Coronavirus Global Health Emergency, 2019-nCoV

[dixiegirl1035]

Two MORE Australians are diagnosed with the deadly coronavirus, bringing the total number of confirmed cases to nine

Australian coronavirus toll jumps to NINE as two citizens in China are confirmed with disease | Daily Mail Online

I think most news outlets, when referring to countries with the virus, are referring to those infected within the country and outside of China.

Daily Mail is not following the other conventions to track the spread as these two new ones from the article, the folks are still in China.

 

[dixiegirl1035]

They will check the passengers on arrival into the USA in Alaska. They will only be checking for people who have active symptoms of cold/flu. Those ones will go to hospital to be treated in isolation and tested to see if they test positive for the new coronavirus. I'm not sure how long the test takes to be done and come back?

The rest of the passengers will go to the next phase of travel to California. It doesn't specify exactly what will happen then....will they go into a quarantine center there, or will they be allowed to go home and into isolation at their own homes? But I would certainly expect anyone incoming on these fights to be expected to be isolated for approximately 14 days from their last contact with a known case. So if in 5 days someone starts showing symptoms, then their known contacts have a further 14 days apart from the general population.

I would also expect/hope that the government, if anyone is self-isolated at home, would deliver groceries and medications to their home for them so that they have no reason to go out to the store or anything like that.

But if the govt. has somewhere like a disused airbase that still has serviceable buildings onsite, then it might be that the govt. intends for the passengers to remain there instead of going onto their homes, which could be in various other parts of the country and require further plane travel...which I doubt the govt. would want to happen, therefore military quarters or a hanger might be used for a quarantine center.

People who are in quarantine centers would likely be checked twice daily for symptoms by a nurse, and have blood tests taken during their stay, and before release from quarantine. In this way they might be able to catch some cases before the individual has symptoms, and they'll test before release to ensure the person isn't infected but not showing symptoms, but by 14 days after last contact with a confirmed infected individual I believe the virus ought to show in their blood. (Or saliva tests, or whatever they're using for the testing).

They landed early this am at the Air Force base. All were cleared in Alaska. They will all stay for 3 days at the base, and then followed at home for 2 weeks according to last reports. Those that get symptomatic and/or test positive will be sent to local hospital. Those wanting to stay the entire 14 days even if asymptomatic "may" stay.

 

[Amonet]

If they are quarantining many of those most likely to be infected, this won't become huge. Is this statement probably true or woefully naive?
IMO.

Generally true if you change the wording slightly to say that it's less likely to become huge in a particular area, depending on what other measures are also taken.

The ring measures are the standard that have stopped many outbreaks of very serious diseases in their tracks. It's what they did to stop smallpox. It's the way they stopped SARS. It definitely helps reduce the spread, and in so doing you have the potential to put an end to the outbreak.

I am a bit concerned that within China there might be too many wild cases that haven't sought medical treatment/confirmatory testing. But that is a greater problem in Hubei (the province in which Wuhan lies) than in other provinces in China. That is the reason why China has taken much more serious measures in Hubei province and especially in the city of Wuhan.

 

[Amonet]

Its the perfect environment:

"Many Chinese people, even city dwellers, insist that freshly slaughtered poultry is tastier and more healthful than refrigerated or frozen meat. This is one of the major reasons China has been such a hot spot for new influenza viruses: Nowhere else on earth do so many people have such close contact with so many birds."

Is China Ground Zero for a Future Pandemic? | Science | Smithsonian Magazine

This article from 2017 was about bird flu.

I surely don't know, but it's possible that viruses originate in other places too, but the population isn't so dense so the virus doesn't spread and just dies out. It seems that viruses from the animals mutate and jump to humans.

If there aren't many humans to serve as a host to the virus, it would die out.

In large Chinese cities with live markets, there are many human hosts. Closing the live markets in the cities should help, imo.

But I'm not an expert by any means!

jmo

Both of these posts explain it very well. It's not like every virus originates in China or always has. But in most industrialised countries that have seen the growth of massive cities, there's been a change from live (food) animals living in close quarters with those massive populations. That has obviously helped a lot in reducing the number of outbreaks in those cities that have made the change. But it would appear that China has not yet made that change, and that the live markets are still very popular in the cities, and even if not everyone visits them as opposed to getting frozen meat from a supermarket, you've still got the close-living conditions to enable the virus to spread once it does emerge to affect humans and spread between humans..

 

[Bravo]

We just had a recall on milk here. Too late I already drank 2 of the 3 bags that "may" contain sanitizer. So I should be good to go inside and out. Just a bit of levity. Sigh.....

 

[gregjrichards]

The death toll rose to 170 in China, and the number of infections jumped by nearly 30 percent.

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Now Has More Cases Than It Had of SARS

 

[Amonet]

I listened to most of the WHO presser and have read most of the news links. Has anyone reported on exactly who is dying from this? Maybe the data isn't clear just yet. I wonder if like other outbreaks is it the very young/old or those already with compromised immune systems/health issues?

I've mostly been reading the articles on the BBC news website. I was seeing information (which I presume I read there) that most deaths were in people of older years and who had pre-existing health issues, which is very similar to what happens in most flu outbreaks. Whether that is changing as the virus continues to spread, I don't know.

I also read a figure, and I'm not sure of the source of it, that about 20% of people infected were having symptoms that required hospitalisation. That is quite a high figure if correct. I think in those who've tested positive outside China and have been put into isolation, many of them are not having severe symptoms that would normally require a hospital stay....they're there for the isolation value as opposed to the treatment value.

I would think that in Hubei, the new hospitals that they're trying to build really fast, will be a mixture of hospital/quarantine center for those who've got possible symptoms/tested positive but not such severe symptoms. And those numbers are on top of what a normal season would require for hospital beds for heart problems/flu/pneumonia/other conditions.

They won't have enough isolation rooms in most hospitals to treat those numbers of people, to maintain barrier nursing between people who've tested positive and those who are in hospital for other reasons. It makes a lot of sense to have these fast-built specialized centers erected for this purpose.

 

[KALI]

WOW.

The death toll rose to 170 in China, and the number of infections jumped by nearly 30 percent.

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Now Has More Cases Than It Had of SARS

 

[Inthedetails]

The death toll rose to 170 in China, and the number of infections jumped by nearly 30 percent.

Coronavirus Live Updates: China Now Has More Cases Than It Had of SARS

And 162 of those deaths are in one province: Hubei, where the virus originated. The other 8 deaths within China are spread among 7 other provinces.

In other words, the virus remains concentrated in the original area, at least at this point.

jmo

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[margarita25]

As Coronavirus Explodes in China, Countries Struggle to Control Its Spread
The time to prevent more epidemics is now, and countries are trying to seize the moment.

“Australians flown home from Wuhan, China, will be quarantined on an island for two weeks. Americans, also evacuated from Wuhan, will be “temporarily housed” on an air base in California. And in South Korea, the police have been empowered to detain people who refuse to be quarantined.

For countries outside China, the time to prevent an epidemic is now, when cases are few and can be isolated. They are trying to seize the moment to protect themselves against the coronavirus outbreak, which has reached every province in China, sickening more than 7,700 people and killing 170.”

[...]

BBM

“But whether this virus can be contained depends on factors still unknown, like just how contagious it is and when in the course of the infection the virus starts to spread.”

Beating the dead horse again (I hate that expression), but until we know the above, then Japan not quarantining is bothering me now. Checking to see if there’s an update on Japan and their decision to not quarantine.

Reference post:

Japan is not quarantining:

Japan evacuates approximately 200 people from Wuhan

A plane carrying Japanese nationals who were evacuated from Wuhan landed at a Tokyo airport on Tuesday.

The passengers underwent health checks, but officials said there weren't plans to quarantine them.

Coronavirus spreads as U.S. evacuees return from Wuhan and U.S. mulls China travel ban

ETA:

Some articles re: Japan (in progress / running out of time on this post)

China coronavirus: Japanese evacuees describe confusion in Wuhan
Published: 11:30am, 29 Jan, 2020

Coronavirus: Japan and US fly citizens home as China death toll jumps

Japan bus driver infected with virus after driving Chinese tourists
Jan 28, 2020

Coronavirus hits tourism in China, Japan and Thailand 'hard,' costing billions
1 day ago

(Tagging as “Japan file -partial”)

 

[Inthedetails]

I think in those who've tested positive outside China and have been put into isolation, many of them are not having severe symptoms that would normally require a hospital stay....they're there for the isolation value as opposed to the treatment value.

snipped and bolded by me

Here are the notes about people outside of China who have been diagnosed:

Singapore. 10 cases. "Stable"
France. 5 cases. "2 serious"
Malaysia: 7 cases. "Stable"
Vietnam: 2 cases. "Stable"
Australia: 7 cases. "Stable"
UAE: 4 cases. "Stable"

There are 10 other countries with a total of 42 cases with no indication on status of patients.

Zero deaths outside China have been reported.

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[margarita25]

They landed early this am at the Air Force base. All were cleared in Alaska. They will all stay for 3 days at the base, and then followed at home for 2 weeks according to last reports. Those that get symptomatic and/or test positive will be sent to local hospital. Those wanting to stay the entire 14 days even if asymptomatic "may" stay.

I’ll insert this for you

Tag team?

(Thank you @Medstudies. That’s what I have to say about that.)

—-

Videos show the shockingly rapid progress China is making with 2 hospitals it's panic-building to fight the coronavirus

Medics in Wuhan, the city of 11 million people where the virus originated, have described overcrowded hospitals and a shortage of test kits, protective gear, and other medical equipment.

To alleviate this pressure, city authorities last Friday announced plans to build a new hospital from scratch in just six days, to be used beginning February 3.

Wuhan expanded those plans, and it is now urgently building two hospitals.

One is the Wuhan Huoshenshan Hospital, which is due to open February 3 with an area of 25,000 square meters, or 269,000 square feet, and 1,000 beds.

The second is the Leishenshan Hospital, which is due to open February 5 with an area of 30,000 square meters (323,000 square feet) and 1,300 beds.

They are located about 25 miles apart.

Live stream of construction on youtube:

So this is an extra 2300 beds that they will have. That may only just help cover a small dent in the overload of those currently sick and growing, as they said “alleviate the pressure”.

I wonder what the next percentage climb we’ll see is. So far we’ve seen 65% and 30ish% , respectively, within very short time periods. That’s a lot. Hoping those are the highest numbers we see, percentage wise.

 

[Bravo]

Oh that poor horse

 

[Amonet]

Panicked student trapped in locked-down Wuhan during the coronavirus outbreak says she is fearful of STARVING to death

'Right now most students over here don't have enough food because we didn't stockpile food in advance due to the sudden shutdown,' she posted to social media.

Student trapped in Wuhan doesn't know if she'll 'starve to death or die of the virus first' | Daily Mail Online

Classes and canteens full of hundreds of students are the very places to be avoided in the midst of a severe outbreak of flu/flu-like infections.

There have been photos in msm of people going out to shop for food in stores, just with very few people on the streets.

 

[margarita25]

“Japan File 2” / reference continued:

Coronavirus: which Asian tourist destination will take the biggest hit?
This Week in Asia / Economics
China coronavirus: Thailand, Japan or Singapore, which Asian tourist destination will take the biggest hit?
28 Jan, 2020

—-

Germany, Japan and Taiwan report first coronavirus patients who didn’t visit China
https://nypost.com/2020/01/28/germa...t-coronavirus-patients-who-didnt-visit-china/
Jan. 28, 2020

—

This Japanese Stock Just Went Parabolic Because of the Coronavirus
Jan. 28, 2020

“Shares in Japan's Kawamoto Corp., which makes protective health masks, have quadrupled in January due to coronavirus pandemic.”

—-


“Japan File 1” / qmfr:

As Coronavirus Explodes in China, Countries Struggle to Control Its Spread
The time to prevent more epidemics is now, and countries are trying to seize the moment.

“Australians flown home from Wuhan, China, will be quarantined on an island for two weeks. Americans, also evacuated from Wuhan, will be “temporarily housed” on an air base in California. And in South Korea, the police have been empowered to detain people who refuse to be quarantined.

For countries outside China, the time to prevent an epidemic is now, when cases are few and can be isolated. They are trying to seize the moment to protect themselves against the coronavirus outbreak, which has reached every province in China, sickening more than 7,700 people and killing 170.”

[...]

BBM

“But whether this virus can be contained depends on factors still unknown, like just how contagious it is and when in the course of the infection the virus starts to spread.”

Beating the dead horse again (I hate that expression), but until we know the above, then Japan not quarantining is bothering me now. Checking to see if there’s an update on Japan and their decision to not quarantine.

Reference post:



ETA:

Some articles re: Japan (in progress / running out of time on this post)

China coronavirus: Japanese evacuees describe confusion in Wuhan
Published: 11:30am, 29 Jan, 2020

Coronavirus: Japan and US fly citizens home as China death toll jumps

Japan bus driver infected with virus after driving Chinese tourists
Jan 28, 2020

Coronavirus hits tourism in China, Japan and Thailand 'hard,' costing billions
1 day ago

(Tagging as “Japan file -partial”)

 

[Amonet]

And 162 of those deaths are in one province: Hubei, where the virus originated. The other 8 deaths within China are spread among 7 other provinces.

In other words, the virus remains concentrated in the original area, at least at this point.

jmo

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

It's the mortality rate in other places than Hubei that I think will have more information in them, especially those outside China that we can be more sure of the ring containment methods being used.

In Hubei the actual mortality rate is probably something like:

number of deaths /confirmed infections approx one week ago * a multiplier to account for those who were infected a week ago but haven't presented to a hospital for confirmatory tests

So that's about:
162/(500 * the unknown multiplier), which could be five, ten, twenty...who knows.

I'm not very good at math, but I think that's the right formula above with the brackets?

 

[Medstudies]

Dbm. Dup. And user error

 

[Inthedetails]

It's the mortality rate in other places than Hubei that I think will have more information in them, especially those outside China that we can be more sure of the ring containment methods being used.

In Hubei the actual mortality rate is probably something like:

number of deaths /confirmed infections approx one week ago * a multiplier to account for those who were infected a week ago but haven't presented to a hospital for confirmatory tests

So that's about:
162/(500 * the unknown multiplier), which could be five, ten, twenty...who knows.

I'm not very good at math, but I think that's the right formula above with the brackets?

For Hubei, current numbers (that have been reported....I don't necessarily trust them):

4586 cases diagnosed:
711 serious
277 critical
162 deaths

The numbers don't indicate how many people are no longer sick and who have recovered. That's an unknown, imo.

The numbers of Hubei are WAY higher than any other location. No other location has reported cases anywhere near the number reported in Hubei.

jmo

Tracking coronavirus: Map, data and timeline

 

[Medstudies]

Welcome to the dark side lol we have cookies. Congrats I always enjoy your posts.

Haha, Thanks! Hey, who knew about the cookies? If I had only known


I always enjoy yours too!

edit: yeah ...errors

 

[Amonet]

I really should refrain from posting today/tonight. Too much going on.
He was the guy who lied about exposure and then exposed the healthcare workers? I think?

It is very important for people to be honest when a doctor asks them if they've recently traveled abroad.

When all that was going on, I thought that there was a high chance of the people that man was living with coming down with Ebola, too. And they didn't, even though they were living with him in the same apartment!

And another thing I think is important to remember is that the patients cared for at the specialist infectious diseases center in Atlanta, there wasn't spread to staff due to the stronger barrier nursing methods and the extra training the staff there have for dealing with such infections.