Ebola outbreak - general thread #7

[Detective Klimpt]

The thing is, we don't know about these people until we hear about the initial contact with the hospital. Does anyone out there know the number of how many people are coming Over from Africa, including HCW?

Any guesses? Do we know generally speaking what the outlook risk in in the US?

It is about 150 per day--not sure if that includes HCW

150 people a day that are allowed to be careless about their contacts with others and then can get a fever 7 days later and end up with Ebola. What is wrong with this picture? I don't think people are over-reacting, I think some are under-reacting. The controls should be on the other end, not the receiving end. Don't ask me how they are going to do this. This country's political correctness is going to cause a lot of deaths.

 

[nrdsb4]

Watching CNN right now. The NYC health commissioner just stated that his fever was NOT 103. when he reported it, but 100.3. She stated absolutely that the media who reported the 103. number got it wrong. That's actually a big difference in terms of how sick he was when he reported it.

 

[nrdsb4]

Now of course that doesn't apply to the patients, keeping them quiet would mean either bribing/blackmailing or killing them. If they test negative they don't even need to know what they were tested for, but if they test positive it will be pretty obvious when they are surrounded by medical staff in PPE suits.

True. And a patient "bleeding from orifices" was able to physically remove himself without being observed? Sorry, that just defies belief.

 

[oh_gal]

The same thought occurred to me. Is the protocol now to do two tests within 48 hours, or only two tests within 48 hours if the first test is negative?

Was Amber's second test positive or negative? I'm going to scroll back to see if I can find the answer myself, but if anyone else knows, thank you!

 

[Hiandmighty]

Yes, just read his fever was 100.3 so it sounds like he was self monitoring and caught it right at the uptick...

 

[oh_gal]

I have to agree. I was just reading about another doctor who came from Africa. He self-isolated. He didn't go out. He had relatives bringing food for 21 days.
But we obviously can not count on everybody to be responsible like that.
So we might have to make them.

And there it is. The "right" thing to do, when one has either come from an affected geographical country, or recently treated someone with the disease.
While I certainly don't wish that Amber Vinson ever got Ebola, and am glad she's recovering, I do wish she had had the forethought to self-quarantine herself instead of jumping on a plane -- even in the absence of symptoms, because we all know how that turned out.

 

[Sonya610]

True. And a patient "bleeding from orifices" was able to physically remove himself without being observed? Sorry, that just defies belief.

I don't know what you are referring to. (oh, was it in the article? LOL...I didn't actually read the article on account of the source....but theoretically I can see why some folks would be highly motivated to keep the public from panicking).

 

[SCHMAE]

Who knows what they mean by gastrointestinal "symptoms"
That indicates more than one. Surely it wasn't just heartburn and flatulence...
One article says he was vomiting, another says diarrhea...
At any rate, I am going with his viral load being too low to infect the public (hopefully not his fiance either )

"On Tuesday he began to feel tired and developed a fever and diarrhoea on Thursday"
http://m.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-29751495

"A health care worker at the hospital said that Dr. Spencer seemed very sick, and it was unclear to the medical staff why he had not gone to the hospital earlier, since his fever was high."

http://mobile.nytimes.com/2014/10/2...hospital-in-new-york-city.html?_r=0&referrer=

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So between Tues and Thur, he was sick. The line is so murky between contagious and not. You can spread it only when you become 'symptomatic' but WHICH symptoms? Surely if he felt tired, he was having symptoms. So does that statement mean he developed a fever on tues or wed or thursday ? Or did he only feel tired 2 days and on Thursday develop fever and diarrhea ?
I am curious to see how NY handles this vs. TX. Texas, sadly, was the first and to me they seemed to totally drop the ball. However, if only the 2 nurses who had contact with Duncan got it and no other people in or around Dallas area get sick in the next week or two, then I would guess it was managed fairly well, despite looking like a marx brothers circus . We shall see.

 

[nrdsb4]

I don't know what you are referring to. (oh, was it in the article? LOL...I didn't actually read the article on account of the source....but theoretically I can see why some folks would be highly motivated to keep the public from panicking).

Yeah, it was in the quoted section above.

 

[Lyra500]

"developed a fever, nausea, pain and fatigue Wednesday night."

"The health department said a special ambulance unit transported a patient suffering from a fever and gastrointestinal symptoms."
http://www.cnn.com/2014/10/23/health/new-york-possible-ebola-case/index.html

Sounds like he did have vomiting and diarrhea as well as fever, but that's just my opinion... he was sick well before 10-11:00am Thursday.
Before midnight at least.

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Fever, nasuea pain and fatgue - how can this be extrapolated to state that he probably had diarrhoea and vomiting?

None of the above symptoms have anything to do with diarrhoea and nausea is not vomiting.

 

[nrdsb4]

So between Tues and Thur, he was sick. The line is so murky between contagious and not. You can spread it only when you become 'symptomatic' but WHICH symptoms? Surely if he felt tired, he was having symptoms. So does that statement mean he developed a fever on tues or wed or thursday ? Or did he only feel tired 2 days and on Thursday develop fever and diarrhea ?
I am curious to see how NY handles this vs. TX. Texas, sadly, was the first and to me they seemed to totally drop the ball. However, if only the 2 nurses who had contact with Duncan got it and no other people in or around Dallas area get sick in the next week or two, then I would guess it was managed fairly well, despite looking like a marx brothers circus . We shall see.

Mr. Duncan became symptomatic on Sept. 24. He didn't present to Presby the first time until Sept.26. He was admitted to Presby on Sept. 28. So he was potentially infectious for 4 days. He came into contact with at least 48 people IIRC. None of those people has yet shown signs of the disease. If they in fact do not become infected, it certainly indicates that the illness is not "EASILY" spread with simple fatigue or low grade fever.

These facts SHOULD at minimum inspire cautious optimism. But I think some people just really prefer to always think of worst case scenarios, no matter how remote their possibility.

 

[Gardenlady]

So between Tues and Thur, he was sick. The line is so murky between contagious and not. You can spread it only when you become 'symptomatic' but WHICH symptoms? Surely if he felt tired, he was having symptoms. So does that statement mean he developed a fever on tues or wed or thursday ? Or did he only feel tired 2 days and on Thursday develop fever and diarrhea ?
I am curious to see how NY handles this vs. TX. Texas, sadly, was the first and to me they seemed to totally drop the ball. However, if only the 2 nurses who had contact with Duncan got it and no other people in or around Dallas area get sick in the next week or two, then I would guess it was managed fairly well, despite looking like a marx brothers circus . We shall see.

Marx Brothers circus lol! Excellent description. Yes, if it is only "just" (and I don't mean to gloss over the seriousness of their illnesses by using "just") Ms Pham and Ms Vinson, then it would be fairly well done despite what looked like bumbling chaos.


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[nrdsb4]

Fever, nasuea pain and fatgue - how can this be extrapolated to state that he probably had diarrhoea and vomiting?

None of the above symptoms have anything to do with diarrhoea and nausea is not vomiting.

Well, "anonymous sources" reported he was vomiting, so of course that "in fact means he was vomiting." Just as news reports state that his first symptom was a 103.0 fever, which was just contradicted by the NY Dept. of Health head, stating it was 100.3.

 

[Lyra500]

I'm not in a panic. Just a little confused about how Writebol and the reporter got it.
They say they were not around anyone near death from ebola.
I am not clear on what Mrs. Writebol was doing. I have heard conflicting reports <--
No surprise there!

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One of the very early reports I read about Mrs Writebol was that she helped clincians out of their PPE at the end of their shift - so that would have provided ample opportunity to be infected if not done perfectly each time.

 

[Lyra500]

I think the terminology "hauled off" is rather inflammatory rather than "transported by ambulance." I wonder why they made that word choice?

It does make it sound as if they lassooed him and dragged him to hospital lashed to the back of a truck.

 

[hockeymom]

The good news is,how sick could he really have felt if he jogged,went bowling,went to restaurants? I don't know about you,but when ?I don't feel good,I am not that active.

 

[nrdsb4]

It does make it sound as if they lassooed him and dragged him to hospital lashed to the back of a truck.

Lol, I almost choked on my coffee. Funny not funny image.

 

[Elley Mae]

The New York City Health Department tells CBS News the fever was low-grade, 100.3 degrees, not 103 degrees as was originally, widely reported.

http://www.cbsnews.com/news/ebola-craig-spencer-nyc-doctor-who-has-ebola-being-praised/


bbm

 

[SteveS]

It sounds to me like Spencer was just as sensitive to his own medical situation as we would wish, and as we would be if we were in that same situation. He imo was running a constant double-check on how he felt, his temp, and so on.

The assumption by many is that if he went to the hospital on Thursday, he probably was symptomatic for days and then finally relented. But I would wager that the first time he had ANY valid reason to suspect he was ebola-stricken was that morning.

Everybody gets tired, so in the moment he felt tired. But once he went to the hospital and looked back, what appeared to be normal life gets put under a microscope to wonder if that was the first tiny (but non-symptomatic) sign. Then again, it's also possible that he was merely tired, got some rest, and felt fine the next day.

 

[Harmony 2]

Heads up- new thread is being created- be ready to move in a bit- if you are in the process of writing a lengthy post or copying/pasting from an article it might be best to post it on the new thread.

I will be right back with the link for the new thread.