I wish you had included in the options an "I don't know". I honestly can't tell yet. I pray that she is still alive and well. When LP said on the NG show that KC left the family home because her mother had throttled/choked her over the stolen money, that gave me renewed hope that KC has had friends hide Caylee or something along those lines. There could be many possible reasons for KC "lying", or not as much of it might be lies as the media seem to think. You never know. I think it's certainly possible that Caylee could have died completely accidentally while Casey or any of her friends were watching her. There could even have been a predator who took advantage of the situation KC was in, having to live here and there, having to have friends help with Caylee, who knows, even maybe living out of her vehicle at some point. Anything could have happened. In those last weeks due to KC being on her own having to stay with this friend or that, and all their roommates and friends and acquaintances, and all the new acquaintances through the club, Caylee could have come into contact with a bad person, or a very intoxicated person, even possibly a complete stranger, somewhere along the line. You just never know. I am not making any accusation toward any individual, I have no suspicion of any particular person.
But I do still think it's possible that KC had someone take the child somewhere and believes that she is okay. She could be refusing to name this person so as not to implicate them or so as to wait out a legal waiting period in an adoption, or who knows what (though I see little reason to think KC would consider giving the child up for adoption, I personally believe she did NOT have a motive to get rid of her child, there is no evidence that she wanted to, but after the alleged choking incident, you never know.) It's also possible that someone in the group, or even a babysitter, took advantage of KC's trust. It's entirely possible that KC does not feel she can name someone who has Caylee, or someone who harmed Caylee, either way. There are myriad possibilities in this case. My opinion only of course. So I answer: Don't know.