variety. And like old warriors, they become more geared toward fighting yesterday’s battles with familiar enemies than tackling something new, such as the latest flu strain or the novel coronavirus."

Also: The CDC says that 8 out of 10 COVID-19-related deaths reported in the United States have been among adults aged 65 years and older.
high-risk-80-percent.jpg
 
This is what I don’t quite get. Mississippi’s Rt rate is .91, which isn’t that bad yet the positivity rate is 23%, which is terrible. I thought a high positivity rate shows widespread community activity.

Can someone explain this to me?

Someone has probably answered you by now. If their positivity rate is that high, they need to expand testing. Jmo
 
A London hospital placed coronavirus patients in a critical care unit it knew was a 'Grenfell' fire risk

A London hospital placed coronavirus patients in a critical care unit it knew was a 'Grenfell' fire risk

Jessica Davies

13 hrs ago
  • King's College Hospital officials knew they were moving coronavirus patients into a unit that had fire risks similar to those that caused 72 deaths in the Grenfell Tower inferno.
  • Coronavirus units inside hospitals are a special risk for fires as ICU patients are often sedated and because large amounts of oxygen are used in their treatment. At least 15 people have died in Covid hospital fires this year.
  • MP Vicky Foxcroft wrote to Prime Minister Boris Johnson asking for "clarity" on fire risk at NHS hospitals.
  • The unit at King's was closed a week after Insider began investigating.
 
This is what I don’t quite get. Mississippi’s Rt rate is .91, which isn’t that bad yet the positivity rate is 23%, which is terrible. I thought a high positivity rate shows widespread community activity.

Can someone explain this to me?
IMO it means they're only testing people who are likely to be infected. So they're not testing the general population. For eg, they may only be testing where there are known outbreaks, or only testing people who report to hospital with serious covid-like symptoms.

IMO different testing strategies are perfectly legitimate. It's expensive and slows down limited testing facilities if you try to test the entire population. Can be better to prioritize quick diagnosis precisely where needed.

The R number is not measured, like positivity is, it's calculated based on statistical formulas, plugging in numbers such as the change in hospitalizations or deaths over time.

Coronavirus: What is the R number and how is it calculated?
 
Last edited:
This virus is like a yo-yo.

Coronavirus: Germany record highest cases in months - BBC News

Summary
  1. Germany has reported its highest daily infection rate for the coronavirus since April
  2. Spain and Italy also logged their highest daily figures in months on Wednesday and cases are rising steadily in France
  3. Australian airline Qantas reports an annual loss of almost A$2bn (£1bn; $1.4bn) as it struggles with the impact of the pandemic
  4. India has reported a record daily increase of 69,652 infections on Thursday, taking the total number of cases there to 2.84 million
  5. South Korea tightens restrictions as the country sees a spike in new cases linked mostly to a church
  6. More than 787,000 deaths have been recorded worldwide, according to data collated by Johns Hopkins University
Live Reporting


Edited by Alex Therrien

When are these countries going to stop accepting tourists?! Clearly it's not helping the situation having plane loads of people going to and fro.

On a personal note it is costing me at around £1000 to NOT go on our annual holiday next week, because the flights are still flying and we could technically still go. We booked at Christmas. Sooo not fair :mad:
 
Full-on brawl breaks out in the aisles of an American Airlines flight

Full-on brawl breaks out in the aisles of an American Airlines flight

Matthew Wright For Dailymail.com

6 hrs ago
A wild brawl broke out on an American Airline flight after a passenger grew disruptive after they were asked to leave the flight because they weren't wearing a mask.

The wild clip, shared across Twitter by Caryn Ross but filmed by her husband, showed the wild commotion that unfolded during the flight Las Vegas to Charlotte, North Carolina.

'Nothing like a morning Fight Club as tempers flared on @AmericanAir LAS-CLT flight today,' Ross said in the clip, shared on Monday. 'So much for social distancing! #AAFightClub'
'On Monday, a customer on American Airlines Flight 1665 with service from Las Vegas to Charlotte failed to comply with our mandatory face-covering policy after boarding the aircraft prior to departure. In accordance with our policy, the customer was subsequently asked to leave the aircraft and became disruptive, resulting in an altercation with other passengers,' the airline said in a statement, Fox 5 reports.
 
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