I’m going to take a stab at this. If IDI then:They have to be on the smaller side to get in the window but big enough to carry JBR around while she was not conscious.
True, unless he didn't plan to kidnap her. I don't believe this was a kidnapping, but a straight murder staged as a botched kidnapping.
They would have had to know the Ramsey’s holiday schedule, or really have been lucky because:
*What if they were to have had friends or family stay with them and needed a spare bedroom down stairs?
Someone who makes B&E a profession will have watched the family for weeks and even months before making a move. Details like that are easy enough for him to find out in advance, eg: from phone taps, keeping in mind that he claimed to be "familiar with police counter-measures", and there's no reason to believe that wasn't true. In the case of a B&E with a view to commit murder, a professional will have thoroughly done his homework beforehand.
Then again, those are the risks they take.
*What if sleeping habits and routines change during the holidays and JBR slept with her parents or in her brothers room that night
A pro can enter your bedroom in the dead of night and walk off with just about everything in it without you knowing a thing about it 'til sunrise
*What if the family stayed up late Christmas night admiring/playing with their new toys
A family with young kids? Highly doubtful the kids would have been able to keep their eyes open much past midnight. And again that's the kind of risk an intruder will take. If something had gone wrong with his plan the first night, he would have simply gone home and tried again another night.
*What if the Ramsey’s went to visit their family for a few days, like a lot of us do at Christmas and just never came home that night at all
Boxing Day is a good day to choose for that precise reason. Xmas is over and everyone's tired. Not likely they're about to take off on a trip right away and at night. Also the perp could have been watching from a stake-out position and watched to see if the family took suitcases etc to the car. Otherwise, as above. This is really just another planning detail. And assuming months of planning went into this as is highly likely, that's hardly a detail they would have overlooked.
*What if they had come home very late but got up very early? No time to do the deed.
A family with young kids is hardly likely to come home very late. Midnight would be really pushing it. No perp will strike much before the so-called witching hours (1.30 a.m. - 4.30 a.m), when most people are sound asleep.
As for the chance that the Rs might get up early. They did get up early (or at least Patsy did), and the perp would have planned for that. And indeed, I believe the RN was written precisely to slow down the Rs in case they woke up early, went to JB's room, saw her missing, searched the house and called the police too soon before he had a chance to do the deed and make his getawar. By tricking them into thinkine she had been kidnapped, no one was likely to search the basement right away, and indeed no one did or else they didnt do a thorough search at first.
The note was also a way to discourage them from calling the police too fast. They would see a low asking figure ($118, 000) and maybe figure it was just worthwhile paying it without calling the cops so as to be sure to get JB back. The perp would already have known they could afford it from his knowledge of theirr finances. Using that precise figure was also a way to signal to the Rs that he had knowledge of their affairs that he might use against them if they didn't co-operate (i.e. not call the cops). The RN goes on at length to try to scare them into not calling the police. Making them think there was a group of them and not just one actor, was another scare tactic. Highly unlikely that Patsy was thinking about all of this just to cover up a mistake.
*What if JBR had stayed overnight with her cousins that night?
As above. Just another planning detail.
They would have to know the materials available to them to write the ransom note and also to know that the house alarm system was not in use.[They would have also know that they would have had time to compose it. This may indicate a irrational, spur of the moment, crime of opportunity
Almost every home has paper and pens lying around and the perp had hours to find some. But just in case, he might have brought his own. Or the RN might have been something he only thought about when he was in the house and saw the pad. As this was not a kidnap as such, the RN was not an indispensible part of his plan.
They had to have been very alert and coherent to enter and move around the dark house without creating noise, being detected, or leaving evidence.
First of all, in most cases a pro won't make a move until the witching hours (between 1.30 a.m. and 4. 30 a.m.) when most householders will be in deep R.E.M. sleep. Secondly, it's their job to move around soundlessly. That's all part of what a professional criminal does. As for evidence, they did leave evidence.
This indicates that drugs were probably not in use by the intruder at the time.If they did the crime because they were high or drunk, they were in the house long enough before the Ramsey’s came home to come off the high, in which case they would probably abort their plan of attack.
I don't think this crime was committed because the perp was either high or drunk.
They weren’t likely pedophiles because there was no trace of semen or saliva. What’s left? Even if you masturbate in your pants while killing the child, it would have left fibers around her body. The is really a lot of work to go through to commit vaginal penetration of part of a paintbrush (that you didn’t even know would be available to you) or digital penetration that was not even aggressive enough to leave skin cells.
IMO, this was not a sex killing as such, but a murder with gratuitous sex elements thrown in. A pro would have used gloves.
It would seem that the intruder wanted her dead more then they wanted to have sex with her, otherwise they would have exited the house with her in their arms and to leave the intruder free to offend her without the risk of getting caught.
Exactly. You got it.