Identified! FL - Big Cypress Natl Preserve, Male Hiker, Denim & “Mostly Harmless” July 2018 - Vance Rodriguez#4

[GatorFL]

How far, by the trail MH took, would it be from March 17, 2018 Paisley, FL to Apr 13, 2018 Big Cypress Ochopee, Florida? Has anybody figured out his average distance per day between those two points to see if, near the end, he was traveling at his usual speed?

241 miles, so a little less than the 10 miles per day average.

 

[GatorFL]

I think it's really important for us not to have assumptions incorrectly so I'll list a some here that need clearing up:

1) Multiple hikers have discussed MH saying he had a sister. Since it isn't just 1 or 2, then he's most likely to have said that. From saying it, we can either believe him or think he's telling lies. If he's telling such a fundamental lie then we can't really believe a single thing he says which leaves us at almost nothing! We can't say he's lying about a sister but truthful about living in New York or truthful about being in IT. To dismiss him having a sister after saying he has one to multiple people means you must not consider anything he said as truth and only go by what can be proven that he did and credible people have witnessed.

2) If he had a sister then at least one hiker has discussed him saying he stayed (not visited) with her before the FT hike. There is a question about whether that hiker's account is credible though so I would suggest we need to find out whether other hikers said he stayed with her or not.

3) There seems to be some different interpretation about his health. Definitely some hikers have said he wanted to do these hikes while he could. Some people, possibly even some hikers, have assumed that meant he was dying. I would suggest we need to find out what all of these hikers actually discussed that he said about that. Did he just say do these hikes while he could, possibly just meaning he's getting older and you never know or, did he actually say anything about dying or having very bad health issues? Maybe he just meant his knees were going to get too bad to be able to do it.

4) The police have said they believe he had been living in the Lake George area just before the hikes. Why are they saying this? Why won't they tell people why they believe this? If people knew, they would be able to judge whether it is a possibility, probable or for sure.

5) There should not be the assumption that, just because the police and us have not identified him that he hasn't been identified by anyone such as his sister. There can be reasons why people have identified him but haven't come forward to say so.

6) Two hikers together stayed where MH was on July 3, 20 days before he was found. Only, it's a huge area that was an air strip. They created a video that included some footage of that camp, although not MH or his tent. We know they stayed overnight but they could have been hundreds of feet away most of the time, they could have been in their tent most of the time and they could have been sleeping most of the time. Until they say they were 50 ft away from MH's tent for 5 hours, it can't be assumed that he had a 5 hour opportunity to reach out to them. He could have been asleep when they were near and, when they were further away, they were too far for him to hear them.

Note that I'm not trying to assume anything here. If someone can say otherwise to what's above then great, we can clear that up! I'm just suggesting we get these confusions sorted out because I think we can. I will try to contribute by further researching some of these points.

Now I'm going to try to find these official podcasts spoken about. There is so much info on this case in internetland, someone can always help point me to these and any other fundamental and good information that should be seen. We should actually make some kind of sticky post with a list of it. Maybe there is but I don't know about it!

I think you've made a lot of assumptions in this, which is what you said you wanted to clear up.

I won't get into the first 5 points, but the 6th I think is wrong in several ways. Nobles Camp is built on an old bush airstrip, it is not very big. We know the other hikers saw his tent, but not him, for their whole time camping there. They even left him water. There are posts by Mike Gormley on FB about where MH's tent was, it was in a treed area of the camp close to the freshwater pond. The hikers who took the video were out in the open area of the camp. You're also making assumptions on how close or far they camped in relation to his tent.

 

[gfinale]

Was MH found in his tent with his FT map intact? If he'd lost that map or it had been damaged, it could cause him not to go far. He may not have even known there was a rest stop 5 km away.

 

[gfinale]

241 miles, so a little less than the 10 miles per day average.

It sounds like not substantially enough to thinking he was degrading before Apr 13, 2018 though, sound correct? To say a different way, it seems he was doing fine until at least Apr 13, his last sighting and I think that hiker said he looked fine too.

 

[gfinale]

I think you've made a lot of assumptions in this, which is what you said you wanted to clear up.

I won't get into the first 5 points, but the 6th I think is wrong in several ways. Nobles Camp is built on an old bush airstrip, it is not very big. We know the other hikers saw his tent, but not him, for their whole time camping there. They even left him water. There are posts by Mike Gormley on FB about where MH's tent was, it was in a treed area of the camp close to the freshwater pond. The hikers who took the video were out in the open area of the camp. You're also making assumptions on how close or far they camped in relation to his tent.

OK, so you seem to be saying Noble's Camp is small enough that they would have seen or hear him if he'd left his tent while they were up. I guess the only other question is how long they were awake while there unless you know it was 5 hours.

As for how far between tents, they called out to no answer, he could have been on the run, grass was high all around and, if the place had been big, I don't think they would have camped near him. That's all. Now, we've established the area isn't big.

 

[gfinale]

FL - FL - Big Cypress National Preserve, Male hiker, "Denim" and "Mostly Harmless", 23 July 2018 #4

OK, so we really don't have anyone credible saying he stayed with his sister. I'll buy that unless we find others say he did later. It would help explain why his sister is not looking by now.

 

[MaryFromFla]

Do we know if there has been any credible updates on the genetic genealogy? Something that can be shared here?

 

[branmuffin]

How far, by the trail MH took, would it be from March 17, 2018 Paisley, FL to Apr 13, 2018 Big Cypress Ochopee, Florida? Has anybody figured out his average distance per day between those two points to see if, near the end, he was traveling at his usual speed?

I don't see how he could have been traveling at his usual 10 miles per day. I just checked an as the crow flies distance of 205 miles from Paisley to Big Cypress.

 

[gfinale]

I don't see how he could have been traveling at his usual 10 miles per day. I just checked an as the crow flies distance of 205 miles from Paisley to Big Cypress.

Gator said 241 above and that MH was therefore traveling a little less than normal. That's 241 in 27? days or 9 mi a day. To me, it doesn't seem substantial enough to say he was deteriorating much at that time though. Most of the deterioration came after Apr 13, 2018 which means most of it occurred near his final place. So, something happened to him near the end, just after Apr 13, 2013, that prevented him from continuing for some time or he packed it in. I'm inclined to the former.

 

[branmuffin]

I think you've made a lot of assumptions in this, which is what you said you wanted to clear up.

I won't get into the first 5 points, but the 6th I think is wrong in several ways. Nobles Camp is built on an old bush airstrip, it is not very big. We know the other hikers saw his tent, but not him, for their whole time camping there. They even left him water. There are posts by Mike Gormley on FB about where MH's tent was, it was in a treed area of the camp close to the freshwater pond. The hikers who took the video were out in the open area of the camp. You're also making assumptions on how close or far they camped in relation to his tent.

According to one of the officer's report his tent was 100 feet from the main trail.

 

[GatorFL]

According to one of the officer's report his tent was 100 feet from the main trail.

Here is a picture, the camp itself is 100' off the trail. Mike said MH's tent would have been just to the left of the red marker. The other hikers were in the open area beyond that, somewhere.

I can't be sure but I think the 100' came from the hikers who discovered MH dead. Some of that 911 phone call was in the podcast I'll have to listen again.

I plan on hiking out there this Saturday, weather permitting.

 

[branmuffin]

Gator said 241 above and that MH was therefore traveling a little less than normal. That's 241 in 27? days or 9 mi a day. To me, it doesn't seem substantial enough to say he was deteriorating much at that time though. Most of the deterioration came after Apr 13, 2018 which means most of it occurred near his final place. So, something happened to him near the end, just after Apr 13, 2013, that prevented him from continuing for some time or he packed it in. I'm inclined to the former.

I did say 'as the crow flies'! I am agreement with you regarding the reason why he stayed at Noble camp: something happened to him. I have never been on board with the McCandless itinerant philosophy where MH chose to completely isolate himself from society and his death on the trail was just a side effect.

I've seen some of the excerpts from his notes regarding the game he was working on. I'm not computer savvy but I didn't see any kind of deterioration of his mind. It just stops. There's no dates or anything but his writing doesn't change.

 

[branmuffin]

View attachment 258254

Here is a picture, the camp itself is 100' off the trail. Mike said MH's tent would have been just to the left of the red marker. The other hikers were in the open area beyond that, somewhere.

I can't be sure but I think the 100' came from the hikers who discovered MH dead. Some of that 911 phone call was in the podcast I'll have to listen again.

I plan on hiking out there this Saturday, weather permitting.

As far as I'm concerned, I'm more likely to believe the report from LE that the tent was 100 feet from the main trail. Those pics the two men took of their campsite was right out in the open. How did they know it was there considering the grass was waist high. His tent was under trees from what I can make out from images I have seen of the tent. If MH was closer to the open trail I think many more people would have seen his tent earlier when the grass wasn't so high.

 

[branmuffin]

View attachment 258254

Here is a picture, the camp itself is 100' off the trail. Mike said MH's tent would have been just to the left of the red marker. The other hikers were in the open area beyond that, somewhere.

I can't be sure but I think the 100' came from the hikers who discovered MH dead. Some of that 911 phone call was in the podcast I'll have to listen again.

I plan on hiking out there this Saturday, weather permitting.

The 100 feet distance is from the police report. Those who came to the scene. The written report also says the UID was about 100 feet from Nobel camp site.

LE wasn't relying on heresay. They were there.

 

[GatorFL]

As far as I'm concerned, I'm more likely to believe the report from LE that the tent was 100 feet from the main trail. Those pics the two men took of their campsite was right out in the open. How did they know it was there considering the grass was waist high. His tent was under trees from what I can make out from images I have seen of the tent. If MH was closer to the open trail I think many more people would have seen his tent earlier when the grass wasn't so high.

The whole area is the campsite, it lies about 100' off the trail, just as the picture I posted shows. The camp is marked that way on the hiking guides. Most primitive camps are off the main trail a bit.

Armando Cruz said they saw MH's tent. If you watched the video the grass wasn't too bad, nowhere near waist high out in the open. But I imagine it gets higher closer to the perimeter where it is never bush hogged down.

You're welcome to grab some boots and 4 liters of water and meet me out there on Saturday.

 

[GatorFL]

Gator said 241 above and that MH was therefore traveling a little less than normal. That's 241 in 27? days or 9 mi a day. To me, it doesn't seem substantial enough to say he was deteriorating much at that time though. Most of the deterioration came after Apr 13, 2018 which means most of it occurred near his final place. So, something happened to him near the end, just after Apr 13, 2013, that prevented him from continuing for some time or he packed it in. I'm inclined to the former.

What is interesting about the timeline, and this is pure speculation on my part. One reason I don't think the report from the hiker who said MH told her he had visited his sister in the Sarasota/Ft. Myers area before he started the FT makes sense. If he took the western track around Lake Okeechobee, he would have been no more than 30-40 miles from either of those cities, an easy diversion for a day or two and would not have killed his average at all.

 

[branmuffin]

The whole area is the campsite, it lies about 100' off the trail, just as the picture I posted shows. The camp is marked that way on the hiking guides. Most primitive camps are off the main trail a bit.

Armando Cruz said they saw MH's tent. If you watched the video the grass wasn't too bad, nowhere near waist high out in the open. But I imagine it gets higher closer to the perimeter where it is never bush hogged down.

You're welcome to grab some boots and 4 liters of water and meet me out there on Saturday.

I live in Ontario. No travel to the States, at the moment. I would love to go there, tbh. I'd like to see for myself just exactly where his tent was. I have a place in Florida on the Gulf Coast which is about 2 hours away. When it's safe to go to Florida, I'll mosey on down there.

 

[GatorFL]

I live in Ontario. No travel to the States, at the moment. I would love to go there, tbh. I'd like to see for myself just exactly where his tent was. I have a place in Florida on the Gulf Coast which is about 2 hours away. When it's safe to go to Florida, I'll mosey on down there.

It's about an hour and a half drive for me. It should be about a 4-5 hour hike. I'll try and document with pictures and will post them here so we can have better evidence of the campsite. It looks like a small ficus tree in the tent photos, that's not the most common plant in a campsite so I hope I can pinpoint where his tent was.

 

[carbuff]

If I lived closer than Massachusetts, I'd join you...

 

[branmuffin]

What is interesting about the timeline, and this is pure speculation on my part. One reason I don't think the report from the hiker who said MH told her he had visited his sister in the Sarasota/Ft. Myers area before he started the FT makes sense. If he took the western track around Lake Okeechobee, he would have been no more than 30-40 miles from either of those cities, an easy diversion for a day or two and would not have killed his average at all.

One thing I realized after reading accounts of other hikers, is that some seasoned hikers, Chris Fowler included, leave the trail for awhile, stay with friends or just chill in an area that interests them then pick up the trail after hitching a ride to pick it up again. It's not as if it's the Boston marathon where taking the subway or having someone drop you two miles from the finish line disqualifies you.