China hit by second disease outbreak as thousands of chickens wiped out
At least 4,500 chickens have been killed during an outbreak of bird flu, or H5N1 avian influenza, at a farm in Shaoyang as China's struggles with the coronavirus crisis
China hit by second disease outbreak as thousands of chickens wiped out
Greg, I’m telling you I’m going to have to give you the award for the most “it just gets worse and worse” posts, my friend.
Gee whiz.
Is this contained?
:lookingitup:
From the article above:
“The farm where the outbreak occurred had 7,850 chickens, said officials, who have sealed off and sterilised the affected area.”
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Deadly bird flu outbreak among chickens in China, near coronavirus epicentre
- Bird flu outbreak in Hunan province, which lies on the southern border of Hubei province, the epicentre of the coronavirus outbreak
- Bird flu is much deadlier than either Sars or the coronavirus, but as of yet no human cases have been reported in this outbreak
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China reports H5N1 bird flu outbreak in Hunan province
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A 'highly pathogenic strain' of H5N1 bird flu has been reported in China's Hunan province
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Via WHO/Europe on Jan 27:
Increase in ‘bird flu’ outbreaks – WHO/Europe advice for handling dead or sick birds
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Back to Massachusetts:
Massachusetts man has coronavirus, state health officials say; US cases rise to 8
“Officials said the man sought medical treatment soon after he returned to the U.S., although it was not immediately clear when this was. The patient has been isolated since and anyone who came in contact with him is also being monitored for symptoms.
“We are grateful that this young man is recovering and sought medical attention immediately,’’ Massachusetts Public Health Commissioner Monica Bharel said in a news release. "Massachusetts has been preparing for a possible case of this new coronavirus, and we were fortunate that astute clinicians took appropriate action quickly. Again, the risk to the public from the 2019 novel coronavirus remains low in Massachusetts.””
[...]
“The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) said in a
news release Friday that a California man was diagnosed with the illness after returning from Wuhan.”
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Man in Boston tests positive for coronavirus; 8th confirmed case in the U.S.
BBM:
“The man is in his 20s and lives in Boston, the state's Department of Health said in a press release on Saturday. The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention notified health officials about the case late Friday evening, the release stated, adding that the risk to the public is low.”
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True China coronavirus cases number could be 10 times official figure: Study
“Hong Kong-based outside researchers
estimated in an analysis released Friday, however, that the actual number of people infected in Wuhan could actually be about 75,815.
“Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks,” researchers reported in the
Lancet, a major medical journal. “Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres.”
The researchers arrived at the figure by analyzing the numbers of inbound and outbound flights at Wuhan’s international airport, taking into consideration the period of time in which the outbreak has been at its height. They looked at the number of cases that had shown up in cities outside of mainland China as a baseline and then measured how many people had flown into Wuhan before symptom onset, taking into consideration how quickly the virus is believed to spread.“
@dixiegirl1035 , is this what you were referencing earlier?
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Nowcasting and forecasting the potential domestic and international spread of the 2019-nCoV outbreak originating in Wuhan, China: a modelling study
https://www.thelancet.com/journals/lancet/article/PIIS0140-6736(20)30260-9/fulltext
Jan. 31, 2020
“Findings
In our baseline scenario, we estimated that the basic reproductive number for 2019-nCoV was 2·68 (95% CrI 2·47–2·86) and that 75 815 individuals (95% CrI
37 304–130 330) have been infected in Wuhan as of Jan 25, 2020. The epidemic doubling time was 6·4 days (95% CrI 5·8–7·1). We estimated that in the baseline scenario, Chongqing, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen had imported 461 (95% CrI 227–805), 113 (57–193), 98 (49–168), 111 (56–191), and 80 (40–139) infections from Wuhan, respectively. If the transmissibility of 2019-nCoV were similar everywhere domestically and over time, we inferred that epidemics are already growing exponentially in multiple major cities of China with a lag time behind the Wuhan outbreak of about 1–2 weeks.
Interpretation
Given that 2019-nCoV is no longer contained within Wuhan, other major Chinese cities are probably sustaining localised outbreaks. Large cities overseas with close transport links to China could also become outbreak epicentres, unless substantial public health interventions at both the population and personal levels are implemented immediately. Independent self-sustaining outbreaks in major cities globally could become inevitable because of substantial exportation of presymptomatic cases and in the absence of large-scale public health interventions. Preparedness plans and mitigation interventions should be readied for quick deployment globally.”
