Hurricane Florence - September 2018

[CARIIS]

rachel

s carolina will be implementing one lane opposite direction used out

 

[Jax49]

...HURRICANE AND STORM SURGE WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COASTS OF NORTH AND SOUTH CAROLINA...
5:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 26.4°N 64.1°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 944 mb
Max sustained: 140 mph

 

[CARIIS]

here is the 500 stuff from NHC:

imo the best source it is directly from the scientists that are reading the data as it is coming back from the plane

hese observations suggest that an
eyewall replacement cycle is likely underway

intensity numbers have not changed
so the initial intensity will remain 120 kt for this advisory.

Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter mission is en route

NOAA buoy 41049 located
about 80 nmi north of the eye, has reported tropical-storm-force
winds during the last several hours and seas as high as 23 ft.

upper-level environment is predicted to remain quite
favorable while the storm traverses sea surface temperatures of
around 29C over the next 48 hours.

Additional strengthening is
forecast during this time, but some fluctuations in intensity are
likely due to eyewall replacement cycles.

brings
Florence to near category 5 strength within the next 24 to 36
hours. After 48 hours, a slight increase in southwesterly
shear could result in some weakening,

Florence has accelerated as anticipated

The track forecast
reasoning has not changed much.

A mid-level ridge to the northeast
of Bermuda is expected steer Florence quickly west-northwestward to
northwestward toward the southeast United States coast over the next
2 to 3 days.

By 72 hours, a high pressure ridge building over the
Upper-Midwest and Great Lakes regions is forecast to cause a
significant reduction in Florence's forward speed and the hurricane is predicted to meander over the eastern portions of North or SoutCarolina at days 4 and 5.

Given the amount of uncertainty by day 3, it is important not to focus on the exact forecast track as average NHC errors at days 3, 4, and 5 are about 100, 140 and 180 n mi,

Life-threatening freshwater flooding is likely from a prolonged
and exceptionally heavy rainfall event, which may extend inland over the Carolinas and Mid Atlantic for hundreds of miles

Damaging winds could also
spread well inland into portions of the Carolinas and Virginia.

breakdown of what they think at intervals

INIT 11/0900Z 26.4N 64.1W 120 KT 140 MPH - INIT is like starting the car at the beginning of the trip / It is super important that the model run start at the right location and at the right intensity so it can then think about the rest of the run properly.

Initialization is super important between models in that some INIT more accurately making the whole run more beneficial


12H 145 MPH
24H 150 MPH (kinda surprised here - expected a bigger increase at roughly this timing cycle)

36H 150 MPH
48H 145 MPH
72H 1 130 MPH
96H 50 MPH...INLAND

Gusts 167 mph

Barometric History:

1007 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 30 18:00 GMT 12.9° -19.0° 30 mph 1007 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 30 21:00 GMT 12.9° -19.4° 30 mph 1007 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 00:00 GMT 13.1° -20.4° 30 mph 1007 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 03:00 GMT 13.2° -20.9° 35 mph 1007 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 06:00 GMT 13.4° -21.2° 35 mph 1007 mb otential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 09:00 GMT 13.6° -21.4° 35 mph 1006 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 12:00 GMT 13.7° -21.8° 35 mph 1006 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 15:00 GMT 13.7° -22.7° 35 mph 1006 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 18:00 GMT 13.8° -23.3° 35 mph 1006 mb Potential Tropical Cyclone -
Aug 31 21:00 GMT 13.8° -24.7° 35 mph 1004 mb Tropical Depression -
Sep 1 00:00 GMT 14.0° -25.0° 35 mph 1004 mb Tropical Depression -
Sep 1 03:00 GMT 14.2° -25.5° 35 mph 1004 mb Tropical Depression -
Sep 1 06:00 GMT 14.4° -26.2° 35 mph 1004 mb Tropical Depression -
Sep 1 09:00 GMT 14.5° -26.7° 40 mph 1003 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 1 12:00 GMT 14.6° -27.2° 40 mph 1003 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 1 15:00 GMT 14.8° -27.8° 45 mph 1003 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 1 21:00 GMT 15.6° -29.0° 45 mph 1002 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 2 03:00 GMT 16.0° -30.2° 50 mph 1000 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 2 09:00 GMT 16.5° -31.4° 60 mph 999 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 2 15:00 GMT 17.0° -33.2° 50 mph 1000 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 2 21:00 GMT 17.4° -34.6° 50 mph 1000 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 3 03:00 GMT 17.9° -35.9° 50 mph 1000 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 3 09:00 GMT 18.0° -37.5° 60 mph 999 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 3 15:00 GMT 18.3° -38.7° 65 mph 997 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 3 21:00 GMT 18.6° -39.8° 70 mph 995 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 4 03:00 GMT 18.9° -41.0° 70 mph 995 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 4 09:00 GMT 19.3° -42.0° 70 mph 995 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 4 15:00 GMT 19.7° -42.5° 75 mph 990 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 4 18:50 GMT 20.0° -42.7° 85 mph 984 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 4 21:00 GMT 20.3° -43.2° 85 mph 984 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 5 03:00 GMT 20.7° -43.9° 100 mph 976 mb Hurricane 2
Sep 5 09:00 GMT 21.4° -44.8° 105 mph 976 mb Hurricane 2
Sep 5 12:35 GMT 21.7° -45.2° 120 mph 961 mb Hurricane 3
Sep 5 15:00 GMT 22.0° -45.7° 125 mph 957 mb Hurricane 3
Sep 5 21:00 GMT 22.7° -46.6° 130 mph 953 mb Hurricane 4
Sep 6 03:00 GMT 23.4° -47.2° 125 mph 956 mb Hurricane 3
Sep 6 09:00 GMT 24.1° -47.9° 115 mph 964 mb Hurricane 3
Sep 6 15:00 GMT 24.6° -48.6° 105 mph 975 mb Hurricane 2
Sep 6 21:00 GMT 25.0° -49.6° 80 mph 989 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 7 03:00 GMT 25.1° -49.8° 70 mph 993 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 7 09:00 GMT 25.1° -50.7° 65 mph 996 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 7 15:00 GMT 25.0° -51.8° 65 mph 996 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 7 21:00 GMT 24.8° -52.5° 65 mph 996 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 8 03:00 GMT 24.8° -53.2° 60 mph 999 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 8 09:00 GMT 24.5° -54.2° 65 mph 997 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 8 15:00 GMT 24.5° -54.3° 65 mph 995 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 8 21:00 GMT 24.6° -54.7° 70 mph 989 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 9 03:00 GMT 24.6° -55.2° 70 mph 989 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 9 09:00 GMT 24.5° -55.8° 70 mph 989 mb Tropical Storm -
Sep 9 15:00 GMT 24.4° -56.3° 75 mph 984 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 9 21:00 GMT 24.4° -57.0° 85 mph 975 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 10 03:00 GMT 24.6° -57.7° 90 mph 974 mb Hurricane 1
Sep 10 09:00 GMT 24.9° -58.9° 105 mph 969 mb Hurricane 2


Sep 10 15:00 GMT 25.0° -60.0° 115 mph 962 mb Hurricane 3

Sep 10 16:00 GMT 25.0° -60.2° 130 mph 946 mb Hurricane 4


Sep 10 21:00 GMT 25.4° -61.1° 140 mph 939 mb Hurricane 4
Sep 11 03:00 GMT 25.9° -62.4° 140 mph 944 mb Hurricane 4
Sep 11 09:00 GMT 26.4° -64.1° 140 mph 944 mb Hurrican

Hurricane Florence Forecast Discussion

Here is the link to get info from each boey right around her now

Scroll down to get to this data: Wave Height
Am only coloring it so it easy to find link LATER

NDBC - Observations - Radial Search

I remember the first time i learned about the boey was Ivan and one of em 62 ft it blew my mind and scared the ### out ofme

there was a easier interface on this data back then but i cant recall where it was !

gonna go turn on news - I go thro cycles where I dont want to hear about her -- it is depressing fear of the unknown scares homospaians

We all knew Harvey was gonna stall but it sure as heck was different than the hell the world watched

Native floridian for some reason after the storm surge it confuses me when it does what it did it pours here all the time and it does not end up in images like we saw coming out of Harvey day after day

Frances decided to take a long rest upon the state for ages (days) and nothing like that happened

I wish she would get all her flexing her muscles over with soon -- what I leanred about how they pull up mountains of water and drag it along with them as it relates to wind speed - I learned why storm surge varies so much between each one

do your junk Missie while your way far away and start to lose some winds please - that will make storm surge less intense -- she is a very bad girl

there is even flash junk going on somewhere else now - i guess maybe it is cause were flat??

 

[MaryG12]

cnn her eye is 12 miles across

typical 20 40

think of it as a tight wound up spring compared to one not as tight

throwing wind out

her satellite images are ( sorry to say it this way ) is stunning

just stunning

her

I saw the satellite images, it really is stunning - and incredible.

A reminder that nature's forces are extremely powerful.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Hurricane and storm surge watches were issued for portions of the coasts of the Carolinas Tuesday morning.

The watches extend from Edisto Beach, South Carolina northward to the North Carolina-Virginia border, including the Pamlico and Albemarle Sounds.

Those areas are at risk for hurricane conditions and "life-threatening inundation from rising water moving inland from the coastline" during the next 48 hours, the NHC said.

Hurricane Florence forces more than 1 million people to flee - CNN

 

[CARIIS]

Who does not love Catichore ( how ever you spell his name )

 

[JerseyGirl]

South Carolina - evacuations
Gov. Henry McMaster will order evacuations along South Carolina’s entire 187-mile coastline border starting at noon Tuesday. The evacuations are expected to cover some areas inland prone to flooding, including Berkeley County and parts of Dorchester County. About one out of every five South Carolinians are in the evacuation zones. The eastbound lanes of Interstate 26 heading into Charleston and U.S. 501 into Myrtle Beach will be reversed when the order takes effect, opening all lanes to evacuees.

North Carolina - evacuations
Dare County officials ordered everyone to leave Hatteras Island on Monday. Residents and visitors in popular tourist spots such as Duck and Corolla faced a Tuesday deadline.

Evacuations ordered for SC coast as Hurricane Florence nears, effective Tuesday

Hurricane Florence strengthens to potentially 'catastrophic' Category 4 storm

North and South Carolina, Virginia and Maryland
States of emergency were declared in the Carolinas, Virginia and Maryland. In Maryland, some coastal areas are still recovering from weather.

North Carolina - mandatory evacuations
Six more North Carolina counties were placed under mandatory evacuation Monday night, hours after the first order in Hatteras Island. Certain areas of Brunswick, Currituck, Dare, Hyde, New Hanover, and Onslow counties are affected, and more orders are expected Tuesday.

Virginia - mandatory evacuations
In Virginia, mandatory evacuations begin at 8 a.m. Tuesday for about 245,000 residents in a portion of Hampton Roads and the Eastern Shore area, Gov. Ralph Northam said Monday.

South Carolina - mandatory evacuations
Mandatory evacuation orders take effect Tuesday at noon in eight counties along the state's 187-mile coastline. Starting then, all roads on I-26 and Route 501 will be directed away from the coast, South Carolina Gov. Henry McMaster said.

Hurricane Florence forces more than 1 million people to flee - CNN

 

[Jax49]

Who does not love Catichore ( how ever you spell his name )

Jim Cantore

ETA: Did we mention how cute he is? lol

 

[JerseyGirl]

forgot to add the 5:00 a.m. update photo:

National Hurricane Center (@NHC_Atlantic) | Twitter

 

[Jax49]

...RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FINDS FLORENCE HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY... ...RESTRENGTHENING EXPECTED TO BEGIN LATER TODAY...
8:00 AM AST Tue Sep 11
Location: 26.4°N 64.6°W
Moving: WNW at 15 mph
Min pressure: 950 mb
Max sustained: 130 mph

 

[Inthedetails]

When people are told to evacuate, how far are they told to go? And also, are there shelters set up for people who don't have family/friends to stay with? I recall the stadium in New Orleans for Katrina (not good memories of that disaster) - are there places inland for Florence evacuees to camp out for awhile or is everyone on their own for finding shelter?

I'm on the east coast but not on Florence's projected path. Everyone who is in the path is certainly on my mind.

 

[Hatfield]

Thanks everyone for all the updates. Florence is going to be a doozy.

Prayers for everyone in the affected areas.

The only time I have been in a hurricane was inland about 100 miles and the winds were way down by the time it hit us. It was very interesting though. It was just like they say on TV. First the winds were coming across from one direction and after the eye passed over it got real calm for about 2 hours. Then the winds came in totally the opposite direction. Really bizarre when you are not used to something like that.

We were lucky the winds were only about 50-60 MPH gusts by the time it got to us so far inland.

This one seems like it could really do some damage inland and not just on the coast. Scary. The rainfall total predictions sound really bad and the east coast has been getting lots of rain already so ground is already moist. Could be lots of trees going down and power issues. When the ground is already moist and winds hit then its easier for trees to fall and get uprooted. We had a few trees fall down in normal rain soaked storms so I can see why the weather man talked about that this morning.

Keeping everyone in my thoughts and prayers.

 

[Hatfield]

When people are told to evacuate, how far are they told to go? And also, are there shelters set up for people who don't have family/friends to stay with? I recall the stadium in New Orleans for Katrina (not good memories of that disaster) - are there places inland for Florence evacuees to camp out for awhile or is everyone on their own for finding shelter?

I'm on the east coast but not on Florence's projected path. Everyone who is in the path is certainly on my mind.

Those are good questions and I think the answer is all of the above. There are so many people trying to get motel rooms and stuff and some go farther inland than others. I do think some cities are going to have to open up shelters in school gyms and stuff for people that cant afford motels.

Im not on the East coast but if I was there I would try to go pretty far inland because the forecast looks like this one is going to stall once it hits inland so there could be lots of flooding issues quite a ways inland. I would probably go 2 or 3 states over if I had to evacuate just to be on the safe side. I would hate to go through all the trouble to evacuate and be too close and get flooding issues. May as well go as far as you can inland.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Shelters available in North Carolina:

Beaufort County
As of Monday night, no shelters had been announced. Information and updates can be found on the Beaufort County NC Emergency Services Facebook page.

Bertie County
Shelters will open at Bertie Middle School, West Bertie Elementary and Colerain Elementary. They will open Wednesday afternoon. There will be a countywide curfew issued Wednesday starting at 8 p.m

Carteret County - pet friendly
People who evacuate can seek shelter at Knightdale High School at 100 Bryan Chalk Lane in Knightdale. The shelter is pet friendly. There are no shelters open in the county due to the mandatory evacuation.

Craven County
Four schools will have emergency shelters available: Havelock High School, Brinson Elementary, Ben Quinn Elementary (pet friendly, only cats and dogs) and Farm Life Elementary. All 4 will open on Wednesday, September 12, 2018 at 2 p.m. at the following locations for citizens living in low lying areas prone to flooding who have nowhere else to relocate to:
1. Havelock High School (101 Webb Blvd, Havelock)
2. Brinson Elementary (319 Neuse Forest Ave, New Bern)
3. Benn Quinn Elementary (4275 Martin Luther King Blvd, New Bern) *Pet Friendly*
4. Farm Life Elementary (2000 Farm Life Ave, Vanceboro)

Dare County
No shelters are available due to the mandatory evacuation.

Duplin County
Opening shelters on Wednesday, September 12th, at 5:00pm at the following locations:
- Wallace-Rose Hill High School
- Beulaville Elementary School
- North Duplin High School
- James Kenan High School (pet-friendly location)

Edgecombe County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Edgecombe County Facebook page.

Greene County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Greene County Emergency Services Facebook page.

Hyde County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Hyde County Public Information Facebook Page.

Jones County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Jones County website.

Lenoir County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Lenoir County Emergency Services Facebook page.

Martin County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Martin County Central E911 Emergency Communications Center Facebook page.

Onslow County
Jacksonville Commons Middle School, Dixon Middle School, Richlands High School and Swansboro High School. The approximate opening will be at 2 p.m. This is subject to change based on the reports we receive from the National Weather Service as to timing.

Pamlico County
Pamlico Community College will be a local shelter on a very limited basis starting Wednesday at 5. Below is more information from the Pamlico County Emergency Management Facebook page.

Pitt County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Pitt County Emergency Management Facebook page.

Tyrrell County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Tyrrell County website.

Washington County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Washington County Facebook page and the Washington County website.

Wayne County
No information has been released. Notices will be posted on the Wayne County website.


Shelter information for Eastern N.C. due to Hurricane Florence

 

[JerseyGirl]

If you are planning on going to a shelter:

Bring your own pillows, blankets, medication, hygiene items, special foods, baby formula (if needed) and any other special needs items. There may be times that the shelters are without the ability to support medical devices and equipment.

All pets must be crated. Pet owners need to bring bowls for food and water, food and medications for their pets, and rabies certificates (not the tags). Pet owners will be expected to remain at the shelter with their pet and are responsible for caring for and cleaning up after their pet. Pets will be housed indoors, but in a separate location from shelter occupants.

Citizens are prohibited from bringing weapons, alcohol, illegal drugs, perishable food items, radios or televisions into an emergency shelter. Small hand-held devices can be used with headphones.

Shelter information for Eastern N.C. due to Hurricane Florence

 

[Hatfield]

If you are planning on going to a shelter:

Bring your own pillows, blankets, medication, hygiene items, special foods, baby formula (if needed) and any other special needs items. There may be times that the shelters are without the ability to support medical devices and equipment.

All pets must be crated. Pet owners need to bring bowls for food and water, food and medications for their pets, and rabies certificates (not the tags). Pet owners will be expected to remain at the shelter with their pet and are responsible for caring for and cleaning up after their pet. Pets will be housed indoors, but in a separate location from shelter occupants.

Citizens are prohibited from bringing weapons, alcohol, illegal drugs, perishable food items, radios or televisions into an emergency shelter. Small hand-held devices can be used with headphones.

Shelter information for Eastern N.C. due to Hurricane Florence

Great advice and information. So many things they list that I would have never thought about.

Im wondering if they also lock you in and wont let you leave for certain periods of the storm when its really bad. So you have to be prepared for a long stay in case they dont let people leave.

 

[Inthedetails]

Shelters available in North Carolina:

Shelter information for Eastern N.C. due to Hurricane Florence

Snipped

Thank you, Jersey Girl. I feel better reading the list. It's scary to hear "everyone out!" and then wonder where some people go. I'm comforted that there are provisions for people who don't have a place to go. And I like that some shelters accept pets as I've heard of people refusing to evacuate because of their pets.

Today is 9/11. Knowing people will be helping out other people in a potential natural disaster is comforting. Take care, everyone. Be nice.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Virginia Beach, VA area - Shelters available and recommended evacuations

Virginia Beach officials plan to open shelters Thursday morning at Kellam High School, Corporate Landing Middle School, Old Donation and a medically friendly shelter will be open at the Field House.

If you choose to use a shelter, make sure to bring three to five days worth of essentials.

The City Manager is already recommending evacuations for some of the Virginia Beach community - specifically the areas of Sandbridge and Back Bay.

Virginia Beach plans to open school shelters ahead of Florence

 

[JerseyGirl]

Great advice and information. So many things they list that I would have never thought about.

Im wondering if they also lock you in and wont let you leave for certain periods of the storm when its really bad. So you have to be prepared for a long stay in case they dont let people leave.

I don't think they lock you in, maybe close the doors. It would be a fire hazard to lock people inside, besides, smokers need access to outside the shelter.

 

[JerseyGirl]

Georgia - evacuations and shelters

In Georgia, hotels are expected to fill up quickly. Many hotels around the coast, such as those in Savannah and Brunswick, are either sold out or filling fast.

The River Falls at the Gorge Campground in Rabun County in north Georgia has already seen evacuees arrive, and expects to receive many more.

Some areas like Bibb County in central Georgia are considering opening shelters, which many counties and cities did to house thousands of evacuees from Hurricane Irma almost exactly one year ago. So far, Bibb County officials are watching and waiting but have not opened a shelter yet.

In Augusta, Ga., emergency workers said they would open shelters if the situation calls for it.

As evacuees flee Hurricane Florence’s wrath, Georgia is preparing hotels and campgrounds