Peter Brendt
New Member
continued from post 185
4.) The homicidal john theory
The homicidal john theory is based on the idea, the unsub would call the victims, make out with them and kills them on the date. The list of reasons, why this is impossible is long enough to fill an encyclopedia, so I limit this to the most important ones:
a.) Maureen Brainard-Barnes had reached NYC that morning coming from Norwich. She had rented a room in the hotel in 46th street for that day to meet with clients. It is important to keep in mind, MBB didn't prostitute herself to feed a drug habit or something. What drove her to do it was pure need to keep a roof over her child's head. Means, she would do it to get a certain amount of money, not to gain unlimited money to feed an unlimited habit of drug abuse.
So she did, what she did and after it was done, she went for the bus terminal at the Port Authority from where she could get a bus to change at the transit probably into a train going to Norwich. But, according to what she said to friends, she was robbed. She asked those friends whether they could give her a ride but those friends couldn't. Which makes them either not the best of all friends or they considered the situation as uncritical. That makes me think, the robber didn't get all of Maureen's money. She had met with clients all over the day, she had some hundred dollars at least. Now, who would carry that kind of money in the wallet? In a city like NYC? Reasonable people put $50 or what they need in the purse and the rest hidden on the person. So all seems to indicate, she had still money for the way home. There was no need for another quick trick. And, as Maureen told those friends, all she wanted was going home. So whoever called, I seriously doubt, he could get a date with her that night anymore. So no homicidal john in that case. The only one, who could get to her was someone physically at that bus terminal. And such a location allows only two approaches: Ruse to lure here to a better fitting location or surprising blitz-attack. Only there's a catch: How would a serial killer know, there is a potential victim that night at that bus terminal? Why would he hunt there while not far away is an area full of clubs and hour hotels? That indicates, she was no random victim. The only way, this would work is, if he has chosen Maureen long before and stalked her. If he knew where she was.
b.) The next one is Melissa Barthelmy. She got calls, she had also earlier meetings with clients, a business day as usual. But at some point, she is seen near to the apartment, she lived in with her pimp/bf, waiting for someone who is supposed to bring her to another client. That apartment is in the Bronx. And from that point on, she is missing.
That means, if this john or client would be the hypothetical homicidal john, he would have changed his hunting method over the last two years entirely. Which is unlikely since for medium to high organized offenders the hunt is part of the ritual. Thus a change in the hunting method would have also changed what he would get out of his game. Compare that to what I wrote in 3. about him. He would have changed from the self-perception of a dark hunter on a mission in the night to the self-perception of kind of a trapper or, lets say it a mere homicidal john. It would take from the game, what makes it worth to play it in the first place.
Of course, one can argue, he did so because he is already spiraling down. But the time distance of two years between Maureen and Melissa is too long to support that. An SK in the spiraling phase would have a much higher kill frequency. Look at Bundy or Dahmer for comparison.
So, by all means, he would have stuck with being a stalker, because that is what gives him the first taste of power over his victim. And it would be so easy. He only needed to wait till she comes back and snatch her. It would be dark, the streets would be empty. It would take only a few minutes. Nobody would notice. How opposite to the homicidal john, who let his victims bring to him. Even he does the driving himself, neighbors talk, and after all this media attention, there would be one, coming forward and say: Look at this neighbor, he has all the times prostitutes there, I saw them coming but not going and one, two or three or four looked like those girls from the news.
c.) Megan Waterman
First thing to see here is, she visited LI about twice a month to conduct business with her LI customers. So she was regularly there, it was a pattern. The same as it was a pattern to be the rest of the month in NYC and I somehow doubt, Akeem Cruz allowed her to not work in that time.
So, we have here the weird thing with, the john didn't allow her to take a phone with her. The funny part is, we have not even a john in this case. Nobody mentions actually a john! All we know is, she wandered out of the hotel. Given that she had according to her mother a sweet tooth, and given, that she allegedly also smoked and since most hotels have no cigarette vending machines anymore and candy costs there an arm and a leg ... well, there is that convenience store really nearby. The only problem, one has to cross that empty slot. And it was dark, not many people on the streets anymore.
The john outside of the hotel is mere assumption. But the empty spot is a fact. And that is the perfect place to ambush a victim, especially if the offender knows the patterns because he had stalked her for a while. And once more, while the situation would be impossible for a hypothetical homicidal john, due to his neighbors, due to the fact, someone could see the car, due to the high risk (one could say nada and then there would be a witness out there, who could later come forward), the situation is perfect for a stalker type.
d.) Amber Lynn Costello
As mentioned above, she is the tallest of all four victims. So our unsub obviously gained more self-esteem as killer and is now sure, he cas also take taller victims, he would perceive as also stronger. That indicates, he has honed his abilities. What abilities? Using a phone? Not likely. That ability is nothing, that would cause an increase in self-esteem. So we talk about hunting abilities here, specifically the ability to overwhelm the victim fast and without giving her a chance to cause a ruckus.
Now we're at this $1500 client. Amber Lynn Costello is one of the two victims who had definitively a client that night. Of course, an in the meantime experienced SK would drag attention by making $1500 offers and he would call a number of times to make sure, he can be later caught by tower dump ... NOT. Aside of all the other problems like neighbors, potential victims, the possibility one of his targets denies to visit him, this would have additional risks. Tower dumps for example. You don't get name and address when the john calls from a burner, but what you can get is, where the burner was used. So that would be the first thing, LE checks. And they came up with nothing. How can that be? Because they found those locations and obviously also some of the johns (for example the police officers) and it didn't pan out. And if LE dismisses someone as suspect, they don't publish the names in the media.
But that means, those burners didn't lead to any viable suspects. So aside of the other problems, a homicidal john would face, he also appears to have maged to call without calling. Or did he maybe not call at all? Because when Amber returned from that client, she would have been in the same situation as Melissa Barthelmy. Out in a dark empty street, about to go in the house where she lived. Optimal for a stalker and blitz-attacker. Do me a favor and compare that to Watts' blitz-attacks. That is how it works
So, four situations optimal for a stalker and a blitz-attacker and pretty lousy or entirely impossible for a homicidal john. Okam's razor has a pretty clear answer to that.
Continued in next post ...
4.) The homicidal john theory
The homicidal john theory is based on the idea, the unsub would call the victims, make out with them and kills them on the date. The list of reasons, why this is impossible is long enough to fill an encyclopedia, so I limit this to the most important ones:
a.) Maureen Brainard-Barnes had reached NYC that morning coming from Norwich. She had rented a room in the hotel in 46th street for that day to meet with clients. It is important to keep in mind, MBB didn't prostitute herself to feed a drug habit or something. What drove her to do it was pure need to keep a roof over her child's head. Means, she would do it to get a certain amount of money, not to gain unlimited money to feed an unlimited habit of drug abuse.
So she did, what she did and after it was done, she went for the bus terminal at the Port Authority from where she could get a bus to change at the transit probably into a train going to Norwich. But, according to what she said to friends, she was robbed. She asked those friends whether they could give her a ride but those friends couldn't. Which makes them either not the best of all friends or they considered the situation as uncritical. That makes me think, the robber didn't get all of Maureen's money. She had met with clients all over the day, she had some hundred dollars at least. Now, who would carry that kind of money in the wallet? In a city like NYC? Reasonable people put $50 or what they need in the purse and the rest hidden on the person. So all seems to indicate, she had still money for the way home. There was no need for another quick trick. And, as Maureen told those friends, all she wanted was going home. So whoever called, I seriously doubt, he could get a date with her that night anymore. So no homicidal john in that case. The only one, who could get to her was someone physically at that bus terminal. And such a location allows only two approaches: Ruse to lure here to a better fitting location or surprising blitz-attack. Only there's a catch: How would a serial killer know, there is a potential victim that night at that bus terminal? Why would he hunt there while not far away is an area full of clubs and hour hotels? That indicates, she was no random victim. The only way, this would work is, if he has chosen Maureen long before and stalked her. If he knew where she was.
b.) The next one is Melissa Barthelmy. She got calls, she had also earlier meetings with clients, a business day as usual. But at some point, she is seen near to the apartment, she lived in with her pimp/bf, waiting for someone who is supposed to bring her to another client. That apartment is in the Bronx. And from that point on, she is missing.
That means, if this john or client would be the hypothetical homicidal john, he would have changed his hunting method over the last two years entirely. Which is unlikely since for medium to high organized offenders the hunt is part of the ritual. Thus a change in the hunting method would have also changed what he would get out of his game. Compare that to what I wrote in 3. about him. He would have changed from the self-perception of a dark hunter on a mission in the night to the self-perception of kind of a trapper or, lets say it a mere homicidal john. It would take from the game, what makes it worth to play it in the first place.
Of course, one can argue, he did so because he is already spiraling down. But the time distance of two years between Maureen and Melissa is too long to support that. An SK in the spiraling phase would have a much higher kill frequency. Look at Bundy or Dahmer for comparison.
So, by all means, he would have stuck with being a stalker, because that is what gives him the first taste of power over his victim. And it would be so easy. He only needed to wait till she comes back and snatch her. It would be dark, the streets would be empty. It would take only a few minutes. Nobody would notice. How opposite to the homicidal john, who let his victims bring to him. Even he does the driving himself, neighbors talk, and after all this media attention, there would be one, coming forward and say: Look at this neighbor, he has all the times prostitutes there, I saw them coming but not going and one, two or three or four looked like those girls from the news.
c.) Megan Waterman
First thing to see here is, she visited LI about twice a month to conduct business with her LI customers. So she was regularly there, it was a pattern. The same as it was a pattern to be the rest of the month in NYC and I somehow doubt, Akeem Cruz allowed her to not work in that time.
So, we have here the weird thing with, the john didn't allow her to take a phone with her. The funny part is, we have not even a john in this case. Nobody mentions actually a john! All we know is, she wandered out of the hotel. Given that she had according to her mother a sweet tooth, and given, that she allegedly also smoked and since most hotels have no cigarette vending machines anymore and candy costs there an arm and a leg ... well, there is that convenience store really nearby. The only problem, one has to cross that empty slot. And it was dark, not many people on the streets anymore.
The john outside of the hotel is mere assumption. But the empty spot is a fact. And that is the perfect place to ambush a victim, especially if the offender knows the patterns because he had stalked her for a while. And once more, while the situation would be impossible for a hypothetical homicidal john, due to his neighbors, due to the fact, someone could see the car, due to the high risk (one could say nada and then there would be a witness out there, who could later come forward), the situation is perfect for a stalker type.
d.) Amber Lynn Costello
As mentioned above, she is the tallest of all four victims. So our unsub obviously gained more self-esteem as killer and is now sure, he cas also take taller victims, he would perceive as also stronger. That indicates, he has honed his abilities. What abilities? Using a phone? Not likely. That ability is nothing, that would cause an increase in self-esteem. So we talk about hunting abilities here, specifically the ability to overwhelm the victim fast and without giving her a chance to cause a ruckus.
Now we're at this $1500 client. Amber Lynn Costello is one of the two victims who had definitively a client that night. Of course, an in the meantime experienced SK would drag attention by making $1500 offers and he would call a number of times to make sure, he can be later caught by tower dump ... NOT. Aside of all the other problems like neighbors, potential victims, the possibility one of his targets denies to visit him, this would have additional risks. Tower dumps for example. You don't get name and address when the john calls from a burner, but what you can get is, where the burner was used. So that would be the first thing, LE checks. And they came up with nothing. How can that be? Because they found those locations and obviously also some of the johns (for example the police officers) and it didn't pan out. And if LE dismisses someone as suspect, they don't publish the names in the media.
But that means, those burners didn't lead to any viable suspects. So aside of the other problems, a homicidal john would face, he also appears to have maged to call without calling. Or did he maybe not call at all? Because when Amber returned from that client, she would have been in the same situation as Melissa Barthelmy. Out in a dark empty street, about to go in the house where she lived. Optimal for a stalker and blitz-attacker. Do me a favor and compare that to Watts' blitz-attacks. That is how it works
So, four situations optimal for a stalker and a blitz-attacker and pretty lousy or entirely impossible for a homicidal john. Okam's razor has a pretty clear answer to that.
Continued in next post ...
