Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #83

[dixiegirl1035]

It’s so sad now to think back at what we knew then. We literally watched the virus spread out of China. I remember thinking in early February, why are people having super bowl parties?!? Why is the US downplaying the virus!?!

Understood. And please help me to step off a soapbox as at that time in January, probably only 5% or less understood what POTENTIALLY was coming.

It takes time to understand... that 5% has grown now. And I'm learning (Not well , from how I talk.. just my way) that the best way is to slowly slowly take time to educate. It would be easier if leadership was giving a consistent message.. and I certainly do NOT want to bash as 95% of the US at that time didn't have experience to know what was coming with the information we had. The average Joe in the US in January 2020 had no idea of coronavirus, spread, mitigation, repercussions etc. Educating without blaming folks for not knowing is something I see happening now.

Consistent messaging with how to mitigate...

It's itty bitty steps. @JerseyGirl you have been educating so many at Webslueuths since the beginning, THANKS for being with us from the beginning to do such!

Look at how far we have come just within this small community at Websleuths to share the information and pass it forward to others.

Amazing.

ETA: All above MOO

 

[mickey2942]

I just did something that I've only done once before. I went back to Thread #1 Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV and started at the last post (which was on January 31st) and read upstream. VERY VERY interesting as so many were asking the right questions and were projecting what was to come - even prior to many in the US. And how back then they did a lock down in January of 50 million people.

Lots of darn smart folks here for sure!

For those that would be interested, I highly recommend looking back as I sometimes do on a case that has had so many developments.

Shout out to all that were here and still are.. and missing those no longer with us following. Miss them. And gratitude to @Amonet who started these threads.

ETA: Sure do appreciate the screenshots of data from way back then as no way to recapture what was happening as to numbers etc from then. Note to self, attach screen shots of current projections now and compare in January 2021.

ETA#2: Mentions in that thread of Elmhust hospital in NYC... and potential oil prices... prescient.

I followed your link, back..who knew how much this would change our lives?! From WS I was far more informed about this virus. And had started buying more hand sanitizer. But, part of me, really wanted to deny that this was really going to happen.

I thought it would be localized, and never really affect us. Like H1N1. Sigh. So much for that theory.

 

[LadyL]

This is bad. This is really bad.

NEW DELHI — India’s confirmed coronavirus toll crossed 7 million on Sunday with a number of new cases dipping in recent weeks, even as health experts warn of mask and distancing fatigue setting in.

The Health Ministry registered another 74,383 infections in the past 24 hours. India is expected to become the pandemic’s worst-hit country in coming weeks, surpassing the U.S., where more than 7.7 million infections have been reported.

India cases cross 7 million as experts warn of complacency

 

[LadyL]

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...s-on-utah-farms-test-positive-for-coronavirus

More than 1.1 million minks have been culled on Dutch farms, according to the Netherlands Food and Consumer Product Safety Authority. The outbreak caused the Netherlands to shut down the industry years ahead of its existing plan to end it in 2024.

ETA: Could this be a driving force for the US to shut down the industry as the only reason for breeding is to kill for the pelts?

[bbm][sbm]

hopefully IMO

 

[BUF]

Understood. And please help me to step off a soapbox as at that time in January, probably only 5% or less understood what POTENTIALLY was coming.

It takes time to understand... that 5% has grown now. And I'm learning (Not well , from how I talk.. just my way) that the best way is to slowly slowly take time to educate. It would be easier if leadership was giving a consistent message.. and I certainly do NOT want to bash as 95% of the US at that time didn't have experience to know what was coming with the information we had. The average Joe in the US in January 2020 had no idea of coronavirus, spread, mitigation, repercussions etc. Educating without blaming folks for not knowing is something I see happening now.

Consistent messaging with how to mitigate...

It's itty bitty steps. @JerseyGirl you have been educating so many at Webslueuths since the beginning, THANKS for being with us from the beginning to do such!

Look at how far we have come just within this small community at Websleuths to share the information and pass it forward to others.

Amazing.

ETA: All above MOO

I agree that there needs to be consistent messaging of how to mitigate and educate the spread of this virus.

I am an average joe who was well aware of this contagion back in January due to I have a very close friend who lived and worked in China, but did not have all of the intel that the government had access to.... we took it very seriously even back then. As @CharlestonGal has pointed out, we are a global society that travelled frequently to all areas of the world.

Back then, I would never have thought that we would be where we are in October with all that has happened (without going into detail) and now cases/deaths rising again.

 

[cass523]

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

The doctor issued a memo on the president’s status several hours after Mr. Trump addressed a crowd of supporters from a White House balcony, defying health experts. Stimulus talks sputtered. The world has broken a three-day record for new virus cases.

President Trump’s doctor said in a memo released Saturday night that he was “no longer considered a transmission risk to others,” as the president prepared to resume campaign activities this week.

The memo from Dr. Sean P. Conley, the White House physician, said he was releasing information with Mr. Trump’s permission.

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

 

[CharlestonGal]

COVID: Hospitalizations up; 11 state records; WHO questions lockdowns

Hospitalizations, which peaked at nearly 60,000 across the nation in July, had fallen by more than half last month. But since dipping below 29,000 on Sept. 20, the number of people being treated in hospitals each day has crept higher, to almost 35,000.

And a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins data through late Saturday shows 11 states set records for new cases for a seven-day period – Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah. The U.S. has recorded its fourth consecutive day of more than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases, a streak not seen in two months.

 

[JerseyGirl]

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

President Trump’s doctor said in a memo released Saturday night that he was “no longer considered a transmission risk to others,” as the president prepared to resume campaign activities this week.

The memo from Dr. Sean P. Conley, the White House physician, said he was releasing information with Mr. Trump’s permission.

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

Trump chooses denial and recklessness as he's set to resume campaign rallies

Trump's physician, Navy Cmdr. Dr. Sean Conley, said in a memo about the President's health Saturday evening that he is "now at day 10 from symptom onset, fever-free for well over 24 hours and all symptoms improved."

"The assortment of advanced diagnostic tests obtained reveal there is no longer evidence of actively replicating virus," Conley said, but he did not explain what "advanced diagnostic tests" the President received. And the White House still will not say when Trump last tested negative before he announced his positive diagnosis early on October 2, which is important context for knowing when he was contagious.

This latest White House memo continues to be opaque with the medical details about Trump's condition, leaving many questions about Trump's current condition unanswered.

 

[CharlestonGal]

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

President Trump’s doctor said in a memo released Saturday night that he was “no longer considered a transmission risk to others,” as the president prepared to resume campaign activities this week.

The memo from Dr. Sean P. Conley, the White House physician, said he was releasing information with Mr. Trump’s permission.

White House Doctor Says Trump Is No Longer Contagious

hmmm.....based on what exactly, I wonder? I see no mention of a negative PCR in that memo, the only real way to declare someone no longer contagious.

Then again, I'm a science type and demand evidence for practically everything. lol

 

[CSIDreamer]

COVID: Hospitalizations up; 11 state records; WHO questions lockdowns

Hospitalizations, which peaked at nearly 60,000 across the nation in July, had fallen by more than half last month. But since dipping below 29,000 on Sept. 20, the number of people being treated in hospitals each day has crept higher, to almost 35,000.

And a USA TODAY analysis of Johns Hopkins data through late Saturday shows 11 states set records for new cases for a seven-day period – Alaska, Colorado, Indiana, Minnesota, Missouri, Montana, Nebraska, New Mexico, North Dakota, South Dakota and Utah. The U.S. has recorded its fourth consecutive day of more than 50,000 new COVID-19 cases, a streak not seen in two months.

Dr. David Nabarro, the World Health Organization’s special envoy on COVID-19, urged world leaders this week to stop “using lockdowns as your primary control method" for blunting a virus surge.

“We in the World Health Organization do not advocate lockdowns as the primary means of control of this virus,” Nabarro told "The Spectator." Nabarro said lockdowns can only be justified "to buy you time to reorganize, regroup, rebalance your resources, protect your health workers who are exhausted. But by and large, we’d rather not do it.”

 

[JerseyGirl]

hmmm.....based on what exactly, I wonder? I see no mention of a negative PCR in that memo, the only real way to declare someone no longer contagious.

Then again, I'm a science type and demand evidence for practically everything. lol

McEnany said prior to this report that the metrics test for the virus would be released before the president travels. I guess not?

Kayleigh McEnany To CBS3's Stephanie Stahl: 'We Don't Believe' President Trump Ignored COVID-19 Science

 

[cass523]

Visual Tracking: COVID-19 and the White House

At least 34 people connected to the White House have tested positive for COVID-19, many of whom attended a Rose Garden event in late September.

3:52

 

[CharlestonGal]

Volunteer Who Tested New Oxford Vaccine and Astrazeneca Tested Positive for Coronavirus | Technology | En24 News

A Spanish nurse named Joan Pons, who works in England, confirmed that tested positive for coronavirus after being one of the volunteers who tested the vaccine at the University of Oxford and the Astrazeneca laboratory in that country.

The professional indicated that this is the first time that he has tested positive in a PCR test, after having performed 12 tests in the past.

According to the newspaper La Vanguardia, Pons began with symptoms last Wednesday, when he got up with a nasal congestion and headache. At that time, he called the laboratory, who told him that he should have an exam.

The man has been living in the city of Sheffield for more than 20 years, and in June he volunteered to test the vaccine at the two aforementioned institutions.

At the moment, Pons and his family are isolated at home, waiting for the symptoms of the virus to have completely gone.

 

[cass523]

hmmm.....based on what exactly, I wonder? I see no mention of a negative PCR in that memo, the only real way to declare someone no longer contagious.

Then again, I'm a science type and demand evidence for practically everything. lol

You and others stating the same

"This evening I am happy to report that, in addition to the president meeting CDC criteria for the safe discontinuation of isolation, this morning's COVID P.C.R. sample demonstrates, by currently recognized standards, he is no longer considered a transmission risk to others," Conley said in his memo. "Now at day 10 from symptoms onset, fever-free for well over 24 hours and all symptoms improved, the assortment of advanced diagnostic tests obtained reveal there is no longer evidence of actively replicating virus," he wrote.

"In addition, sequential testing throughout his illness has demonstrated decreasing viral loads that correlate with increasing cycle threshold times, as well as decreasing and now undetectable subgenomic [COVID] mRNA," Conley added.

But several experts were skeptical about the wording describing Trump's test results, which did not explicitly categorize the president as "negative" for the coronavirus.

Conley's memo suggested Trump's viral load was dropping, but appeared to still be detectable

And the mRNA Conley mentioned is a part of the virus that can be spotted by lab work, Susan Butler-Wu, a clinical microbiologist at the University of Southern California, told the Times. But that procedure is "experimental at this point," she added.

There is also no test that can definitively show if a person at the end of a coronavirus infection is still contagious, Melissa Miller, a clinical microbiologist at the University of North Carolina School of Medicine, told the newspaper.

https://www.usnews.com/news/health-...no-longer-infectious-after-covid-19-diagnosis

 

[JerseyGirl]

India-Israel ‘30-second coronavirus test’ should be 'ready in days'

... requires a person to blow into a tube; also inexpensive without the logistics and cost of sending the sample to a lab.

 

[cass523]

"The CDC predicts that by the end of October, there will be between 224,000 and 233,000 cumulative deaths from coronavirus in the United States this year."

"The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention is forecasting between 2,800 and 6,800 deaths from COVID-19 in the United States by the end of the month, according to a report published this week."

Health and Human Services data show the U.S. outbreak started in the Northeast in the spring before expanding to the South and West. By late summer, the Southeast passed its peak for COVID-19 cases, although new infections remained high. By mid-September, the U.S. COVID burden had shifted to the Midwest and in Mississippi, and then to the Plains by early October.

While national COVID-19 deaths have decreased week over week, key indicators, such as new cases, ICU usage and test positivity rates, are rising, according to HHS documents."

https://twitter.com/ABC/status/1315318122996527105

CDC forecasts thousands more COVID-19 deaths by end of month

 

[CharlestonGal]

CSU Coronavirus Quarantine Dorms Full, Students Housed In Local Hotels

FORT COLLINS, Colo. (CBS4)– Colorado State University has run out of dorm rooms reserved for coronavirus quarantine students. Overflow students are being housed in hotels and motels in Fort Collins.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Scientists investigate possible coronavirus mutation in Chile

Southern Patagonia has seen an unusually contagious second wave of infections in recent weeks.

The remote region of Magallanes, which accounts for only 1% of the country’s population, reported nearly 20% of Chile’s total cases so far.

Scientists say the mutations may make the virus more contagious but do not necessarily make it more deadly, nor do they necessarily inhibit the effectiveness of a potential vaccine.

 

[musicaljoke]

You may be able to find the info from 3-4? months ago somewhere if you look as iirc it was waaaaaaaaaay back re that case. We discussed such on the threads at that time MOO. Nextstrain and others iirc broke that. And the reason so many here followed them wayyyyy back.

I'm out to garden! Fall is here!

@musicaljoke, isn't that first thread here Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV amazing to read now? I was floored this am.

So many things that have been brought up in the threads are now only hitting MSM, e.g. @Amonet posting in June re Neanderthal connection that someone here posted two days ago as MSM is reporting (headline stuff.. but I'll refrain from comment) Coronavirus COVID-19 - Global Health Pandemic #63

I've always said, this thread is / perhaps was? often more than not perhaps 3 months ahead of MSM. And at that time, we focused on the original peer reviewed scientific data! (like with a court case, some here prefer/demand/want the evidence not the MSM interpretation on so many cases)

Especially MOO vs. MSM regurgitation WITHOUT understanding and drilling down of news that is 3-4 months old. (e.g. the Neanderthal research which I went into in above posts yesterday)

MOO

Yes, indeed. It truly is a marvel to see how the WSers on this thread have dug into the research and come up with facts that have taken months to gain traction by the public and the press. I think that's why it's so important to patiently keep posting the actual data and keep speaking out against misinformation. It is very much like getting the real evidence in a court case. Good analogy dixie!

 

[beatrixpotter]

What COVID-19 Reinfection Means for Vaccines

Why reinfection occurs so consistently across the coronavirus family, we don’t know. But what has become increasingly clear is that the defenses we mount against the virus during and after primary infection seem to fade relatively quickly—a disappearing act that doesn’t bode well for our prospects of achieving so-called herd immunity over a longer period of time. I’ve written before that, as a strategy, counting on herd immunity is reckless and ineffective. Immunity, we must remember, isn’t a switch the body can flip on and off at will. It consists of a complex series of reactions and interactions that are difficult to observe and detangle. One set of mechanisms is innate and at work constantly, irrespective of the threat at hand. Another is adaptive, chemically generated at the moment of encounter to attack a specific intruder in specific ways.

It is the case for many viruses, including those that cause most childhood diseases, that reasonably high levels of IgG antibodies persist for many years. This is not the case for human coronaviruses.

The implications of this are overwhelming. A new normal. A new deadly virus that is not going to magically leave even with a vaccine. We are just going to have to find a way to adapt other than pretending it's not a problem. Clearly hospital systems the world over are not prepared to handle this virus infecting us year round and we are going to have to find a way to adapt. We can handle the common coronaviruses because almost none of us need hospitalization from them. Even if we find a vaccine with 50% efficacy we will still have this much greater burden on our healthcare. :/