Coronavirus - Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV #3

[Amonet]

The number of people already infected by the mystery virus emerging in China is far greater than official figures suggest, scientists have told the BBC.

There have been 41 laboratory-confirmed cases of the new virus, but UK experts estimate the figure is closer to 1,700.

New Chinese virus 'will have infected hundreds'

Up to 4,500 patients in China may have caught the same strain of coronavirus that has killed two people, scientists fear.

Health officials in Wuhan – the city at the heart of the outbreak which started in December – confirmed four new cases today, taking the total to 48.

But Imperial College London researchers say this may be the 'tip of the iceberg' after analysing flights out of the city.

Experts say the fact three Chinese tourists have tested positive for the virus outside Wuhan indicates the disease toll may be higher than reported.

Scientists fear up to 4,500 Chinese patients may have caught the new coronavirus | Daily Mail Online

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Thread #2

 

[dotr]

Wondering if there will be a baby boom, considering that many are living in a close and quarantined environment? speculation, imo.

 

[Trino]

Is the quarantine for Cirque in Vegas or China or both?
Cirque du Soleil cancels shows in China over coronavirus

 

[mickey2942]

Is the quarantine for Cirque in Vegas or China or both?
Cirque du Soleil cancels shows in China over coronavirus

I know that several members of Cirque du Soleil in Vegas are self quarantined, for now. A couple of other shows in Vegas went "dark" this week, Gwen Stefani is one, due to illness.
Gwen Stefani says she is sick, Friday show in Las Vegas canceled

Note, I am not saying that she has any specific illness. Just that her show is one of many that canceled this week.

 

[Pi Thoughts]

Sephora has 20 stores across Australia and offers in store beauty services......

“Cosmetics giant Sephora has taken the extraordinary step of cancelling all in-store makeup services due to coronavirus fears.

Customers who have booked either a makeup lesson or custom makeup have since received an email telling them the services had been “suspended until further notice” due to the “ongoing 2019 Novel Coronavirus (2019-nCoV) situation”.

Makeup services are listed on the Sephora website as “currently unavailable”, while one customer said she had been told by staff via online chat it was a “precautionary measure”.”
Makeup store’s stunning response to virus fears

 

[asyousay]

Yes it definitely will hit the global economy. Companies like Apple could take a big stock hit if they can’t manufacture iPhones in the long term in China and they have major supply problems. That’s the problem with relying on one country so much for manufacturing.

There was a shocking report on the Scottish News that many Chinese restaurants are having many bookings cancelled and the Chinese Supermarkets in Scotland are suffering major losses in trade. It is crazy people are thinking right I can’t go places with Chinese workers who live in Scotland because I might catch the coronavirus.

It’s funny you mention this as we had this discussion at work a few days ago. I am not a huge fan of Chinese food anyway and I do tend to over react so I had not mentioned anything but in my head I had already decided I wouldn’t go near any Chinese food for the foreseeable future. Then at work it came up in discussion when people were saying “ I can’t be the only one who now won’t eat Chinese food” and I had to laugh and say “ OMG “ me too but I thought i would be alone in that thinking. But everybody was saying the same that they won’t eat any Chinese food or go near their restaurants until this is all over.


So seeing this just shows human nature and the fact people are scared and are over thinking things at the moment as it is a over reaction but fear at the moment is winning for a lot of people.


MOO
IMO

 

[scandinavian girl]

It’s funny you mention this as we had this discussion at work a few days ago. I am not a huge fan of Chinese food anyway and I do tend to over react so I had not mentioned anything but in my head I had already decided I wouldn’t go near any Chinese food for the foreseeable future. Then at work it came up in discussion when people were saying “ I can’t be the only one who now won’t eat Chinese food” and I had to laugh and say “ OMG “ me too but I thought i would be alone in that thinking. But everybody was saying the same that they won’t eat any Chinese food or go near their restaurants until this is all over.


So seeing this just shows human nature and the fact people are scared and are over thinking things at the moment as it is a over reaction but fear at the moment is winning for a lot of people.


MOO
IMO

I was just googling about human instincts and fear bcs I was thinking it is our instinct to control our surroundings, especially when it is changing drastically. I haven´t eaten chinese foods for years and found myself declaring that I won´t eat it now due to the virus...and I am in sweden. My point is that internet has become our immidiate surroundings and we are reacting to it.

 

[Amonet]

I think that right now some of those Chinese-run establishments are probably some of the safer ones to visit to avoid colds and flu (and also coronavirus).

I don't know what the % is of people who went to China for the Lunar New Year, but I doubt it's that high. Those establishments run by people of Chinese descent are probably glued to the news. The ones who speak Chinese language(s) are probably on the internet every evening looking at terrifying news and videos. They are the very ones with the greatest reasons to take the warnings seriously and ensure their staff who've recently returned from Hubei, or anyone with cold or flu symptoms stays home. It's their families, friends, colleagues, and communities that are at greater risk from the virus, so if they allowed someone who'd recently returned from Hubei back to work sooner, or someone who'd been to China to come back to work with a cold...they surely have awareness that it's they and their families who would be at greatest risk.

And on top of that, they are losing customers...they still have to pay their bills. They walk down the street or get on a bus and someone gives them a strange look. Their little ones could be coming home from school crying because no one wants to sit with them any more.

But how many restaurants and shops 'demand' that their staff work despite having a cold or flu, or they don't provide sick pay which means that many workers try to work through their illnesses as they can't afford time off?

Yes, we're human, and our brains are wired to want to have a visual clue that something is higher risk so that we can avoid it more easily. But at the moment, the risks of flu, car accident, etc, are far, far higher than the risk of contracting the new coronavirus.

 

[asyousay]

But the way the media is driving our fear at the moment means I don’t give Flu, Cancer , car accident a second thought. This is being constantly shoved down our throats and everywhere you look people are talking about it. The fact another case is now in Brighton and the amount of people he would gone thought from Heathrow is mind boggling. It definitely means that we will get more cases because of this selfish idiot who didn’t self isolate. No the stupid idiot went to a walk in NHS clinic and probably infected even more people who were already ill despite knowing that they shouldn’t of done that in the first place and how many more people are going to ignore the warnings and do what he did and put even more people at risk or catching this?!!!

He could of called the NHS helpline and so many options available to him but nope he risked infecting 100’s more.



IMO

 

[Amonet]

But the way the media is driving our fear at the moment means I don’t give Flu, Cancer , car accident a second thought. This is being constantly shoved down our throats and everywhere you look people are talking about it. The fact another case is now in Brighton and the amount of people he would gone thought from Heathrow is mind boggling. It definitely means that we will get more cases because of this selfish idiot who didn’t self isolate. No the stupid idiot went to a walk in NHS clinic and probably infected even more people who were already ill despite knowing that they shouldn’t of done that in the first place.

IMO

BBM

Yeah, exactly. You can't help but think about it, can you? I went to bed thinking about it, woke up thinking about it, and I think every time I turned over in the night I was thinking about it, too.

I hadn't read those things about the Brighton case. I doubt he really thought he could have the new coronavirus though? There weren't any government warnings for people who'd traveled from there.

It's so important that everyone who has returned from all the countries on the current list does call 111, even for very slight possible cold symptoms. Stay inside, get tested, and if an ambulance is necessary the 111 team can ensure that they come prepared and take the patient to an isolation room with doctors and nurses who are suited up and prepared.

 

[Amonet]

I went to try and find more info on the 3rd UK case. I found this article which doesn't tell me more than I already knew about that case, but it does have some information that could be meaningful to the numbers confirmed in the next few weeks...

In the UK, there had been 466 negative tests for coronavirus as of Wednesday. Before direct flights were halted by the Chinese government, 1,466 passengers and 95 staff had arrived in the UK from Wuhan, the centre of the outbreak in China, between 10 and 24 January. All 1,304 who remained in the UK are now out of the incubation period for the virus.

First British national to contract coronavirus had been in Singapore

It's also 14 days since Hubei was effectively quarantined. It must feel like it's been a lot longer for the people stuck in their homes there, but if that cruise ship currently moored in Japan is anything to go by, that quarantine should have reduced the Ro rate in Hubei from what it might have been if people were still traveling on buses and trains and going to work in a busy factory, or to school etc in close contact with dozens or hundreds of other people.

 

[Amonet]

This article says it's odd, given the numbers who travel between China and Indonesia, that Indonesia doesn't have any confirmed cases yet. The article says that some virologists and epidemiologists are also concerned that the numbers of confirmed infected in some other countries is lower than they'd expect, and they fear this might mean that there's some under-the-radar spread in those countries. That would not be a good thing as every case needs ring containment in order to limit this outbreak and get it under control and hopefully conquered.

I think there's a suggestion that unrecognised cases in Singapore might also have led to the third case in Britain.

Concerns coronavirus is going undetected in Indonesia

 

[Pi Thoughts]

A lot of side stories occurring as a result of coronavirus. So sorry for this Mum......

A Chinese mother has missed out on saying goodbye to her dying son because her Australian visa tragically did not get approved in time.
Xing Lan Ren feared she would not be able to see her only son, Xiao Li, before his life support was turned off in Melbourne due to the coronavirus travel ban blocking her entry into Australia.
The 22-year-old was declared brain dead on Monday after his car collided with a truck in Gippsland on January 27, leaving him in a critical condition at the Royal Melbourne Hospital.
Chinese mother granted Australian visa after son's crash

 

[asyousay]

A lot of side stories occurring as a result of coronavirus. So sorry for this Mum......

A Chinese mother has missed out on saying goodbye to her dying son because her Australian visa tragically did not get approved in time.
Xing Lan Ren feared she would not be able to see her only son, Xiao Li, before his life support was turned off in Melbourne due to the coronavirus travel ban blocking her entry into Australia.
The 22-year-old was declared brain dead on Monday after his car collided with a truck in Gippsland on January 27, leaving him in a critical condition at the Royal Melbourne Hospital.
Chinese mother granted Australian visa after son's crash

this is why I would be No good in power

So absolutely heartbreaking for the mum but trying to balance the need for her to see her son while counter balancing the threat she could potentially be to the general public as well it’s so tough and I am glad they think they can manage it.

May He RIP and she get the closure she needs.


MOO

 

[dixiegirl1035]

DATE ---- Mainland ---- Outside Mainland China
2/6----30,600----265
2/5----27,400----227
2/4----23,700----212
2/3-----19,700----188
2/2-------17,200----183
2/1Fri -- 14,300 ---- 173
1/31 ---- 11,200 ---- 153
1/30 ---- 9,700 ---- 118
1/29 ---- 7,700 ---- 105
1/28 ---- 6,000 ---- 87
1/27 ---- 4,400 ---- 64
1/26 ---- 2,700 ---- 57
1/25Fri -- 2,000 ---- 40
1/24 ---- 916 ---- 25

Mainland up to 2-6 (e.d. China's Health ministry submission was 6 minutes after 2/7's cutoff, they had 600 cases not on this graph)



Outside of Mainland up to 2-6



Operations Dashboard for ArcGIS

 

[Windsorite]

Canadians arrived in Trenton at 6:30 am, connecting flight for American plane is on the tarmac in Vancouver.

Plane carrying Canadians evacuating China’s coronavirus outbreak lands in Ontario

 

[JerseyGirl]

Shanghai passes new law to punish those who hide their illness

The Shanghai Municipal People’s Congress voted to pass a new law that stipulates that those who conceal their medical history and their visits to sick people or key infected areas, and who avoid medical isolation, can be placed on the municipal blacklist.

It’s not clear what these punishments are, though typically they include bans on air and high-speed rail travel, and luxury spending. This may be more an effort to emphasize the need to self-report and comply with authorities.

Coronavirus live updates: Trump heaps praise on Xi, Singapore raises virus alert to SARS level

 

[JerseyGirl]

China to send team to Wuhan amid public outcry over whistleblower doctor’s death

China will be sending a team to Wuhan city “to comprehensively investigate the matters regarding Dr. Li Wenliang raised by the public."

Dr. Li Wenliang, a 34-year-old Chinese doctor in Wuhan, died early Friday morning after being infected by the virus, according to the Wuhan Central Hospital where he worked. The ophthalmologist was one of the first people to warn about the dangers of the virus, but was reprimanded by authorities for “spreading rumors.”

His death has ignited a public outpouring of grief and criticism of the government on social media.

The hashtag #IWantFreedomOfSpeech has been censored on Chinese social media, Weibo.

Coronavirus live updates: Trump heaps praise on Xi, Singapore raises virus alert to SARS level

#IWantFreedomOfSpeech

 

[dixiegirl1035]

Singapore has moved to DORCON level orange.

I thought to add info in detail in the threads as they are so very transparant and have experience (SARS 2003 and H1N1 2009 pandemics hit there) in what they are doing -even listing where victims work, have congregated, and live egads MOH | News Highlights

"As there are now a few local cases without any links to previous cases or travel history to China, we have stepped up our risk assessment from DORSCON Yellow to DORSCON Orange."

MOH | News Highlights

Pandemic Readiness and Response Plan (PRRP) in the aftermath of the severe acute respiratory syndrome (SARS) epidemic in 2003. Overall, the plan aimed to: (a) Reduce morbidity and mortality through appropriate treatment of the cases; (b) Slow the spread to reduce the surge on healthcare; and (c) Maintain essential services in Singapore to limit social and economic disruption.

The ‘Disease Outbreak Response System Condition’, or DORSCON (see Table 1 below), is a colour-coded framework that shows you the current disease situation. It also demonstrates what needs to be done to prevent and reduce the impact of infections.

DORSCON takes into account both disease severity and spread to predict the impact on the community. Our risk assessment for DORSCON includes:

• The current disease situation overseas
• How transmissible the disease is
• How likely it is to arrive in Singapore
• What impact it may have on the local community
  
  
  
  
  
  How to interpret Singapore’s DORSCON levels during a virus outbreak
  
  http://www.annals.edu.sg/pdf/39VolNo4Apr2010/V39N4p313.pdf
  
  https://www.nas.gov.sg/archivesonline/data/pdfdoc/20090513005/moh press release_transition of measures.pdf shows what code orange means in the hospitals. (taken from flu epidemic in their archives, but a good visual)
  
  Contact tracing for Case 29 (announced on 6 February) so far has not established a link to previous cases or travel history to mainland China.
  
  2. Today, the Ministry of Health (MOH) has confirmed three additional cases of 2019 novel coronavirus (2019-nCoV) infection in Singapore. Contact tracing is underway; as of now, we have not uncovered links to previous cases or travel history to China.
  3. As there are now a few local cases without any links to previous cases or travel history to China, we have stepped up our risk assessment from DORSCON Yellow to DORSCON Orange.
  Precautionary measures calibrated to manage escalating scenarios
  4. We have planned for such a scenario involving community spread. Since last month, the Government has implemented a series of defensive measures to reduce the risk of imported cases and community transmission. We have strengthened these measures progressively as the situation escalated, both globally and in Singapore.
  5. With the heightened risk posture of DORSCON Orange, we will be introducing the following additional precautionary measures to minimise the risk of further transmission of the virus in the community:
  Additional precautions for large-scale events
  6. We advise event organisers to cancel or defer non-essential large-scale events. For those who choose to proceed, they should take all necessary precautions. These include:
  · Carry out temperature screening;
  · Look out for respiratory symptoms such as cough or runny nose, and deny entry to unwell individuals;
  · Remind participants not to attend if the participants have recent travel history to mainland China, and require travel declaration, if possible;
  · Ensure that event venues are ventilated and are adequately equipped with facilities for hand washing; and
  · Increase the frequency of cleaning commonly used areas; and
  · Maintain a registration list of participants, if practical.
  7. Individuals who are unwell, on Leave of Absence, or have recent travel history to mainland China, should not attend such events.
  Daily health checks at the workplace
  8. All employers should require their employees to conduct regular temperature-taking and check whether they have respiratory symptoms such as cough and runny nose. Temperature should be taken at least twice daily, and anyone with a fever or is unwell should leave office immediately to see a doctor.
  Enhance business continuity capability at workplaces
  9. All workplaces should step up their business continuity plans, and prepare for widespread community transmission. The business continuity plans can include allowing employees to telecommute or dividing the workforce into segregated teams.
  Raise protection of vulnerable groups
  Healthcare institutions
  10. MOH will be implementing temperature screening and closer controls of entry points into the hospitals. Our hospitals will introduce measures to care for patients with pneumonia separately from other patients, to reduce risk of transmission. MOH will continue to work with the healthcare institutions to enhance infection control.
  Schools
  11. With immediate effect, schools will suspend inter-school and external activities till the end of the March school holidays. These include the national school games, learning journeys and camps. All schools and teachers will also continue to implement the enhanced measures announced on 4 February, such as classroom-based assemblies, school-based co-curricular activities in smaller groups and staggered recesses.
  Preschools and social/ eldercare services
  12. Preschools and social/ eldercare services will limit the number of visitors to their premises.
  Role of individuals in preventing transmission
  13. The measures we are taking will only be effective in containing the spread of the virus if individuals also play their part. The 2019-nCoV is transmitted through contact with droplets from infected individuals, either directly or indirectly through hands that have come into contact with these droplets. The virus can also transmit through surfaces that have been contaminated with these droplets.
  14. Even with community transmission, the most effective method to prevent transmission remains through good personal hygiene of regular hand washing with soap and water, and the use of hand sanitisers when soap and water are unavailable. We should avoid touching our face unnecessarily, and especially if our hands are not clean.
  15. As a general good practice, we advise people not to shake hands during this period, but adopt alternative greetings.
  16. People who are unwell should stay at home, and wear a mask if they must go out, such as to see the doctor. In particular, they should avoid coming into close and sustained proximity with others. Workers who come across customers who are unwell, should immediately advise customers to leave and go see a doctor.
  
  MOH | News Highlights

 

[JerseyGirl]

Coronavirus concern: Ship with 12 quarantined passengers arrives in New Jersey

A Royal Caribbean cruise ship with 12 passengers who have been quarantined due to concern over possible coronavirus infection has docked in Bayonne, New Jersey.

The Anthem of the Seas arrived at 6 a.m. Friday. Several ambulances were seen pulling up nearby.

The quarantined passengers will be tested by officials from the CDC, who were on hand to greet the arriving ship.

The passengers, all Chinese nationals, started exhibiting symptoms aboard the ship, which is returning from the Bahamas.

A federal official said there is no indication any of the passengers actually have coronavirus, and that these steps are being taken out of an abundance of caution.